Economic analysis of an agrosilvipastoral system for a mountainous area in Zona da Mata Mineira, Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic viability of an agrosilvipastoral system developed for Zona da Mata mountainous areas in Minas Gerais state, Brazil, as well as to compare different options for wood (Eucalyptus grandis and Acacia mangium) commercialization of the second thinning. The data were obtained from a 10 year-old agrosilvipastoral system established in four hectares at Embrapa Gado de Leite station in Coronel Pacheco, MG, Brazil. As evaluation criteria for the economic viability analysis, the adopted methods were the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR), both calculated at 6% interest rate. Despite the small difference, adding value to forest products increased the attractiveness of the proposed system. Considered separately, the agricultural activity was impracticable, whereas the forestry and livestock activities were independently viable. The studied system seems to be equally tolerant to price variations for forest and livestock products, as well as strongly tolerant to variations in production costs.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Technical-economic analysis of different lighting systems for broiler poultry

ABSTRACT Broiler poultry is highly dependent on artificial lightening. Power consumption costs of artificial lighting systems is the second largest expense related to broiler industry, second only to feed expenses. Therefore, the current study focused to analyze technical and economic feasibility of replacing incandescent lamps already used in aviaries with other lamp types. Costs related to power consumption, implementation and maintenance of the lighting systems were evaluated with the aid of financial mathematics using net present value, return over investment and payback. Systems composed of six lamp types were analyzed in two different configurations to meet the minimum illuminance of 5 and 20 lux and for use in conventional sheds and dark house. The lamps tested were incandescent (LI) of 100 W, compact fluorescent (CFL) of 34 W, mixed (ML) 160 W sodium vapor (SVL) of 70 W, tubular fluorescent T8 (TFL T8) of 40 W and tubular fluorescent T5 (TFL T5) of 28 W. For the systems tested, it was found that the tubular fluorescent lamps T8 and T5 showed the best results of technical and economic feasibility.

Uso do VPA: uma ferramenta melhor para a avaliação de operações

Uma das práticas mais difundidas para a avaliação de ativos operacionais é o fluxo de caixa descontado, ou FCD. Contudo, uma das versões mais comumente aceitas de FCD, o custo médio ponderado de capital, ou WACC no original inglês, tornou-se obsoleta. Este artigo discute uma metodologia alternativa ao WACC, chamada de VPA (valor presente ajustado), ou APV (adjusted present value), em inglês. O artigo mostra que essa metodologia apresenta vantagens superiores quando comparada ao WACC, especificamente pelo fato de oferecer mais informações de relevância administrativa, a um índice menor de erro, ajudando os executivos a analisar não só quanto vale um ativo, mas também a origem de seu valor.

Rootstocks resistant to Meloidogyne incognita and compatibility of grafting in net melon

Due to the few studies about grafting in net melon, in order to obtain better control of soil pathogens, the aim of the present study was to evaluate 16 genotypes of Cucurbitaceae: Benincasa hispida, Luffa cylindrica, pumpkin 'Jacarezinho', pumpkin 'Menina Brasileira', squash 'Exposição', squash 'Coroa', pumpkin 'Canhão Seca', pumpkin 'Squash', pumpkin 'Enrrugado Verde', pumpkin 'Mini Paulista', pumpkin 'Goianinha', watermelon 'Charleston Gray', melon 'Rendondo Gaucho', melon 'Redondo Amarelo', cucumber 'Caipira HS' and cucumber 'Caipira Rubi', regarding to compatibility of grafting in net melon and resistance to Meloidogyne incognita, based on the reproduction factor (RF), according to Oostenbrink (1966). To assess resistance, the seedlings were transplanted to ceramic pots and inoculated with 300/mL eggs and/or second stage juveniles of M. incognita. At 50 days after transplanting, the plants were removed from the pots and the resistance was evaluated. The compatibility between resistant rootstock and grafts of net melon was determined by performing simple cleft grafting, in a commercial net melon hybrid of great market acceptance and susceptible to M. incognita (Bonus no. 2). The genotypes Luffa cylindrica, pumpkin 'Goianinha', pumpkin 'Mini-Paulista', melon 'Redondo Amarelo', watermelon 'Charleston Gray' are resistant to the nematode M. incognita. The better compatibilities occurred with the rootstocks melon 'Amarelo', which presented 100% of success, followed by pumpkin 'Mini-Paulista' with 94%. On the other hand, Sponge gourd, watermelon 'Charleston Gray' and pumpkin 'Goianinha' showed low graft take percentages of 66%, 62% and 50%, respectively.

Sponsoring, brand value and social media

The increasing involvement of individuals in social media over the past decade has enabled firms to pursue new avenues in communication and sponsoring activities. Besides general research on either social media or sponsoring, questions regarding the consequences of a joint activity (sponsoring activities in social media) remain unexplored. Hence, the present study analyses whether the perceived image of the brand and the celebrity endorser credibility of a top sports team influence the perceived brand value of the sponsoring firm in a social media setting. Moreover, these effects are compared between existing customers and non-customers of the sponsoring firm. Interestingly, perceived celebrity endorser credibility plays no role in forming brand value perceptions in the case of the existing customers. Implications for marketing theory and practice are derived.

Evaluation of the diagnostic value of the tourniquet test in predicting severe dengue cases in a population from Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Introduction Dengue is prevalent in many tropical and sub-tropical regions. The clinical diagnosis of dengue is still complex, and not much data are available. This work aimed at assessing the diagnostic accuracy of the tourniquet test in patients with suspected dengue infection and its positivity in different classifications of this disease as reported to the Information System for Notifiable Disease in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil between 2001 and 2006. Methods Cross-section analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of the tourniquet test for dengue, using IgM-anti-DENV ELISA as a gold standard. Results We selected 9,836 suspected cases, of which 41.1% were confirmed to be dengue. Classic dengue was present in 95.8%, dengue with complications in 2.5% and dengue hemorrhagic fever in 1.7%. The tourniquet test was positive in 16.9% of classic dengue cases, 61.7% of dengue cases with complications and 82.9% of cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. The sensitivity and specificity of the tourniquet test were 19.1% and 86.4%, respectively. Conclusions A positive tourniquet test can be a valuable tool to support diagnosis of dengue where laboratory tests are not available. However, the absence of a positive test should not be read as the absence of infection. In addition, the tourniquet test was demonstrated to be an indicator of dengue severity.

Estudos químico-agrícolas sôbre o enxofre

1. Analyses of soluble sulphates in 2 N ammonium chloride extracts of 24 samples of soils of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, S. A., showed a sulphur content varying from 0,0013 g per 100 g (found in the b layer of a genuine "terra roxa") to 0,007 g per 100 g of soil (b layer of a soil of depression without definite characteristics). (The results are expressed as elemental sulphur). Determinations of total sulphur in 56 samples of soils of the same state using the method of fusion with sodium carbonate and sodium nitrate revealed 0.007 g of elemental S per 100 g of soil as the lowest value (found in several soil types) and 0.096 g as the highest one (found in the b layer of an ar-quean soil). Apparently soluble sulphates accumulate in the upper layers and total sulphur does the opposite. It was found a strong correlation between total S and carbon content. 2. Under laboratory conditions, in a compost of fresh soil, powdered sulphur and apatite, it was verified after a three months period of incubation that the pH value lowered from 6.30 to 3.23; the citric acid solubility of apatite increased to 271.1 per cent of the original one. Lupinus sp. grown in soil manured with sulphur and apatite has showed fresh and dry weights higher than the plants in control pots; the results are significant at 5% level of probability; phosphorus content is also higher in the manured plants. It was observed a net influence of the apatite plus sulphur treatment on the weight of root nodosities that was four times greater than in the control plants. 3. Nearly five hundred determinations of S, N and P were carried out in 35 species of plants cultivated in the state of São Paulo. A great variation in the amounts of these elements was observed. As a general rule, the leaves contain more sulphur than the stems and roots show the lowest percentages. The conjunct roots and stem of guar (Cyamopsis psoraloides) revealed only 0.019 per cent sulphur; the leaves of kale showed the highest sulphur content, i. e., 2.114%. Apparently there is no correlation between the amounts of S, N and P. The ratio S/N increases from 0.006 (guar) to 0.485 (kale). The ratio S/P, always higher than the corresponding S/N, increases from 0.082 (guar) to 6.381 (older leaves of tomato plants). It is interesting to mention that several among the most important crops in the state of São Paulo namely, cotton, rice, coffee and sugar cane contain more sulphur than phosphorus. 4. Tomato plants cultivated in nutrient solution lacking sulphur showed the following visual symptons of deficiency : chlorosis first in the younger leaves and afterwards in all the leaves; anthocyanin pigments in the petioles and stems; absence of fruits; primary roots stunted and secondary ones longer than in the control plants; stems slender, hard, woody. The histological study of petioles suffering from sulphur deficiency revealed anthocyanin in the parenchyme layer instead of clo-rophyll pigments observed in normal petioles; in the chlorotic leaves the large chloroplasts present only the stroma but the small ones have a little amount of green pigments. Chemical analysis revealed in the abnormal plants : less sulphur and an increased proportion of phosphorus; older leaves contain more sulphur and less phosphorus than the younger ones probably due to physiological difficulties in translocation of sulphur bearing material; increased amount of total N attributed to accumulation of nitrates; marked decrease in ash, sugars and starch; increased proportion of crude fiber and dry material. In the plants suffering from sulphur deficiency photosyntetic rate decreased 34 per cent. 5. Tomato plants were succesfully cultivated in nutrient solution in absence of mineral sulphur but in presence of cysteine. The plants absorbed sulphur, under that form and were able to grow up quite well; the fruiting was normal. In this way rested cleary demonstrated the possibility of absorption of organic sulphur without previous mineralization and its utilization in the building up of protein molecules.

Beyond sepsis pathophysiology with cytokines: what is their value as biomarkers for disease severity?

Sepsis is a major challenge in medicine. It is a common and frequently fatal infectious condition. The incidence continues to increase, with unacceptably high mortality rates, despite the use of specific antibiotics, aggressive operative intervention, nutritional support, and anti-inflammatory therapies. Typically, septic patients exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity due to variables such as age, weight, gender, the presence of secondary disease, the state of the immune system, and the severity of the infection. We are at urgent need for biomarkers and reliable measurements that can be applied to risk stratification of septic patients and that would easily identify those patients at the highest risk of a poor outcome. Such markers would be of fundamental importance to decision making for early intervention therapy or for the design of septic clinical trials. In the present work, we will review current biomarkers for sepsis severity and especially the use of cytokines as biomarkers with important pathophysiological role.