Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

The generation and re-generation of social capital and enterprises in multi-stakeholders social cooperative enterprises: a system dynamic approach

Theories on social capital and on social entrepreneurship have mainly highlighted the attitude of social capital to generate enterprises and to foster good relations between third sector organizations and the public sector. This paper considers the social capital in a specific third sector enterprise; here, multi-stakeholder social cooperatives are seen, at the same time, as social capital results, creators and incubators. In the particular enterprises that identify themselves as community social enterprises, social capital, both as organizational and relational capital, is fundamental: SCEs arise from but also produce and disseminate social capital. This paper aims to improve the building of relational social capital and the refining of helpful relations drawn from other arenas, where they were created and from where they are sometimes transferred to other realities, where their role is carried on further (often working in non-profit, horizontally and vertically arranged groups, where they share resources and relations). To represent this perspective, we use a qualitative system dynamic approach in which social capital is measured using proxies. Cooperation of volunteers, customers, community leaders and third sector local organizations is fundamental to establish trust relations between public local authorities and cooperatives. These relations help the latter to maintain long-term contracts with local authorities as providers of social services and enable them to add innovation to their services, by developing experiences and management models and maintaining an interchange with civil servants regarding these matters. The long-term relations and the organizational relations linking SCEs and public organizations help to create and to renovate social capital. Thus, multi-stakeholder cooperatives originated via social capital developed in third sector organizations produce new social capital within the cooperatives themselves and between different cooperatives (entrepreneurial components of the third sector) and the public sector. In their entrepreneurial life, cooperatives have to contrast the "working drift," as a result of which only workers remain as members of the cooperative, while other stakeholders leave the organization. Those who are not workers in the cooperative are (stake)holders with "weak ties," who are nevertheless fundamental in making a worker's cooperative an authentic social multi-stakeholders cooperative. To maintain multi-stakeholder governance and the relations with third sector and civil society, social cooperatives have to reinforce participation and dialogue with civil society through ongoing efforts to include people that provide social proposals. We try to represent these processes in a system dynamic model applied to local cooperatives, measuring the social capital created by the social cooperative through proxies, such as number of volunteers and strong cooperation with public institutions. Using a reverse-engineering approach, we can individuate the determinants of the creation of social capital and thereby give support to governance that creates social capital.

Sooty blotch and flyspeck control with fungicide applications based on calendar, local IPM, and warning system

The objective of this work was to compare fungicide application timing for the control of sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) of 'Fuji' apples in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The following treatments were evaluated in two growing seasons: two warning system-based (modified version of the Brown-Sutton-Hartmann system) spray of captan plus thiophanate methyl, with or without summer pruning; two calendar/rain-based spray of captan or a mixture of captan plus thiophanate methyl; fungicide spray timing based on a local integrated pest management (IPM) for the control of summer diseases; and a check without spraying. Sooty blotch and flyspeck incidence over time and their severity at harvest were evaluated. The highest number of spray was required by calendar/rain-based treatments (eight and seven sprays in the sequential years). The warning system recommended five and three sprays, in the sequential years, which led to the highest SBFS control efficacy expressed by the reduced initial inoculum and disease progress rate. Summer pruning enhanced SBFS control efficacy, especially by suppressing SBFS signs which tended to be restrained to the peduncle region of the fruit. Sooty blotch and flyspeck can be managed both with calendar and the grower-based IPM practices in Brazil, but a reduced number of sprays is required when the warning system is used.

Development of a warning system for wheat blast caused by Pyricularia grisea

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) blast caused by Pyricularia grisea is a new disease in Brazil and no resistant cultivars are available. The interactions between temperature and wetness durations have been used in many early warning systems. Hence, growth chamber experiments to assess the effect of different temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35ºC) and the duration of spike-wetness (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 hours) on the intensity of blast in cultivar BR23 were carried out. Each temperature formed an experiment and the duration of wetness the treatments. The highest blast intensity was observed at 30°C and increased as the duration of the wetting period increased while the lowest occurred at 25°C and 10 hours of spike wetness. Regardless of the temperature, no symptoms occurred when the wetting period was less than 10 hours but at 25°C and a 40 h wetting period blast intensity exceeded 85%. These variations in blast intensity as a function of temperature are explained by a generalized beta model and as a function of the duration of spike wetness by the Gompertz model. Disease intensity was modeled as a function of both temperature and the durations of spike wetness and the resulting equation provided a precise description of the response of P. grisea to temperatures and the durations of spike wetness. This model was used to construct tables that can be used to predict the intensity of P. grisea wheat blast based on the temperatures and the durations of wheat spike wetness obtained in the field.

Application and validation of a warning system for grapevine downy mildew controlusing fungicides

Most warning systems for plant disease control are based on Vinho, in Bento Gonçalves - RS, during the growing seasons 2000/ weather models dependent on the relationships between leaf wetness 01, 2002/03 and 2003/2004, using the grape cultivar Isabel. The duration and mean air temperature in this period considering the conventional system used by local growers was compared with the target disease intensity. For the development of a warning system to new warning system by using different cumulative daily disease severity control grapevine downy mildew, the equation generated by Lalancette values (CDDSV) as the criterion to schedule fungicide application and et al. (7) was used. This equation was employed to elaborate a critical reapplication. In experiments conducted in 2003/04, CDDSV of 12 - period table and program a computerized device, which records, though 14 showed promising to schedule the first spraying and the interval electronic sensors, leaf wetness duration, mean temperature in this between fungicide applications, reducing by 37.5% the number of period and automatically calculates the daily value of probability of applications and maintaining the same control efficiency in leaves infection occurrence. The system was validated at Embrapa Uva e and bunches, similarly to the conventional system.

Warning system based on theoretical-experimental study of dispersion of soluble pollutants in rivers

Information about capacity of transport and dispersion of soluble pollutants in natural streams are important in the management of water resources, especially in planning preventive measures to minimize the problems caused by accidental or intentional waste, in public health and economic activities that depend on the use of water. Considering this importance, this study aimed to develop a warning system for rivers, based on experimental techniques using tracers and analytical equations of one-dimensional transport of soluble pollutants conservative, to subsidizing the decision-making in the management of water resources. The system was development in JAVA programming language and MySQL database can predict the travel time of pollutants clouds from a point of eviction and graphically displays the temporal distribution of concentrations of passage clouds, in a particular location, downstream from the point of its launch.

Weather based warning systems for bean angular-leaf-spot and anthracnose

Data available in the literature were used to develop a warning system for bean angular leaf spot and anthracnose, caused by Phaeoisariopsis griseola and Colletotrichum lindemuthianum, respectively. The model is based on favorable environmental conditions for the infectious process such as continuous leaf wetness duration and mean air temperature during this subphase of the pathogen-host relationship cycle. Equations published by DALLA PRIA (1977) showing the interactions of those two factors on the disease severity were used. Excell spreadsheet was used to calculate the leaf wetness period needed to cause different infection probabilities at different temperature ranges. These data were employed to elaborate critical period tables used to program a computerized electronic device that records leaf wetness duration and mean temperature and automatically shows the daily disease severity value (DDSV) for each disease. The model should be validated in field experiments under natural infection for which the daily disease severity sum (DDSS) should be identified as a criterion to indicate the beginning and the interval of fungicide applications to control both diseases.

Antimalarial Drug Resistance: Surveillance and Molecular Methods for National Malaria Control Programmes

National malaria control programmes have the responsibility to develop a policy for malaria disease management based on a set of defined criteria as efficacy, side effects, costs and compliance. These will fluctuate over time and national guidelines will require periodic re-assessment and revision. Changing a drug policy is a major undertaking that can take several years before being fully operational. The standard methods on which a decision can be taken are the in vivo and the in vitro tests. The latter allow a quantitative measurement of the drug response and the assessment of several drugs at once. However, in terms of drug policy change its results might be difficult to interpret although they may be used as an early warning system for 2nd or 3rd line drugs. The new WHO 14-days in vivo test addresses mainly the problem of treatment failure and of haematological parameters changes in sick children. It gives valuable information on whether a drug still `works'. None of these methods are well suited for large-scale studies. Molecular methods based on detection of mutations in parasite molecules targeted by antimalarial drugs could be attractive tools for surveillance. However, their relationship with in vivo test results needs to be established

A four-year surveillance program for detection of Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine resistance in Honduras

Countries could use the monitoring of drug resistance in malaria parasites as an effective early warning system to develop the timely response mechanisms that are required to avert the further spread of malaria. Drug resistance surveillance is essential in areas where no drug resistance has been reported, especially if neighbouring countries have previously reported resistance. Here, we present the results of a four-year surveillance program based on the sequencing of the pfcrt gene of Plasmodium falciparum populations from endemic areas of Honduras. All isolates were susceptible to chloroquine, as revealed by the pfcrt “CVMNK” genotype in codons 72-76.

Effect of temperature, wetness duration and cultivar on the development of anthracnose in guava fruits

The development of a large number of postharvest diseases is closely associated with fruit ripeness. Environmental conditions may affect both the pathogen development and the fruit ripening rate. The aim of this study was to determine the most favorable temperature and wetness duration to the development of anthracnose in guava fruits. Cultivars 'Kumagai' (white pulp) and 'Pedro Sato' (red pulp) were inoculated with a conidial suspension of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides and C. acutatum and incubated at constant temperature ranging from 10 to 35ºC and wetness duration of 6 and 24 hours. Disease severity and incidence were evaluated at every two days during 12 days. No infection occurred at 10 and 35ºC, regardless of the wetness duration. The optimum conditions for fruit infection were 26 and 27ºC for 'Kumagai' and 25 and 26ºC for 'Pedro Sato', adopting 24 hours of wetness. In general, the disease development in 'Kumagai' cultivar was more affected by the wetness period, compared to 'Pedro Sato'. Disease severity for 'Kumagai' fruits was maximal between 25 and 30ºC , depending on the Colletotrichum species. Regarding 'Pedro Sato', the mean diameter of lesions was greater in fruits stored at 20, 25 and 30ºC , compared to 'Kumagai' cultivar, depending on the wetness period and the species. The incubation period (between 6 and 7 days) and the latent period (between 8 and 10 days) were minimal at 30ºC. The data generated in this study will be useful either for the development of a disease warning system or for the increase in the shelf life of guavas in the postharvest.

Identification of Races of Selected Isolates of Uromyces appendiculatus from Minas Gerais (Brazil) Based on the new international classification system

Twelve single-pustule isolates of Uromyces appendiculatus, the etiological agent of common bean rust, were collected in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, and classified according to the new international differential series and the binary nomenclature system proposed during the 3rd Bean Rust Workshop. These isolates have been used to select rust-resistant genotypes in a bean breeding program conducted by our group. The twelve isolates were classified into seven different physiological races: 21-3, 29-3, 53-3, 53-19, 61-3, 63-3 and 63-19. Races 61-3 and 63-3 were the most frequent in the area. They were represented by five and two isolates, respectively. The other races were represented by just one isolate. This is the first time the new international classification procedure has been used for U. appendiculatus physiological races in Brazil. The general adoption of this system will facilitate information exchange, allowing the cooperative use of the results obtained by different research groups throughout the world. The differential cultivars Mexico 309, Mexico 235 and PI 181996 showed resistance to all of the isolates that were characterized. It is suggested that these cultivars should be preferentially used as sources for resistance to rust in breeding programs targeting development lines adapted to the state of Minas Gerais.

Signaled two-way avoidance learning using electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus as negative reinforcement: effects of visual and auditory cues as warning stimuli

The inferior colliculus is a primary relay for the processing of auditory information in the brainstem. The inferior colliculus is also part of the so-called brain aversion system as animals learn to switch off the electrical stimulation of this structure. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether associative learning occurs between aversion induced by electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus and visual and auditory warning stimuli. Rats implanted with electrodes into the central nucleus of the inferior colliculus were placed inside an open-field and thresholds for the escape response to electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus were determined. The rats were then placed inside a shuttle-box and submitted to a two-way avoidance paradigm. Electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus at the escape threshold (98.12 ± 6.15 (A, peak-to-peak) was used as negative reinforcement and light or tone as the warning stimulus. Each session consisted of 50 trials and was divided into two segments of 25 trials in order to determine the learning rate of the animals during the sessions. The rats learned to avoid the inferior colliculus stimulation when light was used as the warning stimulus (13.25 ± 0.60 s and 8.63 ± 0.93 s for latencies and 12.5 ± 2.04 and 19.62 ± 1.65 for frequencies in the first and second halves of the sessions, respectively, P<0.01 in both cases). No significant changes in latencies (14.75 ± 1.63 and 12.75 ± 1.44 s) or frequencies of responses (8.75 ± 1.20 and 11.25 ± 1.13) were seen when tone was used as the warning stimulus (P>0.05 in both cases). Taken together, the present results suggest that rats learn to avoid the inferior colliculus stimulation when light is used as the warning stimulus. However, this learning process does not occur when the neutral stimulus used is an acoustic one. Electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus may disturb the signal transmission of the stimulus to be conditioned from the inferior colliculus to higher brain structures such as amygdala

Brazil and the institutionalization of South America: from hemispheric estrangement to cooperative hegemony

This article argues that Brazil went from a posture of estrangement in relation to the hemispheric project represented by the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) to a strategy of cooperative hegemony aimed at institutionalizing the South American space and increasing the costs of the FTAA for the United States. Although Brazil was initially isolated, US lack of leadership combined with events at the subregional level ended up turning the tide in the direction of Brazilian interests. These factors help to understand the current institutional configuration of South America.

Climate governance in an international system under conservative hegemony: the role of major powers

In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1) in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2) to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.