25 resultados para estimating conditional probabilities

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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OBJECTIVE To investigate differences in HIV infection- related risk practices by Female Sex Workers according to workplace and the effects of homophily on estimating HIV prevalence. METHODS Data from 2,523 women, recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling, were used for the study carried out in 10 Brazilian cities in 2008-2009. The study included female sex workers aged 18 and over. The questionnaire was completed by the subjects and included questions on characteristics of professional activity, sexual practices, use of drugs, HIV testing, and access to health services. HIV quick tests were conducted. The participants were classified in two groups according to place of work: on the street or indoor venues, like nightclubs and saunas. To compare variable distributions by place of work, we used Chi-square homogeneity tests, taking into consideration unequal selection probabilities as well as the structure of dependence between observations. We tested the effect of homophily by workplace on estimated HIV prevalence. RESULTS The highest HIV risk practices were associated with: working on the streets, lower socioeconomic status, low regular smear test coverage, higher levels of crack use and higher levels of syphilis serological scars as well as higher prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of homophily was higher among sex workers in indoor venues. However, it did not affect the estimated prevalence of HIV, even after using a post-stratification by workplace procedure. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that strategies should focus on extending access to, and utilization of, health services. Prevention policies should be specifically aimed at street workers. Regarding the application of Respondent-Driven Sampling, the sample should be sufficient to estimate transition probabilities, as the network develops more quickly among sex workers in indoor venues.

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Introduction Here, we evaluated sweeping methods used to estimate the number of immature Aedes aegypti in large containers. Methods III/IV instars and pupae at a 9:1 ratio were placed in three types of containers with, each one with three different water levels. Two sweeping methods were tested: water-surface sweeping and five-sweep netting. The data were analyzed using linear regression. Results The five-sweep netting technique was more suitable for drums and water-tanks, while the water-surface sweeping method provided the best results for swimming pools. Conclusions Both sweeping methods are useful tools in epidemiological surveillance programs for the control of Aedes aegypti.

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Utilizando-se dados do sensor aerotransportado SAR R99, adquiridos na banda L (1,28 GHz) em amplitude e com quatro polarizações (HH, VV, HV e VH), avaliou-se a distinção de fitofisionomias de floresta de várzea existentes nas Reservas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Amanã e Mamirauá e áreas adjacentes, com a aplicação do algoritmo Iterated Conditional Modes (ICM) de classificação polarimétrica pontual/contextual. Os resultados mostraram que o uso das distribuições multivariadas em amplitude, conjuntamente com uma banda de textura, produziu classificações de qualidade superior àquelas obtidas com dados polarimétricos uni/bivariados. Esta abordagem permitiu a obtenção de um índice Kappa de 0,8963, discriminando as três classes vegetacionais de interesse, comprovando assim o potencial dos dados do SAR R99 e do algoritmo ICM no mapeamento de florestas de várzea da Amazônia.

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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the survival rate in a cohort of Parkinson's disease patients with and without depression. METHODS: A total of 53 Parkinson's disease subjects were followed up from 2003-2008 and 21 were diagnosed as depressed. Mean time of follow up was 3.8 (SD 95% = 1.5) years for all the sample and there was no significant difference in mean time of follow up between depressed and nondepressed Parkinson's disease patients. Survival curves rates were fitted using the Kaplan-Meier method. In order to compare survival probabilities according to the selected covariables the Log-Rank test was used. Multivariate analysis with Cox regression was performed aiming at estimating the effect of predictive covariables on the survival. RESULTS: The cumulative global survival of this sample was 83% with nine deaths at the end of the study - five in the depressed and four in the nondepressed group, and 55.6% died in the first year of observation, and none died at the fourth and fifth year of follow up. CONCLUSION: Our finding point toward incremental death risk in depressed Parkinson's disease patients.

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Studies have shown that both carbon dioxide (CO2) and octenol (1-octen-3-ol) are effective attractants for mosquitoes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the attractiveness of 1-octen-3-ol and CO2 for diurnal mosquitoes in the southeastern Atlantic forest. A Latin square experimental design was employed with four treatments: CDC-light trap (CDC-LT), CDC-LT and 1-octen-3-ol, CDC-LT and CO2 and CDC-LT with 1-octen-3-ol and CO2. Results demonstrated that both CDC-CO2 and CDC-CO2-1-octen-3-ol captured a greater number of mosquito species and specimens compared to CDC-1-octen-3-ol; CDC-LT was used as the control. Interestingly, Anopheles (Kerteszia) sp. was generally attracted to 1-octen-3-ol, whereas Aedes serratus was the most abundant species in all Latin square collections. This species was recently shown to be competent to transmit the yellow fever virus and may therefore play a role as a disease vector in rural areas of Brazil.

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Leaching of nitrate (NO3-) can increase the groundwater concentration of this anion and reduce the agronomical effectiveness of nitrogen fertilizers. The main soil property inversely related to NO3- leaching is the anion exchange capacity (AEC), whose determination is however too time-consuming for being carried out in soil testing laboratories. For this reason, this study evaluated if more easily measurable soil properties could be used to estimate the resistance of subsoils to NO3- leaching. Samples from the subsurface layer (20-40 cm) of 24 representative soils of São Paulo State were characterized for particle-size distribution and for chemical and electrochemical properties. The subsoil content of adsorbed NO3- was calculated from the difference between the NO3- contents extracted with 1 mol L-1 KCl and with water; furthermore, NO3- leaching was studied in miscible displacement experiments. The results of both adsorption and leaching experiments were consistent with the well-known role exerted by AEC on the nitrate behavior in weathered soils. Multiple regression analysis indicated that in subsoils with (i) low values of remaining phosphorus (Prem), (ii) low soil pH values measured in water (pH H2O), and (iii) high pH values measured in 1 moL L-1 KCl (pH KCl), the amounts of surface positive charges tend to be greater. For this reason, NO3- leaching tends to be slower in these subsoils, even under saturated flow condition.

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Knowledge of the soil water retention curve (SWRC) is essential for understanding and modeling hydraulic processes in the soil. However, direct determination of the SWRC is time consuming and costly. In addition, it requires a large number of samples, due to the high spatial and temporal variability of soil hydraulic properties. An alternative is the use of models, called pedotransfer functions (PTFs), which estimate the SWRC from easy-to-measure properties. The aim of this paper was to test the accuracy of 16 point or parametric PTFs reported in the literature on different soils from the south and southeast of the State of Pará, Brazil. The PTFs tested were proposed by Pidgeon (1972), Lal (1979), Aina & Periaswamy (1985), Arruda et al. (1987), Dijkerman (1988), Vereecken et al. (1989), Batjes (1996), van den Berg et al. (1997), Tomasella et al. (2000), Hodnett & Tomasella (2002), Oliveira et al. (2002), and Barros (2010). We used a database that includes soil texture (sand, silt, and clay), bulk density, soil organic carbon, soil pH, cation exchange capacity, and the SWRC. Most of the PTFs tested did not show good performance in estimating the SWRC. The parametric PTFs, however, performed better than the point PTFs in assessing the SWRC in the tested region. Among the parametric PTFs, those proposed by Tomasella et al. (2000) achieved the best accuracy in estimating the empirical parameters of the van Genuchten (1980) model, especially when tested in the top soil layer.

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Under field conditions in the Amazon forest, soil bulk density is difficult to measure. Rigorous methodological criteria must be applied to obtain reliable inventories of C stocks and soil nutrients, making this process expensive and sometimes unfeasible. This study aimed to generate models to estimate soil bulk density based on parameters that can be easily and reliably measured in the field and that are available in many soil-related inventories. Stepwise regression models to predict bulk density were developed using data on soil C content, clay content and pH in water from 140 permanent plots in terra firme (upland) forests near Manaus, Amazonas State, Brazil. The model results were interpreted according to the coefficient of determination (R2) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) and were validated with a dataset consisting of 125 plots different from those used to generate the models. The model with best performance in estimating soil bulk density under the conditions of this study included clay content and pH in water as independent variables and had R2 = 0.73 and AIC = -250.29. The performance of this model for predicting soil density was compared with that of models from the literature. The results showed that the locally calibrated equation was the most accurate for estimating soil bulk density for upland forests in the Manaus region.

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The objective of this work was to develop a simplified numerical procedure for the estimation of accumulated monthly hours of solarized soil temperatures. The proposed model requires monthly means of daily solar radiation and maximum air temperature as input data, and a daily pattern of temperature variation assumed to be sine-shaped. The procedure was verified using observations made during the years 1992 and 1993 in Jaguariúna, SP. The proposed procedure can predict monthly temperature hours at 10 cm depth in the solarized soil, with acceptable accuracy, in the region for which it was developed.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate root and water distribution in irrigated banana (Musa sp.), in order to determine the water application efficiency for different drip irrigation emitter patterns. Three drip emitter patterns were studied: two 4-L h-1 emitters per plant (T1), four 4-L h-1 emitters per plant (T2), and five 4-L h-1 emitters per plant (T3). The emitters were placed in a lateral line. In the treatment T3, the emitters formed a continuous strip. The cultivated area used was planted with banana cultivar BRS Tropical, with a 3-m spacing between rows and a 2.5-m spacing between plants. Soil moisture and root length data were collected during the first production cycle at five radial distances and depths, in a 0.20x0.20 m vertical grid. The experiment was carried out in a sandy clay loam Xanthic Hapludox. Soil moisture data were collected every 10 min for a period of five days using TDR probes. Water application efficiency was of 83, 88 and 92% for the systems with two, four and five emitters per plant, respectively. It was verified that an increase in the number of emitters in the lateral line promoted better root distribution, higher water extraction, and less deep percolation losses.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the application of the spectral-temporal response surface (STRS) classification method on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 250 m) sensor images in order to estimate soybean areas in Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The classification was carried out using the maximum likelihood algorithm (MLA) adapted to the STRS method. Thirty segments of 30x30 km were chosen along the main agricultural regions of Mato Grosso state, using data from the summer season of 2005/2006 (from October to March), and were mapped based on fieldwork data, TM/Landsat-5 and CCD/CBERS-2 images. Five thematic classes were considered: Soybean, Forest, Cerrado, Pasture and Bare Soil. The classification by the STRS method was done over an area intersected with a subset of 30x30-km segments. In regions with soybean predominance, STRS classification overestimated in 21.31% of the reference values. In regions where soybean fields were less prevalent, the classifier overestimated 132.37% in the acreage of the reference. The overall classification accuracy was 80%. MODIS sensor images and the STRS algorithm showed to be promising for the classification of soybean areas in regions with the predominance of large farms. However, the results for fragmented areas and smaller farms were less efficient, overestimating soybean areas.

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The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae) throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months) has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

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In this work is presented and tested (for 106 adducts, mainly of the zinc group halides) two empirical equations supported in TG data to estimate the value of the metal-ligand bond dissociation enthalpy for adducts: <D> (M-O) = t i / g if t i < 420 K and <D> (M-O) = (t i / g ) - 7,75 . 10-2 . t i if t i > 420 K. In this empirical equations, t i is the thermodynamic temperature of the beginning of the thermal decomposition of the adduct, as determined by thermogravimetry, andg is a constant factor that is function of the metal halide considered and of the number of ligands, but is not dependant of the ligand itself. To half of the tested adducts the difference between experimental and calculated values was less than 5%. To about 80% of the tested adducts, the difference between the experimental (calorimetric) and the calculated (using the proposed equations) values are less than 15%.

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ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to select allometric models to estimate total and pooled aboveground biomass of 4.5-year-old capixingui trees established in an agrisilvicultural system. Aboveground biomass distribution of capixingui was also evaluated. Single- (diameter at breast height [DBH] or crown diameter or stem diameter as the independent variable) and double-entry (DBH or crown diameter or stem diameter and total height as independent variables) models were studied. The estimated total biomass was 17.3 t.ha-1, corresponding to 86.6 kg per tree. All models showed a good fit to the data (R2ad > 0.85) for bole, branches, and total biomass. DBH-based models presented the best residual distribution. Model lnW = b0 + b1* lnDBH can be recommended for aboveground biomass estimation. Lower coefficients were obtained for leaves (R2ad > 82%). Biomass distribution followed the order: bole>branches>leaves. Bole biomass percentage decreased with increasing DBH of the trees, whereas branch biomass increased.

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This research aimed to compare two female broiler breeder ages during the incubation period regarding management using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP). This method is characterized by the possibility of analyzing a multicriteria problem and assists a decision making. This study was carried out on a commercial hatchery located in São Paulo, Brazil. Two ages of broiler breeder (42 and 56 weeks) were compared relative to production rate. Production index data were the same in both ages and were submitted to multicriteria decision analysis using the AHP method. The results indicate that broiler breeders of 42 weeks presented better performance than those of 56 week-old. The setter phase (incubation) is more critical than the hatcher. The AHP method was efficient for this analysis and can serve as a methodological basis for future studies to improve the hatchability of broilers eggs.