Simulating maize yield in sub‑tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model

The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of simulating maize yield in a sub‑tropical region of southern Brazil using the general large area model (Glam). A 16‑year time series of daily weather data were used. The model was adjusted and tested as an alternative for simulating maize yield at small and large spatial scales. Simulated and observed grain yields were highly correlated (r above 0.8; p<0.01) at large scales (greater than 100,000 km²), with variable and mostly lower correlations (r from 0.65 to 0.87; p<0.1) at small spatial scales (lower than 10,000 km²). Large area models can contribute to monitoring or forecasting regional patterns of variability in maize production in the region, providing a basis for agricultural decision making, and Glam‑Maize is one of the alternatives.

Fuzzy logic applied to the modeling of water dynamics in an Oxisol in northeastern Brazil

Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

NUTRIENT RECOMMENDATION MODEL FOR CARROT CROP – FERTICALC CARROT

ABSTRACT The literature on fertilization for carrot growing usually recommends nutrient application rates for yield expectations lower than the yields currently obtained. Moreover, the recommendation only considers the results of soil chemical analysis and does not include effects such as crop residues or variations in yield levels. The aim of this study was to propose a fertilizer recommendation system for carrot cultivation (FERTICALC Carrot) which includes consideration of the nutrient supply by crop residues, variation in intended yield, soil chemical properties, and the growing season (winter or summer). To obtain the data necessary for modeling nutritional requirements, 210 carrot production stands were sampled in the region of Alto Paranaíba, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The dry matter content of the roots, the coefficient of biological utilization of nutrients in the roots, and the nutrient harvest index for summer and winter crops were determined for these samples. To model the nutrient supply by the soil, the literature was surveyed in regard to this theme. A modeling system was developed for recommendation of macronutrients and B. For cationic micronutrients, the system only reports crop nutrient export and extraction. The FERTICALC which was developed proved to be efficient for fertilizer recommendation for carrot cultivation. Advantages in relation to official fertilizer recommendation tables are continuous variation of nutrient application rates in accordance with soil properties and in accordance with data regarding the extraction efficiency of modern, higher yielding cultivars.

Sugarcane crop efficiency in two growing seasons in São Paulo State, Brazil

A conceptual framework for crop production efficiency was derived using thermodynamic efficiency concept, in order to generate a tool for performance evaluation of agricultural systems and to quantify the interference of determining factors on this performance. In Thermodynamics, efficiency is the ratio between the output and input of energy. To establish this relationship in agricultural systems, it was assumed that the input energy is represented by the attainable crop yield, as predicted through simulation models based on environmental variables. The method of FAO's agroecological zones was applied to the assessment of the attainable sugarcane yield, while Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) data were used as observed yield. Sugarcane efficiency production in São Paulo state was evaluated in two growing seasons, and its correlation with some physical factors that regulate production was calculated. A strong relationship was identified between crop production efficiency and soil aptitude. This allowed inferring the effect of agribusiness factors on crop production efficiency. The relationships between production efficiency and climatic variables were also quantified and indicated that solar radiation, annual rainfall, water deficiency, and maximum air temperature are the main factors affecting the sugarcane production efficiency.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Bimodal pore distribution on soils under conservation management system for coffee crop

This study aims at detailing bimodal pore distribution by means of water retention curve in an oxidic-gibbsitic Latosol and in a kaolinitic cambisol Latossol under conservation management system of coffee crop. Samples were collected at depths of 20; 40; 80; 120 and 160 cm on coffee trees rows and between rows under oxidic-gibbsitic Latosol (LVd) and kaolinitic cambisol Latossol (LVAd). Water retention curve was determined at matrix potentials (Ψm) -1; -2; -4; -6; -10 kPa obtained from the suction unit; the Ψm of -33; -100; -500; -1,500 kPa were obtained by the Richards extractor, and WP4-T psychrometer was used to determine Ψm -1,500 to -300,000 kPa. The water retention data were adjusted to the double van Genuchten model by nonlinear model procedures of the R 2.12.1 software. Was estimated the model parameter and inflection point slope. The system promoted changes in soil structure and water retention for the conditions evaluated, and both showed bimodal pores distribution, which were stronger in LVd. There was a strong influence of mineralogy gibbsitic in the water retention more negative than Ψm -1500 kPa, reflected in the values of the residual water content.

Modeling of weeds interference periods in bean

The research objective was to determine the effects of spacing and seeding density of common bean to the period prior to weed interference (PPI) and weed period prior to economic loss (WEEPPEL). The treatments consisted of periods of coexistence between culture and the weeds, with 0 to 10, 0 to 20, 0 to 30, 0 to 40, 0 to 50, 0 to 60, 0 to 70, and 0 to 80 days and a control maintained without weeds. In addition to the periods of coexistence, there were still studies with an inter-row of 0.45 and 0.60 m, 10 and 15 plants m-1. The experimental delineation used was randomized blocks with four repetitions per treatment. The grain productivity of the culture had a reduction of 63, 50, 42 and 57% when the coexistence with the weed plants was during the entire cycle of the culture for a row spacing of 0.45 m and a seeding density of 10 and 15 plants per meter; and a row spacing of 0.60m and a seeding density of 10 and 15 plants per meter, respectively. The PPI occurred in 23, 27, 13, and 19 days after crop emergence and WEEPPEL in 10, 9, 8, and 8 days, respectively.

Soil profile internal drainage for a central pivot fertigated coffee crop

Coffee cultivation via central-pivot fertigation can lead to fertilizer losses by soil profile internal drainage when water application is excessive and soils have low water retention and cation adsorption capacities. This study analyses the deep water losses from the top 1 m sandy soil layer of east Bahia, Brazil, cultivated with coffee at a high technology level (central-pivot fertigation), using above normal N fertilizer rates. The deep drainage (Q) estimation is made through the application of a climatologic water balance (CWB) program having as input direct measures of irrigation and rainfall, climatological data from weather stations, and measured soil water retention characteristics. The aim of the study is to contribute to the understanding of the hydric regime of coffee crops managed by central-pivot irrigation, analyzing three scenarios (Sc): i) rainfall only, ii) rainfall and irrigation full year, and iii) rainfall and irrigation dry season only. Annual Q values for the 2008/2009 agricultural year were: Sc i = 811.5 mm; Sc ii = 1010.5 mm; and Sc iii = 873.1 mm, so that the irrigation interruption in the wet season reduced Q by 15.7%, without the appearance of water deficit periods. Results show that the use of the CWB program is a convenient tool for the evaluation of Q under the cited conditions.

Nitrogen fertilizer (15N) leaching in a central pivot fertigated coffee crop

Nitrogen has a complex dynamics in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. N fertilizers are subject to chemical and microbial transformations in soils that can result in significant losses. Considering the cost of fertilizers, the adoption of good management practices like fertigation could improve the N use efficiency by crops. Water balances (WB) were applied to evaluate fertilizer N leaching using 15N labeled urea in west Bahia, Brazil. Three scenarios (2008/2009) were established: i) rainfall + irrigation the full year, ii) rainfall only; and iii) rainfall + irrigation only in the dry season. The water excess was considered equal to the deep drainage for the very flat area (runoff = 0) with a water table located several meters below soil surface (capillary rise = 0). The control volume for water balance calculations was the 0 - 1 m soil layer, considering that it involves the active root system. The water drained below 1 m was used to estimate fertilizer N leaching losses. WB calculations used the mathematic model of Penman-Monteith for evapotranspiration, considering the crop coefficient equal to unity. The high N application rate associated to the high rainfall plus irrigation was found to be the main cause for leaching, which values were 14.7 and 104.5 kg ha-1 for the rates 400 and 800 kg ha-1 of N, corresponding to 3.7 and 13.1 % of the applied fertilizer, respectively.

Maize nitrogen fertilization in two crop rotation systems under no-till

The objective of this study was to evaluate split nitrogen (N) fertilization of maize applied in band at sowing and top dressing with and without crop rotation, under no-till. The experiment was conducted with six N rates at sowing (0, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 kg ha-1) combined with three rates in top dressing (40, 70, 100 kg ha-1) and two management systems: after five cropping sequences of maize and crop rotation (maize + soybean + oat + soybean + corn) in a randomized block design with four replications. The crop rotation system increased yield in approximately 7% in relation to the area without rotation. The split of nitrogen fertilization, in rates above 39 and 54 kg ha-1 at sowing and 70 and 40 kg ha-1 in top dressing, resulted in yield higher than that obtained with the application of 100 kg ha-1 in top dressing. Grain yield was higher with the rates 50 and 70 kg ha-1 of N compared with that obtained with 20 and 100 kg ha-1 at sowing and top dressing, respectively. The rate 70 kg ha-1 of N resulted in the highest yield at the lowest cost compared with the revenues and costs incurred with the rates 40 and 100 kg ha-1.

Urease inhibitor (NBPT) and efficiency of single or split application of urea in wheat crop

NBPT (N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide), a urease inhibitor, has been reported as one of the most promising compounds to maximize urea nitrogen use in agricultural systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of irrigated wheat fertilized with urea or urea + NBPT as single or split application. The experiment was conducted from June to October 2006 in Viçosa, MG, Brazil. The experimental design followed a 2×2 factorial scheme, in which urea or urea + NBPT were combined with two modes of application: full dose at sowing (60kg ha-1) or split (20kg ha-1 at sowing + 40kg ha-1 as topdressing at tillering), in randomized blocks with ten replications. The split application of nitrogen fertilization does not improve the yield wheat under used conditions. The use of urease inhibitor improves the grain yield of wheat crop when urea is applied in topdressing at tillering, but its use does not promote difference when urea is applied in the furrow at planting.

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Fertilization and cover crop effects on soil nitrogen and plant nutrition in a young guarana plantation

Fruit tree production is gaining an increasing importance in the central Amazon and elsewhere in the humid tropics, but very little is known about the nutrient dynamics in the soil-plant system. The present study quantified the effects of fertilization and cover cropping with a legume (Pueraria phaseoloides (Roxb.) Benth.) on soil nitrogen (N) dynamics and plant nutrition in a young guarana plantation (Paullinia cupana Kunth. (H.B. and K.) var. sorbilis (Mart.) Ducke) on a highly weathered Xanthic Ferralsol. Large subsoil nitrate (NO3-) accumulation at 0.3-3 m below the guarana plantation indicated N leaching from the topsoil. The NO3- contents to a depth of 2 m were 2.4 times greater between the trees than underneath unfertilized trees (P<0.05). The legume cover crop between the trees increased soil N availability as shown by elevated aerobic N mineralization and lower N immobilization in microbial biomass. The guarana N nutrition and yield did not benefit from the N input by biological fixation of atmospheric N2 by the legume cover (P>0.05). Even without a legume intercrop, large amounts of NO3- were found in the subsoil between unfertilized trees. Subsoil NO3- between the trees could be utilized, however, by fertilized guarana. This can be explained by a more vigorous growth of fertilized trees which had a larger nutrient demand and exploited a larger soil volume. With a legume cover crop, however, more mineral N was available at the topsoil which was leached into the subsoil and consequently accumulated at 0.3-3 m depth. Fertilizer additions of P and K were needed to increase subsoil NO3- use between trees.

Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.