CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY ON THE DETERMINANTS OF BANK FINANCIAL DISTRESS

ABSTRACTBank failures affect owners, employees, and customers, possibly causing large-scale economic distress. Thus, banks must evaluate operational risks and develop early warning systems. This study investigates bank failures in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, newly industrialized countries, the G20, and the G8. We use financial ratios to analyze and explore the appropriateness of prediction models. Results show that capital ratios, interest income compared to interest expenses, non-interest income compared to non-interest expenses, return on equity, and provisions for loan losses have significantly negative correlations with bank failure. However, loan ratios, non-performing loans, and fixed assets all have significantly positive correlations with bank failure. In addition, the accuracy of the logistic model for banks from NAFTA countries provides the best prediction accuracy regarding bank failure.

Risk factors for the increasing trend in low birth weight among live births born by vaginal delivery, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for low birth weight (LBW) among live births by vaginal delivery and to determine if the disappearance of the association between LBW and socioeconomic factors was due to confounding by cesarean section. METHODS: Data were obtained from two population-based cohorts of singleton live births in Ribeirão Preto, Southeastern Brazil. The first one comprised 4,698 newborns from June 1978 to May 1979 and the second included 1,399 infants born from May to August 1994. The risks for LBW were tested in a logistic model, including the interaction of the year of survey and all independent variables under analysis. RESULTS: The incidence of LBW among vaginal deliveries increased from 7.8% in 1978--79 to 10% in 1994. The risk was higher for: female or preterm infants; newborns of non-cohabiting mothers; newborns whose mothers had fewer prenatal visits or few years of education; first-born infants; and those who had smoking mothers. The interaction of the year of survey with gestational age indicated that the risk of LBW among preterm infants fell from 17.75 to 8.71 in 15 years. The mean birth weight decreased more significantly among newborns from qualified families, who also had the highest increase in preterm birth and non-cohabitation. CONCLUSIONS: LBW among vaginal deliveries increased mainly due to a rise in the proportion of preterm births and non-cohabiting mothers. The association between cesarean section and LBW tended to cover up socioeconomic differences in the likelihood of LBW. When vaginal deliveries were analyzed independently, these socioeconomic differences come up again.

Voluntary HIV counseling and testing during prenatal care in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Voluntary HIV counseling and testing are provided to all Brazilian pregnant women with the purpose of reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The purpose of the study was to assess characteristics of HIV testing and identify factors associated with HIV counseling and testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out comprising 1,658 mothers living in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Biological, reproductive and social variables were obtained from mothers by means of a standardized questionnaire. Being counseling about HIV testing was the dependent variable. Confidence intervals, chi-square test and hierarchical logistic model were used to determine the association between counseling and maternal variables. RESULTS: Of 1,658 mothers interviewed, 1,603 or 96.7% (95% CI: 95.7-97.5) underwent HIV testing, and 51 or 3.1% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) were not tested. Four (0.2%) refused to undergo testing after counseling. Of 51 women not tested in this study, 30 had undergone the testing previously. Of 1,603 women tested, 630 or 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9-41.7) received counseling, 947 or 59.2% (95% CI: 56.6-61.5) did not, and 26 (1.6%) did not inform. Low income, lack of prenatal care, late beginning of prenatal care, use of rapid testing, and receiving prenatal in the public sector were variables independently associated with a lower probability of getting counseling about HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed the high rate of prenatal HIV testing in Porto Alegre. However, women coming from less privileged social groups were less likely to receive information and benefit from counseling.

Risk factors for sudden infant death syndrome in a developing country

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether previously identified risk factors for sudden death syndrome have a significant impact in a developing country. METHODS: Retrospective longitudinal case-control study carried out in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil. Cases (N=39) were infants born between 1996 and 2000 who died suddenly and unexpectedly at home during sleep and were diagnosed with sudden death syndrome. Controls (N=117) were infants matched by age and sex who died in hospitals due to other conditions. Data were collected from postmortem examination records and questionnaires answers. A conditional logistic model was used to identify factors associated with the outcome. RESULTS: Mean age at death of cases was 3.2 months. The frequencies of infants regarding gestational age, breastfeeding and regular medical visits were similar in both groups. Sleeping position for most cases and controls was the lateral one. Supine sleeping position was found for few infants in both groups. Maternal variables, age below 20 years (OR=2, 95% CI: 1.1; 5.1) and smoking of more than 10 cigarettes per day during pregnancy (OR=3, 95% CI: 1.3; 6.4), significantly increased the risk for the syndrome. Socioeconomic characteristics were similar in both groups and did not affect risk. CONCLUSIONS: Infant-maternal and socioeconomic profiles of cases in a developing country closely resembled the profile described in the literature, and risk factors were similar as well. However, individual characteristics were identified as risks in the population studied, such as smoking during pregnancy and maternal age below 20 years.

Exposure to acellular blood products and risk of HIV infection in hemophiliacs from Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Results of a HIV prevalence study conducted in hemophiliacs from Belo Horizonte, Brazil are presented. History of exposure to acellular blood components was determined for the five year period prior to entry in the study, which occurred during 1986 and 1987. Patients with coagulations disorders (hemophilia A = 132, hemophilia B = 16 and coagulation disorders other than hemophilia = 16) were transfused with liquid cryoprecipitate, locally produced, lyophilized cryoprecipitate, imported from São Paulo (Brazil) and factor VIII and IX, imported from Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), Europe, and United States. Thirty six (22%) tested HIV seropositive. The univariate and multivariate analysis (logistic model) demonstrated that the risk of HIV infection during the study period was associated with the total units of acellular blood components transfused. In addition, the proportional contribution of the individual components to the total acellular units transfused, namely a increase in factor VIII/IX and lyophilized cryoprecipitate proportions, were found to be associated with HIV seropositivity. This analysis suggest that not only the total amount of units was an important determinant of HIV infection, but that the risk was also associated with the specific component of blood transfused

Awareness of visceral leishmaniasis and its relationship to canine infection in riverside endemic areas in Northeastern Brazil

IntroductionAn awareness of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is necessary to encourage the population to participate in prevention and control in collaboration with more efficient, centrally organized health programs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the awareness of the riverside population regarding VL and the association between awareness and the prevalence of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL).MethodsIn total, 71 people living in riverside areas in the City of Mossoró in State of Rio Grande do Norte participated of the study, and 71 dogs were tested for CVL by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Association analysis of several variables related to knowledge of the riverside population regarding CVL positivity was performed, yielding odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), and significance was determined using chi-square (χ2) and Fisher's exact tests.ResultsAmong individuals whose dogs tested positive for CVL, 60% did not know the cure for CVL, and these subjects were three times more likely to have a dog test positive for CVL than those who were aware the cure for CVL. Knowledge of CVL cure was the only variable that remained in the logistic model after the successive removal of variables, with an adjusted OR of 3.11 (95%CI: 1.1-8,799; p=0.032).ConclusionsInsufficient awareness regarding VL in riverside areas with CVL-positive dogs was associated with increased rates of canine infection, which suggests that changes in habits and the adoption of attitudes and preventive practices may contribute to the control and prevention of this disease. This study reinforces the need to invest in better health education programs regarding VL.

Risk factors associated with the transmissionof Brazilian spotted fever in the Piracicaba river basin, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION : Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) is a disease transmitted by ticks for which the etiological agent is Rickettsia rickettsii. The present essay evaluates the risk factors associated with the transmission of cases of BSF in the time period between 2003 and 2013 in the Piracicaba river basin, state of São Paulo. METHODS : This essay presents a retrospective study to identify the factors associated with the transmission of cases of BSF among all suspected cases identified by the System for Epidemiological Surveillance of São Paulo (CVE). After the description of temporal distribution (onset of symptoms) and the environmental and demographic variations of the confirmed and discarded cases, a multiple logistic regression model was applied. RESULTS : We searched 569 probable locations of infection (PLI) with 210 (37%) confirmed cases of BSF and 359 (63%) discarded cases. The associated variables for the confirmation of BSF in the multiple logistic model using a confidence interval (CI) of 95% were age (OR = 1.025 CI: 1.015-1.035), the presence of Amblyomma sculptum in the environment (OR = 1.629 CI: 1.097-2.439), the collection of ticks from horses (OR = 1.939 CI: 0.999-3.764), the presence of capybaras (OR = 1.467 CI: 1.009-2.138), an urban environment (OR = 1.515 CI: 1.036-2.231), and the existence of a dirty pasture (OR = 1.759 CI: 1.028-3.003). CONCLUSIONS : The factors associated with the confirmation of BSF cases included an urban environment, age, presence of the A. sculptum vector, the collection of ticks from horses, the presence of a capybara population, and a dirty pasture environment.

Acute myocardial infarction: clinical and epidemiological profile and factors associated with in-hospital death in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro

OBJECTIVE: To study the factors associated with the risk of in-hospital death in acute myocardial infarction in the Brazilian public health system in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: Sectional study of a sample with 391 randomly drawn medical records of the hospitalizations due to acute myocardial infarction recorded in the hospital information system in 1997. RESULTS: The diagnosis was confirmed in 91.7% of the cases; 61.5% males; age = 60.2 ± 2.4 years; delta time until hospitalization of 11 hours; 25.3% were diabetic; 58.1% were hypertensive; 82.6% were in Killip I class. In-hospital mortality was 20.6%. Thrombolysis was used in 19.5%; acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) 86.5%; beta-blockers 49%; angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors 63.3%; calcium channel blockers 30.5%. Factors associated with increased death: age (61-80 years: OR=2.5; > 80 years: OR=9.6); Killip class (II: OR=1.9; III: OR=6; IV: OR=26.5); diabetes (OR=2.4); ventricular tachycardia (OR=8.5); ventricular fibrillation (OR=34); recurrent ischemia (OR=2.7). The use of ASA (OR=0.3), beta-blockers (OR=0.3), and ACE inhibitors (OR=0.4) was associated with a reduction in the chance of death. CONCLUSION: General lethality was high and some interventions of confirmed efficacy were underutilizated. The logistic model showed the beneficial effect of beta-blockers, and ACE inhibitors on the risk of in-hospital death.

Factors associated with 56-day non-return rate in dairy cattle

The objective of this work was to identify factors associated with the 56-day non-return rate (56-NRR) in dairy herds in the Galician region, Spain, and to estimate it for individual Holstein bulls. The experiment was carried out in herds originated from North-West Spain, from September 2008 to August 2009. Data of the 76,440 first inseminations performed during this period were gathered. Candidate factors were tested for their association with the 56-NRR by using a logistic model (binomial). Afterwards, 37 sires with a minimum of 150 first performed inseminations were individually evaluated. Logistic models were also estimated for each bull, and predicted individual 56-NRR rate values were calculated as a solution for the model parameters. Logistic regression found four major factors associated with 56-NRR in lactating cows: age at insemination, days from calving to insemination, milk production level at the time of insemination, and herd size. First-service conception rate, when a particular sire was used, was higher for heifers (0.71) than for lactating cows (0.52). Non-return rates were highly variable among bulls. Asignificant part of the herd-level variation of 56-NRR of Holstein cattle seems attributable to the service sire. High correlation level between observed and predicted 56-NRR was found.

Temporal progress of southern rust in maize under different environmental conditions

The progress of the severity of southern rust in maize (Zea mays) caused by Puccinia polysora was quantified in staggered plantings in different geographical areas in Brazil, from October to May, over two years (1995-1996 and 1996-1997). The logistic model, fitted to the data, better described the disease progress curves than the Gompertz model. Four components of the disease progress curves (maximum disease severity; area under the disease progress curve, AUDPC; area under the disease progress curve around the inflection point, AUDPCi; and epidemic rate) were used to compare the epidemics in different areas and at different times of planting. The AUDPC, AUDPCi, and the epidemic rate were analyzed in relation to the weather (temperature, relative humidity, hours of relative humidity >90%, and rainfall) and recorded during the trials. Disease severity reached levels greater than 30% in Piracicaba and Guaíra in the plantings between December and January. Lower values of AUDPC occurred in later plantings at both locations. The epidemic rate was positively correlated (P < 0.05) with the mean daily temperatures and negatively correlated with hours of relative humidity >90%. The AUDPC was not correlated with any weather variable. The AUDPCi was negatively related to both variables connected to humidity, but not to rain. Long periods (mostly >13 h day-1) of relative humidity >90% (that corresponded to leaf wetness) occurred in Castro. Severity of southern rust in maize has always been low in Castro, thus the negative correlations between disease and the two humidity variables.

Epidemiological analysis of clones and cultivars of potato in soil naturally infested with Ralstonia solanacearum biovar 2

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the progress of Ralstonia solanacearum bacterial potato wilt biovar 2 (race 3) in 14 potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) cultivars or clones, the resistance of potato clone MB 03 (selected in Brasília, Brazil) to race 1 of R. solanacearum, and the occurrence of the pathogen in tubers harvested from asymptomatic potato plants. During the spring (September to the end of November in the southern hemisphere) of 1999 and 2000, 14 cultivars or clones were grown in a field naturally infested with R. solanacearum biovar 2, in Caxias do Sul, RS. The number of wilted potato plants was recorded each week and a disease progress curve plotted, the resistance of the potato genotypes to bacterial wilt being evaluated by determining the area under the curve. Various models were evaluated to fit the curves, with the logistic model being the best fit. At the end of each growing season tubers produced by asymptomatic plants were harvested and stored until budding and then tested for the presence of R. solanacearum. Cultivar Cruza 148 and clone MB 03 were the most resistant but both showed tubers with latent infections. The epidemiological implications of the incidence of R. solanacearum biovar 2 (race 3) in potato crops, as well as the resistance of certain genotypes that may harbor latent infections, are important aspects to be considered in the integrated management of bacterial wilt.

Progress of Asian soybean rust and airborne urediniospores of Phakopsora pachyrhizi in southern Brazil

Asian soybean rust, caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, was reported at epidemic levels in 2003/2004 and is the main soybean disease in Brazil. The aim of this study was to investigate the spread of Asian soybean rust and to quantify airborne urediniospores in the region of Campo Mourão, Paraná State, Brazil. Three experiments were conducted under field conditions during the 2007/08 and 2008/09 crop seasons. Using the disease gradient method, provided by the application of increasing levels of the fungicide tebuconazole, four Asian soybean rust epidemics at different intensities were obtained in each experiment. To quantify the urediniospores, weathercock-type spore collectors were installed during and between the two crop seasons. Disease progress curves were plotted for each epidemic, and maximum severity was estimated. The curves were fit to the logistic model, which provided higher coefficients of determination and more randomly distributed residuals plotted over time. Analyses of the area under the disease progress curve showed that the largest epidemics occurred in the 2007/2008 crop season and that the progress rates were higher for severity, even among plants protected with the fungicide. The number of urediniospores collected in the air was related to the presence of soybean plants in the cultivated crops. The quantity of urediniospores was also positively correlated to the disease severity and incidence, as well as to cumulative rainfall and favorable days for P. Pachyrhizi infection.

Evaluation of resistance in a selected field strain of Haemonchus contortus to ivermectin and moxidectin using the Larval Migration on Agar Test

Haemonchus contortus is one of the most common and economically significant causes of disease in small ruminants worldwide, and the control programs of parasitic nematodes - including H. contortus - rely mostly on the use of anthelmintic drugs. The consequence of the use of this, as the sole sanitary strategy to avoid parasite infections, was the reduction of the efficacy of all chemotherapeutic products with a heavy selection for resistance. The widespread of anthelmintic resistance and the difficulty of its early diagnosis has been a major concern for the sustainable parasite management on farms. The objective of this research was to determine and compare the ivermectin (IVM) and moxidectin (MOX) effect in a selected field strain of H. contortus with a known resistance status, using the in vitro larval migration on agar test (LMAT). Third stage larvae of the selected isolate were obtained from faecal cultures of experimentally infected sheep and incubated in eleven increasing diluted concentrations of IVM and MOX (6, 12, 24, 48, 96, 192, 384, 768, 1536, 3072 and 6144µg/mL). The dose-response sigmoidal curves were obtained using the R² value of >0.90 and the lethal concentration (LC50) dose for the tested anthelmintic drugs using a four-parameter logistic model. The LC50 value for MOX was significantly lower than IVM (1.253µg/mL and 91.06µg/mL), identifying the H. contortus isolate as considerably less susceptible to IVM compared to MOX. Furthermore, the LMAT showed a high consistency (p<0.0001) and provided to be a useful diagnostic tool for monitoring the resistance status of IVM and MOX in H. contortus field isolate, as well as it may be used for official routine drug monitoring programs under the Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) guidance.

Effect of dose and application site on quinclorac absorption by barnyardgrass biotypes

This work aimed to evaluate the uptake and translocation of quinclorac in function of application sites (shoot or roots) by Echinochloa crusgalli biotypes resistant and susceptible to this herbicide. The treatments consisted of quinclorac doses (0; 0.5; 1; 2; 4; 16 and 64 ppm), applied on the shoot or roots of seedlings of barnyardgrass biotypes. The experimental units consisted of plastic cups containing 250 cm³ of sand. The treatments were applied 10 days after emergence, when barnyardgrass plants reached a 2- to 3- leaf growth stage. The barnyardgrass biotypes were irrigated with nutritive solution weekly and maintained for 40 days after emergence, when length, fresh and dry matter of shoot and roots were evaluated. Variance analysis was carried out using the F test at 5% probability, and in case of significance, a non-linear regression analysis was also carried out using a three-parameter logistic model. In the susceptible biotype, quinclorac was more absorbed by the roots than by the shoot. Comparing dry mass production of the different plant parts of the susceptible biotype per application site, it was verified that quinclorac action is higher when applied to the plant roots. However, for the resistant biotype, it was not possible to determine the dose causing 50% reduction in dry mass accumulation (GR50) and in the resistance index (RI) between both biotypes, due to its high resistance to quinclorac (128 times the recommended dosage). The results showed that quinclorac resistance by the evaluated biotype is not due to differences in the absorption site, strongly suggesting that the resistance acquired by the biotype may result from alteration in the target site.

Sorption of fomesafen in Brazilian soils

The study of the dynamics of a herbicide in the soil focus on the interactions with environmental components to obtain agronomic efficiency, ensuring selectivity to the culture and risk reduction of environmental impact. This study evaluated the sorption process of fomesafen in the Brazilian soils Ultisol, Cambisol, and Organosol. Besides soil, washed sand was used as an inert material for determination of the sorption ratio of fomesafen in the soil. The bioassay method was applied, using Sorghum vulgare plants as bio-indicator of herbicide presence. Plant poisoning evaluation and harvest for dry matter determination were carried out 21 days after sorghum sowing. To calculate C50, the nonlinear log-logistic model was applied and sorption ratios of the herbicide were obtained in different soils. The decreasing sorption ratio of formesafen in the soils was: Organosol > Ultisol > Cambisol. It was concluded that the contents of organic matter and clay in the soils were the attributes that most influenced fomesafen sorption.