Contribution to Early Holocene vegetation and climate history of Eastern Orinoco Llanos, Venezuela, from a paleoecological record of a Mauritia L.f. swamp

A palynological analysis of an organic paleosol found at 150-125 cm depth in a Mauritia swamp from the Eastern Orinoco Llanos is presented. The 25 cm pollen record summarizes the vegetation history during the Early Holocene, from 10,225 to 7,800 calendar yr BP. The vegetation was characterized by a Poaceae marsh, where Asteraceae, Melastomataceae, Schefflera-type and Phyllanthus were the most abundant shrubs and trees. Pollen-types richness was lower than that recorded today in similar environments, and Mauritia pollen was absent. Results suggest that climate was as humid as present during the beginning of the Holocene, with a decreasing trend in humidity from around 8,000-7,000 yr BP, in coincidence with the beginning of the "Early-Mid-Holocene Dryness" that affected deeply the Amazon Basin and neighboring areas. Dry climatic conditions could have existed in the study site until the Mid-Late Holocene when a Mauritia swamp developed, and humid conditions similar to present established. Main climate phases inferred in our study site fit well with regional trends recorded in other places located north Amazon Basin. However, conclusions are still limited by the lack of additional Quaternary records in the Orinoco Llanos area, avoiding regional correlations.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Climate and nest opening orientation in Furnarius rufus (Furnariidae)

The Rufous Hornero (Furnarius rufus) is one of the most common bird species in Brazil. Anecdotal information indicates that nest opening orientation in this species is contrary to wind or rainfall direction. To check for the existence of such a pattern, F. rufus nests were randomly sampled within an urban area in central Brazil to assess whether factors such as wind and vegetation cover influence nest opening orientation. Using circular statistics, no evidence was found that nest-opening orientation was important for the species. These results refuse the expected pattern for tree hollow or enclosed nests. The results suggest that factors such as nesting architecture, nest material, nest microclimate or a combination of these, instead of local climate, must be conditioning nesting behavior in this species.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Spatialization of climate, physical and socioeconomic factors that affect the dairy goat production in Brazil and their impact on animal breeding decisions

Brazil has high climate, soil and environmental diversity, as well as distinct socioeconomic and political realities, what results in differences among the political administrative regions of the country. The objective of this study was to determine spatial distribution of the physical, climatic and socioeconomic aspects that best characterize the production of dairy goats in Brazil. Production indices of milk per goat, goat production, milk production, as well as temperature range, mean temperature, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index, relative humidity, altitude, agricultural farms; farms with native pasture, farms with good quality pasture, farms with water resources, farms that receive technical guidance, family farming properties, non-familiar farms and the human development index were evaluated. The multivariate analyses were carried out to spatialize climatic, physical and socioeconomic variables and so differenciate the Brazilian States and Regions. The highest yields of milk and goat production were observed in the Northeast. The Southeast Region had the second highest production of milk, followed by the South, Midwest and North. Multivariate analysis revealed distinctions between clusters of political-administrative regions of Brazil. The climatic variables were most important to discriminate between regions of Brazil. Therefore, it is necessary to implement animal breeding programs to meet the needs of each region.

Inter-annual variations in the floristic and population structure of an herbaceous community of "caatinga" vegetation in Pernambuco, Brazil

The influence of climatic variations on the herbaceous component of the "caatinga" vegetation was examined in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. A total of 105 1 × 1 m-plots were established, of which 35 were in a level micro-habitat, 35 in a riparian micro-habitat, and 35 in a stony microhabitat. During two consecutive years all herbaceous plants in these plots were counted, measured (height and diameter), and collected for identification. The Shannon-Wiener diversity index and the equitability were calculated for each year, as well as the density, frequency, dominance, total basal area and importance index for each species. The total annual pluviometric was 819.5 and 448.8 mm in 2002 and 2003, respectively. The herbaceous flora in the study area was composed of 71 species, of which 58 were sampled in the plots. The families with the greatest species richness were Malvaceae (8 species), Euphorbiaceae (7), Poaceae (6), Convolvulaceae (4), Fabaceae (4), and Portulacaceae (4). The diversity indices were 2.66 and 3.01 nats ind-1 in 2002 and 2003, respectively. The density, frequency, dominance and importance value of herbaceous populations, as well as, the height and diameter of plants were low in the dryer year. The riparian group was the most isolated of the microhabitats examined, both in terms of its floristic and its population structure. Annual seasonal climatic variations greatly modified these populations structure during the course of this study, emphasizing the fact that long-term studies are needed in order to better understand the dynamics of the herbaceous component of the "caatinga" vegetation.

When emergent countries reform global governance of climate change: Brazil under Lula

Due to its recent economic success, Brazil is considered an emerging country, but is it an emerging power concerning global environmental governance? This article argues that although Brazil has a sui generis profile, it can only be considered an emerging power in some environmental regimes, such as global climate change. Thus, international relations theory needs more analytical instruments to assess the impact of emerging powers in global environmental governance

Climate governance in an international system under conservative hegemony: the role of major powers

In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1) in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2) to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.

Climate paradox of the G-8: legal obligations, policy declarations and implementation gap

This article analyzes the climate policy performance of the G-8 from 1992 to 2012 based on their legal commitments (Annex-1 and Annex-B countries) under the UNFCCC (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and their policy declarations on their GHG reduction goals until 2050. A climate paradox has emerged due to a growing implementation gap in Canada, USA and Japan, while Russia, Germany, UK, France and Italy fulfilled their GHG reduction obligation.

The G-77, BASIC, and global climate governance: a new era in multilateral environmental negotiations

The G-77 has historically organized the participation of developing countries in multilateral environmental negotiations. This article analyses the impact of a new coalition of emerging powers - Brazil, China, India, and South Africa as BASIC - on the G-77's role in climate governance. While there are important benefits for both sides in their relationship, I argue that the G-77 is also disadvantaged in several concrete ways by the BASIC countries.

Fighting climate change in the air: lessons from the EU directive on global aviation

The European Union's (EU) decision to include aviation into the Emissions Trade Scheme was heatedly contested. Countries around the world, but mainly the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa group (BRICS) and the US, denounced the EU's initiate as illegal and unilateral. Following a decade of frustrated negotiations at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), this paper interrogates why such measure, in principle climate-friendly, inspired so much global resentment. I argue that concerns with competitiveness and risks of legal inconsistency are important, but insufficient elements to explain the core of the conflict. The paper suggests that the EU was strongly criticized because third countries perceived this action as an imposed solution, which fostered an environment of distrust. Therefore, I claim that the problem has more to do with a normative divide than with a substantive divergence on what should be done regarding aviation emissions. My analysis is informed by the present literature on the links between trade and climate change, but gives particular weight to first-hand information through interviews with key stakeholders. The paper is divided in three parts. First, it presents the scope of the EU directive in historical perspective. Second, it explores the EU's measure through three different angles: legal, economical and political. The final part explores some possible solutions to overcome these divergences.

An overview of domestic aspects in US climate policy

The article shows how domestic aspects influence the United States national and international climate policy. To accomplish the task, the authors analyzes the discussions when Bill Clinton was ruling the country, a time during which global discussions were forwarded. The paper recalls the debate in the Bush administration and the growing polarization since Barack Obama took office.

Dilemma of choice: China's response to climate change

In recent years, erratic global climate conditions have generated an incessant series of natural disasters in China. This article seeks to explore China's climate change policies. This article addresses the impacts of climate change on China's environment and China's perception, principle, objective and policy actions in response to climate change.

The contribution of the European Union to global climate change governance: explaining the conditions for EU actorness

Como organização regional, o papel da União Europeia na governança global do clima enfrenta obstáculos que não se aplicam a nenhuma outra parte da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre a Mudança do Clima (CQNUMC) e do Protocolo de Quioto. Avaliando essa singularidade, este artigo fornece uma analise teórica e empírica de como os elementos de actorness (reconhecimento, capacidade, oportunidade e coesão) definem a participação da UE no regime internacional de mudanças climáticas.