Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Fiscal policy and private investment: latin america in a comparative perspective

The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin-American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified.

Severity of chronic experimental Chagas' heart disease parallels tumour necrosis factor and nitric oxide levels in the serum: models of mild and severe disease

Heart tissue inflammation, progressive fibrosis and electrocardiographic alterations occur in approximately 30% of patients infected by Trypanosoma cruzi, 10-30 years after infection. Further, plasma levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and nitric oxide (NO) are associated with the degree of heart dysfunction in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). Thus, our aim was to establish experimental models that mimic a range of parasitological, pathological and cardiac alterations described in patients with chronic Chagas’ heart disease and evaluate whether heart disease severity was associated with increased TNF and NO levels in the serum. Our results show that C3H/He mice chronically infected with the Colombian T. cruzi strain have more severe cardiac parasitism and inflammation than C57BL/6 mice. In addition, connexin 43 disorganisation and fibronectin deposition in the heart tissue, increased levels of creatine kinase cardiac MB isoenzyme activity in the serum and more severe electrical abnormalities were observed in T. cruzi-infected C3H/He mice compared to C57BL/6 mice. Therefore, T. cruzi-infected C3H/He and C57BL/6 mice represent severe and mild models of CCC, respectively. Moreover, the CCC severity paralleled the TNF and NO levels in the serum. Therefore, these models are appropriate for studying the pathophysiology and biomarkers of CCC progression, as well as for testing therapeutic agents for patients with Chagas’ heart disease.

Periodic dynamic systems for infected hosts and mosquitoes

A mathematical model for the purpose of analysing the dynamic of the populations of infected hosts anf infected mosquitoes when the populations of mosquitoes are periodic in time is here presented. By the computation of a parameter lambda (the spectral radius of a certain monodromy matrix) one can state that either the infection peters out naturally) (lambda <= 1) or if lambda > 1 the infection becomes endemic. The model generalizes previous models for malaria by considering the case of periodic coefficients; it is also a variation of that for gonorrhea. The main motivation for the consideration of this present model was the recent studies on mosquitoes at an experimental rice irrigation system, in the South-Eastern region of Brazil.

Cell-matrix interactions in Schistosomal portal fibrosis: a dynamic event

In recent years, one of the most significant progress in the understanding of liver diseases was the demonstration that liver fibrosis is a dynamic process resulting from a balance between synthesis and degradation of several matrix components, collagen in particular. Thus, fibrosis has been found to be a very early event during liver diseases, be it of toxic, viral or parasitic origin, and to be spontaneously reversible, either partially or totally. In liver fibrosis cell matrix interactions are dependent on the existence of the many factors (sometimes acting in combination) which produce the same events at the cellular and molecular levels. These events are: (i) the recruitment of fiber-producing cells, (ii) their proliferation, (iii) the secretion of matrix constituents of the extracellular matrix, and (iv) the remodeling and degradation of the newly formed matrix. All these events represent, at least in principle, a target for a therapeutic intervention aimed at influencing the experimentally induced hepatic fibrosis. In this context, hepatosplenic schistosomiasis is of particular interest, being an immune cell-mediated granulomatous disease and a model of liver fibrosis allowing extensive studies in human and animals as well as providing original in vitro models.

Participation of interleukin-5, interleukin-8 and leukotriene B4 in eosinophil accumulation in two different experimental models

There are several experimental models describing in vivo eosinophil (EO) migration, including ip injection of a large volume of saline (SAL) or Sephadex beads (SEP). The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms involved in the EO migration in these two models. Two consecutive injections of SAL given 48 hr apart, induced a selective recruitment of EO into peritoneal cavity of rats, which peaked 48 hr after the last injection. SEP, when injected ip, promoted EO accumulation in rats. The phenomenom was dose-related and peaked 48 hr after SEP injection. To investigate the mediators involved in this process we showed that BW A4C, MK 886 and dexamethasone (DXA) inhibited the EO migration induced by SAL and SEP. To investigate the source of the EO chemotactic factor we showed that mast cells, macrophages (MO), but not lymphocytes, incubated in vitro in presence of SAL released a factor which induced EO migration. With SEP, only mast cells release a factor that induced EO migration, which was inhibited by BW A4C, MK 886 and DXA. Furthermore, the chemotactic activity of SAL-stimulated mast cells was inhibited by antisera against IL-5 and IL-8 (interleukin). SAL-stimulated MO were only inhibited by anti-IL-8 antibodies as well SEP-stimulated mast cells. These results suggest that the EO migration induced by SAL may be dependent on resident mast cells and MO and mediated by LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8. SEP-induced EO migration was dependent on mast cells and may be mediated by LTB4 and IL-8. Furthermore, IL-5 and IL-8 induced EO migration, which was also dependent on resident cells and mediated by LTB4 . In conclusion, EO migration induced by SAL is dependent on mast cells and MO, whereas that induced by SEP is dependent on mast cells alone. Stimulated mast cells release LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8 while MO release LTB4 and IL-8. The IL-5 and IL-8 release by the SAL or SEP-stimulated resident cells may act in an autocrine fashion, thus potentiating LTB4 release.

Role of eosinophilic airway inflammation in models of asthma

Eosinophils play a central role in the establishment and outcome of bronchial inflammation in asthma. Animal models of allergy are useful to answer questions related to mechanisms of allergic inflammation. We have used models of sensitized and boosted guinea pigs to investigate the nature of bronchial inflammation in allergic conditions. These animals develop marked bronchial infiltration composed mainly of CD4+ T-lymphocytes and eosinophils. Further provocation with antigen leads to degranulation of eosinophils and ulceration of the bronchial mucosa. Eosinophils are the first cells to increase in numbers in the mucosa after antigen challenge and depend on the expression of alpha 4 integrin to adhere to the vascular endothelium and transmigrate to the mucosa. Blockage of alpha4 integrin expression with specific antibody prevents not only the transmigration of eosinophils but also the development of bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to agonists in sensitized and challenged animals, clearly suggesting a role for this cell type in this altered functional state. Moreover, introduction of antibody against Major Basic Protein into the airways also prevents the development of BHR in similar model. BHR can also be suppressed by the use of FK506, an immunosuppressor that reduces in almost 100% the infiltration of eosinophils into the bronchi of allergic animals. These data support the concept that eosinophil is the most important pro-inflammatory factor in bronchial inflammation associated with allergy.

The generation and re-generation of social capital and enterprises in multi-stakeholders social cooperative enterprises: a system dynamic approach

Theories on social capital and on social entrepreneurship have mainly highlighted the attitude of social capital to generate enterprises and to foster good relations between third sector organizations and the public sector. This paper considers the social capital in a specific third sector enterprise; here, multi-stakeholder social cooperatives are seen, at the same time, as social capital results, creators and incubators. In the particular enterprises that identify themselves as community social enterprises, social capital, both as organizational and relational capital, is fundamental: SCEs arise from but also produce and disseminate social capital. This paper aims to improve the building of relational social capital and the refining of helpful relations drawn from other arenas, where they were created and from where they are sometimes transferred to other realities, where their role is carried on further (often working in non-profit, horizontally and vertically arranged groups, where they share resources and relations). To represent this perspective, we use a qualitative system dynamic approach in which social capital is measured using proxies. Cooperation of volunteers, customers, community leaders and third sector local organizations is fundamental to establish trust relations between public local authorities and cooperatives. These relations help the latter to maintain long-term contracts with local authorities as providers of social services and enable them to add innovation to their services, by developing experiences and management models and maintaining an interchange with civil servants regarding these matters. The long-term relations and the organizational relations linking SCEs and public organizations help to create and to renovate social capital. Thus, multi-stakeholder cooperatives originated via social capital developed in third sector organizations produce new social capital within the cooperatives themselves and between different cooperatives (entrepreneurial components of the third sector) and the public sector. In their entrepreneurial life, cooperatives have to contrast the "working drift," as a result of which only workers remain as members of the cooperative, while other stakeholders leave the organization. Those who are not workers in the cooperative are (stake)holders with "weak ties," who are nevertheless fundamental in making a worker's cooperative an authentic social multi-stakeholders cooperative. To maintain multi-stakeholder governance and the relations with third sector and civil society, social cooperatives have to reinforce participation and dialogue with civil society through ongoing efforts to include people that provide social proposals. We try to represent these processes in a system dynamic model applied to local cooperatives, measuring the social capital created by the social cooperative through proxies, such as number of volunteers and strong cooperation with public institutions. Using a reverse-engineering approach, we can individuate the determinants of the creation of social capital and thereby give support to governance that creates social capital.

Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567), yearling weight (n=58,124), and scrotal circumference (n=20,371) of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF) and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM) included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R) included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

Auger-type granular fertylizer distributor: matemathical model and dynamic simulation

The objective of this study was to model mathematically and to simulate the dynamic behavior of an auger-type fertilizer applicator (AFA) in order to use the variable-rate application (VRA) and reduce the coefficient of variation (CV) of the application, proposing an angular speed controller θ' for the motor drive shaft. The input model was θ' and the response was the fertilizer mass flow, due to the construction, density of fertilizer, fill factor and the end position of the auger. The model was used to simulate a control system in open loop, with an electric drive for AFA using an armature voltage (V A) controller. By introducing a sinusoidal excitation signal in V A with amplitude and delay phase optimized and varying θ' during an operation cycle, it is obtained a reduction of 29.8% in the CV (constant V A) to 11.4%. The development of the mathematical model was a first step towards the introduction of electric drive systems and closed loop control for the implementation of AFA with low CV in VRA.

Evaluation of roof slope and exposure with different roofing materials in reduced models of animal production facilities in spring and summer

The present study was conducted at the Department of Rural Engineering and the Department of Animal Morphology and Physiology of FCAV/Unesp, Jaboticabal, SP, Brazil. The objective was to verify the influence of roof slope, exposure and roofing material on the internal temperature of reduced models of animal production facilities. For the development of the research, 48 reduced and dissemble models with dimensions 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.50 m were used. The roof was shed-type, and the models faced to the North or South directions, with 24 models for each side of exposure. Ceramic, galvanized-steel and fibro tiles were used to build the roofs. Slopes varied between 20, 30, 40 and 50% for the ceramic tile and 10, 30, 40 and 50% for the other two. Inside the models, temperature readings were performed at every hour, for 12 months. The results were evaluated in a general linear model in a nested 3 × 4 × 2 factorial arrangement, in which the effects of roofing material and exposure were nested on the factor Slope. Means were compared by the Tukey test at 5% of probability. After analyzing the data, we observed that with the increase in the slope and exposure to the South, there was a drop in the internal temperature within the model at the geographic coordinates of Jaboticabal city (SP/Brazil).

Control of the phosphorylation of the astrocyte marker glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) in the immature rat hippocampus by glutamate and calcium ions: possible key factor in astrocytic plasticity

The present review describes recent research on the regulation by glutamate and Ca2+ of the phosphorylation state of the intermediate filament protein of the astrocytic cytoskeleton, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), in immature hippocampal slices. The results of this research are discussed against a background of modern knowledge of the functional importance of astrocytes in the brain and of the structure and dynamic properties of intermediate filament proteins. Astrocytes are now recognized as partners with neurons in many aspects of brain function with important roles in neural plasticity. Site-specific phosphorylation of intermediate filament proteins, including GFAP, has been shown to regulate the dynamic equilibrium between the polymerized and depolymerized state of the filaments and to play a fundamental role in mitosis. Glutamate was found to increase the phosphorylation state of GFAP in hippocampal slices from rats in the post-natal age range of 12-16 days in a reaction that was dependent on external Ca2+. The lack of external Ca2+ in the absence of glutamate also increased GFAP phosphorylation to the same extent. These effects of glutamate and Ca2+ were absent in adult hippocampal slices, where the phosphorylation of GFAP was completely Ca2+-dependent. Studies using specific agonists of glutamate receptors showed that the glutamate response was mediated by a G protein-linked group II metabotropic glutamate receptor (mGluR). Since group II mGluRs do not act by liberating Ca2+ from internal stores, it is proposed that activation of the receptor by glutamate inhibits Ca2+ entry into the astrocytes and consequently down-regulates a Ca2+-dependent dephosphorylation cascade regulating the phosphorylation state of GFAP. The functional significance of these results may be related to the narrow developmental window when the glutamate response is present. In the rat brain this window corresponds to the period of massive synaptogenesis during which astrocytes are known to proliferate. Possibly, glutamate liberated from developing synapses during this period may signal an increase in the phosphorylation

Endothelial cells, tissue factor and infectious diseases

Tissue factor is a transmembrane procoagulant glycoprotein and a member of the cytokine receptor superfamily. It activates the extrinsic coagulation pathway, and induces the formation of a fibrin clot. Tissue factor is important for both normal homeostasis and the development of many thrombotic diseases. A wide variety of cells are able to synthesize and express tissue factor, including monocytes, granulocytes, platelets and endothelial cells. Tissue factor expression can be induced by cell surface components of pathogenic microorganisms, proinflammatory cytokines and membrane microparticles released from activated host cells. Tissue factor plays an important role in initiating thrombosis associated with inflammation during infection, sepsis, and organ transplant rejection. Recent findings suggest that tissue factor can also function as a receptor and thus may be important in cell signaling. The present minireview will focus on the role of tissue factor in the pathogenesis of septic shock, infectious endocarditis and invasive aspergillosis, as determined by both in vivo and in vitro models.

Identification of anaerobic threshold using heart rate response during dynamic exercise

The objective of the present study was to characterize the heart rate (HR) patterns of healthy males using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model over a power range assumed to correspond to the anaerobic threshold (AT) during discontinuous dynamic exercise tests (DDET). Nine young (22.3 ± 1.57 years) and 9 middle-aged (MA) volunteers (43.2 ± 3.53 years) performed three DDET on a cycle ergometer. Protocol I: DDET in steps with progressive power increases of 10 W; protocol II: DDET using the same power values as protocol 1, but applied randomly; protocol III: continuous dynamic exercise protocol with ventilatory and metabolic measurements (10 W/min ramp power), for the measurement of ventilatory AT. HR was recorded and stored beat-to-beat during DDET, and analyzed using the ARIMA (protocols I and II). The DDET experiments showed that the median physical exercise workloads at which AT occurred were similar for protocols I and II, i.e., AT occurred between 75 W (116 bpm) and 85 W (116 bpm) for the young group and between 60 W (96 bpm) and 75 W (107 bpm) for group MA in protocols I and II, respectively; in two MA volunteers the ventilatory AT occurred at 90 W (108 bpm) and 95 W (111 bpm). This corresponded to the same power values of the positive trend in HR responses. The change in HR response using ARIMA models at submaximal dynamic exercise powers proved to be a promising approach for detecting AT in normal volunteers.

Lipolysis of emulsion models of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins is altered in male patients with abdominal aorta aneurysm

Disorders of the lipid metabolism may play a role in the genesis of abdominal aorta aneurysm. The present study examined the intravascular catabolism of chylomicrons, the lipoproteins that carry the dietary lipids absorbed by the intestine in the circulation in patients with abdominal aorta aneurysm. Thirteen male patients (72 ± 5 years) with abdominal aorta aneurysm with normal plasma lipid profile and 13 healthy male control subjects (73 ± 5 years) participated in the study. The method of chylomicron-like emulsions was used to evaluate this metabolism. The emulsion labeled with 14C-cholesteryl oleate and ³H-triolein was injected intravenously in both groups. Blood samples were taken at regular intervals over 60 min to determine the decay curves. The fractional clearance rate (FCR) of the radioactive labels was calculated by compartmental analysis. The FCR of the emulsion with ³H-triolein was smaller in the aortic aneurysm patients than in controls (0.025 ± 0.017 vs 0.039 ± 0.019 min-1; P < 0.05), but the FCR of14C-cholesteryl oleate of both groups did not differ. In conclusion, as indicated by the triglyceride FCR, chylomicron lipolysis is diminished in male patients with aortic aneurysm, whereas the remnant removal which is traced by the cholesteryl oleate FCR is not altered. The results suggest that defects in the chylomicron metabolism may represent a risk factor for development of abdominal aortic aneurysm.