Dilemma of choice: China's response to climate change

In recent years, erratic global climate conditions have generated an incessant series of natural disasters in China. This article seeks to explore China's climate change policies. This article addresses the impacts of climate change on China's environment and China's perception, principle, objective and policy actions in response to climate change.

GEOCHEMISTRY AND GEOCHRONOLOGY OF SURFICIAL ACRE BASIN SEDIMENTS (WESTERN AMAZONIA): KEY INFORMATION FOR CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION.

Geochemical and geochronological analyses of samples of surficial Acre Basin sediments and fossils indicate an extensive fluvial-lacustrine system, occupying this region, desiccated slowly during the last glacial cycle (LGC). This research documents direct evidence for aridity in western Amazonia during the LGC and is important in establishing boundary conditions for LGC climate models as well as in correlating marine and continental (LGC) climate conditions.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Water relations in physic nut according to climatic seasonality, in semiarid conditions

The objective of this work was to determine the effect of climatic seasonality on physic nut (Jatropha curcas), in field, under semiarid climate conditions. Stomatal conductance (g s), transpiration (E), soluble leaf carbohydrates (SLC), free amino acids (FAA) and total proteins (TP) were measured in leaves, in a commercial plantation in Northeast Brazil, during the summer and autumn. Plants showed high g s and E, as well as SLC, FAA and TP contents in the summer, which gradually decreased with the lower temperatures and photosynthetically active radiation during the autumn, despite the higher water availability. Even in conditions of adequate water availability, the combination of low temperatures and reduced light drastically decreased foliar metabolism.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Yellow fever in Brazil: thoughts and hypotheses on the emergence in previously free areas

This article describes and discusses factors associated to the reemergence of yellow fever and its transmission dynamics in the states of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil) and Rio Grande do Sul (Southern) during 2008 and 2009. The following factors have played a pivotal role for the reemergence of yellow fever in these areas: large susceptible human population; high prevalence of vectors and primary hosts (non-human primates); favorable climate conditions, especially increased rainfall; emergence of a new genetic lineage; and circulation of people and/or monkeys infected by virus. There is a need for an effective surveillance program to prevent the reemergence of yellow fever in other Brazilian states.

The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity.

Grasses and legumes as cover crop in no-tillage system in northeastern Pará Brazil

Studies to select one or more species of coverage plants adapted to Amazonian soil and climate conditions of the Amazon are a promising strategy for the improvement of environmental quality, establishing no-till agricultural systems, and thereby reducing the impacts of monoculture farming. The aim of this study was to assess the persistence time, half-life time, macronutrient content and accumulation, and C:N ratio of straw coverage in a Ultisol in northeastern Pará. Experimental design was randomized blocks with five treatments and five replicates. Plants were harvested after 105 days, growth and biomass production was quantified. After 84 days, soil coverage was 97, 85, 52, 50, and 15% for signalgrass (Brachiaria brizantha) (syn. Urochloa), dense crowngrass (Panicum purpurascens), jack bean (Canavalia ensiformes), pearl millet (Pennisetum americanum) and sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea,), respectively. Signalgrass yielded the greatest dry matter production (9,696 kg ha-1). It also had high C:N ratio (38.4), long half-life (86.5 days) and a high persistence in the field. Jack bean also showed high dry matter production (8,950 kg ha-1), but it had low C:N ratio (17.4) and lower half-life time (39 days) than the grasses. These attributes indicate that signalgrass and jack bean have a high potential for use as cover plants in no-till agricultural systems in the State of Pará.

Contribuição ao estudo do «vermelhão» do algodoeiro (Gossipium herbaceum)

During the years 1948, 1949 and 1951 a disease occurred in the cotton crops of the state of S. Paulo Brazil (S. Am.), which caused a severe drop in yields. The abnormality was characterized by a typical reddish - purple color of the leaves, being by this reason, called "vermelhão", that is, reddening of the cotton plant. The disease was associated with a dry season. Among the several hypotheses raised to explain the causes of the disease were: insect attack, potassium deficiency - where from the name "potash hunger" was also given -, and magnesium deficiency: In order to study the problem the Department of Agricultural Chemistry of the College of Agriculture of the University of São Paulo, at Piracicaba, carried out a series of experiments as follows: 1. pot experiments in which soil of one of the affected regions was used ("terra roxa", a red-brownish soil derived from basalt); 2. pot-soil experiments varying the moisture supplied; 3. sand culture experiments omitting certain elements from the nutrient solutions; 4. field plot experiments, conducted on a sandy soil; three different varieties were employed: Texas, Express, and I.A. 817; magnesium was applied either as sulfate or dolomitic limestone. All the experiments were completed with suitable chemical analyses. The results can be summarized as follows: 1. in the first trial, the not properly manured pots (minus Mg), symptoms were registered which were similar to the symptoms observed in the field; it was possible to establish some differences among three different types of reddening: due to lack of K in the mixed fertilizers used, the characteristic cotton rust made its appearance, the red color in the leaves of the minus Mg plants was all alike that described in the current literature as a symptom of Mg-deficiency; in all the treatments ocurred a yellow-reddish color in the leaves associated with the latest stages of maturity; 2. in the second experiment it was verified that when the plants in the pots with soil were kept 75 per cent of the water holding capacity, no symptom of deficiency showed up; was true even for the plants not receiving neither K nor Mg; however, plants supplied with only 25 per cent of the water holding capacity showed, respectively, cotton rust in the minus K treatment and the red purplish color in the minus Mg series; 3. the sand culture experiment confirmed lack of Mg as the cause of "vermelhão", being potash deficiency the responsible for cotton rust; 4. in the field experiment, variety LA. 817 revealed to be the most sensitive to "vermelhão" when Mg was omitted from the fertilizers; symptoms of K deficiency appeared when no K was supplied; both magnesium sulfate and dolomitic limestone proved to be equally effective in the control of "vermelhão"; 5. the analyses of material collected both in the field as well in the pots revealed that leaf petiole in the most reliable part to indicate the K and Mg status of the plant; the variation in Mg content suffered by the plants showing different stages of "vermelhão was, quantitatively, at least as large as that in K content, however when one deals with K deficient plants, that is, plants showing the typical rust, no variation occurred in the Mg content, whereas K in the dry mater dropped from more than 1 per cent to less than half per cent. Then, the following general conclusions can be drawn: 1. Mg deficiency is the cause of "vermelhão" of cotton crops; 2. K deficiency also occurred, but in a lesser degree; 3. the climate conditions - especially the lack of rain influenced the soil dynamic of K, and especially Mg, bringing a severe reduction in their assimilability; 4. the "vermelhão" disease can be easily controlled upon additions either of magnesium sulfate or dolomitic limestone.

A absorção de nitrogênio, fósforo, potássio, cálcio, magnésio, enxôfre e silício pela cana de açúcar, Co 419, e o seu crescimento em função da idade

This paper describes the data obtained for the growth of sugar cane, Variety Co 419, and the amount and rate of absorption of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur, and silicon, according to the age of the plant, in the soil and climate conditions of the state of S. Paulo, Brazil. An experiment was installed in the Estação Experimental de Cana de Açúcar "Dr. José Vizioli", at Piracicaba, state of S. Paulo, Brazil, and the soil "tèrra-roxa misturada" presented the following composition: Sand (more than 0,2 mm)........................................................................ 8.40 % Fine sand (from 0,2 to less than 0,02 mm)................................................. 24.90 % Silt (from 0,02 to less than 0,002 mm)...................................................... 16.40 % Clay (form 0,002 mm and less)................................................................ 50.20 % pH 10 g of soil and 25 ml of distilled water)..................................................... 5.20 %C (g of carbon per 100 g of soil)................................................................. 1.00 %N (g of nitrogen per 100 g of soil)............................................................... 0.15 P0(4)-³ (me. per 100 g of soil, soluble in 0,05 normal H2SO4) ............................... 0.06 K+ (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)....... 0.18 Ca+² (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)...... 2.00 Mg+² (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)...... 0.66 The monthly rainfall and mean temperature from January 1956 to August 1957 are presented in Table 1, in Portuguese. The experiment consisted of 3 replications of the treatments: without fertilizer and with fertilizer (40 Kg of N, from ammonium sulfate; 100 Kg of P(2)0(5) from superphosphate and 40 Kg K2 O, from potassium chloride). Four complete stools (stalks and leaves) were harvested from each treatment, and the plants separated in stalks and leaves, weighed, dried and analysed every month from 6 up to 15 months of age. The data obtained for fresh and dry matter production are presented in table 2, and in figure land 2, in Portuguese. The curves for fresh and dry matter production showed that fertilized and no fertilized sugar cane with 6 months of age presents only 5% of its total weight at 15 months of age. The most intense period of growth in this experiment is located, between 8 and 12 months of age, that is between December 1956 and April 1957. The dry matter production of sugar cane with 8 and 12 months of age was, respectively, 12,5% and 87,5% of the total weight at 15 months of age. The growth of sugar cane in relation to its age follows a sigmoid curve, according to the figures 1, 2 and 3. The increase of dry matter production promoted by using fertilizer was 62,5% when sugar cane was 15 months of age. The concentration of the elements (tables 4 and 5 in Portuguese) present a general trend of decreasing as the cane grows older. In the stalks this is true for all elements studied in this experiment. But in the leaves, somme elements, like sulfur and silicon, appears to increase with the increasing of age. Others, like calcium and magnesium do not show large variations, and finally a third group, formed by nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium seems to decrease at the beginning and later presents a light increasing. The concentration of the elements was higher in the leaves than in the stalks from 6 up to 15 months of age. There were some exceptions. Potassium, magnesium and sulfur were higher in the stalks than in the leaves from 6 up to 8 or 9 months of age. After 9 months, the leaves presented more potassium, magnesium and sulfur than the stalks. The percentage of nitrogen in the leaves was lower in the plants that received fertilizer than in the plants without fertilizer with 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 and 13 months of age. This can be explained by "dilution effect". The uptake of elements by 4 stools (stalks and leaves) of sugar cane according to the plant age is showed in table 6, in Portuguese. The absorption of all studied elements, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur and silicon, was higher in plants that received fertilizer. The trend of uptake of nitrogen and potassium is similar to the trend of production of dry matter, that is, the maximum absorption of those two nutrients occurs between 9 and 13 months of age. Finaly, the maxima amounts of elements absorbed by 4 stools (stalks and leaves) of sugar cane plants that received fertilizer are condensed in the following table: Element Maximum absorption in grams Age of the plants in months Nitrogen (N) 81.0 14 Phosphorus (P) 6.8 15 Potassium (K) 81.5 15 Calcium (Ca) 19.2 15 Magnesium (Mg) 13.9 13 Sulfur (S) 9.3 15 Silicon (Si) 61.8 15 It is very interesting to note the low absorption of phosphorus even with 100 kg of P2O5 per hectare, aplied as superphosphate. The uptake of phosphorus was lower than calcium, magnesium and sulfur. Also, it is noteworthy the large amount of silicon absorbed by sugar cane.

A absorção de ferro pela cana de açúcar, Co 419, em função da idade

This paper describes the results obtained from the determination of iron in sugar cane according to the age of the plant, in the soil and climate conditions of the state of S. Paulo, Brazil. The iron was determined by 1-10- phenanthroline method, in samples cut monthly from 7th to 15th month from an experiment consisted de 3 plots fertilized with amonium sulfate, superphosphate and potassium cloride. The concentration of iron in the stalks and in the leaves varies according to the age of the plant. A ton of fresh stalks 15 months old contains 78,71 g of iron.

Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani,Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpiswere the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies.

Green manure in coffee systems in the region of Zona da Mata, Minas Gerais: characteristics and kinetics of carbon and nitrogen mineralization

The use of green manure may contribute to reduce soil erosion and increase the soil organic matter content and N availability in coffee plantations in the Zona da Mata, State of Minas Gerais, in Southeastern Brazil. The potential of four legumes (A. pintoi, C. mucunoides, S. aterrimum and S. guianensis) to produce above-ground biomass, accumulate nutrients and mineralize N was studied in two coffee plantations of subsistence farmers under different climate conditions. The biomass production of C. mucunoides was influenced by the shade of the coffee plantation. C. mucunoides tended to mineralize more N than the other legumes due to the low polyphenol content and polyphenol/N ratio. In the first year, the crop establishment of A. pintoi in the area took longer than of the other legumes, resulting in lower biomass production and N2 fixation. In the long term, cellulose was the main factor controlling N mineralization. The biochemical characteristics, nutrient accumulation and biomass production of the legumes were greatly influenced by the altitude and position of the area relative to the sun.