INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Influence of nitrogen fertilization and green manure on the economic feasibility of no-tilled wheat in the Cerrado

The search for higher profitability in wheat crop with cost reduction technologies that may promote sustainability is an important matter in Brazilian agriculture. This study evaluated the profitability of no-tilled wheat, reducing nitrogen topdressing doses with the cultivation of green manure before the wheat crop. The experiment was carried out in Selvíria (MS), Brazil, in 2009/10. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design with 36 treatments in splitplots and four replicates. The plots were formed by six types of green manure: Cajanus cajan L. BRS Mandarin, Crotalaria juncea L., Pennisetum americanum L. BRS 1501, fallow area and mixed cropping of Pennisetum americanum L. + Cajanus cajan L. and Pennisetum americanum L. + crotalaria which provided straw for no-tilled wheat in the winter, following the rice crop in the summer. The subplots were formed by six levels of topdressing nitrogen (0, 25, 50, 75, 100 and 125 kg N ha-1) using urea as a nitrogen source. The wheat grown after green manure in the previous winter crop, with no nitrogen topdressing and a rate of 25 kg ha-1 N, had more frequently production costs above the gross income. Wheat production cost after the mixed cropping Pennisetum americanum L. + Cajanus cajan L. and Pennisetum americanum L. + Crotalaria juncea L. from the previous winter crop, combined with nitrogen rates of 50 and 75 kg N ha-1, provided better profitability compared with the other green manures evaluated.

Production costs and fruit yield profitability in the initial harvest of custard apple trees

The aim of this study was to estimate the production cost and economic indicators associated with the production and sales of fruits from 20 custard apple progenies during the initial five harvests, in order to identify the harvest season from which custard apple exploitation becomes profitable, as well as the most promising progenies from an economic point of view. The fruit yield data upon which the present work was based were obtained during the period from 2001 to 2005, in an experiment that evaluated 20 custard apple half-sibling progenies, under sprinkler irrigation. The progenies were evaluated in a random block design with five replicates and plots consisting of four plants each. The exploitation of custard apple progenies only showed to be a profitable agribusiness after the fourth year. Before that, only A3 and A4 progenies in the second year, and P3 and P11 in the third year provided profitable incomes. Considering the methodological assumptions imposed concerning the time period analysis and the prices as of July 2007, the most important profitability indicators (operating profit, return index and equilibrium price) evidenced that the A4 progeny is the most recommended, although other progenies are also highlighted, such as FJ1 and FJ2. As already discussed, the progenies showing the highest average yields of five harvests are not always the most economically recommendable ones.

Technical and economic analysis of irrigation of asparagus bean in protected environment

This experiment was conducted in Lavras - state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, in a protected environment, and aims to estimate the irrigation depths that maximize productivity and economic returns in the cultivation of asparagus bean and analyze the economic viability of irrigation management. The experimental delineation was randomized blocks with five treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of five drip irrigation depths: 40, 70, 100, 130 and 160% of water replacement depth up to field capacity. The depths of water that maximize productivity and economic returns were obtained from the regression model adjusted to productivity data, cost of product relations and water cost. The economic viability was achieved on the benefit/cost ratio basis. The depth with the maximum economic return was estimated in 434.4mm, with a productivity of 35,160.6kg ha-1, which is economically viable for the cultivation of asparagus bean, with a expected profitability of R$ 1.70 for every real invested.

Technical and economic indicators of the yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with underground water supply

The research aimed to quantify technical and economic indicators of yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with fractions of irrigation with underground source of water, to generate information that helps farmers in decision making on the implementation of investment in irrigated fruit growing (yellow passion fruit). For this purpose, we used the passion fruit crop irrigated with Microjet type irrigation system, with conducting system in simple espaliers. The treatments consisted of five hours of application of the depth of water required by the crop with irrigation frequency of two days. The results showed that the highest yield (16660kg ha-1) was obtained with the fractionation of irrigation twice a day (50% to 7h and 50% to 21h30), which provided an increase in productivity of 54%, demonstrating the financial viability and being highly profitable to the interest rate of 2% per year, with low sensitivity of financial risk to real interest rates above the prevailing market.

Brazil and the economic, political, and environmental multilateralism: the Lula years (2003-2010)

This article discusses Brazil's multilateral policy under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration, highlighting economic, political and environmental themes. The main argument is that Brazil's multilateral relations during this government reached a new significance with the reinforcement of international coalitions and the articulation with the country's new development model. The country has been using multilateral forums as a way to achieve international projection and support for its development project, highlighting bargaining aspects, variable geometry coalitions and the strengthening of South-South cooperation

Economic sanctions and human rights: an analysis of competing enforcement strategies in Latin America

This article addresses the consequences of economic sanctions for the protection of human rights in Latin America. The literature on sanctions and compliance informs three hypotheses, which investigate the relationship between sanctions and the level of rights protection in two groups of countries: those that were targeted by sanctions and those that were not. Using data from the Political Terror Scale (PTS) and from Freedom House, I find empirical evidence that sanctions do improve the level of protection in countries that were not targeted. This finding can be explained by the deterrent effect attributed to sanctions by the compliance literature, broadly interpreted. The presence of economic sanctions in a given year increases the probability of observing better human rights practices by almost 50%. These results hold for the 12 Latin American countries that were not subject to economic sanctions for the period 1976-2004.

International drivers of Brazilian agricultural cooperation in Africa in the post-2008 economic crisis

This text focuses on the major drivers of Brazilian agricultural cooperation in Africa as conceived and pursued from 2004 to 2014, with emphasis on the impacts of political and economic international changes that took place in that period, and particularly the impacts of the 2008 economic crisis, in framing Brazil's foreign policy and development assistance initiatives. It addresses current international forces and developments at the systemic level, but also analyses recent economic domestic developments, in particular those directly related to Brazilian agriculture and those related to the policy framework of its evolving internationalization. Special attention is paid to the dual dimensions of Brazilian agricultural policy and to its projection in agricultural cooperation as pursed in Africa.

Economic viability of the third milking in systems of production using closed-circuit mechanical milking

This study aimed to analyze the economic viability of the third milking in production systems using mechanical milking in a closed circuit, aiming to provide technicians and farmers with information to assist them in decision-making. Specifically, it intended: (a) to estimate the cost of one milking; (b) to estimate the cost of the third milking; (c) to develop a mathematical equation to estimate the minimum amount of milk produced with two milkings, from which it would be economically feasible to do the third milking. Data were collected from three dairy farms, from November 2010 to March 2011, keeping a twice-a-day milking frequency, with three data collections in each farm, totalizing nine collections. Considering the average data, it would be feasible to do the third milking if the average milk yield per day of lactating cows in a twice-a-day milking frequency was greater than or equal to 24.43 kg of milk.