Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze spatial changes in the risk of AIDS and the relationship between AIDS incidence and socioeconomic variables in the state of Rondonia, Amazon region. METHODS A spatial, population case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil, based on 1,780 cases reported to the Epidemiological Surveillance System and controls based on demographic data from 1987 to 2006. The cases were grouped into five consecutive four-year periods. A generalized additive model was adjusted to the data; the dependent variable was the status of the individuals (case or control), and the independent variables were a bi-dimensional spline of the geographic coordinates and some municipality-level socioeconomic variables. The observed values of the Moran’s I test were compared to a reference distribution of values generated under conditions of spatial randomness. RESULTS AIDS risk shows a marked spatial and temporal pattern. The disease incidence is related to socioeconomic variables at the municipal level in Rondônia, such as urbanization and human capital. The highest incidence rates of AIDS are in municipalities along the BR-364 highway and calculations of the Moran’s I test show positive spatial correlation associated with proximity of the municipality to the highway in the third and fourth periods (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Incidence of the disease is higher in municipalities of greater economic wealth and urbanization, and in those municipalities bisected by Rondônia’s main roads. The rapid development associated with the opening up of once remote regions may be accompanied by an increase in these risks to health.

A time series analysis of meteorological factors and hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease in the Northern district of Guizhou Province, China

Findings on the effects of weather on health, especially the effects of ambient temperature on overall morbidity, remain inconsistent. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of meteorological factors (mainly air temperature) on daily hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Zunyi City, China, from January 1, 2007 to November 30, 2009. We used the generalized additive model with penalized splines to analyze hospital outpatient admissions, climatic parameters, and covariate data. Results show that, in Zunyi, air temperature was associated with hospital outpatient admission for CVD. When air temperature was less than 10°C, hospital outpatient admissions for CVD increased 1.07-fold with each increase of 1°C, and when air temperature was more than 10°C, an increase in air temperature by 1°C was associated with a 0.99-fold decrease in hospital outpatient admissions for CVD over the previous year. Our analyses provided statistically significant evidence that in China meteorological factors have adverse effects on the health of the general population. Further research with consistent methodology is needed to clarify the magnitude of these effects and to show which populations and individuals are vulnerable.

Air pollution and neonatal deaths in São Paulo, Brazil

Air pollution has been associated with health effects on different age groups. The present study was designed to assess the impact of daily changes in air pollutants (NO2, SO2, CO, O3, and particle matter (PM10)) on total number of daily neonatal deaths (those that occur between the first and the 28th days of life) in São Paulo, from January 1998 to December 2000, since adverse outcomes such as neonatal deaths associated with air pollution in Brazil have not been evaluated before. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were used and nonparametric smooth functions (loess) were adopted to control long-term trend, temperature, humidity, and short-term trends. A linear term was used for holidays. The association between air pollutants and neonatal deaths showed a short time lag. Interquartile range increases in PM10 (23.3 µg/m³) and SO2 (9.2 µg/m³) were associated with increases of 4% (95% CI, 2-6) and 6% (95% CI, 4-8), respectively. Instead of adopting a two-pollutant model we created an index to represent PM10 and SO2 effects. For an interquartile range increase in the index an increase of 6.3% (95% CI, 6.1-6.5) in neonatal deaths was observed. These results agree with previous studies performed by our group showing the deleterious effects of air pollutants during the perinatal period. The method reported here represents an alternative approach to analyze the relationship between highly correlated pollutants and public health problems, reinforcing the idea of the synergic effects of air pollutants in public health.

Association between NOx exposure and deaths caused by respiratory diseases in a medium-sized Brazilian city

Exposure to nitrogen oxides (NOx) emitted by burning fossil fuels has been associated with respiratory diseases. We aimed to estimate the effects of NOx exposure on mortality owing to respiratory diseases in residents of Taubaté, São Paulo, Brazil, of all ages and both sexes. This time-series ecological study from August 1, 2011 to July 31, 2012 used information on deaths caused by respiratory diseases obtained from the Health Department of Taubaté. Estimated daily levels of pollutants (NOx, particulate matter, ozone, carbon monoxide) were obtained from the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. These environmental variables were used to adjust the multipollutant model for apparent temperature. To estimate association between hospitalizations owing to asthma and air pollutants, generalized additive Poisson regression models were developed, with lags as much as 5 days. There were 385 deaths with a daily mean (±SD) of 1.05±1.03 (range: 0-5). Exposure to NOx was significantly associated with mortality owing to respiratory diseases: relative risk (RR)=1.035 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.008-1.063) for lag 2, RR=1.064 (95%CI: 1.017-1.112) lag 3, RR=1.055 (95%CI: 1.025-1.085) lag 4, and RR=1.042 (95%CI: 1.010-1.076) lag 5. A 3 µg/m3 reduction in NOx concentration resulted in a decrease of 10-18 percentage points in risk of death caused by respiratory diseases. Even at NOx concentrations below the acceptable standard, there is association with deaths caused by respiratory diseases.

The effects of air pollution on cardiovascular diseases: lag structures

OBJECTIVE: To assess the lag structure between air pollution exposure and elderly cardiovascular diseases hospital admissions, by gender. METHODS: Health data of people aged 64 years or older was stratified by gender in São Paulo city, Southeastern Brazil, from 1996 to 2001. Daily levels of air pollutants (CO, PM10, O3, NO2, and SO2) , minimum temperature, and relative humidity were also analyzed. It were fitted generalized additive Poisson regressions and used constrained distributed lag models adjusted for long time trend, weekdays, weather and holidays to assess the lagged effects of air pollutants on hospital admissions up to 20 days after exposure. RESULTS: Interquartile range increases in PM10 (26.21 mug/m³) and SO2 (10.73 mug/m³) were associated with 3.17% (95% CI: 2.09-4.25) increase in congestive heart failure and 0.89% (95% CI: 0.18-1.61) increase in total cardiovascular diseases at lag 0, respectively. Effects were higher among female group for most of the analyzed outcomes. Effects of air pollutants for different outcomes and gender groups were predominately acute and some "harvesting" were found. CONLUSIONS: The results show that cardiovascular diseases in São Paulo are strongly affected by air pollution.

Cervical cancer screening coverage in a high-incidence region

OBJECTIVE To analyze the coverage of a cervical cancer screening program in a city with a high incidence of the disease in addition to the factors associated with non-adherence to the current preventive program.METHODS A cross-sectional study based on household surveys was conducted. The sample was composed of women between 25 and 59 years of age of the city of Boa Vista, RR, Northern Brazil who were covered by the cervical cancer screening program. The cluster sampling method was used. The dependent variable was participation in a women’s health program, defined as undergoing at least one Pap smear in the 36 months prior to the interview; the explanatory variables were extracted from individual data. A generalized linear model was used.RESULTS 603 women were analyzed, with an mean age of 38.2 years (SD = 10.2). Five hundred and seventeen women underwent the screening test, and the prevalence of adherence in the last three years was up to 85.7% (95%CI 82.5;88.5). A high per capita household income and recent medical consultation were associated with the lower rate of not being tested in multivariate analysis. Disease ignorance, causes, and prevention methods were correlated with chances of non-adherence to the screening system; 20.0% of the women were reported to have undergone opportunistic and non-routine screening.CONCLUSIONS The informed level of coverage is high, exceeding the level recommended for the control of cervical cancer. The preventive program appears to be opportunistic in nature, particularly for the most vulnerable women (with low income and little information on the disease). Studies on the diagnostic quality of cervicovaginal cytology and therapeutic schedules for positive cases are necessary for understanding the barriers to the control of cervical cancer.

Artificial nest predation rates vary depending on visibility in the eastern Brazilian Amazon

Observational and experimental studies have shown that increased concealment of bird nests reduces nest predation rates. The objective of the present study was to evaluate differences in predation rates between two experimental manipulations of artificial ground nests (i.e., clearing an area around the artificial nest or leaving it as natural as possible), and test whether environmental variables also affected nest predation in an undisturbed area of Amazonian forest in eastern Brazil. A generalized linear model was used to examine the influence of five variables (manipulation type, perpendicular distance from the main trail, total basal area of trees surrounding the nest site, understorey density, and liana quantity) on nest predation rates. Model results, showed that manipulation type was the only variable that significantly affected nest predation rates. Thus, to avoid systematic biases, the influence of nest site manipulation must be taken into consideration when conducting experiments with artificial nests.

Development of a warning system for wheat blast caused by Pyricularia grisea

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) blast caused by Pyricularia grisea is a new disease in Brazil and no resistant cultivars are available. The interactions between temperature and wetness durations have been used in many early warning systems. Hence, growth chamber experiments to assess the effect of different temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35ºC) and the duration of spike-wetness (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 hours) on the intensity of blast in cultivar BR23 were carried out. Each temperature formed an experiment and the duration of wetness the treatments. The highest blast intensity was observed at 30°C and increased as the duration of the wetting period increased while the lowest occurred at 25°C and 10 hours of spike wetness. Regardless of the temperature, no symptoms occurred when the wetting period was less than 10 hours but at 25°C and a 40 h wetting period blast intensity exceeded 85%. These variations in blast intensity as a function of temperature are explained by a generalized beta model and as a function of the duration of spike wetness by the Gompertz model. Disease intensity was modeled as a function of both temperature and the durations of spike wetness and the resulting equation provided a precise description of the response of P. grisea to temperatures and the durations of spike wetness. This model was used to construct tables that can be used to predict the intensity of P. grisea wheat blast based on the temperatures and the durations of wheat spike wetness obtained in the field.

Fatigue and quality of life in breast cancer survivors: a comparative study

PURPOSE: To assess fatigue and quality of life in disease-free breast cancer survivors in relation to a sample of age-matched women with no cancer history and to explore the relationship between fatigue and quality of life.METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a sample of 202 consecutive disease-free Brazilian breast cancer survivors, all of whom had completed treatment, treated at 2 large hospitals. The patients were compared to age-matched women with no cancer history attending a primary health care center. The Piper Fatigue Scale-Revised and the World Health Organization Quality of Life Instrument (WHOQOL-BREF) were used to measure the fatigue and quality of life, respectively. Socio-demographic and clinical variables were also obtained. The χ2 test, generalized linear model, and Spearman correlation coefficient were used for statistical purposes. The adopted level of significance was 5%.RESULTS: Breast cancer survivors experienced significantly greater total and subscale fatigue scores than comparison group (all p-values<0.05). In addition, survivors reported a poorer quality of life in physical (p=0.002), psychological (p=0.03), and social relationships (p=0.03) domains than comparison group. No difference was found for the environmental domain (p=0.08) for both groups. For survivors of breast cancer and for comparison group, the total and subscale fatigue scores were related to lower quality of life (all p-values<0.01).CONCLUSION: The findings of this study highlight the importance of assessing fatigue and quality of life in breast cancer survivors.

Effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions

In order to assess the effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory morbidity, we carried out a time series study using daily levels of PM10, SO2, NO2, ozone, and CO and daily numbers of pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions at the Children's Institute of the University of São Paulo Medical School, from August 1996 to August 1997. In this period there were 43,635 hospital emergency room visits, 4534 of which were due to lower respiratory tract disease. The total number of hospital admissions was 6785, 1021 of which were due to lower respiratory tract infectious and/or obstructive diseases. The three health end-points under investigation were the daily number of emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases, hospital admissions due to pneumonia, and hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were fitted, controlling for smooth functions of time, temperature and humidity, and an indicator of weekdays. NO2 was positively associated with all outcomes. Interquartile range increases (65.04 µg/m³) in NO2 moving averages were associated with an 18.4% increase (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 12.5-24.3) in emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases (4-day moving average), a 17.6% increase (95% CI = 3.3-32.7) in hospital admissions due to pneumonia or bronchopneumonia (3-day moving average), and a 31.4% increase (95% CI = 7.2-55.7) in hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis (2-day moving average). The study showed that air pollution considerably affects children's respiratory morbidity, deserving attention from the health authorities.

Air pollution and cardiovascular hospital admissions in a medium-sized city in São Paulo State, Brazil

The objective of the present study was to estimate the contribution of environmental pollutants to hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease. A time series ecological study was conducted on subjects aged over 60 years and living in São José dos Campos, Brazil, with a population near 700,000 inhabitants. Hospital admission data of public health patients (SUS) were obtained from DATASUS for the period between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2006, according to the ICD-10 diagnoses I20 to I22 and I24. Particulate matter with less than 10 µm in aerodynamic diameter, sulfur dioxide and ozone were the pollutants examined, and the control variables were mean temperature and relative humidity. Data on pollutants were obtained from the São Paulo State Sanitary Agency. The generalized linear model Poisson regression with lags of up to 5 days was used. There were 1303 hospital admissions during the period. Exposure to particulate matter was significantly associated with hospitalization for cardiovascular disease 3 days after exposure (RR = 1.006; 95%CI = 1.000 to 1.010) and an increase of 16 µg/m³ was associated with a 10% increase in risk of hospitalization; other pollutants were not associated with hospitalization. Thus, it was possible to identify the role of exposure to particulate matter as an environmental pollutant in hospitalization for cardiovascular disease in a medium-sized city inSoutheastern Brazil.

Calculation of viscoelastic properties of edible films: application of three models

The viscoelastic properties of edible films can provide information at the structural level of the biopolymers used. The objective of this work was to test three simple models of linear viscoelastic theory (Maxwell, Generalized Maxwell with two units in parallel, and Burgers) using the results of stress relaxation tests in edible films of myofibrillar proteins of Nile Tilapia. The films were elaborated according to a casting technique and pre-conditioned at 58% relative humidity and 22ºC for 4 days. The testing sample (15mm x 118mm) was submitted to tests of stress relaxation in an equipment of physical measurements, TA.XT2i. The deformation, imposed to the sample, was 1%, guaranteeing the permanency in the domain of the linear viscoelasticity. The models were fitted to experimental data (stress x time) by nonlinear regression. The Generalized Maxwell model with two units in parallel and the Burgers model represented the relaxation curves of stress satisfactorily. The viscoelastic properties varied in a way that they were less dependent on the thickness of the films.

A comparative analysis of Cobb-Douglas model with additive and multiplicative error

This paper dis cusses the fitting of a Cobb-Doug las response curve Yi = αXβi, with additive error, Yi = αXβi + e i, instead of the usual multiplicative error Yi = αXβi (1 + e i). The estimation of the parameters A and B is discussed. An example is given with use of both types of error.

Cholestasis in a murine experimental model: lesions include hepatocyte ischemic necrosis

OBJECTIVE: To establish a murine experimental model of bile duct obstruction that would enable controlled observations of the acute and subacute phases of cholestasis. METHODOLOGY: Adult male isogenic BALB/c mice underwent a bile duct ligation (22 animals) or a sham operation (10 animals). Fifteen days after surgery, or immediately after the animal's death, macroscopic findings were noted and histological study of the liver, biliary tree, and pancreas was performed (hematoxylin-eosin and Masson trichromic staining). RESULTS: Beginning 24 hours after surgery, all animals from the bile duct ligation group presented progressive generalized malaise. All animals presented jaundice in the parietal and visceral peritoneum, turgid and enlarged liver, and accentuated dilatation of gallbladder and common bile duct. Microscopic findings included marked dilatation and proliferation of bile ducts with accentuated collagen deposits, frequent areas of ischemic necrosis, hepatic microabscesses, and purulent cholangitis. Animals from the sham operation group presented no alterations. CONCLUSION: We established a murine experimental model of induced cholestasis, which made it possible to study acute and subacute tissue lesions. Our data suggests that in cholestasis, hepatic functional ischemia plays an important role in inducing hepatic lesions, and it also suggests that the infectious process is an important factor in morbidity and mortality.