HAND-FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STATUS AND RELATIONSHIP WITH METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES IN GUANGZHOU, SOUTHERN CHINA, 2008-2012

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.

Association of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) population density with climate variables in Montes Claros, an area of American visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

In the present paper, we evaluate the relationship between climate variables and population density of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Montes Claros, an area of active transmission of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Brazil. Entomological captures were performed in 10 selected districts of the city, between September 2002-August 2003. A total of 773 specimens of L. longipalpiswere captured in the period and the population density could be associated with local climate variables (cumulative rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity) through a mathematical linear model with a determination coefficient (Rsqr) of 0.752. Although based on an oversimplified statistical analysis, as far as the vector is concerned, this approach showed to be potentially useful as a starting point to guide control measures for AVL in Montes Claros.

Liming in Agricultural Production Models with and Without the Adoption of Crop-Livestock Integration

ABSTRACT Perennial forage crops used in crop-livestock integration (CLI) are able to accumulate large amounts of straw on the soil surface in no-tillage system (NTS). In addition, they can potentially produce large amounts of soluble organic compounds that help improving the efficiency of liming in the subsurface, which favors root growth, thus reducing the risks of loss in yield during dry spells and the harmful effects of “overliming”. The aim of this study was to test the effects of liming on two models of agricultural production, with and without crop-livestock integration, for 2 years. Thus, an experiment was conducted in a Latossolo Vermelho (Oxisol) with a very clayey texture located in an agricultural area under the NTS in Bandeirantes, PR, Brazil. Liming was performed to increase base saturation (V) to 65, 75, and 90 % while one plot per block was maintained without the application of lime (control). A randomized block experimental design was adopted arranged in split-plots and four plots/block, with four replications. The soil properties evaluated were: pH in CaCl2, soil organic matter (SOM), Ca, Mg, K, Al, and P. The effects of liming were observed to a greater depth and for a long period through mobilization of ions in the soil, leading to a reduction in SOM and Al concentration and an increase in pH and the levels of Ca and Mg. In the first crop year, adoption of CLI led to an increase in the levels of K and Mg and a reduction in the levels of SOM; however, in the second crop year, the rate of decline of SOM decreased compared to the decline observed in the first crop year, and the level of K increased, whereas that of P decreased. The extent of the effects of liming in terms of depth and improvement in the root environment from the treatments were observed only partially from the changes observed in the chemical properties studied.

Frequency of Leptospira spp. in sheep from Brazilian slaughterhouses and its association with epidemiological variables

Leptospirosis is a worldwide anthropozoonosis that infects livestock, including sheep as the carriers to other animals and humans. The present study aimed to determine the prevalence of Leptospira spp. in sheep from two slaughterhouses in the state of São Paulo, Brazil and its association with epidemiological variables. Serum samples from 182 sheep were evaluated for Leptospira spp. antibodies by microscopic agglutination test (MAT). Results indicated 34/182 (18.68%; CI95% 13.70-24.98%) positive serum samples, mainly to the serovar Copenhageni (17/34; 50%; CI95% 33.99-66.01%). Bacterial growth in the Fletcher medium was detected for 13/34 (38.24%; CI95% 23.87-55.08%) animals, and confirmed by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and sequencing for only two kidney samples from two animals. Thus, treatment and vaccination of sheep, besides rodent control, can be useful to prevent the infection in the studied region since sheep are important Leptospira spp. carriers, and its transmission to slaughterhouse workers is mainly through the manipulation of visceral tissues.

Global literature of fiddler crabs, genus Uca (Decapoda, Ocypodidae): trends and future directions

Crabs of the genus Uca Leach, 1814 are characterized by having strong sexual dimorphism and a global distribution. Currently, 97 species have been described and analyzed under several aspects, including population ecology, physiology and ethology. However, there is no general summary of the information from the various literatures. The aim of this study is to perform a scientometric analysis of fiddler crab studies. For this we searched papers available in the Thomson ISI database that contained the words "Uca" OR "fiddler* crab*" between the years 1991 and 2007. For each paper, we researched and recorded the following characteristics: publication year; journal of publication; the first author's nationality; the country where the study was conducted; study type; species studied; and the work area. Our results indicated that there was no increase in the number of articles through the years considered. The Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology published most of the articles on Uca, indicating the importance of this group as a model for testing ecological hypotheses using experimental approaches. Our results also showed that United States had the highest number of authors and published studies on Uca, following the overall trend in dominance on scientific research. Furthermore, using models with three variables (per capita income, number of species of Uca and extent of coastal countries) we observed that, according to the Akaike Information Criterion, the per capita income was the most important correlate for the number of articles per country (both the author's country and country of study). Additionally, our results show that the species U. pugilator (distributed on the East Coast of the North American continent) was the species most singularly referenced in the papers considered. Moreover, our results indicate that most studies on Uca use a descriptive and local scale. The majority of papers in our literature search reflect studies in population biology, followed by behavioral and physiological characteristics.

Prevalence of latent tuberculosis and treatment adherence among patients with chronic kidney disease in Campo Grande, State of Mato Grosso do Sul

Introduction The primary strategy for tuberculosis control involves identifying individuals with latent tuberculosis. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of latent tuberculosis in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients who were undergoing hemodialysis in Campo Grande, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, to characterize the sociodemographic and clinical profiles of patients with latent tuberculosis, to verify the association between sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and the occurrence of latent tuberculosis, and to monitor patient adherence to latent tuberculosis treatment. Methods This epidemiological study involved 418 CKD patients who were undergoing hemodialysis and who underwent a tuberculin skin test. Results The prevalence of latent tuberculosis was 10.3%. The mean patient age was 53.43±14.97 years, and the patients were predominantly men (63.9%). The population was primarily Caucasian (58.6%); half (50%) were married, and 49.8% had incomplete primary educations. Previous contact with tuberculosis patients was reported by 80% of the participants. Treatment adherence was 97.7%. Conclusions We conclude that the prevalence of latent tuberculosis in our study population was low. Previous contact with patients with active tuberculosis increased the occurrence of latent infection. Although treatment adherence was high in this study, it is crucial to monitor tuberculosis treatment administered to patients in health services to maintain this high rate.

Analysis of variables that are not directly observable: influence on decision-making during the research process

The sample dimension, types of variables, format used for measurement, and construction of instruments to collect valid and reliable data must be considered during the research process. In the social and health sciences, and more specifically in nursing, data-collection instruments are usually composed of latent variables or variables that cannot be directly observed. Such facts emphasize the importance of deciding how to measure study variables (using an ordinal scale or a Likert or Likert-type scale). Psychometric scales are examples of instruments that are affected by the type of variables that comprise them, which could cause problems with measurement and statistical analysis (parametric tests versus non-parametric tests). Hence, investigators using these variables must rely on suppositions based on simulation studies or recommendations based on scientific evidence in order to make the best decisions.

Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae) throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months) has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

Predicting chick body mass by artificial intelligence-based models

The objective of this work was to develop, validate, and compare 190 artificial intelligence-based models for predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age subjected to different duration and intensities of thermal challenge. The experiment was conducted inside four climate-controlled wind tunnels using 210 chicks. A database containing 840 datasets (from 2 to 21-day-old chicks) - with the variables dry-bulb air temperature, duration of thermal stress (days), chick age (days), and the daily body mass of chicks - was used for network training, validation, and tests of models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and neuro-fuzzy networks (NFNs). The ANNs were most accurate in predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age after they were subjected to the input variables, and they showed an R² of 0.9993 and a standard error of 4.62 g. The ANNs enable the simulation of different scenarios, which can assist in managerial decision-making, and they can be embedded in the heating control systems.

Description of epidemics of coffee rust with neural networks

The objective of this paper was to evaluate the potential of neural networks (NN) as an alternative method to the basic epidemiological approach to describe epidemics of coffee rust. The NN was developed from the intensities of coffee (Coffea arabica) rust along with the climatic variables collected in Lavras-MG between 13 February 1998 and 20 April 2001. The NN was built with climatic variables that were either selected in a stepwise regression analysis or by the Braincel® system, software for NN building. Fifty-nine networks and 26 regression models were tested. The best models were selected based on small values of the mean square deviation (MSD) and of the mean prediction error (MPE). For the regression models, the highest coefficients of determination (R²) were used. The best model developed with neural networks had an MSD of 4.36 and an MPE of 2.43%. This model used the variables of minimum temperature, production, relative humidity of the air, and irradiance 30 days before the evaluation of disease. The best regression model was developed from 29 selected climatic variables in the network. The summary statistics for this model were: MPE=6.58%, MSE=4.36, and R²=0.80. The elaborated neural networks from a time series also were evaluated to describe the epidemic. The incidence of coffee rust at four previous fortnights resulted in a model with MPE=4.72% and an MSD=3.95.

Epidemiological analysis of clones and cultivars of potato in soil naturally infested with Ralstonia solanacearum biovar 2

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the progress of Ralstonia solanacearum bacterial potato wilt biovar 2 (race 3) in 14 potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) cultivars or clones, the resistance of potato clone MB 03 (selected in Brasília, Brazil) to race 1 of R. solanacearum, and the occurrence of the pathogen in tubers harvested from asymptomatic potato plants. During the spring (September to the end of November in the southern hemisphere) of 1999 and 2000, 14 cultivars or clones were grown in a field naturally infested with R. solanacearum biovar 2, in Caxias do Sul, RS. The number of wilted potato plants was recorded each week and a disease progress curve plotted, the resistance of the potato genotypes to bacterial wilt being evaluated by determining the area under the curve. Various models were evaluated to fit the curves, with the logistic model being the best fit. At the end of each growing season tubers produced by asymptomatic plants were harvested and stored until budding and then tested for the presence of R. solanacearum. Cultivar Cruza 148 and clone MB 03 were the most resistant but both showed tubers with latent infections. The epidemiological implications of the incidence of R. solanacearum biovar 2 (race 3) in potato crops, as well as the resistance of certain genotypes that may harbor latent infections, are important aspects to be considered in the integrated management of bacterial wilt.

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

The increasing demand of consumer markets for the welfare of birds in poultry house has motivated many scientific researches to monitor and classify the welfare according to the production environment. Given the complexity between the birds and the environment of the aviary, the correct interpretation of the conduct becomes an important way to estimate the welfare of these birds. This study obtained multiple logistic regression models with capacity of estimating the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to the environment of the aviaries and behaviors expressed by the birds. In the experiment, were observed several behaviors expressed by breeders housed in a climatic chamber under controlled temperatures and three different ammonia concentrations from the air monitored daily. From the analysis of the data it was obtained two logistic regression models, of which the first model uses a value of ammonia concentration measured by unit and the second model uses a binary value to classify the ammonia concentration that is assigned by a person through his olfactory perception. The analysis showed that both models classified the broiler breeder's welfare successfully.