Persistência inflacionária e curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana para o Brasil

Inflation persistence and new Keynesian Phillips curves for Brazil. In this paper is shown that sustainable inflation persistence has theoretical support not only due price indexation, but also because of micro-foundations based on assumptions of Simon's bounded rationality and because of persistent mark-up shocks. the new keynesian phillips curve, estimated for brazil for the period 2000/2008, and the partial coefficients of determination for moving sub-periods of 36 months identifies inflation persistence as the main determinant of inflation, with the capacity gap presenting larger importance only in the end of the sample period. Inflation persistence requires harder monetary policy when neither accommodation is acceptable nor complementary policies in order to reduce it, such as the minimization of indexation mechanisms and control of the market power, are adopted.

Notas críticas sobre a macroeconomia novo-Keynesiana

This article shows that, in spite of its great steps towards reality, new-Keynesian macroeconomics seems to be a non-systematic construction with problems originated from "ad hoc" hypothesis required to explain the non neutrality of money and the existence of disequilibria in the short run. In particular, it seems that prices and wages rigidities stand in sandy bases and that the derivation of the IS and LM curves from neoclassical fundamentals is problematic. Even disregarding the apparent difficulties of the neoclassical theory of value and distribution, the new-Keynesian connections between interest rate, money, and output do not seem fully consistent.

Symphysis-fundal height curve in the diagnosis of fetal growth deviations

OBJECTIVE: To validate a new symphysis-fundal curve for screening fetal growth deviations and to compare its performance with the standard curve adopted by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: Observational study including a total of 753 low-risk pregnant women with gestational age above 27 weeks between March to October 2006 in the city of João Pessoa, Northeastern Brazil. Symphisys-fundal was measured using a standard technique recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Estimated fetal weight assessed through ultrasound using the Brazilian fetal weight chart for gestational age was the gold standard. A subsample of 122 women with neonatal weight measurements was taken up to seven days after estimated fetal weight measurements and symphisys-fundal classification was compared with Lubchenco growth reference curve as gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The McNemar χ2 test was used for comparing sensitivity of both symphisys-fundal curves studied. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the new curve for detecting small for gestational age fetuses was 51.6% while that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health reference curve was significantly lower (12.5%). In the subsample using neonatal weight as gold standard, the sensitivity of the new reference curve was 85.7% while that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health was 42.9% for detecting small for gestational age. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic performance of the new curve for detecting small for gestational age fetuses was significantly higher than that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health reference curve.

New-consensus macroeconomic governance in a Keynesian world, and the Keynesian alternative

The paper presents both the New Consensus and Keynesian equilibrium within the usual four competitive macro-markets structure. It gives theoretical explanations of the pernicious effects that the NCM governance, which has been designed for ergodic stationary regimes, brings about in Keynesian non-ergodic regimes. It put forward Keynesian principles of governance which include monetary, budgetary and fiscal instruments, and suggest new directions for the positive and normative analysis of macro-policies.

The role of the New Trauma and Injury Severity Score (NTRISS) for survival prediction

The objective of this study was to verify if replacing the Injury Severity Score (ISS) by the New Injury Severity Score (NISS) in the original Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) form would improve the survival rate estimation. This retrospective study was performed in a level I trauma center during one year. ROC curve was used to identify the best indicator (TRISS or NTRISS) for survival probability prediction. Participants were 533 victims, with a mean age of 38±16 years. There was predominance of motor vehicle accidents (61.9%). External injuries were more frequent (63.0%), followed by head/neck injuries (55.5%). Survival rate was 76.9%. There is predominance of ISS scores ranging from 9-15 (40.0%), and NISS scores ranging from 16-24 (25.5%). Survival probability equal to or greater than 75.0% was obtained for 83.4% of the victims according to TRISS, and for 78.4% according to NTRISS. The new version (NTRISS) is better than TRISS for survival prediction in trauma patients.

Soil Compaction Curve of an Oxisol Under Sugarcane Planted After In-row Deep Tillage

ABSTRACT Soil tillage that maintains the productivity of sugarcane plantations, providing an area for the root development and without traffic on crop rows, has given rise to new technologies in rural areas. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the soil physical properties in two sugarcane plantations, one of which was prepared with deep tilling and the other with conventional tillage. The experiment was conducted in Lençóis Paulista, São Paulo State. Soil penetration resistance and relative density were analyzed. The cone index was lower in deep-tilled soil without traffic in all layers, than in deep-tilled soil with traffic and in conventional tillage. In both tillage treatments, the relative density values were acceptable in the 0.00-0.15 m soil layer, but considered detrimental for sugarcane development in the 0.15-0.30 and 0.30-0.45 m layers.

New thermal inducible Streptomyces phages isolated from tropical soils

Two new Streptomyces phages, øBP1 and øBP2, were isolated from tropical soil samples. These phages presented a large host range and developed both lytic and lysogenic responses in different Streptomyces species tested. Variations in the incubation temperature showed to be important in the development of the replication cycle. Increasing incubation temperature from 30oC to 42oC induced the lytic response of øBP2 and lysogenic of øBP1 in the host strain Streptomyces sp. WL6. øBP1 and øBP2 have icosahedral heads with long tails and were characterized in relation to morphology, G + C content, genome size and adsorption curve

The search for circadian clock components in humans: new perspectives for association studies

Individual circadian clocks entrain differently to environmental cycles (zeitgebers, e.g., light and darkness), earlier or later within the day, leading to different chronotypes. In human populations, the distribution of chronotypes forms a bell-shaped curve, with the extreme early and late types _ larks and owls, respectively _ at its ends. Human chronotype, which can be assessed by the timing of an individual's sleep-wake cycle, is partly influenced by genetic factors - known from animal experimentation. Here, we review population genetic studies which have used a questionnaire probing individual daily timing preference for associations with polymorphisms in clock genes. We discuss their inherent limitations and suggest an alternative approach combining a short questionnaire (Munich ChronoType Questionnaire, MCTQ), which assesses chronotype in a quantitative manner, with a genome-wide analysis (GWA). The advantages of these methods in comparison to assessing time-of-day preferences and single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping are discussed. In the future, global studies of chronotype using the MCTQ and GWA may also contribute to understanding the influence of seasons, latitude (e.g., different photoperiods), and climate on allele frequencies and chronotype distribution in different populations.

MFG-E8, a clearance glycoprotein of apoptotic cells, as a new marker of disease severity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Milk fat globule epidermal growth factor 8 (MFG-E8) is an opsonin involved in the phagocytosis of apoptotic cells. In patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), apoptotic cell clearance is defective. However, whether aberrant MFG-E8 expression is involved in this defect is unknown. In this study, we examined the expression of MFG-E8 in COPD patients. MFG-E8, interleukin (IL)-1β and transforming growth factor (TGF)-β levels were measured in the plasma of 96 COPD patients (93 males, 3 females; age range: 62.12±10.39) and 87 age-matched healthy controls (85 males, 2 females; age range: 64.81±10.11 years) using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Compared with controls, COPD patients had a significantly lower plasma MFG-E8 levels (P<0.01) and significantly higher plasma TGF-β levels (P=0.002), whereas there was no difference in plasma IL-1β levels between the two groups. Moreover, plasma MFG-E8 levels decreased progressively between Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) I and GOLD IV stage COPD. Multiple regression analysis showed that the forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1 % predicted) and smoking habit were powerful predictors of MFG-E8 in COPD (P<0.01 and P=0.026, respectively). MFG-E8 was positively associated with the FEV1 % predicted and negatively associated with smoking habit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.874 (95% confidence interval: 0.798-0.95; P<0.01). Our findings demonstrated the utility of MFG-E8 as a marker of disease severity in COPD and that cigarette smoke impaired MFG-E8 expression in these patients.

An account of new developmentalism and its structuralist macroeconomics

This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate.