27 resultados para model selection in binary regression

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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Background: Several researchers seek methods for the selection of homogeneous groups of animals in experimental studies, a fact justified because homogeneity is an indispensable prerequisite for casualization of treatments. The lack of robust methods that comply with statistical and biological principles is the reason why researchers use empirical or subjective methods, influencing their results. Objective: To develop a multivariate statistical model for the selection of a homogeneous group of animals for experimental research and to elaborate a computational package to use it. Methods: The set of echocardiographic data of 115 male Wistar rats with supravalvular aortic stenosis (AoS) was used as an example of model development. Initially, the data were standardized, and became dimensionless. Then, the variance matrix of the set was submitted to principal components analysis (PCA), aiming at reducing the parametric space and at retaining the relevant variability. That technique established a new Cartesian system into which the animals were allocated, and finally the confidence region (ellipsoid) was built for the profile of the animals’ homogeneous responses. The animals located inside the ellipsoid were considered as belonging to the homogeneous batch; those outside the ellipsoid were considered spurious. Results: The PCA established eight descriptive axes that represented the accumulated variance of the data set in 88.71%. The allocation of the animals in the new system and the construction of the confidence region revealed six spurious animals as compared to the homogeneous batch of 109 animals. Conclusion: The biometric criterion presented proved to be effective, because it considers the animal as a whole, analyzing jointly all parameters measured, in addition to having a small discard rate.

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This study aimed to evaluate the efficiency of simultaneous selection (selection indices) using estimated genetic gains in yellow passion fruit and to make a comparison between the methodologies of Mulamba & Mock and Elston. The study was conducted with 26 sib progenies of yellow passion fruit for intrinsic production characteristics including fruit number, fruit mass, fruit length and diameter, and for the fruit characteristics skin thickness, soluble solids and acidity. Two methodologies were applied: first, in the joint analysis of fruit characteristics and of intrinsic production characteristics in a single phase of selection; and second, in the analysis in two phases, in which priority was given to the intrinsic production characteristics in the first phase, and later, in the second phase, the best fruit characteristics were chosen among the progenies of the first phase. The analysis of variance was applied to the data to detect genetic variability among progenies. The Elston's selection indice was unable to provide distribution of genetic gains consistent with the purposes of the study, as it selected a single progeny of passion fruit. However, the index based on the sum of ranks of Mulamba & Mock was more suitable, as it provided a balanced distribution of gains, selecting a larger number of progenies. The methodology of selection using indices is advantageous in passion fruit, since it contributes to higher genetic gains for all the traits evaluated, and the selection in a single phase was proved efficient for progeny selection.

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An experimental model of murine chromoblastomycosis and in vitro tests with Fonsecaea pedrosoi were used to test the sensitivity of this fungus to three different antimycotics. The experimental model was standardized in BALB/c mice inoculated intraperitoneally with a 10(6) CFU/ml suspension of a F. pedrosoi isolate. Clinical infection was evident after 5 days of inoculation. Three groups of 27 mice each were used in the experiment. One group was treated with ketoconazole (KTZ), another with itraconazole (ITZ) and the other with saperconazole (SPZ). Antimycotic therapy was continued for 21 days. The control group consisted of 40 mice which were inoculated, but not treated. Infection was documented by macroscopic and microscopic examination of affected tissue in addition to culture of tissue macerates. Minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) and minimal fungicidal concentrations (MFC) for the F. pedrosoi strain used were done. The in vitro results showed that SPZ was the most active with MIC 0.01 mg/ml and MFC 0.1 mg/ml, followed by ITZ. SPZ was also the most effective in vivo since 63% of the treated animals (p=0.01) showed a curative effect after the observation period. We concluded that SPZ had the best in vitro and in vivo activity against F. pedrosoi.

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The objetive of this work was to evaluate the influence of intergenotypic competition in open-pollinated families of Eucalyptus and its effects on early selection efficiency. Two experiments were carried out, in which the timber volume was evaluated at three ages, in a randomized complete block design. Data from the three years of evaluation (experiment 1, at 2, 4, and 7 years; and experiment 2, at 2, 5, and 7 years) were analyzed using mixed models. The following were estimated: variance components, genetic parameters, selection gains, effective number, early selection efficiency, selection gain per unit time, and coincidence of selection with and without the use of competition covariates. Competition effect was nonsignificant for ages under three years, and adjustment using competition covariates was unnecessary. Early selection for families is effective; families that have a late growth spurt are more vulnerable to competition, which markedly impairs ranking at the end of the cycle. Early selection is efficient according to all adopted criteria, and the age of around three years is the most recommended, given the high efficiency and accuracy rate in the indication of trees and families. The addition of competition covariates at the end of the cycle improves early selection efficiency for almost all studied criteria.

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A stability-indicating RP-HPLC method is presented for determination of gatifloxacin and flurbiprofen in binary combination. Gatifloxacin, flurbiprofen and their degradation products were detected at 254 nm using a BDS Hypersil C8 (250 X 4.6 mm, 5 µm) column and mixture of 20 mM phosphate buffer (pH 3.0) and methanol 30:70 v/v as mobile phase. Response was linear over the range of 15-105 mg mL-1 for gatifloxacin (r² > 0.998) and of 1.5-10.5 mg mL-1 for flurbiprofen (r² > 0.999). The developed method efficiently separated the analytical peaks from degradation products (peak purity index > 0.9999). The method developed can be applied successfully for determination of gatifloxacin and flurbiprofen in human serum, urine, pharmaceutical formulations, and their stability studies.

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In this essay I will argue that natural selection is more important to functional explanations than what has been thought in some of the literature in philosophy of biology. I start by giving a brief overview of the two paradigms cases of functional explanations: etiological functions and causal-role functions. i then consider one particular attempt to conciliate both perspectives given by David Buller (1998). Buller's trial to conciliate both etiological functions and causal-role functions results in what he calls a weak etiological theory. I argue that Buller has not succeeded in his construal of the weak etiological theory: he underestimates the role that selective processes have in functional explanations and so his theory may not be classified as an etiologial theory. As an alternative, I consider the account of etiological functions given by Ruth Millikan (1984) and I argue that Millikan's theory is more comprehensive to assess contentious case in biology like exaptations. Finally, I conclude by analyzing where the adoption of Millikan's theory leave us. I argue, contrary to Millikan and others, that once we assume the importance of natural selection in functional explanations, there is no strong reason to resist a linguistic reform of the word function and hence that the attempts to conciliate both etiological functions and causal-role functions are misplaced.

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Seven selection indexes based on the phenotypic value of the individual and the mean performance of its family were assessed for their application in breeding of self-pollinated plants. There is no clear superiority from one index to another although some show one or more negative aspects, such as favoring the selection of a top performing plant from an inferior family in detriment of an excellent plant from a superior family

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A pulsatile pressure-flow model was developed for in vitro quantitative color Doppler flow mapping studies of valvular regurgitation. The flow through the system was generated by a piston which was driven by stepper motors controlled by a computer. The piston was connected to acrylic chambers designed to simulate "ventricular" and "atrial" heart chambers. Inside the "ventricular" chamber, a prosthetic heart valve was placed at the inflow connection with the "atrial" chamber while another prosthetic valve was positioned at the outflow connection with flexible tubes, elastic balloons and a reservoir arranged to mimic the peripheral circulation. The flow model was filled with a 0.25% corn starch/water suspension to improve Doppler imaging. A continuous flow pump transferred the liquid from the peripheral reservoir to another one connected to the "atrial" chamber. The dimensions of the flow model were designed to permit adequate imaging by Doppler echocardiography. Acoustic windows allowed placement of transducers distal and perpendicular to the valves, so that the ultrasound beam could be positioned parallel to the valvular flow. Strain-gauge and electromagnetic transducers were used for measurements of pressure and flow in different segments of the system. The flow model was also designed to fit different sizes and types of prosthetic valves. This pulsatile flow model was able to generate pressure and flow in the physiological human range, with independent adjustment of pulse duration and rate as well as of stroke volume. This model mimics flow profiles observed in patients with regurgitant prosthetic valves.

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The increasing demand of consumer markets for the welfare of birds in poultry house has motivated many scientific researches to monitor and classify the welfare according to the production environment. Given the complexity between the birds and the environment of the aviary, the correct interpretation of the conduct becomes an important way to estimate the welfare of these birds. This study obtained multiple logistic regression models with capacity of estimating the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to the environment of the aviaries and behaviors expressed by the birds. In the experiment, were observed several behaviors expressed by breeders housed in a climatic chamber under controlled temperatures and three different ammonia concentrations from the air monitored daily. From the analysis of the data it was obtained two logistic regression models, of which the first model uses a value of ammonia concentration measured by unit and the second model uses a binary value to classify the ammonia concentration that is assigned by a person through his olfactory perception. The analysis showed that both models classified the broiler breeder's welfare successfully.

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The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

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OBJECTIVE: Selecting controls is one of the most difficult tasks in the design of case-control studies. Hospital controls may be inadequate and random controls drawn from the base population may be unavailable. The aim was to assess the use of hospital visitors as controls in a case-control study on the association of organochlorinated compounds and other risk factors for breast cancer conducted in the main hospital of the "Instituto Nacional de Câncer" -- INCA (National Cancer Institute) in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). METHODS: The study included 177 incident cases and 377 controls recruited among female visitors. Three different models of control group composition were compared: Model 1, with all selected visitors; Model 2, excluding women visiting relatives with breast cancer; and Model 3, excluding all women visiting relatives with any type of cancer. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to test the associations. RESULTS: Age-adjusted OR for breast cancer associated with risk factors other than family history of cancer, except smoking and breast size, were similar in the three models. Regarding family history of all cancers, except for breast cancer, there was a decreased risk in Models 1 and 2, while in Model 3 there was an increased risk, but not statistically significant. Family history of breast cancer was a risk factor in Models 2 and 3, but no association was found in Model 1. In multivariate analysis a significant risk of breast cancer was found when there was a family history of breast cancer in Models 2 and 3 but not in Model 1. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that while investigating risk factors unrelated to family history of cancer, the use of hospital visitors as controls may be a valid and feasible alternative.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship of blood lead and hemoglobin, zinc protoporphyrin, and ferritin concentrations in children. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in 136 anemic and non-anemic children from two rural villages near a lead smelter in Adrianópolis, Southern Brazil, from July to September 2001. Hemoglobin electrophoresis was performed to exclude children with hemoglobin variants and thalassemia syndromes associated with anemia. Lead was determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry; hemoglobin by automated cell counting; zinc protoporphyrin by hematofluorometry; ferritin by chemiluminescence. Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney test, and the c² test were used to assess the significance of the differences between the variables investigated in anemic and non-anemic children. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis was performed using two models for anemic and non-anemic children respectively. RESULTS: Lead was negatively associated to hemoglobin (p<0.017) in the first model, and in the second model lead was positively associated to zinc protoporphyrin (p<0.004) after controlling for ferritin, age, sex, and per capita income. There was an inverse association between hemoglobin and blood lead in anemic children. It was not possible to confirm if anemic children had iron deficiency anemia or subclinical infection, considering that the majority (90.4%) had normal ferritin. CONCLUSIONS: The study detected a relationship between anemia and elevated blood lead concentrations. Further epidemiological studies are necessary to investigate the impact of iron nutritional interventions as an attempt to decrease blood lead in children.

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The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.

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INTRODUCTION: Reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV is possible when prophylactic measures are implemented. Our objective was to determine demographic characteristics of HIV-infected pregnant women and the rate of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. METHODS: A descriptive study was conducted using notification, and investigating data from the Notifiable Diseases Data System in the Brazilian State of Amazonas, between 2007 and 2009. RESULTS: During the study period, notification was received of 509 HIV-positive pregnant women. The vertical transmission was 9.9% (95% CI: 7.2-12.6%). The mean age of women was 27 years (SD: 5.7), and the majority (54.8%) had not completed elementary school (eighth grade). Diagnosis of HIV seropositivity was made prior to pregnancy in 115 (22.6%) women, during prenatal care in 302 (59.3%), during delivery in 70 (13.8%), and following delivery in 22 (4.3%). Four hundred four of these women (79.4%) had had prenatal care, with 79.4% of patients receiving antiretroviral during pregnancy and 61.9% of the newborn infants receiving prophylaxis. In the final multivariate logistic regression model, living in urban area [OR = 0.7 (95% CI: 0.35-0.89)] and having had prenatal care [OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.04-0.24)] remained as protective factors against vertical HIV transmission in this population. CONCLUSIONS: The relevance of adequate compliance with the measures already established as being effective in guaranteeing a reduction in HIV transmission within the maternal and infant population should be emphasized.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze in out clinic elderly patients of both sexes for the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis and study their association with the complications of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Five hundred and sixteen outpatients, 152 men and 364 women, 60 years or older, were studied. The prevalences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking and obesity were determined in both sexes and compared using the chi-square test. The association between these factors and the presence of atherosclerotic complications was analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of the factors in both sexes showed that hypertension, total cholesterol > or = 240mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, and body mass index >27.5 were more frequent among women, but HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and cigarette smoking were more frequent among men, and no difference occurred between sexes in relation to the frequency of triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment of the variables in the regression model, we observed that in the total of elderly patients, risk factors for complications of atherosclerosis were: triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL, hypertension, and male sex. Among men, the risk factors were: LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, diabetes mellitus, HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and hypertension. Among women, the risk factors were: tryglicerides > or = 250mg/dL and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The results showed that, in the elderly, the risk factors for atherosclerosis persist, but with different behaviors between men and women. The study suggests that the relative importance of the risk factors can change with the aging process.