Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the State Of Goiás, Brazil

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering, simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90 percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.

Analysis of the relationship intensity, duration, frequency of disaggregated daily rainfall in southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The intensity, duration, and frequency relationship (IDF) of rainfall occurrence may be done through continuous records of pluviographs or daily pluviometer values . The objective of this study was to estimate the intensity-duration-frequency relationships of precipitation, using the method of daily rainfall disaggregation, at weather stations located to the southern half of the state of Rio Grande do Sul; comparing them with those obtained by rain gauge records, in places considered homogeneous from the meteorological point of view. The IDF equation parameters were estimated from daily rainfall disaggregation data, using the method of nonlinear optimization. To validate the equations confidence indices and efficiency and the "t" Student test, among maximum intensity values obtained from the disaggregated daily rainfall durations of 10; 30; 60 min and 6; 12 and 24 h and those extracted from existing IDF equations. For all studied stations and return periods, the trust index values were regarded as "optimal", i.e., greater than 0.85. The maximal intensity of rainfall obtained by daily rainfall disaggregation have similarity with those obtained by relations IDF standards. Thus, the method constitutes a feasible alternative in obtaining the IDF relationships.

Method adjustment and equation set of maximum rainfall intensity, duration and frequency in the Mato Grosso do Sul State

Due to the lack of information concerning maximum rainfall equations for most locations in Mato Grosso do Sul State, the alternative for carrying out hydraulic work projects has been information from meteorological stations closest to the location in which the project is carried out. Alternative methods, such as 24 hours rain disaggregation method from rainfall data due to greater availability of stations and longer observations can work. Based on this approach, the objective of this study was to estimate maximum rainfall equations for Mato Grosso do Sul State by adjusting the 24 hours rain disaggregation method, depending on data obtained from rain gauge stations from Dourado and Campo Grande. For this purpose, data consisting of 105 rainfall stations were used, which are available in the ANA (Water Resources Management National Agency) database. Based on the results we concluded: the intense rainfall equations obtained by pluviogram analysis showed determination coefficient above 99%; and the performance of 24 hours rain disaggregation method was classified as excellent, based on relative average error WILMOTT concordance index (1982).

Versão brasileira do Dynamic Gait Index

O Dynamic Gait Index (DGI) é um teste que avalia o equilíbrio e marcha do corpo humano. OBJETIVOS: Os objetivos deste estudo foram adaptar culturalmente o DGI para o português e avaliar a sua confiabilidade. MATERIAL E MÉTODO: Seguiu-se o método de Guillemin et al. (1993) para a adaptação cultural do instrumento. Trata-se de estudo prospectivo em que 46 pacientes foram avaliados na fase de adaptação cultural e os itens que apresentaram 20% ou mais de incompreensão foram reformulados e reaplicados. A versão final do DGI em português foi aplicada em 35 idosos para examinar a confiabilidade intra e inter-observadores. O coeficiente de Spearman foi utilizado para correlacionar os escores inter e intra-observador e o teste de Wilcoxon para comparar as pontuações. A consistência interna foi analisada pelo coeficiente alfa de Cronbach. RESULTADOS: Houve correlações estatisticamente significantes entre os escores obtidos às avaliações inter e intra-observadores para todos os itens (p<0,001), classificadas como boa a muito forte (com de variação de r=0,655 a r=0,951). O DGI mostrou alta consistência interna entre seus itens nas avaliações inter e intra-observadores (variação de µ ou = 0,820 a a=0,894). CONCLUSÃO: O DGI foi adaptado culturalmente para o português brasileiro, mostrando-se um instrumento confiável.

Spatial variability in nutritional status of arabic coffee based on dris index

The combined use of precision agriculture and the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) allows the spatial monitoring of coffee nutrient balance to provide more balanced and cost-effective fertilizer recommendations. The objective of this work was to evaluate the spatial variability in the nutritional status of two coffee varieties using the Mean Nutritional Balance Index (NBIm) and its relationship with their respective yields. The experiment was conducted in eastern Minas Gerais in two areas, one planted with variety Catucaí and another with variety Catuaí. The NBIm of the two varieties and their yields were analyzed through geostatistics and, based on the models and parameters of the variograms, were interpolated to obtain their spatial distribution in the studied areas. Variety Catucai, with grater spatial variability, was more nutritional unbalanced than variety Catuai, and consequently produced lower yields. Excess of Fe and Mn makes these elements limiting yield factors.

Crescimento de crambe na presença ou ausência de competição interespecífica

RESUMOCrambe (Crambe abyssinica) has a cropping cycle of around 90 days, being suitable as an alternative to the second grain crop planted after soybean is harvested in the Center West region of Brazil. It is necessary to understand the growth and development dynamics of crambe plants in order to allow correct management of the production factors. This study aimed to describe the growth and development parameters of crambe plants under presence or absence of interspecific competition. The experiment was installed in the fall-winter 2011 in an Oxisoil, in completely randomized blocks design with three replications. Treatments comprised crambe plants growing either in presence or absence of interspecific simulated competition, throughout the cropping cycle. Plants were collected for the growth analysis every 15 days from harvest until 75 days after emergence. Growth parameters leaf area (AF), dry mass of stems/culms (MSC), leaves (MSF) and total (MST) dry mass, leaf area index (IAF), absolute (TCA) and relative (TCR) growth rates, net assimilation rate (TAL), specific leaf area (AFE), leaf area duration (DAF), leaf area ratio (RAF) and leaf mass ratio (RMF) were determined for the crop plants, subjected or not to competition, as well as for the simulated competitor. Crambe is a low competitive crop, being the competition more severe until 60-70 days after emergence. Besides, crop performance under field conditions was properly described by the net assimilation rate (TAL), which is also affected by the leaf area duration (DAF) and leaf mass ratio (RMF).

Effects of growth reducer and nitrogen fertilization on morphological variables, SPAD index, interception of radiation and productivity of wheat

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of growth reducer and nitrogen fertilization on morphological variables, SPAD index, radiation interception, and grain yield of three cultivars of wheat. The experimental design was a randomized block in factorial scheme 3x5x2, with three cultivars (Mestre, Iguaçú and Itaipú), five nitrogen doses (0, 40, 80, 120, 160 Kg ha-1), and application or no application of a growth reducer, with three replications. The following characteristics were evaluated: plant height, SPAD index, leaf area index (LAI), Global Radiation Interception (GRI) and grain yield. The Tukey test (p < 0.05) was used for the comparison between the means of cultivar and growth reducer factors, and for a regression analysis to evaluate N levels. Increasing the dose of nitrogen promotes an increase in LAI of plants of wheat crops differently among cultivars, which leads to a greater degree of global radiation interception. At doses higher or equal to 120 Kg ha-1 of nitrogen, there are significant differences in grain yield between treatments with and without the application of the growth reducer. The significant interaction between growth reducer and nitrogen dose, showed that applications of growth reducer increase the GRI at doses above and below 80 Kg ha-1 of nitrogen. Nitrogen rates of 138 and 109 Kg ha-1 are responsible for maximum grain yields of wheat, which is 4235 and 3787 Kg ha-1 with and without the use of growth reducer, respectively.

A duration e um modelo alternativo: um teste empírico

Estratégias de hedge para portfólios de renda fixa são comumente baseadas na duration. Esse conceito foi desenvolvido tendo como pressuposto que alterações nas taxas de juros serão constantes para toda a estrutura a termo da yield curve, ou seja, que os deslocamentos na yield curve serão paralelos. Este artigo pretende testar esse pressuposto para o mercado futuro de DI1 da BM&F, tendo como base o ano de 1996. Além disso, o artigo compara estratégias de hedge baseadas na duration com estratégias cujo balanceamento é dado por um modelo alternativo que incorpora os efeitos de deslocamentos não-paralelos na yield curve.

Duration of larval and pupal development stages of Aedes albopictus in natural and artificial containers

Aedes albopictus were reared in different containers: a tree hole, a bamboo stump and an auto tire. The total times from egg hatching to adult emergence were of 19.6,27.3 and 37.5 days, respectively, according to the container. The first, second and third-instar larvae presented growth periods with highly similar durations. The fourth-instar larvae was longer than the others stages. The pupation time was longer than the fourth-instar larvae growth period. The temperature of the breeding sites studied, which was of 18° C to 22° C on average, was also taken into consideration. The mortality of the immature stages was analysed and compared as between the experimental groups; it was lower in the natural containers than in the discarded tire. The average wing length of adult females emerging from tree hole was significantly larger (p < 0.05) than that of those emerging from the tire.

Valor preditivo do "Clinical Risk Index for Babies" para o risco de mortalidade neonatal

OBJETIVO: Comparar o valor preditivo do CRIB (Clinical Risk Index for Babies) para o risco de mortalidade neonatal ao peso de nascimento (PN) e idade gestacional (IG). MÉTODO: Numa coorte prospectiva foram estudados, durante o ano de 1996, 71 recém-nascidos admitidos na unidade de terapia intensiva, com PN < 1.500 g e/ou IG < 31 semanas. RESULTADOS: A taxa de mortalidade foi de 29,6%; para PN < 1.000 g ou IG < 29 semanas foi de 60%, enquanto que para o escore de CRIB > 10 foi de 100%. CONCLUSÕES: O escore de CRIB > 10 correspondeu a maiores especificidade e valor preditivo positivo em relação aos demais parâmetros. A área determinada pela "receiver operating characteristic" relativa ao CRIB também foi superior. O CRIB mostrou-se um marcador mais acurado na previsão de risco de mortalidade quando comparado ao PN ou IG isoladamente.

Comorbidity adjustment index for the international classification of diseases, 10

OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.

Body mass index for predicting hyperglycemia and serum lipid changes in Brazilian adolescents

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best cut-offs of body mass index for identifying alterations of blood lipids and glucose in adolescents. METHODS: A probabilistic sample including 577 adolescent students aged 12-19 years in 2003 (210 males and 367 females) from state public schools in the city of Niterói, Southeastern Brazil, was studied. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to identify the best age-adjusted BMI cut-off for predicting high levels of serum total cholesterol (>150mg/dL), LDL-C (>100mg/dL), serum triglycerides (>100mg/dL), plasma glucose (>100mg/dL) and low levels of HDL-C (< 45mg/dL). Four references were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity of BMI cut-offs: one Brazilian, one international and two American. RESULTS: The most prevalent metabolic alterations (>50%) were: high total cholesterol and low HDL-C. BMI predicted high levels of triglycerides in males, high LDL-C in females, and high total cholesterol and the occurrence of three or more metabolic alterations in both males and females (areas under the curve range: 0.59 to 0.67), with low sensitivity (57%-66%) and low specificity (58%-66%). The best BMI cut-offs for this sample (20.3 kg/m² to 21.0 kg/m²) were lower than those proposed in the references studied. CONCLUSIONS: Although BMI values lower than the International cut-offs were better predictor of some metabolic abnormalities in Brazilian adolescents, overall BMI is not a good predictor of these abnormalities in this population.

Estimate of DMFT index using teeth most affected by dental caries in twelve-year-old children

The objective of the study was to develop regression models to describe the epidemiological profile of dental caries in 12-year-old children in an area of low prevalence of caries. Two distinct random probabilistic samples of schoolchildren (n=1,763) attending public and private schools in Piracicaba, Southeastern Brazil, were studied. Regression models were estimated as a function of the most affected teeth using data collected in 2005 and were validated using a 2001 database. The mean (SD) DMFT index was 1.7 (2.08) in 2001 and the regression equations estimated a DMFT index of 1.67 (1.98), which corresponds to 98.2% of the DMFT index in 2001. The study provided detailed data on the caries profile in 12-year-old children by using an updated analytical approach. Regression models can be an accurate and feasible method that can provide valuable information for the planning and evaluation of oral health services.

Effects of irregular-shift work and physical activity on cardiovascular risk factors in truck drivers

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the putative effect of type of shift and its interaction with leisure-time physical activity on cardiovascular risk factors in truck drivers.METHODS: A cross-sectional study was undertaken on 57 male truck drivers working at a transportation company, of whom 31 worked irregular shifts and 26 worked on the day-shift. Participants recorded their physical activity using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire along with measurements of blood pressure, body mass index and waist-hip ratio. Participants also provided a fasting blood sample for analysis of lipid-related outcomes. Data were analyzed using a factorial model which was covariate-controlled for age, smoking, work demand, control at work and social support.RESULTS: Most of the irregular-shift and day-shift workers worked more than 8 hours per day (67.7% and 73.1%, respectively). The mean duration of experience working the irregular schedule was 15.7 years. Day-shift workers had never engaged in irregular-shift work and had been working as a truck driver for 10.8 years on average. The irregular-shift drivers had lower work demand but less control compared to day-shift drivers (p < 0.05). Moderately-active irregular-shift workers had higher systolic and diastolic arterial pressures (143.7 and 93.2 mmHg, respectively) than moderately-active day-shift workers (116 and 73.3 mmHg, respectively) (p < 0.05) as well as higher total cholesterol concentrations (232.1 and 145 mg/dl, respectively) (p = 0.01). Irrespective of their physical activity, irregular-shift drivers had higher total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol concentrations (211.8 and 135.7 mg/dl, respectively) than day-shift workers (161.9 and 96.7 mg/dl, respectively (ANCOVA, p < 0.05).CONCLUSIONS: Truck drivers are exposed to cardiovascular risk factors due to the characteristics of the job, such as high work demand, long working hours and time in this profession, regardless of shift type or leisure-time physical activity.

Evaluation of maternal and neonatal hospital care: quality index of completeness

OBJECTIVE Develop an index to evaluate the maternal and neonatal hospital care of the Brazilian Unified Health System.METHODS This descriptive cross-sectional study of national scope was based on the structure-process-outcome framework proposed by Donabedian and on comprehensive health care. Data from the Hospital Information System and the National Registry of Health Establishments were used. The maternal and neonatal network of Brazilian Unified Health System consisted of 3,400 hospitals that performed at least 12 deliveries in 2009 or whose number of deliveries represented 10.0% or more of the total admissions in 2009. Relevance and reliability were defined as criteria for the selection of variables. Simple and composite indicators and the index of completeness were constructed and evaluated, and the distribution of maternal and neonatal hospital care was assessed in different regions of the country.RESULTS A total of 40 variables were selected, from which 27 single indicators, five composite indicators, and the index of completeness of care were built. Composite indicators were constructed by grouping simple indicators and included the following variables: hospital size, level of complexity, delivery care practice, recommended hospital practice, and epidemiological practice. The index of completeness of care grouped the five variables and classified them in ascending order, thereby yielding five levels of completeness of maternal and neonatal hospital care: very low, low, intermediate, high, and very high. The hospital network was predominantly of small size and low complexity, with inadequate child delivery care and poor development of recommended and epidemiological practices. The index showed that more than 80.0% hospitals had a low index of completeness of care and that most qualified heath care services were concentrated in the more developed regions of the country.CONCLUSIONS The index of completeness proved to be of great value for monitoring the maternal and neonatal hospital care of Brazilian Unified Health System and indicated that the quality of health care was unsatisfactory. However, its application does not replace specific evaluations.