Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Sexual behavior of the digger wasp Sphex ingens Smith (Hymenoptera, Sphecidae)

A species' mating system depends on its spatial distribution and temporal availability of mating opportunities, as well as on the resources that create these opportunities. In addition, for many species, courtship is driven by specific behaviors that precede and follow copulation. Although Sphex ingens is a taxonomically well known species of digger wasp, its ecology and behavior remain poorly known. Hence, we analyzed patterns and trends of sexual behavior, in order to understand whether courtship can persist in a polygamous mating system. We monitored by video wasp populations in Ilha Grande, southeastern Brazil. Based on the observed behaviors, we calculated stochastic probabilities with a Markov chain to infer on behavioral trends. We recorded four behavioral phases based on 19,196 behavioral acts observed in 224 copulation attempts. There were no significant differences in common behavioral acts between males and females. The copulation patterns, conflicts, and trends observed in S. ingens clearly show the influence of sexual selection in its promiscuous mating system.

DYNAMICS AND PREDICTION OF DIAMETRIC STRUCTURE IN TWO ATLANTIC FOREST FRAGMENTS IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL

ABSTRACT Monitoring analyses aim to understand the processes that drive changes in forest structure and, along with prediction studies, may assist in the management planning and conservation of forest remnants. The objective of this study was to analyze the forest dynamics in two Atlantic rainforest fragments in Pernambuco, Brazil, and to predict their future forest diameter structure using the Markov chain model. We used continuous forest inventory data from three surveys in two forest fragments of 87 ha (F1) and 388 ha (F2). We calculated the annual rates of mortality and recruitment, the mean annual increment, and the basal area for each of the 3-year periods. Data from the first and second surveys were used to project the third inventory measurements, which were compared to the observed values in the permanent plots using chi-squared tests (a = 0.05). In F1, a decrease in the number of individuals was observed due to mortality rates being higher than recruitment rates; however, there was an increase in the basal area. In this fragment, the fit to the Markov model was adequate. In F2, there was an increase in both the basal area and the number of individuals during the 6-year period due to the recruitment rate exceeding the mortality rate. For this fragment, the fit of the model was unacceptable. Hence, for the studied fragments, the demographic rates influenced the stem density more than the floristic composition. Yet, even with these intense dynamics, both fragments showed active growth.

Frequency of Infection of Lutzomyia Phlebotomines with Leishmania braziliensis in a Brazilian Endemic Area as Assessed by Pinpoint Capture and Polymerase Chain Reaction

Leishmania infected of Lutzomyia spp. are rare in endemic areas. We tested the hypothesis that there is clustering of infected vectors by combining pinpoint capture with sensitive L. braziliensis kDNA minicircle specific PCR/dot blot in an endemic area in the State of Bahia. Thirty out of 335 samples (10 to 20 sand flies/sample; total of 4,027 female sand flies) were positive by PCR analysis and dot blot leading to a underestimated overall rate of 0.4% positive phlebotomines. However, 83.3% of the positive samples were contributed by a single sector out of four sectors of the whole studied area. This resulted in a rate of 1.5% Leishmania positive phlebotomines for this sector, far above rates of other sectors. Incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases for this sector was about twice that for other sectors. Our results show that there is a non-homogeneous distribution of Leishmania-infected vectors. Such a clustering may have implications in control strategies against leishmaniasis, and reinforces the necessity of understanding the ecological and geographical factors involved in leishmanial transmission.

Supply chain management

Nos últimos anos, a economia mundial e a economia brasileira têm sofrido mudanças importantes. Fusões, aquisições e alianças estratégicas têm se multiplicado. Parte considerável destas mudanças relaciona-se com profundas alterações nos sistemas de valores de todos os segmentos industriais. A busca da competitividade relaciona-se cada vez mais com a busca do ótimo sistêmico além das fronteiras da empresa. Neste contexto, a administração logística ganha nova dimensão, envolvendo a integração de todas as atividades ao longo da cadeia de valores e do sistema de valores, das matérias-primas ao cliente final. O objetivo deste trabalho é (re)situar a administração logística no contexto de mudanças, enfatizando a metodologia da gestão da cadeia de demanda (supply chain management).

GREEN SUPPLY CHAIN: PROTAGONISTA OU COADJUVANTE NO BRASIL?

Questões ambientais passaram a ser introduzidas com maior frequência nos negócios empresariais. Quanto à cadeia de suprimentos, Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM) surge como novo enfoque à responsabilidade das empresas com o meio ambiente. Este artigo objetiva analisar a difusão do conceito e das práticas de GSCM no cenário brasileiro. Para tanto, foram realizadas entrevistas com especialistas do tema cadeia de suprimentos na área de Administração no Brasil. Os resultados indicam que as razões para o lento desenvolvimento do conceito podem relacionar-se com características do mercado nacional, foco empresarial em aspectos internos, falta de legislação rígida e baixa pressão dos consumidores. Especialistas percebem, entretanto, boas perspectivas para o futuro das discussões da temática no País, em virtude da Política Nacional dos Resíduos Sólidos, de pressões do mercado internacional e da busca por certificação ambiental. Este estudo procurou fomentar novas discussões sobre GSCM no Brasil.

SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE ANALYSIS: A BRAZILIAN AUTOMOTIVE CASE

Supply chain (SC) resilience and flexibility are important research topics receiving growing attention. However, the academic literature needs empirical studies on SC resilience capable of investigating the inter-organizational components of flexibility along different tiers. Therefore, this paper analyzes the main lack of flexibilities in three Brazilian automotive SCs that limit their resilience and therefore their capacity to better support and meet the demand changes in the marketplace. A multi-tier case study approach is adopted. Research findings identify lack of flexibilities in different tiers that inhibit the SC resilience as well as manufacturing and SC flexibilities that build SC resilience. The findings also highlight that the same SC may have the flexibility to be resilient for one of its products but not for another product, what sheds new lights on the academic literature. Finally, flexible SCs should be designed to increase SC resilience to cope with mishaps as significant demand changes.

EVALUATING THE EFFICIENCY PROGRESS WITH TECHNOLOGY IN A SPANISH HOTEL CHAIN

ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes the changes in the total factor productivity index of a Spanish hotel chain in the period from 2007 to 2010 with the purpose of identifying efficiency patterns for the chain in a period of financial crisis. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) Malmquist productivity index was used to estimate productivity change in 38 hotels of the AC chain. Results reveal AC hotels' efficiency trends and, therefore, their competitiveness in the recession period; they also show the changes experienced in these hotels' total productivity and its components: technological and efficiency changes. Positive efficiency changes were due to positive technical efficiency rather than technological efficiency. The recession period certainly influenced the performance of AC Hotels, which focused on organizational changes rather than investing in technology.

Detection of hepatitis B virus DNA by the polymerase chain reaction in anti-HBE positive chronic hepatitis B patients

Detection of HBV-DNA by PCR was compared with other serological markers (HBsAg, HBeAg and anti-HBe) in a series of49 Chronic Hepatitis B patients, including 12 with a spontaneous clearance of HBsAg. None of these HBsAg negative cases were PCR positive, but 33/37 (89.2%) HBsAg positive cases were PCR positive (p < 0.0001). Among HBsAg positive samples, nine cases were HBeAg positive and anti-HBe negative, all of them PCR positive. Other 3 patients were HBeAg and anti-HBe positive and these cases were also found PCR positive. A third group included 21 patients anti-HBe positive and HBeAg negative: 19 of them were PCR positive and 2 were PCR negative. The last 4 cases were HBeAg and anti-HBe negative, two of them were PCR positive. The detection of anti-HBe viremic cases in the present series suggest that preC variants could occur in our country. In conclusion, the integrated phase o f chronic hepatitis B seems to be less frequent than it was assumed, when only HBeAg or dot blot hybridization techniques were used. The new term "low replication phase" might favorably replace the former "integrated phase".

Detection and identification of dengue virus isolates from Brazil by a simplified reverse transcription - polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) method

We show here a simplified RT-PCR for identification of dengue virus types 1 and 2. Five dengue virus strains, isolated from Brazilian patients, and yellow fever vaccine 17DD as a negative control, were used in this study. C6/36 cells were infected and supernatants were collected after 7 days. The RT-PCR, done in a single reaction vessel, was carried out following a 1/10 dilution of virus in distilled water or in a detergent mixture containing Nonidet P40. The 50 µl assay reaction mixture included 50 pmol of specific primers amplifying a 482 base pair sequence for dengue type 1 and 210 base pair sequence for dengue type 2. In other assays, we used dengue virus consensus primers having maximum sequence similarity to the four serotypes, amplifying a 511 base pair sequence. The reaction mixture also contained 0.1 mM of the four deoxynucleoside triphosphates, 7.5 U of reverse transcriptase, 1U of thermostable Taq DNA polymerase. The mixture was incubated for 5 minutes at 37ºC for reverse transcription followed by 30 cycles of two-step PCR amplification (92ºC for 60 seconds, 53ºC for 60 seconds) with slow temperature increment. The PCR products were subjected to 1.7% agarose gel electrophoresis and visualized by UV light after staining with ethidium bromide solution. Low virus titer around 10 3, 6 TCID50/ml was detected by RT-PCR for dengue type 1. Specific DNA amplification was observed with all the Brazilian dengue strains by using dengue virus consensus primers. As compared to other RT-PCRs, this assay is less laborious, done in a shorter time, and has reduced risk of contamination

Differentiation of pathogenic and non-pathogenic leptospires by means of the polymerase chain reaction

A polymerase chain reaction was carried out to detect pathogenic leptospires isolated from animals and humans in Argentina. A double set of primers (G1/G2, B64-I/B64-II), described before, were used to amplify by PCR a DNA fragment from serogroups belonging to Leptospira interrogans but did not allow to detect saprophytic strains isolated from soil and water (L. biflexa). This fact represents an advantage since it makes possible the differentiation of pathogenic from non-pathogenic leptospires in cultures. The sensitivity of this assay has been determined, allowing to detect just only 10 leptospires in the reaction tube. Those sets of primers generated either a 285 bp or 360 bp fragment, depending on the pathogenic strain

Detection of mycoplasmas in urethral swabs from HIV-1 infected patients and control individuals using culture techniques and polymerase chain reaction

The objective of the present study was to determine the prevalence of certain mycoplasma species, i.e., Mycoplasma hominis, Ureaplasma urealyticum and Mycoplasma penetrans, in urethral swabs from HIV-1 infected patients compared to swabs from a control group. Mycoplasmas were detected by routine culture techniques and by the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) technique, using 16SrRNA generic primers of conserved region and Mycoplasma penetrans specific primers. The positivity rates obtained with the two methods were comparable. Nevertheless, PCR was more sensitive, while the culture techniques allowed the quantification of the isolates. The results showed no significant difference (p < 0.05) in positivity rates between the methods used for mycoplasma detection.

Diagnosis of hepatitis C virus in Brazilian blood donors using a reverse transcriptase nested polymerase chain reaction: comparison with enzyme immunoassay and recombinant protein immunoblot assay

Screening blood donations for anti-HCV antibodies and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) serum levels generally prevents the transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) by transfusion. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the efficiency of the enzyme immunoassay (EIA) screening policy in identifying potentially infectious blood donors capable to transmit hepatitis C through blood transfusion. We have used a reverse transcriptase (RT)-nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to investigate the presence of HCV-RNA in blood donors. The prevalence of HCV-RNA positive individuals was compared with the recombinant immunoblot assay (RIBA-2) results in order to assess the usefulness of both tests as confirmatory assays. Both tests results were also compared with the EIA-2 OD/C ratio (optical densities of the samples divided by the cut off value). ALT results were expressed as the ALT quotient (qALT), calculated dividing the ALT value of the samples by the maximum normal value (53UI/l) for the method. Donors (n=178) were divided into five groups according to their EIA anti-HCV status and qALT: group A (EIA > or = 3, ALT<1), group B (EIA > or = 3, ALT>1), group C (1<=EIA<3, ALT<1), group D (1<=EIA<3, ALT>1) and group E (EIA<=0.7). HCV sequences were detected by RT-nested PCR, using primers for the most conserved region of viral genome. RIBA-2 was applied to the same samples. In group A (n=6), all samples were positive by RT-nested PCR and RIBA-2. Among 124 samples in group B, 120 (96.8%) were RIBA-2 positive and 4 (3.2%) were RIBA-2 indeterminate but were seropositive for antigen c22.3. In group B, 109 (87.9%) of the RIBA-2 positive samples were also RT-nested PCR positive, as well as were all RIBA-2 indeterminate samples. In group C, all samples (n=9) were RT-nested PCR negative: 4 (44.4%) were also RIBA-2 negative, 4 (44.4%) were RIBA-2 positive and 1 (11.1%) was RIBA-2 indeterminate. HCV-RNA was detected by RT-nested PCR in 3 (37.5%) out of 8 samples in group D. Only one of them was also RIBA-2 positive, all the others were RIBA-2 indeterminate. All of the group E samples (controls) were RT- nested PCR and RIBA-2 negative. Our study suggests a strong relation between anti-HCV EIA-2 ratio > or = 3 and detectable HCV-RNA by RT-nested PCR. We have also noted that blood donors with RIBA-2 indeterminate presented a high degree of detectable HCV-RNA using RT-nested PCR (75%), especially when the c22.3 band was detected.