Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Modelling Amazonian forest eddy covariance data: a comparison of big leaf versus sun/shade models for the C-14 tower at Manaus I. Canopy photosynthesis

In this study, we concentrate on modelling gross primary productivity using two simple approaches to simulate canopy photosynthesis: "big leaf" and "sun/shade" models. Two approaches for calibration are used: scaling up of canopy photosynthetic parameters from the leaf to the canopy level and fitting canopy biochemistry to eddy covariance fluxes. Validation of the models is achieved by using eddy covariance data from the LBA site C14. Comparing the performance of both models we conclude that numerically (in terms of goodness of fit) and qualitatively, (in terms of residual response to different environmental variables) sun/shade does a better job. Compared to the sun/shade model, the big leaf model shows a lower goodness of fit and fails to respond to variations in the diffuse fraction, also having skewed responses to temperature and VPD. The separate treatment of sun and shade leaves in combination with the separation of the incoming light into direct beam and diffuse make sun/shade a strong modelling tool that catches more of the observed variability in canopy fluxes as measured by eddy covariance. In conclusion, the sun/shade approach is a relatively simple and effective tool for modelling photosynthetic carbon uptake that could be easily included in many terrestrial carbon models.

Impact of livestock on a mosquito community (Diptera: Culicidae) in a Brazilian tropical dry forest

AbstractINTRODUCTION: This study evaluated the effects of cattle removal on the Culicidae mosquito community structure in a tropical dry forest in Brazil.METHODS: Culicidae were collected during dry and wet seasons in cattle presence and absence between August 2008 and October 2010 and assessed using multivariate statistical models.RESULTS: Cattle removal did not significantly alter Culicidae species richness and abundance. However, alterations were noted in Culicidae community composition.CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to evaluate the impact of cattle removal on Culicidae community structure in Brazil and demonstrates the importance of assessing ecological parameters such as community species composition.

Abundance of two Dendrocincla woodcreepers (aves: Dendrocolaptidae) in relation to forest structure in Central Amazonia

Few studies have been conducted to verify how the structure of the forest affects the occurence and abundance of neotropical birds. Our research was undertaken between January 2002 and July 2004 at the Reserva Ducke, near Manaus (02º55',03º01'S; 59º53',59º59'W) in central Amazonia, to verify how the forest structure affects the occurrence and abundance of two bird species: the Plain-brown Woodcreeper Dendrocincla fuliginosa and the White-chinned Woodcreeper Dendrocincla merula. Bird species occurrence was recorded using lines of 20 mist-nets (one sample unit), along 51 1-km transects distributed along 9 pararel 8 km trails covering an area of 6400 ha. Along these transects, we placed 50 x 50m plots where we recorded forest structure components (tree abundance, canopy openness, leaf litter, standing dead trees, logs, proximity to streams, and altitude). We then related these variables to bird occurence and abundance using multiple logistic and multiple linear regression models, respectively. We found that D. fuliginosa frequently used plateau areas; being more abundant in areas with more trees. On the other hand, D. merula occurred more frequently and was more abundant in areas with low tree abundance. Our results suggest that although both species overlap in the reserve (both were recorded in at least 68% of the sampled sites), they differ in the way they use the forest microhabitats. Therefore, local variation in the forest structure may contribute to the coexistence of congeneric species and may help to maintain local alpha diversity.

The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity.

Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

The evolution of universities' relations with the business sector in Brazil: What national publications between 1980 and 2012 reveal

ABSTRACT This paper addresses the changes in university-industry relations in Brazil regarding innovation activities. It is based on a survey of articles published in major national journals or presented at the most relevant Brazilian and regional conferences, between 1980 and 2012. The year 1980 was chosen due to the creation of the Technological Innovation Offices (NITs), which was the first government initiative to encourage knowledge transfer from universities to companies; the second was the Innovation Act of 2004. Our assumption was that after the Act the number of academic papers on this subject would increase, bringing new ideas and propositions of models to enhance this relationship. The methodology employed a qualitative, exploratory approach, using bibliographical research and a bibliometric analysis of 247 papers. Literature review of international studies shows the discussion of problems and suggestions for improvements, while in Brazil there is still a debate on whether this collaboration should occur, and if this is a legitimate role for the university. Despite the numerical growth, the content analysis showed few papers on new configurations and procedures for partnership management. We conclude that university-industry relations are not a regular and totally accepted process in Brazilian public universities, which reflect an ideological bias against cooperation with firms.

Ecological niche models and patterns of richness and endemism of the southern Andean genus Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae)

Eurymetopum is an Andean clerid genus with 22 species. We modeled the ecological niches of 19 species with Maxent and used them as potential distributional maps to identify patterns of richness and endemicity. All modeled species maps were overlapped in a single map in order to determine richness. We performed an optimality analysis with NDM/VNDM in a grid of 1º latitude-longitude in order to identify endemism. We found a highly rich area, located between 32º and 41º south latitude, where the richest pixels have 16 species. One area of endemism was identified, located in the Maule and Valdivian Forest biogeographic provinces, which extends also to the Santiago province of the Central Chilean subregion, and contains four endemic species (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus, and E. viride), as well as 16 non-endemic species. The sympatry of these phylogenetically unrelated species might indicate ancient vicariance processes, followed by episodes of dispersal. Based on our results, we suggest a close relationship between these provinces, with the Maule representing a complex area.

Dung beetle (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) assemblage of a highly fragmented landscape of Atlantic forest: from small to the largest fragments of northeastern Brazilian region

Human activities in tropical forests are the main causes of forest fragmentation. According to historical factor in deforestation processes, forest remnants exhibit different sizes and shapes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the dung beetle assemblage on fragments of different degree of sizes. Sampling was performed during rainy and dry season of 2010 in six fragments of Atlantic forest, using pitfall traps baited with excrement and carrion. Also, we used two larger fragments as control. We used General Linear Models to determine whether the fragments presented distinguished dung beetle abundance and richness. Analysis of Similarities and Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling were used to determine whether the dung beetle assemblage was grouped according to species composition. A total of 3352 individuals were collected and 19 species were identified in the six fragments sampled. Dung beetle abundance exhibited a shift according to fragment size; however, richness did not change among fragments evaluated. Also, fragments sampled and the two controls exhibited distinct species composition. The distinction on abundance of dung beetles among fragments may be related to different amount of resource available in each one. It is likely that the dung beetle richness did not distinguish among the different fragments due to the even distribution of the mammal communities in these patches, and consequent equal dung diversity. We conclude that larger fragments encompass higher abundance of dung beetle and distinct species. However, for a clearer understanding of effects of fragmentation on dung beetles in Atlantic forest, studies evaluating narrower variations of larger fragments should be conducted.

Mating system parameters in a high density population of andirobas in the Amazon forest

The objective of this work was to estimate the mating system parameters of a andiroba (Carapa guianensis) population using microsatellite markers and the mixed and correlated mating models. Twelve open‑pollinated progeny arrays of 15 individuals were sampled in an area with C. guianensis estimated density of 25.7 trees per hectare. Overall, the species has a mixed reproductive system, with a predominance of outcrossing. The multilocus outcrossing rate (t m = 0.862) was significantly lower than the unity, indicating that self‑pollination occurred. The rate of biparental inbreeding was substantial (t m ‑ t s = 0.134) and significantly different from zero. The correlation of selfing within progenies was high (r s = 0.635), indicating variation in the individual outcrossing rate. Consistent with this result, the estimate of the individual outcrossing rate ranged from 0.598 to 0.978. The multilocus correlation of paternity was low (r p(m) = 0.081), but significantly different from zero, suggesting that the progenies contain full‑sibs. The coancestry within progenies (Θ = 0.185) was higher and the variance effective size (Ne(v) = 2.7) was lower than expected for true half‑sib progenies (Θ = 0.125; Ne(v) = 4). These results suggest that, in order to maintain a minimum effective size of 150 individuals for breeding, genetic conservation, and environmental reforestation programs, seeds from at least 56 trees must be collected.

Brazilian external sector so far in the 21st century

Although Brazil has traditionally been characterized by a culture of inward-looking policy making, the presence of foreign firms in the Brazilian productive sector has always been significant. The share of foreign-owned firms is one of the highest that can be found among developing countries. This article discusses the main features of the external sector of the Brazilian economy, regarding trade flows, foreign investment, the internationalization of Brazilian entrepreneurial groups and the short-term financial requirements in foreign currencies

Species richness of anthophilous butterflies of an Atlantic Forest fragment in Southeastern Brazil

The objectives of this study were to identify anthophilous butterflies on psychophilous flowers of four Asteraceae species in an Atlantic Forest fragment in Viçosa, Minas Gerais State, Southeastern Brazil, and to determine whether there are species in common with other lepidopteran inventories of the Southeastern and Midwestern regions of Brazil. It is the first inventory of anthophilous butterflies of a semideciduous forest fragment in Zona da Mata, State of Minas Gerais. A total of 108 species were recorded, representing the fourth largest lepidopteran survey in this State. The results demonstrated that Asteraceae species may be important tools for monitoring anthophilous butterflies. The similarity with other inventories ranged from 1 to 92.55%. Fifteen species were reported for the first time in the State of Minas Gerais, and among them, Melanis alena and Thisbe irenea were observed in this study only.

Decomposition of ground biomass of secondary forest and yield of annual crops in no tillage

ABSTRACT The objective of this work was to evaluate the dynamics of decomposition process of chopped secondary forest system, previously enriched with legumes Inga velutina Willd. and Stryphnodendron pulcherrimum (Willd.) Hochr. and the contribution of this process to the nutrient input to the cultivation of corn and bean under no-tillage. The experimental design was a randomized block, split plot with four replications. The plots were two species (I. velutina and S. pulcherrimum) and the subplots were seven times of evaluation (0, 7, 28, 63, 189, 252, 294 days after experiment installation). There was no difference (p ≥ 0.05) between the secondary forest systems enriched and no interaction with times for biomass waste, decomposition constant and half-life time. The waste of S. pulcherrimum trees had higher (p < 0.05) C/N ratio than that I. velutina. However, this one was higher (p < 0.05) in lignin content. Nevertheless, the dynamics of residue decomposition was similar. The corn yield was higher (p < 0.05) in cultivation under I.velutina waste. Meanwhile, the beans planted after corn, shows similar (p > 0.05) yield in both areas, regardless of the waste origin.