23 resultados para density model
em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP
Resumo:
INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is an infectious and parasitic zoonotic, non-contagious, vector-borne disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania. In Brazil, the major vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi (Cunha & Chagas, 1934) is Lutzomyia longipalpis. Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, was designated as a priority area by the Brazilian Ministry of Health for american visceral leishmaniasis, and it is important to identify the vector species present in this municipality. Our objective was to raise sandflies and study the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis. METHODS: We performed entomological monitoring in 3 districts using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps and recorded human cases of american visceral leishmaniasis in the city. We calculated the relative frequency and richness of sandflies and applied a transfer function model to the vector density correlate with relative humidity. RESULTS: The sandfly population was composed of 2 genera and 27 species, totaling 8,097 individuals. Monitoring identified Lutzomyia longipalpis (44%), followed by Lutzomyia lenti (18.9%), Lutzomyia whitmani (13.9%), Lutzomyia carmelinoi (9.1%), Lutzomyia evandroi (5.1%), Lutzomyia termitophila (3.3%), Lutzomyia sordellii (1.9%), and 20 other species (<4%). The male:female ratio was 3.5:1. We observed high species diversity (Dα = 6.65). Lutzomyia longipalpis showed occurrence peaks during the rainy season; there was a temporal correlation with humidity, but not with frequency or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis in the urban area of Barra do Garças underscores the changing disease profile, which was previously restricted to the wild environment.
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Bone is an androgen-dependent tissue, but it is not clear whether the androgen action in bone depends on testosterone or on dihydrotestosterone. Patients with 5alpha-reductase 2 deficiency present normal levels of testosterone and low levels of dihydrotestosterone, providing an in vivo human model for the analysis of the effect of testosterone on bone. OBJECTIVE: To analyze bone mineral density in 4 adult patients with male pseudohermaphroditism due to 5alpha-reductase 2 deficiency. RESULTS: Three patients presented normal bone mineral density of the lumbar column (L1-L4) and femur neck, and the other patient presented a slight osteopenia in the lumbar column. CONCLUSION: Patients with dihydrotestosterone deficiency present normal bone mineral density, suggesting that dihydrotestosterone is not the main androgen acting in bone.
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A multilocus mixed-mating model was used to evaluate the mating system of a population of Couratari multiflora, an emergent tree species found in low densities (1 individual/10 ha) in lowland forests of central Amazonia. We surveyed and observed phenologically 41 trees in an area of 400 ha. From these, only four mother trees were analyzed here because few of them set fruits, which also suffered high predation. No difference was observed between the population multilocus outcrossing rate (t mp = 0.953 ± 0.040) and the average single locus rate (t sp = 0.968 ± 0.132). The four mother trees were highly outcrossed (t m ~ 1). Two out of five loci showed departures from the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) expectations, and the same results occurred with the mixed-mating model. Besides the low number of trees analyzed, the proportion of loci in HWE suggests random mating in the population. However, the pollen pool was heterogeneous among families, probably due to both the small sample number and the flowering of trees at different times of the flowering season. Reproductive phenology of the population and the results presented here suggest, at least for part of the population, a long-distance pollen movement, around 1,000 m.
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Construction of hydroelectric dams in tropical regions has been contributing significantly to forest fragmentation. Alterations at edges of forest fragments impact plant communities that suffer increases in tree damage and dead, and decreases in seedling recruitment. This study aimed to test the core-area model in a fragmented landscape caused by construction of a hydroelectric power plant in the Brazilian Amazon. We studied variations in forest structure between the margin and interiors of 17 islands of 8-100 hectares in the Tucuruí dam reservoir, in two plots (30 and >100m from the margin) per island. Mean tree density, basal area, seedling density and forest cover did not significantly differ between marginal and interior island plots. Also, no significant differences were found in liana density, dead tree or damage for margin and interior plots. The peculiar topographic conditions associated with the matrix habitat and shapes of the island seem to extend edge effects to the islands' centers independently of the island size, giving the interior similar physical microclimatic conditions as at the edges. We propose a protocol for assessing the ecological impacts of edge effects in fragments of natural habitat surrounded by induced (artificial) edges. The protocol involves three steps: (1) identification of focal taxa of particular conservation or management interest, (2) measurement of an "edge function" that describes the response of these taxa to induced edges, and (3) use of a "Core-Area Model" to extrapolate edge function parameters to existing or novel situations.
Resumo:
In order to upgrade the reliability of xenodiagnosis, attention has been directed towards population dynamics of the parasite, with particular interest for the following factors: 1. Parasite density which by itself is not a research objective, but by giving an accurate portrayal of parasite development and multiplication, has been incorporated in screening of bugs for xenodiagnosis. 2. On the assumption that food availability might increase parasite density, bugs from xenodiagnosis have been refed at biweekly intervals on chicken blood. 3. Infectivity rates and positives harbouring large parasite yields were based on gut infections, in which the parasite population comprised of all developmental forms was more abundant and easier to detect than in fecal infections, thus minimizing the probability of recording false negatives. 4. Since parasite density, low in the first 15 days of infection, increases rapidly in the following 30 days, the interval of 45 days has been adopted for routine examination of bugs from xenodiagnosis. By following the enumerated measures, all aiming to reduce false negative cases, we are getting closer to a reliable xenodiagnostic procedure. Upgrading the efficacy of xenodiagnosis is also dependent on the xenodiagnostic agent. Of 9 investigated vector species, Panstrongylus megistus deserves top priority as a xenodiagnostic agent. Its extraordinary capability to support fast development and vigorous multiplication of the few parasites, ingested from the host with chronic Chagas' disease, has been revealed by the strikingly close infectivity rates of 91.2% vs. 96.4% among bugs engorged from the same host in the chronic and acute phase of the disease respectively (Table V), the latter comporting an estimated number of 12.3 x 10[raised to the power of 3] parasites in the circulation at the time of xenodiagnosis, as reported previously by the authors (1982).
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This paper compares the predation pressure that ducks and chickens exert on triatomines. For the tests, these birds were placed in individual boxes together with a known number of Triatoma infestans and left to interact from 6 p.m. till the next morning, involving a long lasting period of complete darkness limited by two short-term periods of semi-darkness. There was a shelter which could prevent the bugs from being predated. The number of live and dead triatomines was recorded, considering missing bugs as predated by the birds. Ducks exhibited a greater predatory activity than chickens, that could be due to a long term active period at night while chickens sleep motionless from sunset to dawn. Surviving triatomines that had fed on chickens outnumbered those fed on ducks suggesting that these were less accessible to the triatomine biting. If ducks are better than chickens to detect and eat bugs and to interfere with their feeding in the field, an increase in duck number might help to diminish triatomine density. Further research is needed to determine the feasibility of application of these experimental results.
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In the present paper, we evaluate the relationship between climate variables and population density of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Montes Claros, an area of active transmission of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Brazil. Entomological captures were performed in 10 selected districts of the city, between September 2002-August 2003. A total of 773 specimens of L. longipalpiswere captured in the period and the population density could be associated with local climate variables (cumulative rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity) through a mathematical linear model with a determination coefficient (Rsqr) of 0.752. Although based on an oversimplified statistical analysis, as far as the vector is concerned, this approach showed to be potentially useful as a starting point to guide control measures for AVL in Montes Claros.
Resumo:
Two hypotheses for how conditions for larval mosquitoes affect vectorial capacity make opposite predictions about the relationship of adult size and frequency of infection with vector-borne pathogens. Competition among larvae produces small adult females. The competition-susceptibility hypothesis postulates that small females are more susceptible to infection and predicts frequency of infection should decrease with size. The competition-longevity hypothesis postulates that small females have lower longevity and lower probability of becoming competent to transmit the pathogen and thus predicts frequency of infection should increase with size. We tested these hypotheses for Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. In the laboratory, longevity increases with size, then decreases at the largest sizes. For field-collected females, generalised linear mixed model comparisons showed that a model with a linear increase of frequency of dengue with size produced the best Akaike’s information criterion with a correction for small sample sizes (AICc). Consensus prediction of three competing models indicated that frequency of infection increases monotonically with female size, consistent with the competition-longevity hypothesis. Site frequency of infection was not significantly related to site mean size of females. Thus, our data indicate that uncrowded, low competition conditions for larvae produce the females that are most likely to be important vectors of dengue. More generally, ecological conditions, particularly crowding and intraspecific competition among larvae, are likely to affect vector-borne pathogen transmission in nature, in this case via effects on longevity of resulting adults. Heterogeneity among individual vectors in likelihood of infection is a generally important outcome of ecological conditions impacting vectors as larvae.
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The dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus, (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis has been related with the temperature, density and concentration of the insecticide. A mathematical model for biological control of Aedes aegypti with Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis (Bti) was constructed by using data from the literature regarding the biology of the vector. The life cycle was described by differential equations. Lethal concentrations (LC50 and LC95) of Bti were determined in the laboratory under different experimental conditions. Temperature, colony, larvae density and bioinsecticide concentration presented marked differences in the analysis of the whole set of variables; although when analyzed individually, only the temperature and concentration showed changes. The simulations indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito population, nonetheless, faster growth of populations is reached at higher temperatures. As conclusion, the model suggests the use of integrated control strategies for immature and adult mosquitoes in order to achieve a reduction of Aedes aegypti.
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Macroporosity is often used in the determination of soil compaction. Reduced macroporosity can lead to poor drainage, low root aeration and soil degradation. The aim of this study was to develop and test different models to estimate macro and microporosity efficiently, using multiple regression. Ten soils were selected within a large range of textures: sand (Sa) 0.07-0.84; silt 0.03-0.24; clay 0.13-0.78 kg kg-1 and subjected to three compaction levels (three bulk densities, BD). Two models with similar accuracy were selected, with a mean error of about 0.02 m³ m-3 (2 %). The model y = a + b.BD + c.Sa, named model 2, was selected for its simplicity to estimate Macro (Ma), Micro (Mi) or total porosity (TP): Ma = 0.693 - 0.465 BD + 0.212 Sa; Mi = 0.337 + 0.120 BD - 0.294 Sa; TP = 1.030 - 0.345 BD 0.082 Sa; porosity values were expressed in m³ m-3; BD in kg dm-3; and Sa in kg kg-1. The model was tested with 76 datum set of several other authors. An error of about 0.04 m³ m-3 (4 %) was observed. Simulations of variations in BD as a function of Sa are presented for Ma = 0 and Ma = 0.10 (10 %). The macroporosity equation was remodeled to obtain other compaction indexes: a) to simulate maximum bulk density (MBD) as a function of Sa (Equation 11), in agreement with literature data; b) to simulate relative bulk density (RBD) as a function of BD and Sa (Equation 13); c) another model to simulate RBD as a function of Ma and Sa (Equation 16), confirming the independence of this variable in relation to Sa for a fixed value of macroporosity and, also, proving the hypothesis of Hakansson & Lipiec that RBD = 0.87 corresponds approximately to 10 % macroporosity (Ma = 0.10 m³ m-3).
Resumo:
Under field conditions in the Amazon forest, soil bulk density is difficult to measure. Rigorous methodological criteria must be applied to obtain reliable inventories of C stocks and soil nutrients, making this process expensive and sometimes unfeasible. This study aimed to generate models to estimate soil bulk density based on parameters that can be easily and reliably measured in the field and that are available in many soil-related inventories. Stepwise regression models to predict bulk density were developed using data on soil C content, clay content and pH in water from 140 permanent plots in terra firme (upland) forests near Manaus, Amazonas State, Brazil. The model results were interpreted according to the coefficient of determination (R2) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) and were validated with a dataset consisting of 125 plots different from those used to generate the models. The model with best performance in estimating soil bulk density under the conditions of this study included clay content and pH in water as independent variables and had R2 = 0.73 and AIC = -250.29. The performance of this model for predicting soil density was compared with that of models from the literature. The results showed that the locally calibrated equation was the most accurate for estimating soil bulk density for upland forests in the Manaus region.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate sampling density on the prediction accuracy of soil orders, with high spatial resolution, in a viticultural zone of Serra Gaúcha, Southern Brazil. A digital elevation model (DEM), a cartographic base, a conventional soil map, and the Idrisi software were used. Seven predictor variables were calculated and read along with soil classes in randomly distributed points, with sampling densities of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, and 4 points per hectare. Data were used to train a decision tree (Gini) and three artificial neural networks: adaptive resonance theory, fuzzy ARTMap; self‑organizing map, SOM; and multi‑layer perceptron, MLP. Estimated maps were compared with the conventional soil map to calculate omission and commission errors, overall accuracy, and quantity and allocation disagreement. The decision tree was less sensitive to sampling density and had the highest accuracy and consistence. The SOM was the less sensitive and most consistent network. The MLP had a critical minimum and showed high inconsistency, whereas fuzzy ARTMap was more sensitive and less accurate. Results indicate that sampling densities used in conventional soil surveys can serve as a reference to predict soil orders in Serra Gaúcha.
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The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae) throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months) has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.
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Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a disease of increasing concern in the production of wheat (Triticum aestivum). This work studied some of the factors affecting the density of airborne Gibberella zeae inoculum. Spore samplers were placed at the edge of a field in order to observe spore deposition over a period of 45 days and nights in September and October, the period that coincides with wheat flowering. Gibberella zeae colonies were counted for each period and values transformed to relative density. A stepwise regression procedure was used to identify weather variables helpful in predicting spore cloud density. In general, a predominant night-time spore deposition was observed. Precipitation and daily mean relative humidity over 90% were the factors most hightly associated with peak events of spores in the air. Models for predicting spore cloud density simulated reasonably well with the fluctuation of airborne propagules during both night and day, with potential to be integrated into an FHB risk model framework.
Resumo:
Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is a disease of great concern in wheat (Triticum aestivum). Due to its relatively narrow susceptible phase and environmental dependence, the pathosystem is suitable for modeling. In the present work, a mechanistic model for estimating an infection index of FHB was developed. The model is process-based driven by rates, rules and coefficients for estimating the dynamics of flowering, airborne inoculum density and infection frequency. The latter is a function of temperature during an infection event (IE), which is defined based on a combination of daily records of precipitation and mean relative humidity. The daily infection index is the product of the daily proportion of susceptible tissue available, infection frequency and spore cloud density. The model was evaluated with an independent dataset of epidemics recorded in experimental plots (five years and three planting dates) at Passo Fundo, Brazil. Four models that use different factors were tested, and results showed all were able to explain variation for disease incidence and severity. A model that uses a correction factor for extending host susceptibility and daily spore cloud density to account for post-flowering infections was the most accurate explaining 93% of the variation in disease severity and 69% of disease incidence according to regression analysis.