Multivariate statistical analysis to support the minimum streamflow regionalization

ABSTRACT This study aimed to develop a methodology based on multivariate statistical analysis of principal components and cluster analysis, in order to identify the most representative variables in studies of minimum streamflow regionalization, and to optimize the identification of the hydrologically homogeneous regions for the Doce river basin. Ten variables were used, referring to the river basin climatic and morphometric characteristics. These variables were individualized for each of the 61 gauging stations. Three dependent variables that are indicative of minimum streamflow (Q7,10, Q90 and Q95). And seven independent variables that concern to climatic and morphometric characteristics of the basin (total annual rainfall – Pa; total semiannual rainfall of the dry and of the rainy season – Pss and Psc; watershed drainage area – Ad; length of the main river – Lp; total length of the rivers – Lt; and average watershed slope – SL). The results of the principal component analysis pointed out that the variable SL was the least representative for the study, and so it was discarded. The most representative independent variables were Ad and Psc. The best divisions of hydrologically homogeneous regions for the three studied flow characteristics were obtained using the Mahalanobis similarity matrix and the complete linkage clustering method. The cluster analysis enabled the identification of four hydrologically homogeneous regions in the Doce river basin.

O uso da técnica de "Linkage" de sistemas de informação em estudos de coorte sobre mortalidade neonatal

Discute-se o uso da "linkage" dos Sistemas Oficiais de Informação de Nascido Vivo (SINASC) e de Óbitos (SIM) em estudos de mortalidade neonatal. Essa técnica baseia-se na "ligação" dos bancos de dados obtidos a partir das informações existentes nesses sistemas, o que possibilita o emprego de estudos do tipo de coorte. O estudo foi realizado no Município de Santo André, Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil. São apresentados os cuidados metodológicos que foram empregados para evitar a presença de viéses de seleção e de efeito, que podem ocorrer. O uso da "linkage" mostrou-se operacionalmente viável, permitindo obter as probabilidades de morte e os riscos relativos dos nascidos vivos, expostos e não expostos, às variáveis que são objeto de registro na declaração de nascido vivo, identificando-se, desta maneira, os recém-nascidos de risco. Essa técnica, de baixo custo operacional, visto que utiliza dados já registrados, permite um dimensionamento mais adequado da assistência pré-natal e ao parto.

Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis) and spatially (place of residence) in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14). The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

Probabilistic linkage in household survey on hospital care usage

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.

Sensibilidade do linkage probabilístico na identificação de nascimentos informados: estudo Pró-Saúde

O objetivo do estudo foi avaliar a sensibilidade do método de linkage probabilístico de registros na identificação de nascimentos de coorte. Foram utilizados dados da população do Estudo Pró-Saúde, um estudo com funcionários técnico-administrativos do quadro efetivo de uma universidade no Rio de Janeiro, realizado em 1999. Os registros de 92 participantes foram relacionados com a base do Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos utilizando o programa RecLink II. Empregaram-se estratégias de revisão manual reduzida e ampliada. A sensibilidade para a identificação dos nascimentos na estratégia reduzida foi de 60,9%, enquanto que na ampliada foi de 72,8%. Os poucos campos disponíveis e a elevada proporção de homônimas representaram os maiores obstáculos para a obtenção de resultados mais acurados.

Subnotificação da comorbidade tuberculose e aids: uma aplicação do método de linkage

OBJETIVO: Analisar a subnotificação da comorbidade tuberculose (TB) e aids. MÉTODOS: Estudo de vigilância utilizando os registros do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação de Tuberculose e de aids no Brasil de 2000 a 2005. Registros de TB sem informação da presença de aids foram considerados subnotificações da comorbidade quando pareados a registros de aids que apresentassem ano de diagnóstico de aids igual ou anterior ao ano de notificação da TB, assim como os registros de um mesmo paciente cujos registros anteriores apresentavam essa informação. Criou-se um indicador: comorbidade TB-aids reconhecida, a partir dos registros de TB com a informação de presença de aids. RESULTADOS: A subnotificação de TB-aids foi de 17,7%. Esse percentual variou entre estados. A incorporação dos registros subnotificados aos previamente reconhecidos elevou a proporção de TB-aids no Brasil de 6,9% para 8,4%. As maiores proporções de subnotificação foram observadas no Acre, Alagoas, Maranhão e Piauí (mais de 35% cada) e as menores em São Paulo e Goiás (cerca de 10% cada). CONCLUSÕES: A subnotificação da comorbidade TB-aids encontrada no Brasil deve deflagrar modificações no sistema de vigilância para prover informações aos programas nacionais.

Pathology of complete atrioventricular block in chronic chagas' myocarditis

Sclero-atrophy, fibrosis, vascular ectasia, phlebosclerosis and mild non-specific chronic inflammatory changes were observed in variable location and proportion involving the atrioventricular conducting tissue of the heart in five human cases of chronic Chagas' myocarditis associated with complete atrioventricular block. One case presented complete destruction of the A-V conduction system. In three cases the lesions were disseminated all along the conducting tissue but did not cause anywhere a complete disruption in the continuity of the system. The distal portion of the bundle branches were the most damaged sector of the system, exceptfor the fasciculi of the posterior division of the left bundle branch which were relatively preserved. One case exhibited bilateral sclero-atrophy of the bundle branches as the main change; and another showed early and mild fibrocalcific damage of the penetrating portion of the His bundle. The A-V node appeared as the least involved part of the conducting system in the cases studied. Demonstration of the lesions in this series of cases seems important because: a) it reveals that complete atrioventriculr block in chronic Chagas' disease results from disseminated lesions and not from focal disruptive change as has been commonly observed in cases of other etiologies; b) it shows that chronic inflammation can produce at the end variable and widespread vascular, degenerative andfibrotic alterations within the conducting tissue of the heart, which may lead to its total destruction.

Flow cytometric quantitation of phagocytosis in heparinized complete blood with latex particles and Candida albicans

We report a rapid method for the flow cytometric quantitation of phagocytosis in heparinized complete peripherial blood (HCPB), using commercially available phycoerythrin-conjugated latex particles of 1µm diameter. The method is faster and shows greater reproducibility than Bjerknes' (1984) standard technique using propidium iodide-stained Candida albicans, conventionally applied to the leukocytic layer of peripherial blood but here modified for HCPB. We also report a modification of Bjerknes' Intracellular Killing Test to allow its application to HCPB.

Anti-HBs levels among children and adolescents with complete immunization schedule against hepatitis B virus. A cross-sectional study in Blumenau, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2007-2008

INTRODUCTION: Vaccination is the main tool for preventing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection; however, following the completion of the vaccination series, the concentrations of anti-HBs can decline over the years and reach levels less than 10mIU/mL. The persistence of protection in these individuals is still unknown. The present study aimed to determine the anti-HBs antibody levels among children and adolescents who had received a complete vaccination course for hepatitis B. METHODS: Antibodies against HBV surface antigen (anti-HBs) were tested in 371 individuals aged 10 to 15 years-old. RESULTS: Volunteers who showed undetectable quantities of anti-HBs accounted for 10.2% of the population studied and 39.9% presented antibody titers of less than 10mIU/mL. Anti-HBs > 10mIU/mL were verified in 49.9%. CONCLUSIONS: These results corroborate other studies indicating levels of anti-HBs below 10mIU/mL in vaccinated individuals. Additional studies are required to assess whether this indicates susceptibility to HBV infection and the need and age for booster doses.

A complete molecular biology assay for hepatitis C virus detection, quantification and genotyping

Introduction Molecular biology procedures to detect, genotype and quantify hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA in clinical samples have been extensively described. Routine commercial methods for each specific purpose (detection, quantification and genotyping) are also available, all of which are typically based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) targeting the HCV 5′ untranslated region (5′UTR). This study was performed to develop and validate a complete serial laboratory assay that combines real-time nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) techniques for the complete molecular analysis of HCV (detection, genotyping and viral load) in clinical samples. Methods Published HCV sequences were compared to select specific primers, probe and restriction enzyme sites. An original real-time nested RT-PCR-RFLP assay was then developed and validated to detect, genotype and quantify HCV in plasma samples. Results The real-time nested RT-PCR data were linear and reproducible for HCV analysis in clinical samples. High correlations (> 0.97) were observed between samples with different viral loads and the corresponding read cycle (Ct - Cycle threshold), and this part of the assay had a wide dynamic range of analysis. Additionally, HCV genotypes 1, 2 and 3 were successfully distinguished using the RFLP method. Conclusions A complete serial molecular assay was developed and validated for HCV detection, quantification and genotyping.

Heart transplant in a patient with complete absence of the pericardium

We report the case of a heart transplant in which the recipient patient had a total congenital absence of the pericardium. Associated with this, we found a major disproportion between the size of the recipient's mediastinal cavity and the size of the donor's heart. To prevent twisting of the great arteries, we placed the graft on the left diaphragm muscle and beneath the left lung, which resulted in an uneventful early and late postoperative course.

Hypertension and clustering of cardiovascular risk factors in a community in Southeast Brazil: the Bambuí Health and Ageing Study

OBJECTIVE - A population-based prospective study was analysed to: a) determine the prevalence of hypertension; b) investigate the clustering of other cardiovascular risk factors and c) verify whether older differed from younger adults in the pattern of clustering. METHODS - The data comprised a representative sample of the population of Bambuí, Brazil. Multiple logistic regression was used to investigate the independent association between hypertension and selected factors. RESULTS - A total of 820 younger adults (82.5%) and 1494 older adults (85.9%) participated in this study. The overall prevalence of hypertension was 24.8% (SE=1.4 %), being higher in women (26.9±1.5%) than in men (22.0± 1.7%) (p=0.033). Hypertension was positively and significantly associated with physical inactivity, overweight, hypercholesterolemia hyperglycemia and hypertriglyceridemia. The coexistence of hypertension with 4 or more of these risk factors occurred 6 times more than expected by chance, after adjusting for age and sex (OR=6.3; 95%CI: 3.4-11.9). The pattern of risk factor clustering in hypertensive individuals differed with age. CONCLUSION - Our results reinforce the need to increase detection and treatment of hypertension and to approach patients' global risk profiles.

Complete immunization against Trypanosoma cruzi verified in individual mice by complement-mediated lysis

Experimental systems to assay immunity against Trypanosoma cruzi usually demonstrate partial resistance without excluding the establishment of sub-patent infections in protected animals. To test whether Swiss mice immunized with attenuated parasites might develop complete resistance against virulent T. cruzi, experiments were performed involving challenge with low numbers of parasites, enhancement of local inflammation and the combination of natural and acquired resistance. Absence of infection was established after repeated negative parasitological tests (including xenodiagnosis and hemoculture), and lack of lytic antibody was tested by complement mediated lysis. Immunization with 10(7) attenuated epimastigotes conferred protection against the development of high levels of parasitemia after challenge with Tulahuen strain, but was unable to reduce the number of infected animals. However, when a strong, delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction was triggered at the site of infection by injecting a mixture of virulent and attenuated T. cruzi, a significant proportion of immunized animals remained totally free of virulent infection. The same result was obtained when the immunization experiment was performed in four month old Swiss mice, displaying a relatively high natural resistance and challenged with wild, vector-borne parasites. These experiments demonstrate that complete resistance against T. cruzi can be obtained in a significant proportion of animals, under conditions which replicate natural, vector delivered infection by the parasite.

Resolution of an Infection with Leishmania braziliensis Confers Complete Protection to a Subsequent Challenge with Leishmania major in BALB/c Mice

Both Leishmania major and L. braziliensis induce cutaneous leishmaniasis in BALB/c mice. Whereas BALB/c mice die of infection with L. major, they cure an infection with L. braziliensis. We report here that after curing an infection with L. braziliensis, BALB/c mice are resistant to challenge with L. major. When challenged with L. major, L. braziliensis pre-treated BALB/c mice mounted a delayed-type hypersensitivity response to L. major and produced high amounts of interferon-g (IFN-g ) but low amounts of interleukin-4. The IFN-g produced by the L. braziliensis pre-infected mice was involved in the protection seen against L. major challenge since treating the mice with a neutralizing anti-IFN-g abrogated the protection. This suggests that cross-reactive antigen epitopes exist between L. braziliensis and L. major and that pre-infection with L. braziliensis primes BALB/c mice to epitopes on L. major that can elicit a protective Th1 response to the parasite.

Complete nucleotide sequence analysis of a Brazilian dengue virus type 2 strain

In the last decade, dengue fever (DF) in Brazil has been recognized as an important public health problem, and an increasing number of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases have been reported since the introduction of dengue virus type 2 (DEN-2) into the country in 1990. In order to analyze the complete genome sequence of a DEN-2 Brazilian strain (BR64022/98), we designed primers to amplify contiguous segments of approximately 500 base pairs across the entire sequence of the viral genome. Twenty fragments amplified by reverse transcriptase-PCR were cloned, and the complete nucleotide and the deduced amino acid sequences were determined. This constitutes the first complete genetic characterization of a DEN-2 strain from Brazil. All amino acid changes differentiating strains related to the Asian/American-Asian genotype were observed in BR64022/98, indicating the Asiatic origin of the strain.