66 resultados para negative binomial

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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OBJECTIVE: To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.

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Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.

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Introduction Since the launch of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis, more than 70% of the endemic countries have implemented mass drug administration (MDA) to interrupt disease transmission. The monitoring of filarial infection in sentinel populations, particularly schoolchildren, is recommended to assess the impact of MDA. A key issue is choosing the appropriate tools for these initial assessments (to define the best intervention) and for monitoring transmission. Methods This study compared the pre-MDA performance of five diagnostic methods, namely, thick film test, Knott's technique, filtration, Og4C3-ELISA, and the AD12-ICT card test, in schoolchildren from Brazil. Venous and capillary blood samples were collected between 11 pm and 1 am. The microfilarial loads were analyzed with a negative binomial regression, and the prevalence and associated 95% confidence intervals were estimated for all methods. The accuracies of the AD12-ICT card and Og4C3-ELISA tests were assessed against the combination of parasitological test results. Results A total of 805 schoolchildren were examined. The overall and stratified prevalence by age group and gender detected by Og4C3-ELISA and AD12-ICT were markedly higher than the prevalence estimated by the parasitological methods. The sensitivity of the AD12-ICT card and Og4C3-ELISA tests was approximately 100%, and the positive likelihood ratios were above 6. The specificity of the Og4C3-ELISA was higher than that of the AD12-ICT at different prevalence levels. Conclusions The ICT card test should be the recommended tool for monitoring school-age populations living in areas with ongoing or completed MDA.

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Introduction The control of bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big challenge for China. Methods Negative binomial multivariable regression was used to study relationships between meteorological variables and the occurrence of BD during the period of 2006-2012. Results Each 1°C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 3.60% (95%CI, 3.03% to 4.18%) in the monthly number of BD cases, whereas a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of BD cases by 2.85% (95%CI = 3.34% to 2.37% decrease). Conclusions Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of BD in Guangzhou.

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AbstractINTRODUCTION:Studies that generate information that may reduce the dengue death risk are essential. This study analyzed time trends and risk factors for dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil from 2001 to 2011.METHODS:Time trends for dengue mortality and fatality rates were analyzed using simple linear regression. Associations between the dengue mortality and the case fatality rates and socioeconomic, demographic, and health care indicators at the municipality level were analyzed using negative binomial regression.RESULTS:The dengue hemorrhagic fever case fatality rate increased in Brazil from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.67; p=0.036), in patients aged 0-14 years (β=0.48; p=0.030) and in those aged ≥15 years (β=1.1; p<0.01). Factors associated with the dengue case fatality rate were the average income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.038) and the number of basic health units per population (MRR=0.89; p<0.001). Mortality rates increased from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.350; p=0.002).Factors associated with mortality were inequality (RR=1.02; p=0.001) high income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.005), and higher proportions of populations living in urban areas (MRR=1.01; p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS:The increases in the dengue mortality and case fatality rates and the associated socioeconomic and health care factors, suggest the need for structural and intersectoral investments to improve living conditions and to sustainably reduce these outcomes.

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The distribution of psychiatric disorders and of chronic medical illnesses was studied in a population-based sample to determine whether these conditions co-occur in the same individual. A representative sample (N = 1464) of adults living in households was assessed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, version 1.1, as part of the São Paulo Epidemiological Catchment Area Study. The association of sociodemographic variables and psychological symptoms regarding medical illness multimorbidity (8 lifetime somatic conditions) and psychiatric multimorbidity (15 lifetime psychiatric disorders) was determined by negative binomial regression. A total of 1785 chronic medical conditions and 1163 psychiatric conditions were detected in the population concentrated in 34.1 and 20% of respondents, respectively. Subjects reporting more psychiatric disorders had more medical illnesses. Characteristics such as age range (35-59 years, risk ratio (RR) = 1.3, and more than 60 years, RR = 1.7), being separated (RR = 1.2), being a student (protective effect, RR = 0.7), being of low educational level (RR = 1.2) and being psychologically distressed (RR = 1.1) were determinants of medical conditions. Age (35-59 years, RR = 1.2, and more than 60 years, RR = 0.5), being retired (RR = 2.5), and being psychologically distressed (females, RR = 1.5, and males, RR = 1.4) were determinants of psychiatric disorders. In conclusion, psychological distress and some sociodemographic features such as age, marital status, occupational status, educational level, and gender are associated with psychiatric and medical multimorbidity. The distribution of both types of morbidity suggests the need of integrating mental health into general clinical settings.

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OBJECTIVE To assess the increased diagnostic yield for pulmonary tuberculosis using bronchial washing cultures compared with sputum cultures. METHODS Study conducted with 61 adults in Lima, Peru, from January 2006 to December 2007. The yield of sputum cultures was compared with the yield of acid-fast bacilli smears and cultures of bronchial washing for diagnosing pulmonary tuberculosis in suspected cases of clinical tuberculosis with negative acid fast bacilli sputum smears. RESULTS Twenty seven (95%CI 32;58) of the cases were eventually diagnosed with smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis. Bronchial washing samples detected 23 (95%CI 72;99) of the smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis cases compared with 15 (95%CI 37;74) for sputum cultures (p = 0.02). The incremental diagnostic yield of acid fast bacilli smear and culture of bronchial washing specimens over sputum culture was 44% (95%CI 25;65). CONCLUSIONS In function of the epidemiological context and the resources available, bronchoscopy should be deployed as part of a comprehensive work up that optimizes smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosis and minimizes risk and costs.

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Active infection by T. gondii was evaluated by immunoassay for soluble SAG-1 (p30), the major surface antigen from T. gondii, specific antibodies and immune complexes in human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples. A total of 263 samples of CSF were collected from hospitalized patients presenting neurological disorders and analyzed for antibodies to HIV. Patients were divided into two groups: HIV positive (n = 96) or HIV negative (n =167). The results of the assays showed that 45% of all samples were positive for soluble SAG-1. Toxoplasma Ag/Ab immune complexes were detected in 19% of the CSF samples and 62% were positive for T. gondii- specific IgG. A combination of these assays in the presence of clinical findings consistent with active Toxoplasma infection may predict the presence of toxoplasmic encephalitis. Moreover, detection of soluble SAG-1 in the CSF of these individuals appears consistent with active infection.

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Candida dubliniensis is a new, recently described species of yeast. This emerging oral pathogen shares many phenotypic and biochemical characteristics with C. albicans, making it hard to differentiate between them, although they are genotypically distinct. In this study, PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) was used to investigate the presence of C. dubliniensis in samples in a culture collection, which had been isolated from HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients with oral erythematous candidiasis. From a total of 37 samples previously identified as C. albicans by the classical method, two samples of C. dubliniensis (5.4%) were found through the use of PCR. This study underscores the presence of C. dubliniensis, whose geographical and epidemiological distribution should be more fully investigated.

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INTRODUCTION: Cryptococcosis has become an important entity due to the epidemic of AIDS and therefore it is a significant opportunistic infection. However, there are case reports of cryptococcal meningitis in immune competent pregnant women. Since pregnancy is considered a period of relative immunosuppression, which likely prevents fetal rejection, this could explain the occurrence of opportunistic infections. OBJECTIVE: To report a case of cryptococcosis, and review all cases involving pregnancy and neurocryptococcal infection in immune competent pregnant patients. METHODS: Case report and systematic review of the literature using the MEDLINE and SciELO databases. DISCUSSION: A total of 27 patients were analyzed from 19 studies. The mean age at diagnosis was 26.4 years. There were six patients in their first trimester of pregnancy, 10 in the second, eight in the third and three post-partum. The most prevalent symptoms were headache (85.2%), altered vision (44.4%), altered mental status (44.4%), nausea (40.7%) and fever (33.3%). There were nine deaths (33.3%). Most of the patients received intravenous amphotericin B as treatment (77.8%). The majority (66.6%) of the patients accomplished a term delivery with healthy infants. CONCLUSION: Cryptococcal meningitis should be considered during pregnancy in cases of unexplained headache, altered vision, altered mental status, nausea and fever. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis should be admitted and treated with amphotericin B.

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Antibacterial effects of aqueous and ethanolic extracts of seeds of moringa (Moringa oleifera) and pods of soursop (Annona muricata) in the concentration of 1:5 and 1:10 in volumes 50, 100, 150 and 200 µL were examined against Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio cholerae, Escherichia coli (isolated from the organism and the aquatic environment) and Salmonella Enteritidis. Antibacterial activity (inhibition halo > 13 mm) against S. aureus, V. cholerae and E. coli isolated from the whiteleg shrimp, Litopenaeus vannmaei, was detected in aqueous and ethanolic extracts of moringa. E. coli isolated from tilapiafish, Oreochromis niloticus, was sensitive to the ethanolic extract of moringa. The aqueous extracts of soursop showed an antibacterial effect against S. aureus and V. cholerae, but the antibacterial activity by the ethanol extracts of this plant was not demonstrated.

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With the aim of identifying the etiology of acute febrile illness in patients suspected of having dengue, yet with non reagent serum, a descriptive study was conducted with 144 people using secondary serum samples collected during convalescence. The study was conducted between January and May of 2008. All the exams were re-tested for dengue, which was confirmed in 11.8% (n = 17); the samples that remained negative for dengue (n = 127) were tested for rubella, with 3.9% (n = 5) positive results. Among those non reactive for rubella (n = 122), tests were made for leptospirosis and hantavirus. Positive tests for leptospirosis were 13.9% (n = 17) and none for hantavirus. Non reactive results (70.8%) were considered as Indefinite Febrile Illness (IFI). Low schooling was statistically associated with dengue, rubella and leptospirosis (p = 0.009), dyspnea was statistically associated with dengue and leptospirosis (p = 0.012), and exanthem/petechia with dengue and rubella (p = 0.001). Among those with leptospirosis, activities in empty or vacant lots showed statistical association with the disease (p = 0.013). Syndromic surveillance was shown to be an important tool in the etiologic identification of IFI in the Federal District of Brazil.

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Currently there are several methods to extract bacterial DNA based on different principles. However, the amount and the quality of the DNA obtained by each one of those methods is highly variable and microorganism dependent, as illustrated by coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) which have a thick cell wall that is difficult to lyse. This study was designed to compare the quality and the amount of CoNS DNA, extracted by four different techniques: two in-house protocols and two commercial kits. DNA amount and quality determination was performed through spectrophotometry. The extracted DNA was also analyzed using agarose gel electrophoresis and by PCR. 267 isolates of CoNS were used in this study. The column method and thermal lyses showed better results with regard to DNA quality (mean ratio of A260/280 = 1.95) and average concentration of DNA (), respectively. All four methods tested provided appropriate DNA for PCR amplification, but with different yields. DNA quality is important since it allows the application of a large number of molecular biology techniques, and also it's storage for a longer period of time. In this sense the extraction method based on an extraction column presented the best results for CoNS.

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Serum samples from 150 NS1-negative (Platelia ELISA) patients presumptively diagnosed with dengue were analyzed by the TaqMan probed real-time reverse transcription PCR (TaqMan qRT-PCR) method. The qRT-PCR positive samples were tested for serotype by semi-nested RT-PCR and a qualitative immunochromatographic assay for IgG and IgM. Molecular detection methods showed 33 (22%) positive samples out of 150 NS1-antigen negative samples. Of these, 72% were collected up to day 2 after the onset of symptoms, when diagnostic sensitivity of NS1-antigen test assays is significantly enhanced. Most of the cases were not characterized as secondary infection. Twenty-eight samples were successfully serotyped, 75% of which for DENV-4, 14% for DENV-2, 7% for DENV-3 and 4% for DENV-1. These findings reaffirm the hyperendemic situation of the state of Roraima and suggest a lower sensitivity of the NS1 test, mainly when DENV-4 is the predominant serotype. Health care providers should therefore be aware of samples tested negative by NS1 antigen assays, especially when clinical symptoms and other laboratory data results show evidence of dengue infection.

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