Runoff measurement and prediction for a watershed under natural vegetation in central Brazil

This work aimed to measure and analyze total rainfall (P), rainfall intensity and five-day antecedent rainfall effects on runoff (R); to compare measured and simulated R values using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (CN) for each rainfall event; and to establish average R/P ratios for observed R values. A one-year (07/01/96 to 06/30/97) rainfall-runoff data study was carried out in the Capetinga watershed (962.4 ha), located at the Federal District of Brazil, 47° 52' longitude West and 15° 52' latitude South. Soils of the watershed were predominantly covered by natural vegetation. Total rainfall and runoff for the period were 1,744 and 52.5 mm, respectively, providing R/P of 3% and suggesting that watershed physical characteristics favored water infiltration into the soil. A multivariate regression analysis for 31 main rainfall-runoff events totaling 781.9 and 51.0 mm, respectively, indicated that the amount of runoff was only dependent upon rainfall volume. Simulated values of total runoff were underestimated about 15% when using CN method and an area-weighted average of the CN based on published values. On the other hand, when average values of CN were calculated for the watershed, total runoff was overestimated about 39%, suggesting that CN method shoud be used with care in areas under natural vegetation.

Georeferenced database generation with the purpose of hydrologic molding in reservoirs of the hydrographic basin of Jaguaribe river in the state of Ceará, Brazil

The edafoclimatic conditions of the Brazilian semiarid region favor the water loss by surface runoff. The state of Ceará, almost completely covered by semiarid, has developed public policies for the construction of dams in order to attend the varied water demand. Several hydrological models were developed to support decisive processes in the complex management of reservoirs. This study aimed to establish a methodology for obtaining a georeferenced database suitable for use as input data in hydrological modeling in the semiarid of Ceará. It was used images of Landsat satellite and SRTM Mission, and soil maps of the state of Ceará. The Landsat images allowed the determination of the land cover and the SRTM Mission images, the automatic delineation of hydrographic basins. The soil type was obtained through the soil map. The database was obtained for Jaguaribe River hydrographic basin, in the state of Ceará, and is applicable to hydrological modeling based on the Curve Number method for estimating the surface runoff.

Can varying the number of teams in a shift schedule constitute a preventive strategy?

OBJECTIVE: The study examines the implications for shiftworkers of applying different numbers of teams in the organization of shiftwork. METHODS: The participating operators came from five different companies applying continuous shift rotation systems. The companies shared the same product organization and a common corporate culture belonging to the same multinational company. Each company had a shift system consisting of four, five or six teams, with the proportion of shifts outside day work decreasing as the number of teams increased. Questionnaire and documentary data were used as data sources. RESULTS: Operators in systems with additional teams had more daywork but also more irregular working hours due to both overtime and schedule changes. Operators using six teams used fewer social compensation strategies. Operators in four teams were most satisfied with their work hours. Satisfaction with the time available for various social activities outside work varied inconsistently between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: In rotating systems the application of more teams reduces the number of shifts outside day work. This apparent improvement for shiftworkers was counteracted by a concomitant irregularity produced by greater organizational requirements for flexibility. The balance of this interaction was found to have a critical impact on employees.

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.

Symphysis-fundal height curve in the diagnosis of fetal growth deviations

OBJECTIVE: To validate a new symphysis-fundal curve for screening fetal growth deviations and to compare its performance with the standard curve adopted by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: Observational study including a total of 753 low-risk pregnant women with gestational age above 27 weeks between March to October 2006 in the city of João Pessoa, Northeastern Brazil. Symphisys-fundal was measured using a standard technique recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Estimated fetal weight assessed through ultrasound using the Brazilian fetal weight chart for gestational age was the gold standard. A subsample of 122 women with neonatal weight measurements was taken up to seven days after estimated fetal weight measurements and symphisys-fundal classification was compared with Lubchenco growth reference curve as gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The McNemar χ2 test was used for comparing sensitivity of both symphisys-fundal curves studied. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the new curve for detecting small for gestational age fetuses was 51.6% while that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health reference curve was significantly lower (12.5%). In the subsample using neonatal weight as gold standard, the sensitivity of the new reference curve was 85.7% while that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health was 42.9% for detecting small for gestational age. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic performance of the new curve for detecting small for gestational age fetuses was significantly higher than that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health reference curve.

Hospitalization rates for pneumococcal disease in Brazil, 2004 - 2006

OBJECTIVE: To estimate hospitalization rates for pneumococcal disease based on the Brazilian Hospital Information System (SIH). METHODS: Descriptive study based on the Hospital Information System of Brazilian National Health System data from January 2004 to December 2006: number of hospitalizations and deaths for pneumococcal meningitis, pneumococcal sepsis, pneumococcal pneumonia and Streptococcus pneumoniae as the cause of diseases reported in Brazil. Data from the 2003 Brazilian National Household Survey were used to estimate events in the private sector. Pneumococcal meningitis cases and deaths reported to the Notifiable Diseases Information System during the study period were also analyzed. RESULTS: Pneumococcal disease accounted for 34,217 hospitalizations in the Brazilian National Health System (0.1% of all hospitalizations in the public sector). Pneumococcal pneumonia accounted for 64.8% of these hospitalizations. The age distribution of the estimated hospitalization rates for pneumococcal disease showed a "U"-shape curve with the highest rates seen in children under one (110 to 136.9 per 100,000 children annually). The highest hospital case-fatality rates were seen among the elderly, and for sepsis and meningitis. CONCLUSIONS: PD is a major public health problem in Brazil. The analysis based on the SIH can provide an important input to pneumococcal disease surveillance and the impact assessment of immunization programs.

A clinical epidemiologic study in a schistosomiasis mansoni endemic area (Tuparecê, Minas Gerais)

A population-based clinical epidemiologic study on schistosomiasis mansoni was carried out in Tuparecê, Minas Gerais. The patients were interviewed for symptoms, water contact, past history and examined for spleen and liver enlargement. From the 830 people registered in the census, 777 (93.6%) had their stools examined (Kato-Katz method) and 696 (83.9%) were clinically evaluated. The overall index of Schistosoma mansoni infection was 43.2%. Significant and increased infection risks could be detected in the young age group (2-14 years old) regarding occupation, time of residence in the area and frequency of water contact. Bloody stools were significantly more prevalent among positives, while diarrhea was significantly more prevalent among those negative. The area was shown to have a low morbidity as well as a low intensity of infection measured by the number of S. mansoni eggs per gram of feces. A close correlation was found between water contact pattern and the age prevalence curve. It has emphasized the importance of habits in determining prevalence rates, besides suggesting that schistosomiasis mansoni in the area is manifested as a light and somewhat harmless infection with little consequence for the population as a whole.

Evaluation of the allergenicity of spore and mycelia extracts of Pisolithus tinctorius

The antigenic and allergenic chemical analysis of spore and mycelia extracts of Pisolithus tinctorius was carried out. The spores were collected from basidiocarps in plantations of Eucalyptus spp and the mycelia from culture in MNM medium. With basis on the fungus growth curve, the mycelia masses were obtained after 10, 20, 30, and 40 days of incubation, which correspond, respectively, to the beginning, middle and end of the log phase, and beginning of the decline phase. The mycelia masses, together with the spores, were submitted to the action of three extractors (Coca, Tris-HCl, and ammonium bicarbonate). The contents of carbohydrates and proteins were determined. The SDS-PAGE electrophoretical analysis revealed separate fractions in these extracts, besides common fractions, in function of cultivation time and extraction methods. The selected extracts for the allergic tests were the ones with the highest number of fractions. The prick-tests were conducted in 374 patients – rural workers, eucalyptus plantation works and college students. The positivity to the "prick test" with the antigenic extract of P. tinctorius was, respectively, 3.78%, 28.20% and 6.40%. Most prick-test positive patients (82.75%) also presented symptoms of respiratory allergy (asthma and rhinitis). There was no reactivity difference when the spore and mycelia extracts were employed. The analysis of the positive patients’ sera revealed the presence of IgE specific to the P. tinctorius antigens. Since Pisolithus tinctorius is found as mycorrhyza of Eucalyptus spp, and this plant is used in reforestation in most countries, the importance of that fungus should be regarded as a possible cause of respiratory allergies, especially in occupationally exposed workers

Decay of antibody isotypes against early developmental stages of Schistosoma mansoni after treatment of schistosomiasis patients

Antibodies to a number of parasite antigens are found in schistosomiasis patients, and antibodies to early developmental stages were demonstrated to be efficient immunologic markers for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis. In the present study, decay patterns of IgM and IgG antibodies against cercariae and schistosomula were investigated, in comparison to antibodies against worms and eggs in schistosomiasis patients after chemotherapy, for an investigation of seroepidemiologic aspects. Data obtained in the study of 359 serum samples from patients with Schistosoma mansoni infection, noninfected individuals, and patients followed-up for a period of 12 to 15 months after treatment provided the basis to postulate a general pattern for the kinetics of antibody decay. Before treatment, the antibody pattern was represented by a unimodal curve, which shifted to a bimodal curve after treatment, and ended with a unimodal curve similar to that for the noninfected group. Different types of antibodies were classified into four categories according to their decay features, and anti-schistosomulum IgM was classified into the moderate-decay caterogy, whereas other antibodies to early parasite stages were classified into the slow-decay category. The present methodology permits the identification of the most suitable antibodies to be detected in field control programs for schistosomiasis or other parasitoses

FALSE-NEGATIVE DENGUE CASES IN RORAIMA, BRAZIL: AN APPROACH REGARDING THE HIGH NUMBER OF NEGATIVE RESULTS BY NS1 AG KITS

Serum samples from 150 NS1-negative (Platelia ELISA) patients presumptively diagnosed with dengue were analyzed by the TaqMan probed real-time reverse transcription PCR (TaqMan qRT-PCR) method. The qRT-PCR positive samples were tested for serotype by semi-nested RT-PCR and a qualitative immunochromatographic assay for IgG and IgM. Molecular detection methods showed 33 (22%) positive samples out of 150 NS1-antigen negative samples. Of these, 72% were collected up to day 2 after the onset of symptoms, when diagnostic sensitivity of NS1-antigen test assays is significantly enhanced. Most of the cases were not characterized as secondary infection. Twenty-eight samples were successfully serotyped, 75% of which for DENV-4, 14% for DENV-2, 7% for DENV-3 and 4% for DENV-1. These findings reaffirm the hyperendemic situation of the state of Roraima and suggest a lower sensitivity of the NS1 test, mainly when DENV-4 is the predominant serotype. Health care providers should therefore be aware of samples tested negative by NS1 antigen assays, especially when clinical symptoms and other laboratory data results show evidence of dengue infection.

Evaluation of platelet number and function and fibrinogen level in patients bitten by snakes of the Bothrops genus

Platelet function and plasma fibrinogen levels were evaluated in 14 patients, 10 males and 4females, aged 13-59years bitten by Bothrops genus snakes. There was a statistical difference (p < 0.05) among plasma fibrinogen levels evaluated 24 and 48 hours after envenomation. There was a tendency towards normalization after 48 hours of treatment. The low platelet number was clear in 24-48 hour evaluations with a tendency towards normalization after 48 hours of treatment (p<0.05). Fibrinogen levels and fibrin degradation product (FDP) levels appeared to be altered in 83.33% of patients evaluated. The authors suggest that platelet hypoaggregation is related to decreased fibrinogen and increased FDP levels.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Current epidemiological profile of Chagasic megaesophagus in Central Brazil

Introduction Chagasic megaesophagus (CM) is the most common digestive manifestation of Chagas disease in Brazil, and the State of Goiás is one of the most affected regions. In recent decades, the Hospital das Clínicas (HC)/Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG) has been a reference center for the study and treatment of CM. The objective of this study was to characterize the current epidemiological profile of patients with CM observed at the HC of the UFG from 1998 to 2010. Methods In total, 939 patient records were analyzed, and age, gender, place of birth, serology, symptoms and radiological classification according to Rezende et al. were analyzed. Results The median patient age was 55 years. Male patients were more (54%) prevalent than female patients. The prevalence of younger patients (less than 31 years of age) was 4.2%, but 82.1% of the younger patients were from State of Bahia. Patients older than 40 years were the majority (85.5%). The radiological groups were distributed as follows: Group I (35.9%), Group II (32.9%), Group III (17%) and Group IV (14.2%). Conclusions Compared with previous studies by the same group in 1975, 1994 and 1995, the number of younger patients decreased, and the frequency curve has shifted to older patients.

Evaluation of two sweeping methods for estimating the number of immature Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in large containers

Introduction Here, we evaluated sweeping methods used to estimate the number of immature Aedes aegypti in large containers. Methods III/IV instars and pupae at a 9:1 ratio were placed in three types of containers with, each one with three different water levels. Two sweeping methods were tested: water-surface sweeping and five-sweep netting. The data were analyzed using linear regression. Results The five-sweep netting technique was more suitable for drums and water-tanks, while the water-surface sweeping method provided the best results for swimming pools. Conclusions Both sweeping methods are useful tools in epidemiological surveillance programs for the control of Aedes aegypti.

The changing distribution of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon, 2003-2004 and 2008-2009

Introduction More than half of the malaria cases reported in the Americas are from the Brazilian Amazon region. While malaria is considered endemic in this region, its geographical distribution is extremely heterogeneous. Therefore, it is important to investigate the distribution of malaria and to determine regions whereby action might be necessary. Methods Changes in malaria indicators in all municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon between 2003-2004 and 2008-2009 were studied. The malaria indicators included the absolute number of malaria cases and deaths, the bi-annual parasite incidence (BPI), BPI ratios and differences, a Lorenz curve and Gini coefficients. Results During the study period, mortality from malaria remained low (0.02% deaths/case), the percent of municipalities that became malaria-free increased from 15.6% to 31.7%, and the Gini coefficient increased from 82% to 87%. In 2003, 10% of the municipalities with the highest BPI accumulated 67% of all malaria cases, compared with 2009, when 10% of the municipalities (with the highest BPI) had 80% of the malaria cases. Conclusions This study described an overall decrease in malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon region. As expected, an increased heterogeneity of malaria indicators was found, which reinforces the notion that a single strategy may not bring about uniformly good outcomes. The geographic clustering of municipalities identified as problem areas might help to define better intervention methods.