Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

Predição da demanda química de oxigênio em chorume maduro contendo reagente de Fenton, por meio de modelo matemático empírico gerado com planejamento fatorial completo

COD is an important parameter to estimate the concentration of organic contaminants. The closed system technique with the use of K2Cr2O7 is the most important one, however, it has the inconvenience to suffer positive chemical interferences from inorganic compounds such as Fe2+ and H2O2 (not enough reported in the literature). This paper considers a statistical-experimental set capable to validate a empirical mathematical model generated from a 23 experimental design, in the presence of Fe2+ and H2O2. The t test shows that mathematical model has 99,99999% confidence degree and the experimental validation test indicates absolute mean error of 4,70%.

Probing the (empirical) quantum structure embedded in the periodic table with an effective Bohr model

The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum) shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-)quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u) was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z) shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z) ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

Intestinal fibrovascular nodules caused by Schistosoma mansoni infection in Calomys callosus Rengger, 1830 (Rodentia: Cricetidae): a model of concomitant fibrosis and angiogenesis

Human schistosomiasis develops extensive and dense fibrosis in portal space, together with congested new blood vessels. This study demonstrates that Calomys callosus infected with Schistosoma mansoni also develops fibrovascular lesions, which are found in intestinal subserosa. Animals were percutaneously infected with 70 cercariae and necropsied at 42, 45, 55, 80, 90 and 160 days after infection. Intestinal sections were stained for brightfield, polarization microscopy, confocal laser scanning, transmission and scanning electron microscopies. Immunohistological analysis was also performed and some nodules were aseptically collected for cell culture. Numerous intestinal nodules, appearing from 55 up to 160 days after infection, were localized at the interface between external muscular layer and intestinal serosa, consisting of fibrovascular tissue forming a shell about central granuloma(s). Intranodular new vessels were derived from the vasculature of the external vascular layer and were positive for laminin, chondroitin-sulfate, smooth muscle alpha-actin and FVIII-RA. Fibroblastic cells and extracellular matrix components (collagens I, III and VI, fibronectin and tenascin) comprised the stroma. Intermixed with the fibroblasts and vessels there were variable number of eosinophils, macrophages and haemorrhagic foci. In conclusion, the nodules constitute an excellent and accessible model to study fibrogenesis and angiogenesis, dependent on S. mansoni eggs. The fibrogenic activity is fibroblastic and not myofibroblastic-dependent. The angiogenesis is so prominent that causes haemorrhagic ascites.

Base temperature and simulation model for nodes appearance in cape gooseberry (Physalis peruviana L.)

Data was analyzed on development of the solanaceen fruit crop Cape gooseberry to evaluate how well a classical thermal time model could describe node appearance in different environments. The data used in the analysis were obtained from experiments conducted in Colombia in open fields and greenhouse condition at two locations with different climate. An empirical, non linear segmented model was used to estimate the base temperature and to parameterize the model for simulation of node appearance vs. time. The base temperature (Tb) used to calculate the thermal time (TT, ºCd) for node appearance was estimated to be 6.29 ºC. The slope of the first linear segment was 0.023 nodes per TT and 0.008 for the second linear segment. The time at which the slope of node apperance changed was 1039.5 ºCd after transplanting, determined from a statistical analysis of model for the first segment. When these coefficients were used to predict node appearance at all locations, the model successfully fit the observed data (RSME=2.1), especially for the first segment where node appearance was more homogeneous than the second segment. More nodes were produced by plants grown under greenhouse conditions and minimum and maximum rates of node appearance rates were also higher.

Model for subchannel friction factors and flow redistribution in wire-wrapped rod bundles

The fuel element of LMFBR consists of a bundle of rods wrapped with an helical wire as spacer, surrounded by an hexagonal duct. In the present work, a semi-empirical model is developed to calculate bundle average and subchannel based friction factors and flow redistribution. The obtained results were compared to experimental data and they were considered satisfactory for wide range of geometrical parameters.

Analysis of applicability of Peleg model to the cooking-infusion of mackerel (Scomber japonicus) slices

Mass transfer kinetics in osmotic dehydration is usually modeled by Fick's law, empirical models and probabilistic models. The aim of this study was to determine the applicability of Peleg model to investigate the mass transfer during osmotic dehydration of mackerel (Scomber japonicus) slices at different temperatures. Osmotic dehydration was performed on mackerel slices by cooking-infusion in solutions with glycerol and salt (a w = 0.64) at different temperatures: 50, 70, and 90 ºC. Peleg rate constant (K1) (h(g/gdm)-1) varied with temperature variation from 0.761 to 0.396 for water loss, from 5.260 to 2.947 for salt gain, and from 0.854 to 0.566 for glycerol intake. In all cases, it followed the Arrhenius relationship (R²>0.86). The Ea (kJ / mol) values obtained were 16.14; 14.21, and 10.12 for water, salt, and glycerol, respectively. The statistical parameters that qualify the goodness of fit (R²>0.91 and RMSE<0.086) indicate promising applicability of Peleg model.

Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries.

Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: empirical estimation

The aim of this paper is to discuss the trend of overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s, presenting an econometric model to estimate the real exchange rate (RER) and which should be a reference level of the RER to guide long-term economic policy. In the econometric model, we consider long-term structural and short-term components, both of which may be responsible for explaining overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency. Our econometric exercise confirms that the Brazilian currency had been persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis, and we suggest that the long-term reference level of the real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In July 2014, the average nominal exchange rate should have been around 2.90 Brazilian reais per dollar (against an observed nominal rate of 2.22 Brazilian reais per dollar) to achieve the 2004 real reference level (average of the year). That is, according to our estimates, in July 2014 the Brazilian real was overvalued at 30.6 per cent in real terms relative to the reference level. Based on these findings we conclude the paper suggesting a mix of policy instruments that should have been used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching a real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run which would favor resource allocation toward more technological intensive sectors.