Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Spatial distribution and socioeconomic context of tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of risk for tuberculosis and its socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.METHODS An ecological study on the association between the mean incidence rate of tuberculosis from 2004 to 2006 and socioeconomic indicators of the Censo Demográfico (Demographic Census) of 2000. The unit of analysis was the home district registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Notifiable Diseases Information System) of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. The rates were standardized by sex and age group, and smoothed by the empirical Bayes method. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by Moran’s I. Multiple linear regression models were studied and the appropriateness of incorporating the spatial component in modeling was evaluated.RESULTS We observed a higher risk of the disease in some neighborhoods of the port and north regions, as well as a high incidence in the slums of Rocinha and Vidigal, in the south region, and Cidade de Deus, in the west. The final model identified a positive association for the variables: percentage of permanent private households in which the head of the house earns three to five minimum wages; percentage of individual residents in the neighborhood; and percentage of people living in homes with more than two people per bedroom.CONCLUSIONS The spatial analysis identified areas of risk of tuberculosis incidence in the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro and also found spatial dependence for the incidence of tuberculosis and some socioeconomic variables. However, the inclusion of the space component in the final model was not required during the modeling process.

Modeling water movement in horizontal columns using fractal theory

Fractal mathematics has been used to characterize water and solute transport in porous media and also to characterize and simulate porous media properties. The objective of this study was to evaluate the correlation between the soil infiltration parameters sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) and the parameters dimension (D) and the Hurst exponent (H). For this purpose, ten horizontal columns with pure (either clay or loam) and heterogeneous porous media (clay and loam distributed in layers in the column) were simulated following the distribution of a deterministic Cantor Bar with fractal dimension H" 0.63. Horizontal water infiltration experiments were then simulated using Hydrus 2D software. The sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) parameters of the Philip equation were estimated for each simulation, using the nonlinear regression procedure of the statistical software package SAS®. Sorptivity increased in the columns with the loam content, which was attributed to the relation of S with the capillary radius. The time exponent estimated by nonlinear regression was found to be less than the traditional value of 0.5. The fractal dimension estimated from the Hurst exponent was 17.5 % lower than the fractal dimension of the Cantor Bar used to generate the columns.

Development of a warning system for wheat blast caused by Pyricularia grisea

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) blast caused by Pyricularia grisea is a new disease in Brazil and no resistant cultivars are available. The interactions between temperature and wetness durations have been used in many early warning systems. Hence, growth chamber experiments to assess the effect of different temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35ºC) and the duration of spike-wetness (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 hours) on the intensity of blast in cultivar BR23 were carried out. Each temperature formed an experiment and the duration of wetness the treatments. The highest blast intensity was observed at 30°C and increased as the duration of the wetting period increased while the lowest occurred at 25°C and 10 hours of spike wetness. Regardless of the temperature, no symptoms occurred when the wetting period was less than 10 hours but at 25°C and a 40 h wetting period blast intensity exceeded 85%. These variations in blast intensity as a function of temperature are explained by a generalized beta model and as a function of the duration of spike wetness by the Gompertz model. Disease intensity was modeled as a function of both temperature and the durations of spike wetness and the resulting equation provided a precise description of the response of P. grisea to temperatures and the durations of spike wetness. This model was used to construct tables that can be used to predict the intensity of P. grisea wheat blast based on the temperatures and the durations of wheat spike wetness obtained in the field.

Hipsometric relationship modeling using data sampled in tree scaling and inventory plots

This work evaluated eight hypsometric models to represent tree height-diameter relationship, using data obtained from the scaling of 118 trees and 25 inventory plots. Residue graphic analysis and percent deviation mean criteria, qui-square test precision, residual standard error between real and estimated heights and the graybill f test were adopted. The identity of the hypsometric models was also verified by applying the F(Ho) test on the plot data grouped to the scaling data. It was concluded that better accuracy can be obtained by using the model prodan, with h and d1,3 data measured in 10 trees by plots grouped into these scaling data measurements of even-aged forest stands.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Development of capacitive sensor for measuring soil water content

The irrigation management based on the monitoring of the soil water content allows for the minimization of the amount of water applied, making its use more efficient. Taking into account these aspects, in this work, a sensor for measuring the soil water content was developed to allow real time automation of irrigation systems. This way, problems affecting crop yielding such as irregularities in the time to turn on or turn off the pump, and excess or deficit of water can be solved. To develop the sensors were used stainless steel rods, resin, and insulating varnish. The sensors measuring circuit was based on a microcontroller, which gives its output signal in the digital format. The sensors were calibrated using soil of the type “Quartzarenic Neosoil”. A third order polynomial model was fitted to the experimental data between the values of water content corresponding to the field capacity and the wilting point to correlate the soil water content obtained by the oven standard method with those measured by the electronic circuit, with a coefficient of determination of 93.17%, and an accuracy in the measures of ±0.010 kg kg-1. Based on the results, it was concluded that the sensor and its implemented measuring circuit can be used in the automation process of irrigation systems.

Simulation of Active Control Using Fuzzy Logic Applied to a Pulse Combustor

This work analyzes an active fuzzy logic control system in a Rijke type pulse combustor. During the system development, a study of the existing types of control for pulse combustion was carried out and a simulation model was implemented to be used with the package Matlab and Simulink. Blocks which were not available in the simulator library were developed. A fuzzy controller was developed and its membership functions and inference rules were established. The obtained simulation showed that fuzzy logic is viable in the control of combustion instabilities. The obtained results indicated that the control system responded to pulses in an efficient and desirable way. It was verified that the system needed approximately 0.2 s to increase the tube internal pressure from 30 to 90 mbar, with an assumed total delay of 2 ms. The effects of delay variation were studied. Convergence was always obtained and general performance was not affected by the delay. The controller sends a pressure signal in phase with the Rijke tube internal pressure signal, through the speakers, when an increase the oscillations pressure amplitude is desired. On the other hand, when a decrease of the tube internal pressure amplitude is desired, the controller sends a signal 180º out of phase.

In silico analysis identifies a C3HC4-RING finger domain of a putative E3 ubiquitin-protein ligase located at the C-terminus of a polyglutamine-containing protein

Almost identical polyglutamine-containing proteins with unknown structures have been found in human, mouse and rat genomes (GenBank AJ277365, AF525300, AY879229). We infer that an identical new gene (RING) finger domain of real interest is located in each C-terminal segment. A three-dimensional (3-D) model was generated by remote homology modeling and the functional implications are discussed. The model consists of 65 residues from terminal position 707 to 772 of the human protein with a total length of 796 residues. The 3-D model predicts a ubiquitin-protein ligase (E3) as a binding site for ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (E2). Both enzymes are part of the ubiquitin pathway to label unwanted proteins for subsequent enzymatic degradation. The molecular contact specificities are suggested for both the substrate recognition and the residues at the possible E2-binding surface. The predicted structure, of a ubiquitin-protein ligase (E3, enzyme class number 6.3.2.19, CATH code 3.30.40.10.4) may contribute to explain the process of ubiquitination. The 3-D model supports the idea of a C3HC4-RING finger with a partially new pattern. The putative E2-binding site is formed by a shallow hydrophobic groove on the surface adjacent to the helix and one zinc finger (L722, C739, P740, P741, R744). Solvent-exposed hydrophobic amino acids lie around both zinc fingers (I717, L722, F738, or P765, L766, V767, V733, P734). The 3-D structure was deposited in the protein databank theoretical model repository (2B9G, RCSB Protein Data Bank, NJ).

The Brazilian electronic theses and dissertations digital library: providing open access for scholarly information

This paper describes a project led by the Instituto Brasileiro de Informações em Ciência e Tecnologia (Ibict), a government institution, to build a national digital library for electronic theses and dissertations - Bibliteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações (BDTD). The project has been a collaborative effort among Ibict, universities and other research centers in Brazil. The developers adopted a system architecture based on the Open Archives Initiative (OAI) in which universities and research centers act as data providers and Ibict as a service provider. A Brazilian metadata standard for electronic theses and dissertations was developed for the digital library. A toolkit including open source package was also developed by Ibict to be distributed to potential data providers. BDTD has been integrated with the international initiative: the Networked Digital Library of Thesis and Dissertation (NDLTD). Discussions in the paper address various issues related to project design, development and management as well as the role played by Ibict. Conclusions highlight some important lessons learned to date and challenges for the future in expanding the BDTD project.

Low cost driver device for microclimate maintenance in the pre-milking of dairy cattle

Due to the importance of the environment on animal production and thus environmental control, the study aims to build a system for monitoring and control the meteorological variables, temperature and relative humidity, low cost, which can be associated with an evaporative cooling system (ECS). The system development included all the stages of assembly, test and laboratory calibration, and later the validation of the equipment carried in the field. The validation step showed results which allowed concluding that the system can be safely used in the monitoring of these variables. The controller was efficient in management of the microclimate in the waiting corral and allowed the maintenance of the air temperature within the comfort range for dairy cattle in pre-milking with averaged 25.09 ºC during the afternoon. The equipment showed the lower cost (R$ 325.76) when compared to other middle market (R$ 450.00).

Growth and Development of Purple Nutsedge Based on Days or Thermal Units

This work was carried out with the objective of elaborating mathematical models to predict growth and development of purple nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus) based on days or accumulated thermal units (growing degree days). Thus, two independent trials were developed, the first with a decreasing photoperiod (March to July) and the second with an increasing photoperiod (August to November). In each trial, ten assessments of plant growth and development were performed, quantifying total dry matter and the species phenology. After that, phenology was fit to first degree equations, considering individual trials or their grouping. In the same way, the total dry matter was fit to logistic-type models. In all regressions four temporal scales possibilities were assessed for the x axis: accumulated days or growing degree days (GDD) with base temperatures (Tb) of 10, 12 and 15 oC. For both photoperiod conditions, growth and development of purple nutsedge were adequately fit to prediction mathematical models based on accumulated thermal units, highlighting Tb = 12 oC. Considering GDD calculated with Tb = 12 oC, purple nutsedge phenology may be predicted by y = 0.113x, while species growth may be predicted by y = 37.678/(1+(x/509.353)-7.047).

Xyloglucans from Hymenaea courbaril var. stilbocarpa seeds affect Arabidopsis thaliana seedling growth by enhancing lateral root development

The effect of crude xyloglucan (XG) preparations from jatobá (Hymenaea courbaril var. stilbocarpa (Hayne) Y. T. Lee & Langenh.) seeds on Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh. root system development was investigated. The XG extracts exerted a dual effect on root system development by slowing down root growth and improving lateral root formation. These observed morphological changes were not due to oligosaccharides that could be generated following hydrolysis of the XG polymers, since XG hydrolysate induced a drastic inhibition of the overall growth process of the Arabidopsis thaliana seedlings. Histochemical test of GUS gene expression assay performed on seven and 14-days-old transgenic Arabidopsis thaliana plants carrying the CycB1;1-GUS fusion indicated that the improvement of the lateral root development by jatobá XG extracts was not correlated with the expression of this cell cycle marker gene in the root system. A potential agricultural application of jatobá seeds XG extract is discussed.

Cross-talk between neurons and glia: highlights on soluble factors

The development of the nervous system is guided by a balanced action between intrinsic factors represented by the genetic program and epigenetic factors characterized by cell-cell interactions which neural cells might perform throughout nervous system morphogenesis. Highly relevant among them are neuron-glia interactions. Several soluble factors secreted by either glial or neuronal cells have been implicated in the mutual influence these cells exert on each other. In this review, we will focus our attention on recent advances in the understanding of the role of glial and neuronal trophic factors in nervous system development. We will argue that the functional architecture of the brain depends on an intimate neuron-glia partnership.

The extracellular matrix provides directional cues for neuronal migration during cerebellar development

Normal central nervous system development relies on accurate intrinsic cellular programs as well as on extrinsic informative cues provided by extracellular molecules. Migration of neuronal progenitors from defined proliferative zones to their final location is a key event during embryonic and postnatal development. Extracellular matrix components play important roles in these processes, and interactions between neurons and extracellular matrix are fundamental for the normal development of the central nervous system. Guidance cues are provided by extracellular factors that orient neuronal migration. During cerebellar development, the extracellular matrix molecules laminin and fibronectin give support to neuronal precursor migration, while other molecules such as reelin, tenascin, and netrin orient their migration. Reelin and tenascin are extracellular matrix components that attract or repel neuronal precursors and axons during development through interaction with membrane receptors, and netrin associates with laminin and heparan sulfate proteoglycans, and binds to the extracellular matrix receptor integrins present on the neuronal surface. Altogether, the dynamic changes in the composition and distribution of extracellular matrix components provide external cues that direct neurons leaving their birthplaces to reach their correct final location. Understanding the molecular mechanisms that orient neurons to reach precisely their final location during development is fundamental to understand how neuronal misplacement leads to neurological diseases and eventually to find ways to treat them.