Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in an Ultisol treated with sewage sludge and cultivated with castor bean

Organic residue application into soil alter the emission of gases to atmosphere and CO2, CH4, N2O may contribute to increase the greenhouse effect. This experiment was carried out in a restoration area on a dystrophic Ultisol (PVAd) to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soil under castor bean cultivation, treated with sewage sludge (SS) or mineral fertilizer. The following treatments were tested: control without N; FertMin = mineral fertilizer; SS5 = 5 t ha-1 SS (37.5 kg ha-1 N); SS10 = 10 t ha-1 SS (75 kg ha-1 N); and SS20 = 20 t ha-1 SS (150 kg ha-1 N). The amount of sludge was based on the recommended rate of N for castor bean (75 kg ha-1), the N level of SS and the mineralization fraction of N from SS. Soil gas emission was measured for 21 days. Sewage sludge and mineral fertilizers altered the CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes. Soil moisture had no effect on GHG emissions and the gas fluxes was statistically equivalent after the application of FertMin and of 5 t ha-1 SS. The application of the entire crop N requirement in the form of SS practically doubled the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the C equivalent emissions in comparison with FertMin treatments.

Mitigation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from flood-irrigated rice by no incorporation of winter crop residues into the soil

Winter cover crops are sources of C and N in flooded rice production systems, but very little is known about the effect of crop residue management and quality on soil methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. This study was conducted in pots in a greenhouse to evaluate the influence of crop residue management (incorporated into the soil or left on the soil surface) and the type of cover-crop residues (ryegrass and serradella) on CH4 and N2O emissions from a flooded Albaqualf soil cultivated with rice (Oryza sativa L.). The closed chamber technique was used for air sampling and the CH4 and N2O concentrations were analyzed by gas chromatography. Soil solution was sampled at two soil depths (2 and 20 cm), simultaneously to air sampling, and the contents of dissolved organic C (DOC), NO3-, NH4+, Mn2+, and Fe2+ were analyzed. Methane and N2O emissions from the soil where crop residues had been left on the surface were lower than from soil with incorporated residues. The type of crop residue had no effect on the CH4 emissions, while higher N2O emissions were observed from serradella (leguminous) than from ryegrass, but only when the residues were left on the soil surface. The more intense soil reduction verified in the deeper soil layer (20 cm), as evidenced by higher contents of reduced metal species (Mn2+ and Fe2+), and the close relationship between CH4 emission and the DOC contents in the deeper layer indicated that the sub-surface layer was the main CH4 source of the flooded soil with incorporated crop residues. The adoption of management strategies in which crop residues are left on the soil surface is crucial to minimize soil CH4 and N2O emissions from irrigated rice fields. In these production systems, CH4 accounts for more than 90 % of the partial global warming potential (CH4+N2O) and, thus, should be the main focus of research.

EFFECT OF RICE STRAW AND NITRATE LEVELS IN SOIL SOLUTION ON NITROUS OXIDE EMISSION

Among the greenhouse gases, nitrous oxide (N2O) is considered important, in view of a global warming potential 296 times greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2) and its dynamics strongly depend on the availability of C and mineral N in the soil. The understanding of the factors that define emissions is essential to develop mitigation strategies. This study evaluated the dynamics of N2O emissions after the application of different rice straw amounts and nitrate levels in soil solution. Pots containing soil treated with sodium nitrate rates (0, 50 and 100 g kg-1 of NO−3-N) and rice straw levels (0, 5 and 10 Mg ha-1), i.e., nine treatments, were subjected to anaerobic conditions. The results showed that N2O emissions were increased by the addition of greater NO−3 amounts and reduced by large straw quantities applied to the soil. On the 1st day after flooding (DAF), significantly different N2O emissions were observed between the treatments with and without NO−3 addition, when straw had no significant influence on N2O levels. Emissions peaked on the 4th DAF in the treatments with highest NO−3-N addition. At this moment, straw application negatively affected N2O emissions, probably due to NO−3 immobilization. There were also alterations in other soil electrochemical characteristics, e.g., higher straw levels raised the Fe, Mn and dissolved C contents. These results indicate that a lowering of NO−3 concentration in the soil and the increase of straw incorporation can decrease N2O emissions.

Carbon footprint of the colombian cocoa production

ABSTRACT Cocoa is an important commercial crop in the tropics; and estimating the carbon emissions in the producing-areas is a worthwhile effort. The main goal of the current paper was to evaluate the carbon footprint (CF) per kilogram of Colombian cocoa bean produced under conventional and agroforestry managements, following the methods proposed by PAS 2050. In this research, we compared our results to other worldwide researches, showing an overview of the current limitations and challenges involving the CF researches. Our results showed that all calculated environmental burdens were lower for the conventional management. In the agroforestry practice, composting of cocoa pod husks contributed with approximately 34.00E+00 g methane and 2.55E+00 g nitrous oxide emissions per kilogram of cocoa grain produced. Therefore, such practice could reduce CF by 6.00E+00 kg CO2 Eq kg-1, which is certainly a significant amount. These cocoa residues left on the ground have a strong impact on CF of both studied managements due to the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter, which represents more than 85% of emissions. We concluded that both evaluated production processes can emit environmental burdens at the same magnitude. Definitely, there is a widespread need to improve cocoa production system by changing old and less productive plants to the so called clones to ensure cocoa yield and quality worldwide.

Postharvest nitrous oxide emissions from a subtropical oxisol as influenced by summer crop residues and their management

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important non-CO2 greenhouse gas and soil management systems should be evaluated for their N2O mitigation potential. This research evaluated a long-term (22 years) experiment testing the effect of soil management systems on N2O emissions in the postharvest period (autumn) from a subtropical Rhodic Hapludox at the research center FUNDACEP, in Cruz Alta, state of Rio Grande do Sul. Three treatments were evaluated, one under conventional tillage with soybean residues (CTsoybean) and two under no-tillage with soybean (NTsoybean) and maize residues (NTmaize). N2O emissions were measured eight times within 24 days (May 2007) using closed static chambers. Gas flows were obtained based on the relations between gas concentrations in the chamber at regular intervals (0, 15, 30, 45 min) analyzed by gas chromatography. After soybean harvest, accumulated N2O emissions in the period were approximately three times higher in the untilled soil (164 mg m-2 N) than under CT (51 mg m-2 N), with a short-lived N2O peak of 670 mg m-2 h-1 N. In contrast, soil N2O emissions in NT were lower after maize than after soybean, with a N2O peak of 127 g m-2 h-1 N. The multivariate analysis of N2O fluxes and soil variables, which were determined simultaneously with air sampling, demonstrated that the main driving variables of soil N2O emissions were soil microbial activity, temperature, water-filled pore space, and NO3- content. To replace soybean monoculture, crop rotation including maize must be considered as a strategy to decrease soil N2O emissions from NT soils in Southern Brazil in a Autumn.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.