Modeling growth and yield of loblolly pinestands under intensive management

Abstract:The objective of this work was to develop and validate a prognosis system for volume yield and basal area of intensively managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stands, using stand and diameter class models compatible in basal area estimates. The data used in the study were obtained from plantations located in northern Uruguay. For model validation without data loss, a three-phase validation scheme was applied: first, the equations were fitted without the validation database; then, model validation was carried out; and, finally, the database was regrouped to recalibrate the parameter values. After the validation and final parameterization of the models, a simulation of the first commercial thinning was carried out. The developed prognosis system was precise and accurate in estimating basal area production per hectare or per diameter classes. There was compatibility in basal area estimates between diameter class and whole stand models, with a mean difference of -0.01 m2ha-1. The validation scheme applied is logic and consistent, since information on the accuracy and precision of the models is obtained without the loss of any information in the estimation of the models' parameters.

Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the State Of Goiás, Brazil

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering, simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90 percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.

Prediction of free-stall occupancy rate in dairycattle barns through fuzzy sets

The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.

Modeling and control of multibody system with flexible appendages

The objective of this work is to describe the design and the implementation of an experiment to study the dynamics and the active control of a slewing multi-link flexible structure. The experimental apparatus was designed to be representative of a flexible space structure such as a satellite with multiple flexible appendages. In this study we describe the design procedures, the analog and digital instrumentation, the analytical modeling together with model validation studies carried out through experimental modal testing and parametric system identification studies in the frequency domain. Preliminary results of a simple positional control where the sensor and the actuator are positioned physically at the same point is also described.

Accuracy of modelling and identification of malfunctions in rotor systems: experimental results

The accuracy of modelling of rotor systems composed of rotors, oil film bearings and a flexible foundation, is evaluated and discussed in this paper. The model validation of different models has been done by comparing experimental results with numerical results by means. The experimental data have been obtained with a fully instrumented four oil film bearing, two shafts test rig. The fault models are then used in the frame of a model based malfunction identification procedure, based on a least square fitting approach applied in the frequency domain. The capability of distinguishing different malfunctions has been investigated, even if they can create similar effects (such as unbalance, rotor bow, coupling misalignment and others) from shaft vibrations measured in correspondence of the bearings.

Testing and simulation of fractionary electromechanical rotative drives

This paper concerns the development of drives that use electromechanical rotative motor systems. It is proposed an experimental drive test structure integrated to simulation softwares. The objective of this work is to show that an affordable model validation procedure can be obtained by combining a precision data acquisition with well tuned state-of-the-art simulation packages. This is required for fitting, in the best way, a drive to its load or, inversely, to adapt loads to given drive characteristics.

Validation study of an automated wrist monitor, omron model HEM-608, compared with the standard methods for blood pressure measurement

OBJECTIVE - The aim of our study was to assess the profile of a wrist monitor, the Omron Model HEM-608, compared with the indirect method for blood pressure measurement. METHODS - Our study population consisted of 100 subjects, 29 being normotensive and 71 being hypertensive. Participants had their blood pressure checked 8 times with alternate techniques, 4 by the indirect method and 4 with the Omron wrist monitor. The validation criteria used to test this device were based on the internationally recognized protocols. RESULTS - Our data showed that the Omron HEM-608 reached a classification B for systolic and A for diastolic blood pressure, according to the one protocol. The mean differences between blood pressure values obtained with each of the methods were -2.3 +7.9mmHg for systolic and 0.97+5.5mmHg for diastolic blood pressure. Therefore, we considered this type of device approved according to the criteria selected. CONCLUSION - Our study leads us to conclude that this wrist monitor is not only easy to use, but also produces results very similar to those obtained by the standard indirect method.

Extraction of soil water by plants: development and validation of a model

A quantitative model of water movement within the immediate vicinity of an individual root is developed and results of an experiment to validate the model are presented. The model is based on the assumption that the amount of water transpired by a plant in a certain period is replaced by an equal volume entering its root system during the same time. The model is based on the Darcy-Buckingham equation to calculate the soil water matric potential at any distance from a plant root as a function of parameters related to crop, soil and atmospheric conditions. The model output is compared against measurements of soil water depletion by rice roots monitored using γ-beam attenuation in a greenhouse of the Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz"/Universidade de São Paulo(ESALQ/USP) in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1993. The experimental results are in agreement with the output from the model. Model simulations show that a single plant root is able to withdraw water from more than 0.1 m away within a few days. We therefore can assume that root distribution is a less important factor for soil water extraction efficiency.

Validation of psychosocial scales for physical activity in university students

OBJECTIVE Translate the Patient-centered Assessment and Counseling for Exercise questionnaire, adapt it cross-culturally and identify the psychometric properties of the psychosocial scales for physical activity in young university students.METHODS The Patient-centered Assessment and Counseling for Exercise questionnaire is made up of 39 items divided into constructs based on the social cognitive theory and the transtheoretical model. The analyzed constructs were, as follows: behavior change strategy (15 items), decision-making process (10), self-efficacy (6), support from family (4), and support from friends (4). The validation procedures were conceptual, semantic, operational, and functional equivalences, in addition to the equivalence of the items and of measurements. The conceptual, of items and semantic equivalences were performed by a specialized committee. During measurement equivalence, the instrument was applied to 717 university students. Exploratory factor analysis was used to verify the loading of each item, explained variance and internal consistency of the constructs. Reproducibility was measured by means of intraclass correlation coefficient.RESULTS The two translations were equivalent and back-translation was similar to the original version, with few adaptations. The layout, presentation order of the constructs and items from the original version were kept in the same form as the original instrument. The sample size was adequate and was evaluated by the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test, with values between 0.72 and 0.91. The correlation matrix of the items presented r < 0.8 (p < 0.05). The factor loadings of the items from all the constructs were satisfactory (> 0.40), varying between 0.43 and 0.80, which explained between 45.4% and 59.0% of the variance. Internal consistency was satisfactory (α ≥ 0.70), with support from friends being 0.70 and 0.92 for self-efficacy. Most items (74.3%) presented values above 0.70 for the reproducibility test.CONCLUSIONS The validation process steps were considered satisfactory and adequate for applying to the population.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Content validation of the nursing diagnosis Nausea

This study aimed to evaluate the content validity of the nursing diagnosis of nausea in the immediate post-operative period, considering Fehring’s model. Descriptive study with 52 nurses experts who responded an instrument containing identification and validation of nausea diagnosis data. Most experts considered the domain 12 (Comfort), Class 1 (Physical Comfort) and the statement (Nausea) adequate to the diagnosis. Modifications were suggested in the current definition of this nursing diagnosis. Four defining characteristics were considered primary (reported nausea, increased salivation, aversion to food and vomiting sensation) and eight secondary (increased swallowing, sour taste in the mouth, pallor, tachycardia, diaphoresis, sensation of hot and cold, changes in blood pressure and pupil dilation). The total score for the diagnosis of nausea was 0.79. Reports of nausea, vomiting sensation, increased salivation and aversion to food are strong predictors of nursing diagnosis of nausea.

Applicability of a distributed watershed pollution model in a data-poor environment in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the Ariranhazinho River, near the city of Seara, in Santa Catarina State. Steps included data preparation, cell size selection, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and application to different management scenarios. The model was calibrated based on a best guess for model parameters and on a pragmatic sensitivity analysis. The parameters were adjusted to match model outputs (runoff volume, peak runoff rate and sediment concentration) closely with the sparse observed data. A modelling grid cell resolution of 150 m adduced appropriate and computer-fit results. The rainfall runoff response of the AgNPS model was calibrated using three separate rainfall ranges (< 25, 25-60, > 60 mm). Predicted sediment concentrations were consistently six to ten times higher than observed, probably due to sediment trapping along vegetated channel banks. Predicted N and P concentrations in stream water ranged from just below to well above regulatory norms. Expert knowledge of the area, in addition to experience reported in the literature, was able to compensate in part for limited calibration data. Several scenarios (actual, recommended and excessive manure applications, and point source pollution from swine operations) could be compared by the model, using a relative ranking rather than quantitative predictions.

DRIS norms validation for sugarcane crop

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationship between the diagnosis and recommendation integrated system (DRIS) indices and foliar nutrient concentrations, to establish optimum foliar nutrient concentrations with DRIS and to validate the DRIS norms for sugarcane crop. Foliar nutrient concentrations from 126 sugarcane commercial fields were analyzed during the 1996/97 season, to calculate DRIS indices. Regression analysis was used to fit a model relating DRIS indices to nutrient concentrations. Experiments were carried out during the 1997/98 season, whose treatments consisted of the addition of the most limiting nutrients according to DRIS. A new diagnosis was performed. At the end of 1997/98 season, the yields of each plot were collected. Analysis of variance and Duncan test (5%) were used for the evaluation of the collected data. There was a positive and significant relationship between sugarcane foliar nutrient concentrations and DRIS indices. The optimum foliar nutrient concentrations for sugarcane are: 13.4 g ha-1 for N, 1.91 g ha-1 for P, 12.2 g ha-1 for K, 2.99 g ha-1 for Ca, 2.15 g ha-1 for Mg, 1.61 g ha-1 for S, 4.48 mg ha-1 for Cu, 67.8 mg ha-1 for Mnand 11.7 mg ha-1 for Zn. DRIS norms evaluated are useful to correct nutritional imbalances and to increase sugarcane yield.

Uncertainties of the 137Cs technique for validation of soil redistribution modelling in a semiarid meso-scale watershed

Scarcity of long-term series of sediment-related variables has led watershed managers to apply mathematical models to simulate sediment fluxes. Due to the high efforts for installation and maintenance of sedimentological gauges, tracers have been pointed out as an alternative to validate soil redistribution modelling. In this study, the 137Cs technique was used to assess the WASA-SED model performance at the Benguê watershed (933 km²), in the Brazilian semiarid. Qualitatively, good agreement was found among the 137Cs technique and the WASA-SED model results. Nonetheless, quantitatively great differences, up to two orders of magnitude, were found between the two methods. Among the uncertainties inherent to the 137Cs technique, definition of the reference inventory seems to be a major source of imprecision. In addition, estimations of water and sediment fluxes with mathematical models usually also present high uncertainty, contributing to the quantitative differences of the soil redistribution estimates with the two methods.

Hydrological simulation using SWAT model in headwater basin in Southeast Brazil

Hydrological models are important tools that have been used in water resource planning and management. Thus, the aim of this work was to calibrate and validate in a daily time scale, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the watershed of the Galo creek , located in Espírito Santo State. To conduct the study we used georeferenced maps of relief, soil type and use, in addition to historical daily time series of basin climate and flow. In modeling were used time series corresponding to the periods Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2000 and Jan 1, 2001 to Dec 20, 2003 for calibration and validation, respectively. Model performance evaluation was done using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E NS) and the percentage of bias (P BIAS). SWAT evaluation was also done in the simulation of the following hydrological variables: maximum and minimum annual daily flowsand minimum reference flows, Q90 and Q95, based on mean absolute error. E NS and P BIAS were, respectively, 0.65 and 7.2% and 0.70 and 14.1%, for calibration and validation, indicating a satisfactory performance for the model. SWAT adequately simulated minimum annual daily flow and the reference flows, Q90 and Q95; it was not suitable in the simulation of maximum annual daily flows.