Economic analysis of an agrosilvipastoral system for a mountainous area in Zona da Mata Mineira, Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic viability of an agrosilvipastoral system developed for Zona da Mata mountainous areas in Minas Gerais state, Brazil, as well as to compare different options for wood (Eucalyptus grandis and Acacia mangium) commercialization of the second thinning. The data were obtained from a 10 year-old agrosilvipastoral system established in four hectares at Embrapa Gado de Leite station in Coronel Pacheco, MG, Brazil. As evaluation criteria for the economic viability analysis, the adopted methods were the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR), both calculated at 6% interest rate. Despite the small difference, adding value to forest products increased the attractiveness of the proposed system. Considered separately, the agricultural activity was impracticable, whereas the forestry and livestock activities were independently viable. The studied system seems to be equally tolerant to price variations for forest and livestock products, as well as strongly tolerant to variations in production costs.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Technical-economic analysis of different lighting systems for broiler poultry

ABSTRACT Broiler poultry is highly dependent on artificial lightening. Power consumption costs of artificial lighting systems is the second largest expense related to broiler industry, second only to feed expenses. Therefore, the current study focused to analyze technical and economic feasibility of replacing incandescent lamps already used in aviaries with other lamp types. Costs related to power consumption, implementation and maintenance of the lighting systems were evaluated with the aid of financial mathematics using net present value, return over investment and payback. Systems composed of six lamp types were analyzed in two different configurations to meet the minimum illuminance of 5 and 20 lux and for use in conventional sheds and dark house. The lamps tested were incandescent (LI) of 100 W, compact fluorescent (CFL) of 34 W, mixed (ML) 160 W sodium vapor (SVL) of 70 W, tubular fluorescent T8 (TFL T8) of 40 W and tubular fluorescent T5 (TFL T5) of 28 W. For the systems tested, it was found that the tubular fluorescent lamps T8 and T5 showed the best results of technical and economic feasibility.

Modified broken rice starch as fat substitute in sausages

The demand for low-fat beef products has led the food industry to use fat substitutes such as modified starch. About 14% of broken rice is generated during processing. Nevertheless, this by-product contains high levels of starch; being therefore, great raw material for fat substitution. This study evaluated the applicability of chemically and physically modified broken rice starch as fat substitute in sausages. Extruded and phosphorylated broken rice was used in low-fat sausage formulation. All low-fat sausages presented about 55% reduction in the fat content and around 28% reduction in the total caloric value. Fat replacement with phosphorylated and extruded broken rice starch increased the texture acceptability of low-fat sausages, when compared to low-fat sausages with no modified broken rice. Results suggest that modified broken rice can be used as fat substitute in sausage formulations, yielding lower caloric value products with acceptable sensory characteristics.

Microbiological and physicochemical characterization of surimi obtained from waste of piramutaba fillet

The aim of this work was to perform the microbiological and physicochemical characterization of surimi made from waste of piramutaba filleting. The results of physicochemical characterization of the waste and surimi were: moisture (76.37 and 79.11%), total lipids (5.35 and 0.74%), proteins (14.92 and 10.79%), ash (3.03 and 2.35%), pH (6.9 and 7.4), caloric value (109.15 and 77.86 kcal.g-1), and water activity (both 0.98), respectively. The results of the levels of total volatile bases were 7.29 mgN/100-1 g (waste) and 7.01% carbohydrate (surimi). The values of total lipids and proteins were reduced during the preparation of surimi, probably due to successive washes during the processing. Waste and surimi were examined microbiologically and are in compliance with required parameters. The results show a loss of red (a* parameter) and yellow (b* parameter) color. On the other hand, the L* parameter (lightness) increased after the processing of surimi. It can be concluded that piramutaba waste can be used for surimi preparation and as a source of nutrients for human consumption, providing an alternative use of these wastes avoiding their disposal polluting the environment.

Stability of cassava flour-based food bars

The consumption of Brazilian cassava has been reduced due to a lack of adjustment to the modern lifestyle. To reverse this trend, new products could be developed specifically targeted to high-value niche markets. Cereal bars stand out as fast food high in nutritional value. A bar formula mimicking cereal bars was prepared using a mixture of Brazilian cassava flour, hydrogenated vegetable fat, dried bananas, ground cashew nuts, and glucose syrup. After being pressed, the bars were dried for 1 hour at 65 °C, packaged in films, and stored under ambient conditions. Its stability was continuously monitored for 210 days in order to ensure its safety and enable its introduction to the market. Texture loss was observed in the packed bars after 90 days of storage, but the sensory characteristics allowed the testers to perceive this tendency after only 30 days of storage. However, chemical, physical, and microbial analyses confirmed that the bars were safe for consumption for 180 days. The results showed that a 45 g cassava flour-based bar enriched with nuts and dried fruits can meet 6% of the recommended daily fiber intake with a caloric value between that of the common cereal bar and that of an energy bar. Adapting the formula with ingredients (fruits, nuts) from different regions of Brazil may add value to this traditional product as a fast food.

Diagnostic value of copper parameters to predict growth of suckling calves grazing native range in Argentina

A study was conducted to evaluate the predictive diagnostic value of different copper (Cu) parameters as indicators of average daily gain (ADG) in growing calves. The effects in calves of cow Cu supplementation in the last one-third gestation period were also evaluated. Five supplementation trials, with a total of 300 calves, were carried out. Two groups of 30 calves were randomly assigned to each trial, one group was parenterally supplemented (SG) and the other was not supplemented (NSG). Trials began when calves were three-month-old and ended at weaning time. At each sampling calves were weighed and blood was taken to determine Cu concentrations in plasma, Whole Blood (WB), Red Cells (RC) and Packed Cell Volume (PCV). Liver samples from six animals of each group were taken both at the beginning and at the end of the trial. In two trials the mothers of the SG received Cu supplementation at the last one- third gestation period. Four of the five trials exhibited low ADG in the NSGs. In these groups, plasma Cu concentration decreased rapidly before low ADG was detected, which occurred with values remaining below 25µg/dl. The decrease of RC Cu concentration was considerably slow. WB showed an intermediate position. PCV in the SGs was higher than in the NSGs in all trials. Cow supplementation was insufficient to generate a liver storage able to last after calves reached the 3 months of age. These data could be useful to predict the risk of low ADG in grazing calves.

Sensory evaluation and nutritional value of cakes prepared with whole flaxseed flour

The objective of this study was to evaluate the nutritional value, the oxidative stabilitiy, and consumer acceptance of cakes containing four different concentrations of flaxseed flour (5, 15, 30 and 45%) as partial replacement for wheat flour. The oxidative stability of polyunsaturated fatty acids was evaluated through the lipid peroxidation test (TBARS) in the flour and cakes. Linolenic acid was determined by gas chromatography as well as contents of protein, lipid, ash, and dietary fiber. Consumer acceptance was assessed using a structured hedonic scale of nine points. The oxidative stability of lipid flaxseeds was not affected by the heat treatment during flour processing and cake baking. Cakes made with 5, 15, and 30% of flaxseed flour, the most accepted by consumers, had dietary fiber levels ranging from 3.5 to 6.2 g and linolenic acid ranging from 445 to 2,500 mg.100 g-1 of the product. The cakes received claims of good and excellent source of dietary fiber and linolenic acid, respectively, both are bioactive compounds. The use of up to 30% of flaxseed flour in the preparation of cakes is a useful strategy to optimize the consumption of food rich in functional ingredients.

The effect of a diet education with six iso-caloric meals on the body weight and blood glucose of diabetes type 2 patients

The treatment of Diabetes should not only be sought through drug administration; diet is also a part of its treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of a diet with six meals having equal calories on the body weight and blood glucose on diabetes type 2 patients. This research is an Experimental study conducted in 2009 on 181 patients with diabetes. The patients visited the IDSF (Iranian Diabetes Society of Fars) weekly and the patients to be studied were randomly divided into two groups of 85 and 96 patients, respectively. The participants were repeatedly requested to consume their calculated calorie in six equal parts. The average age in the Experimental and Control groups were 51.2 ± 13.3 and 53.1 ± 9.4, respectively. The mean body weight and fasting blood glucose at the beginning of the study in Experimental and Control groups were 66.3 ± 9.4 and 69.1 ± 11.1 kg, 198.9 ± 35.1, and 199.8 ± 39.1 mg.dL-1, respectively. At the end of the study, however, the values were 63.5 ± 7.5 and 66.98 ± 9 kg, 139.5 ± 34.6 and 164.2 ± 22.1 mg.dL-1, respectively. Only the mean fasting blood glucose at the end of the study revealed a significant difference (p-value = 0.001). The results show that educating those afflicted with Diabetes Type 2 aiming at changing their diet can greatly help them manage their blood glucose.