26 resultados para energy forecasting

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study aims to understand how Chinese enterprises acted in Brazilian energy and telecommunication sectors in the past ten years and whether they would be leading to an increase in the asymmetries between Brazil and China. It argues that the asymmetries presented in the relations are due in large part to successful Chinese enterprises' strategies.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

If the world is not to jeopardize the chances for human life on Earth, climate change must be mitigated; therefore, achieving low carbon development is crucial. China is the world's greatest GHG emitter, energy producer and energy consumer; investigating its energy-climate policy developments and international positions are of utmost importance to understand and tackle current stumbling blocks of the global energy and climate governance.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The participation of citizens in public policies is an opportunity not only to educate them, but also to increase their empowerment. However, the best way for deploying participatory policies, defining their scope and approach, still remains an open and continuous debate. Using as a case study the Brazilian National Agency of Electric Energy (Aneel), with its public hearings about tariff review, this paper aims at analyzing the democratic aspects of these hearings and challenges the hypothesis of many scholars about the social participation bias in this kind of procedure. This study points out a majority participation of experts, contrasting with the political content of discussions. And, this way, it contributes to a critical analysis of the public hearings as a participatory tool, indicating their strengths and their aspects which deserve a special attention.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

It is still controversial whether intestinal parasitic infections can influence the nutritional status of children. The relationship between protein-energy malnutrition, vitamin A and parasitic infections was evaluated in 124 children. The food intake estimated by recall method was generally low and poor. Seventy five percent of the children were infected with intestinal parasites. The mean±SD weight-for-age and height-for-age Z-score were skewed one standard deviation to the left, when compared to normal standards. An association was found between protein-energy malnutrition and Giardia lamblia, but not with Ascaris lumbricoides or Hymenolepis nana infection. Only Giardia-infected children had a decreased weight-for-age and weight-for-height Z-score. Hypovitaminosis A was a major nutritional problem, but no relationship between this deficiency and parasitic infection was found. Our data indicate that low and poor food intake were the major cause of protein-energy malnutrition among the children, and except for Giardia, this was not influenced by parasitic infections.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Prolonged total food deprivation in non-obese adults is rare, and few studies have documented body composition changes in this setting. In a group of eight hunger strikers who refused alimentation for 43 days, water and energy compartments were estimated, aiming to assess the impact of progressive starvation. Measurements included body mass index (BMI), triceps skinfold (TSF), arm muscle circumference (AMC), and bioimpedance (BIA) determinations of water, fat, lean body mass (LBM), and total resistance. Indirect calorimetry was also performed in one occasion. The age of the group was 43.3±6.2 years (seven males, one female). Only water, intermittent vitamins and electrolytes were ingested, and average weight loss reached 17.9%. On the last two days of the fast (43rd-44th day) rapid intravenous fluid, electrolyte, and vitamin replenishment were provided before proceeding with realimentation. Body fat decreased approximately 60% (BIA and TSF), whereas BMI reduced only 18%. Initial fat was estimated by BIA as 52.2±5.4% of body weight, and even on the 43rd day it was still measured as 19.7±3.8% of weight. TSF findings were much lower and commensurate with other anthropometric results. Water was comparatively low with high total resistance, and these findings rapidly reversed upon the intravenous rapid hydration. At the end of the starvation period, BMI (21.5±2.6 kg/m²) and most anthropometric determinations were still acceptable, suggesting efficient energy and muscle conservation. Conclusions: 1) All compartments diminished during fasting, but body fat was by far the most affected; 2) Total water was low and total body resistance comparatively elevated, but these findings rapidly reversed upon rehydration; 3) Exaggerated fat percentage estimates from BIA tests and simultaneous increase in lean body mass estimates suggested that this method was inappropriate for assessing energy compartments in the studied population; 4) Patients were not morphologically malnourished after 43 days of fasting; however, the prognostic impact of other impairments was not considered in this analysis.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Energy expenditure was measured by indirect calorimetry in 17 adult patients (8 women and 9 men) before surgery, 4 hours immediately after surgery , and 24 hours late after surgery in patients undergoing elective surgery of small-to-medium scope. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The total duration of surgery ranged from 2 to 3 hours. Repeated measures were performed on the same patient, so that each patient was considered to be his/her own control. All patients received a 5% dextrose solution (2000 mL/day) throughout the postoperative period. RESULTS: Men showed a reduction in CO2 production during the immediately after surgery period (257±42 mL/min) compared to before surgery (306±48 mL/min) and late after surgery (301±45 mL/min); this reduction was not observed in women. Energy expenditure was also lower in men during immediately after surgery (6.6 kJ/min). None of the other measurements, including substrate oxidation, showed significant differences. CONCLUSION: Therefore, elective surgery itself cannot be considered an important trauma that would result in increased energy expenditure. According to this study, it is not necessary to prescribe an energy supply exceeding basal expenditure during the immediate after-surgery period. The present results suggest that the energy supply prescribed during the postoperative period after elective surgery of small-to-medium scope should not exceed 5-7 kJ/min, so the patient does not receive a carbohydrate overload from energy supplementation.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Charcoal is an important energy raw material and its properties are influenced by the wood's anatomical and chemical composition and the production process. The aim of this study was to evaluate the anatomical characteristics, calorific power and volatiles and ash content of carbonized wood from Byrsonima spicata, Calophyllum brasiliense, Cecropia sciadophylla, Cochlospermum orinocense and Schefflera morototoni. The calorific power varied from 26,878 to 31,117 kJ kg-1; the content of volatile materials ranged from 20.9 to 31.7%; ash content ranged from 0.1 to 3.8%; and carbon content varied from 68.2 to 75.3%. Anatomical structures of charcoal can be used for species identification. The studied species are not indicated for charcoal production because the levels of ash and volatile compounds are higher than those recommended for charcoal produced for household use. In addition, the calorific power and level of carbon content are insufficient for use in the steel industry.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVE - To investigate the initial energy level required for electrical cardioversion of atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS - We studied patients undergoing electrical cardioversion in the 1st Multicenter Trial of SOCESP. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the initial energy level of electrical cardioversion: 100J and > or = 150J. We compared the efficacy of the initial and final shock of the procedure, the number of shocks administered, and the cumulative energy levels. RESULTS - Eight-six patients underwent electrical cardioversion. In 53 patients (62%), cardioversion was started with 100J, and in 33 patients (38%), cardioversion was started with > or = 150J. Groups did not differ regarding clinical features and therapeutical interventions. A tendency existed towards greater efficacy of the initial shock in patients who received > or = 150J (61% vs. 42% in the 100J group, p=0.08). The number of shocks was smaller in the > or = 150J group (1.5±0.7 vs. 2.1±1.3, p=0.04). No difference existed regarding the final efficacy of electrical cardioversion and total cumulative energy levels in both groups. In the subgroup of patients with recent-onset AF (<=48h), the cumulative energy level was lower in the 100J group (240±227J vs. 324±225J, p=0.03). CONCLUSION - Patients who were given initial energy of > or = 150J received fewer counter shocks with a tendency toward greater success than those patients who were given 100J; however, in patients with recent-onset AF, the average cumulative energy level was lower in the 100J group. These data suggest that electrical cardioversion should be initiated with energy levels > or = 150J in patients with chronic AF.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The nuptial flight allows males and females to meet and copulate and both need energy to perform this activity. Before leaving the nest, males and females are well nourished and ready to mate. However, little is known about the lipid and energy contents in females before the nuptial flight (virgins) and after it (mated females). In this work we measured lipid concentrations in relation to body weight in these individuals. Our results showed that 16.82% of the bodies of young virgin females one month before mating flight are composed of lipids, contrasting with the 32.62% lipid content in mated females who had not excavated their nest yet, and 32.88% in those who had. The energy content measured for virgin females was 2942.63 J, contrasting with 6110.01 J for queens before excavating the nest and 5677.51 J after excavation. Based on our results, we conclude that the body mass, and therefore the lipid and energy contents in the bodies of Atta sexdens rubropilosa queens double during the last month before the nuptial flight. This energy resource is fundamental to the activities required during the nuptial flight, digging the nest and the founding of the colony.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Energy substrate used by workers of leaf-cutting ants during nest excavation. In this study we aimed to ascertain whether leaf-cutting ant workers lose body reserves (fat or sugars) as a function of nest excavation. For each treatment, we isolated 10 workers of Atta sexdens into two experimental groups, Control (C- without excavation) and Soil (S- with excavation), which were kept for different time intervals (0, 24, 48 or 72 hours), totaling 700 tested workers. We then determined the concentration of soluble carbohydrates and total lipid content in them. The total carbohydrates were determined colorimetrically, based on the reaction between carbohydrates and sulfuric acid-phenol. For determination of lipids, the insects were immersed in organic solvent until they reached a constant weight. Our results showed that carbohydrates are consumed during nest excavation activities. In the experimental groups S24, S48 and S72, there was an average reduction of 5.82 (20.42%), 14.31 (44.96%) and 13.27 (43.96%) µ.mg-1 in soluble sugar when compared with the experimental groups that did not excavate. Furthermore, the lipids were not used during this activity. With respect to dry mass of the workers, their values were C0 = 8%, C24 = 10.4%, C48 = 9.2%, C72 = 10%, S24 = 9.2%, S48 = 8.7% and S72 = 8.5%. Our results show experimentally that the source of energy for nest excavation is carbohydrates, whereas lipids are conserved for other activities.