Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

Weather requirements and rain forecast to time fungicide application for Fusarium head blight control in wheat

The aim of this study was to determine the minimum conditions of wetness duration and mean temperature required for Fusarium head blight infection in wheat. The weather model developed by Zoldan (2008) was tested in field experiments for two wheat cultivars grown in 2005 (five sowing dates) and 2006 (six sowing dates) in 10 m² plots with three replicates. The disease was assessed according to head incidence (HI), spikelet incidence (SI), and the interaction between these two methods was called head blight severity (HBS). Starting at the beginning of anthesis, air temperature and head wetness duration were daily recorded with an automatic weather station. With the combination of these two factors, a weather favorability table was built for the disease occurrence. Starting on the day of flowering beginning (1 - 5% fully exserted anthers), the sum of daily values for infection favorability (SDVIF) was calculated by means of a computer program, according to Zoldan (2008) table. The initial symptoms of the disease were observed at 3.7% spikelet incidence, corresponding to 2.6 SVDFI. The infection occurs in wheat due to rainfall which results in spike wetting of > 61.4 h duration. Rainfall events forecast can help time fungicide application to control FHB. The name of this alert system is proposed as UPF-scab alert.

Analysis and forecast of the storage needs of soybeans in Brazil

The existence of a minimum storage capacity of grains as a condition for the maintenance of regulator physical stocks has been used as a strategic factor in the agribusiness expansion. However, in Brazil the storage infrastructure has not followed the growth of the agricultural sector. This fact is evident in the case of soybeans that currently represent 49% of grain production in the country, whose volume production has been increasing significantly over the years. This study aimed to predict the futureneeds of static storage capacity of soybeans from historical data to estimate the investment needed to install storage units in Brazil for the next five years. A statistic analysis of collected data allowed a forecast and identification of the number of storage units that should be installed to meet the storage needs of soybeans in the next five years. It was concluded that by 2015 the soybean storage capacity should be 87 million tons, and to store 49% of soybeans produced, 1,104 storage units should be installed at a cost of R$ 442 million.

Serum dosage of CPK-MB in dogs with ST deviation by chemiluminescence

Abstract: Although frequently in humans, hypoxic and ischemic heart diseases are poorly documented in dogs, with only few reports of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in this species. Some electrocardiographic findings might suggest myocardium hypoxia/ischemia, like ST segment elevation or depression, but there are no studies showing whether deviations in ST segment are associated to myocardial injury and serum increase of creatine phosphokinase (CPK-MB). In order to investigate possible myocardial cells injury in poor perfusion conditions, 38 dogs were studied, 20 with normal electrocardiogram and 18 with ST segment elevation or depression, recorded in lead II, at a paper speed of 50 mm/sec and N sensibility (1mV=1cm). Serum measurement of creatine phosphokinase isoenzyme MB (CPK-MB) in normal dogs (group 1) determined control values (in ng/mL), which were compared to those obtained from dogs with deviation (group 2), which allowed confirmation or not of myocardial injury. CPK-MB mean values obtained from dogs in groups 1 and 2 were 0.540ng/ml (SD±0.890)ng/mL and 0.440ng/mL (SD±1.106), respectively. At a significance level of 5%, the relation of CPK-MB with age, mass and total creatine phosphokinase (CPK-T) was not significant in groups 1 and 2. CPK-MB showed no difference, at 5% level, between groups 1 and 2. In conclusion, it is possible to use the human chemiluminescent immunometric assay kit in canine species and that hypoxia/ischemia revealed by ST segment deviation does not mean significant myocardium injury.

A Design Methodology for the Compensation of Positioning Deviation in Gantry Manipulators

This work presents recent results concerning a design methodology used to estimate the positioning deviation for a gantry (Cartesian) manipulator, related mainly to structural elastic deformation of components during operational conditions. The case-study manipulator is classified as gantry type and its basic dimensions are 1,53m x 0,97m x 1,38m. The dimensions used for the calculation of effective workspace due to end-effector path displacement are: 1m x 0,5m x 0,5m. The manipulator is composed by four basic modules defined as module X, module Y, module Z and terminal arm, where is connected the end-effector. Each module controlled axis performs a linear-parabolic positioning movement. The planning path algorithm has the maximum velocity and the total distance as input parameters for a given task. The acceleration and deceleration times are the same. Denavit-Hartemberg parameterization method is used in the manipulator kinematics model. The gantry manipulator can be modeled as four rigid bodies with three degrees-of-freedom in translational movements, connected as an open kinematics chain. Dynamic analysis were performed considering inertial parameters specification such as component mass, inertia and center of gravity position of each module. These parameters are essential for a correct manipulator dynamic modelling, due to multiple possibilities of motion and manipulation of objects with different masses. The dynamic analysis consists of a mathematical modelling of the static and dynamic interactions among the modules. The computation of the structural deformations uses the finite element method (FEM).

Validity of self-reported weight: a study of urban brazilian adults

In order to evaluate the validity of self-reported weight for use in obesity prevalence surveys, self-reported weight was compared to measured weight for 659 adults living in the Porto Alegre county, RS Brazil in 1986-87, both weights being obtained by a technician in the individual's home on the same visit. The mean difference between self-reported and measured weight was small (-0.06 +/- 3.16 kg; mean +/- standard deviation), and the correlation between reported and measured weight was high (r=0.97). Sixty-two percent of participants reported their weight with an error of < 2 kg, 87% with an error of < 4 kg, and 95% with an error of < 6 kg. Underweight individuals overestimated their weight, while obese individuals underestimated theirs (p<0.05). Men tended to overestimate their weight and women underestimate theirs, this difference between sexes being statistically significant (p=0.04). The overall prevalence of underweight (body mass index < 20) by reported weight was 11%, by measured weight 13%; the overall prevalence of obesity (body mass index > 30) by reported weight was 10%, by measured weight 11%. Thus, the validity of reported weight is acceptable for surveys of the prevalence of ponderosity in similar settings.

Hippuric acid in urine: reference values

OBJECTIVE: To establish reference values for hippuric acid (HA) excreted in the urine, and to evaluate the impact of age, gender, alcohol, and tobacco, on these levels in a population nonexposed to toluene. METHODS: Reference values for hippuric acid in urine were determined in 115 toluene nonexposed healthy volunteers, from Alfenas city, Southeastern Brazil. A questionnaire was applied to each volunteer and data on occupational and personal habits were collected. Biochemical and hematological analyses were used to confirm the volunteers' good health condition. Reference values were expressed in g HA/g urine creatinine, as mean ± standard deviation (x ± SD), median, 95% confidence interval (95%CI), 95th percentile, and upper reference value (URV, mean +2 SD). RESULTS: Reference values of hippuric acid in urine were: mean ± standard deviation =0.18±0.10; median =0.15; 95% confidence interval =0.16±0.20; 95th percentile = 0.36 and upper reference value (URV, mean +2 SD) =0.38. Statistically significant differences in urinary HA (Wilcoxon - Mann/Whitney, p<0.05) were observed for different genders and age groups. Alcohol ingestion and smoking habit did not significantly affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: The reference values of hippuric acid in urine can be used in biomonitoring programs of workers occupationally exposed to toluene, especially in the southern region of the state of Minas Gerais. Age and gender may affect the HA reference values.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Assessing usual dietary intake in complex sample design surveys: the National Dietary Survey

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) method allows the distributions of usual intake of nutrients and foods to be estimated. This method can be used in complex surveys. However, the user must perform additional calculations, such as balanced repeated replication (BRR), in order to obtain standard errors and confidence intervals for the percentiles and mean from the distribution of usual intake. The objective is to highlight adaptations of the NCI method using data from the National Dietary Survey. The application of the NCI method was exemplified analyzing the total energy (kcal) and fruit (g) intake, comparing estimations of mean and standard deviation that were based on the complex design of the Brazilian survey with those assuming simple random sample. Although means point estimates were similar, estimates of standard error using the complex design increased by up to 60% compared to simple random sample. Thus, for valid estimates of food and energy intake for the population, all of the sampling characteristics of the surveys should be taken into account because when these characteristics are neglected, statistical analysis may produce underestimated standard errors that would compromise the results and the conclusions of the survey.

Prevalence and determinants of child undernutrition and stunting in semiarid region of Brazil

OBJECTIVE : To analyze the evolution in the prevalence and determinants of malnutrition in children in the semiarid region of Brazil. METHODS : Data were collected from two cross-sectional population-based household surveys that used the same methodology. Clustering sampling was used to collect data from 8,000 families in Ceará, Northeastern Brazil, for the years 1987 and 2007. Acute undernutrition was calculated as weight/age < -2 standard deviation (SD); stunting as height/age < -2 SD; wasting as weight/height < -2 SD. Data on biological and sociodemographic determinants were analyzed using hierarchical multivariate analyses based on a theoretical model. RESULTS : A sample of 4,513 and 1,533 children under three years of age, in 1987 and 2007, respectively, were included in the analyses. The prevalence of acute malnutrition was reduced by 60.0%, from 12.6% in 1987 to 4.7% in 2007, while prevalence of stunting was reduced by 50.0%, from 27.0% in 1987 to 13.0% in 2007. Prevalence of wasting changed little in the period. In 1987, socioeconomic and biological characteristics (family income, mother’s education, toilet and tap water availability, children’s medical consultation and hospitalization, age, sex and birth weight) were significantly associated with undernutrition, stunting and wasting. In 2007, the determinants of malnutrition were restricted to biological characteristics (age, sex and birth weight). Only one socioeconomic characteristic, toilet availability, remained associated with stunting. CONCLUSIONS : Socioeconomic development, along with health interventions, may have contributed to improvements in children’s nutritional status. Birth weight, especially extremely low weight (< 1,500 g), appears as the most important risk factor for early childhood malnutrition.

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions, Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil, 2000 and 2010

OBJECTIVE To analyze hospitalization rates and the proportion of deaths due to ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations and to characterize them according to coverage by the Family Health Strategy, a primary health care guidance program. METHODS An ecological study comprising 853 municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais, under the purview of 28 regional health care units, was conducted. We used data from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified Health System. Ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations in 2000 and 2010 were compared. Population data were obtained from the demographic censuses. RESULTS The number of ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations declined from 20.75/1,000 inhabitants [standard deviation (SD) = 10.42) in 2000 to 14.92/thousand inhabitants (SD = 10.04) in 2010 Heart failure was the most frequent cause in both years. Hospitalizations rates for hypertension, asthma, and diabetes mellitus, decreased, whereas those for angina pectoris, prenatal and birth disorders, kidney and urinary tract infections, and other acute infections increased. Hospitalization durations and the proportion of deaths due to ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations increased significantly. CONCLUSIONS Mean hospitalization rates for sensitive conditions were significantly lower in 2010 than in 2000, but no correlation was found with regard to the expansion of the population coverage of the Family Health Strategy. Hospitalization rates and proportion of deaths were different between the various health care regions in the years evaluated, indicating a need to prioritize the primary health care with high efficiency and quality.

Performance evaluation of hospitals that provide care in the public health system, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze if size, administrative level, legal status, type of unit and educational activity influence the hospital network performance in providing services to the Brazilian Unified Health System.METHODS This cross-sectional study evaluated data from the Hospital Information System and the Cadastro Nacional de Estabelecimentos de Saúde (National Registry of Health Facilities), 2012, in Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. We calculated performance indicators, such as: the ratio of hospital employees per bed; mean amount paid for admission; bed occupancy rate; average length of stay; bed turnover index and hospital mortality rate. Data were expressed as mean and standard deviation. The groups were compared using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Bonferroni correction.RESULTS The hospital occupancy rate in small hospitals was lower than in medium, big and special-sized hospitals. Higher hospital occupancy rate and bed turnover index were observed in hospitals that include education in their activities. The hospital mortality rate was lower in specialized hospitals compared to general ones, despite their higher proportion of highly complex admissions. We found no differences between hospitals in the direct and indirect administration for most of the indicators analyzed.CONCLUSIONS The study indicated the importance of the scale effect on efficiency, and larger hospitals had a higher performance. Hospitals that include education in their activities had a higher operating performance, albeit with associated importance of using human resources and highly complex structures. Specialized hospitals had a significantly lower rate of mortality than general hospitals, indicating the positive effect of the volume of procedures and technology used on clinical outcomes. The analysis related to the administrative level and legal status did not show any significant performance differences between the categories of public hospitals.

The resting electrocardiogram of t. cruzi-infected rats

A total of 125 rats were infected with the Colômbia strain of T. cruzi (2000 parasites/g) shortly after weaning. Of these, 58 survived the acute phase and were used in the present experiment. Twenty eight similar but not infected rats served as controls. All rats were submitted to the resting ECG When they were 6 months old. Classic and 3 precordial leads were employed in order to record the ECG as completely as possible. Electrocardiographic changes similar to those found in human chronic Chagas' heart disease and not previously described in this model were found in 44% of the T. cruzi-infected rats: left axis deviation (22%), right axis deviation (7%), lengthened and bizarre QRS complex (14%) and abnormal J point elevation (3%). On the basis of these results, we believe that the resting ECG constitutes a valuable tool for studying experimental chronic Chagas' heart disease in rats.

HEART ANEURYSM IN CHAGAS' DISEASE

This prospective study on 41 autopsy collected human hearts concerns the "apical" lesion in Chagas' disease. Previous report did not show a correlation between lesion frequency and heart weight then discarding a vascular factor in its pathogenesis. The present paper involves other variables besides the heart weight to evaluate the relative coronary insufficiency. Distinct colored gel (green and red) injected through the capillary beds of both coronary arteries defined the extent of both vessels before separating the atria and removing the sub-epicardium fat. The Right Ventricle (RV) and Left Ventricle (LV) free walls furnished the RV/LV mass ratio. The myocardium mass colored green (right coronary artery - RC) and the whole Ventricular Weight (VW) determined the RC/VW mass ratio. The heart weight plus these mass ratios, graded and added, composed a score inversely proportional to the myocardium irrigation condition. It intended to be a more sensitive morphologic evaluation of the relative ischaemia to correlate to the apical lesion. This study showed a right deviation for the relative accumulated frequency of lesions plotted as a score function and a significant difference for higher scores in hearts with aneurysm. It suggests a ischaemic factor intervening in the apical lesion pathogenesis in Chagas' cardiopathy.

AN ELISA SUITABLE FOR THE DETECTION OF RABIES VIRUS ANTIBODIES IN SERUM SAMPLES FROM HUMAN VACCINATED WITH EITHER CELL-CULTURE VACCINE OR SUCKLING-MOUSE-BRAIN VACCINE

An indirect ELISA for determination of post-vaccination rabies antibody was applied. Purified rabies virus was used as antigen to coat plates, and staphylococcal protein A linked with horseradish peroxidase was used for detecting IgG antibody in human sera. Sera from humans, vaccinated with cell-culture vaccine or suckling-mouse-brain vaccine, were examined. ELISA results were compared to those obtained from the virus neutralization test. The mean and standard deviation of OD were determined for 126 negative sera (pre-vaccination) and for 73 sera from vaccinated persons showing antibody titers lower than 0.5 IU/ml. Results were defined as ELISA -positive, -negative or -doubtful. Establishment of a doubtful region reduced the number of sera otherwise classified as positive (false-positive sera). In this way, the sensitivity, specificity and agreement values were respectively 87.5%, 92.4% and 88.5%. No significant differences were observed in these values when the group vaccinated with cell-culture vaccine and the group vaccinated with suckling-mouse-brain vaccine were compared. It was shown that much of the disagreement between the values obtained by neutralization test and ELISA occurred in sera obtained at the beginning of the immunization process, and was probably due to the presence of IgM in the serum samples, detected only by the former test. This ELISA method can be used as a screening test in rabies laboratories regardless of the kind of vaccine used for immunization.