14 resultados para change impact

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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Due to its recent economic success, Brazil is considered an emerging country, but is it an emerging power concerning global environmental governance? This article argues that although Brazil has a sui generis profile, it can only be considered an emerging power in some environmental regimes, such as global climate change. Thus, international relations theory needs more analytical instruments to assess the impact of emerging powers in global environmental governance

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In an increasingly complex society, regulatory polices emerge as an important tool in public management. Nevertheless, regulation per se is no longer enough, and the agenda for a regulatory reform is increasing. Following this context, Brazil has implemented Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) in its regulatory agencies. Thus, Brazilian specificities have to be considered and, in this regard, a systematic approach provides a significant contribution. This article aims to address some critical reflections about which policy-makers should ask themselves before joining the implementation of a RIA system in the Brazilian context. Through a long-term perspective, the implementation of RIA must be seen as part of a permanent change in the administrative culture, understanding that RIA should be used as a further resource in the decision-making process, rather than a final solution.

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ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

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Praziquantel was given every eight weeks for two years to children aged under six years of age, living in a Schistosoma haematobium endemic area. Infection with S. haematobium and haematuria were examined in urine and antibody profiles (IgA, IgE, IgM, IgG1, IgG2, IgG3, and IgG4) against S. haematobium adult worm and egg antigens were determined from sera collected before each treatment. Chemotherapy reduced infection prevalence and mean intensity from 51.8% and 110 eggs per 10 ml urine, respectively, before starting re-treatment programme to very low levels thereafter. Praziquantel is not accumulated after periodic administration in children. Immunoglobulin levels change during the course of treatment with a shift towards 'protective' mechanisms. The significant changes noted in some individuals were the drop in 'blocking' IgG2 and IgG4 whereas the 'protecting' IgA and IgG1 levels increased. The antibody profiles in the rest of the children remained generally unchanged throughout the study and no haematuria was observed after the second treatment. The removal of worms before production of large number of eggs, prevented the children from developing morbidity.

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To improve health education within primary schools, the health education booklet Juma na kichocho was evaluated during a study within 5 schools using key-informant questionnaires that recorded children's knowledge and attitude (KA) towards schistosomiasis before and after daily structured-use of booklets. A total of 229 schoolchildren (114 boys : 115 girls) of between 11 and 15 years of age were interviewed and re-assessed after a working school week. Existing and putative booklet-induced changes in KA scores for schistosomiasis were compared directly against equivalent KA scores for malaria. In total 47.4% of children were already aware that schistosomiasis was a water-borne disease while only 10.5% knew of its exact aetiology; after booklet intervention these levels increased to 54.6 and 15.7%, respectively. The majority of children still failed, however, to realise that re-infection could take place soon after treatment. While a positive increase was observed for children's total KA questionnaire scores for both malaria and schistosomiasis after booklet intervention, these were not statistically significant. In the context of control, further educational efforts are needed to promote and guide behavioural change, especially in relation to reduction of environmental water contact.

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The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

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The objective of this study was to assess the development response of cultivated rice and red rice to different increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures, in Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. One hundred years climate scenarios of temperatures 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, and +5ºC, with symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures were created, using the LARS-WG Weather Generator, and a 1969-2003 database. Nine cultivated rice genotypes (IRGA 421, IRGA 416, IRGA 417, IRGA 420, BRS 7 TAIM, BR-IRGA 409, EPAGRI 109, EEA 406 and a hybrid), and two red rice biotypes (awned black hull-ABHRR, and awned yellow hull-AYHRR) were used. The dates of panicle differentiation (R1), anthesis (R4), and all grains with brown hulls (R9) were estimated with a nonlinear simulation model. Overall, the duration of the emergence-R1 phase decreased, whereas the duration of the R1-R4 and R4-R9 phases most often increased, as temperature increased in the climate change scenarios. The simulated rice development response to elevated temperature was not the same, when the increase in minimum and maximum temperature was symmetric or asymmetric.

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Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

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The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of elevated temperature scenarios on leaf development of potato in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Leaf appearance was estimated using a multiplicative model that has a non-linear temperature response function which calculates the daily leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day-1) and the accumulated number of leaves (LN) from crop emergence to the appearance of the upper last leaf. Leaf appearance was estimated during 100 years in the following scenarios: current climate, +1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C e +5 °C. The LAR model was estimated with coefficients of the Asterix cultivar in five emergence dates and in two growing seasons (Fall and Spring). Variable of interest was the duration (days) of the crop emergence to the appearance of the final leaf number (EM-FLN) phase. Statistical analysis was performed assuming a three-factorial experiment, with main effects being climate scenarios, growing seasons, and emergence dates in a completely randomized design using years (one hundred) as replications. The results showed that warmer scenarios lead to an increase, in the fall, and a decrease, in the spring growing season, in the duration of the leaf appearance phase, indicating high vulnerability and complexity of the response of potato crop grown in a Subtropical environment to climate change.

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The consideration of the streamflow seasonality has a high potential to improve the water use. In order to give subsidies to the optimization of water use, it was evaluated the impact of the change of reference annual streamflow by the monthly streamflows in the potential water use throughout the hydrography of Paracatu sub-Basin. It was evaluated the impact on Q7,10 (lowest average streamflow during a 7-day period with an average recurrence of 10 years) and on Q95 (permanent flow present 95% of the time). The use of monthly streamflow to substitute the annual streamflow had a high potential of improvement of water resources use in the sub-Basin studied. The use of monthly Q 7,10 in substitution of annual Q 7,10 increases the potential water use that vary from about 10% in the months of lower water availability to values exceeding 200% in the months with higher availability of surface water resources. The use of monthly Q95 in substitution of the annual Q95 implies in changes oscillating from reduction of 37% in months of higher water restriction to values exceeding 100% in the months of higher availability, so the use of monthly Q95 instead of the annual Q95 enables the more rational and safe use of water resources.

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Objective: To assess the impact of surgical treatment in the sexuality of the obese.Methods: We conducted a qualitative / quantitative research with 30 patients who had undergone Fobi-Capella Roux-Y gastric bypass for at least one year. We collected data through individual interviews using a questionnaire with 10 mixed questions and one open, between May and June 2011. The objective data were quantified in absolute numbers and percentages, and the subjective ones were analyzed using the Discourse of the Collective Subject (DCS) and discussed in view of reference published on the subject.Results: 30 patients were enrolled, with a mean age 44 ± 12 years, 24 (80%) were female and six (20%) were male, 23 (77%) were married, 23 (96%) were hypertensive and eight (33%) were diagnosed with Diabetes Mellitus. After the operation, 11 (37%) individuals reported no change in the number sexual intercourses, but 19 (63%) reported that this number was altered, 16 (53%) informed increased frequency, one (3%) reported a decrease in frequency, one (3%) did not practice sexual intercourse anymore and one (3%) did not report the frequency. The central ideas (CI) raised originated four DCSs: Experience of female sexuality; No experience of female sexuality; Experience of male sexuality; and improvements of comorbidities and psychological factor.Conclusion: there are positive repercussions of physical and emotional orders of the surgical treatment of obesity, favoring the quality of life, including sexuality.

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Concerns about the sustainability of large-scale, direct-drilled RR-soybeans (Glycine max), and RR-maize (Zea mays) under monoculture in central Argentina are growing steadily. An experiment was conducted during three consecutive years to determine the effects of crops and systems (monocultures and strips) and herbicide strategy on weed density, population rate of change (l), b community diversity (H´), crop yields and Land Equivalent Ratio (LER). Not only crops but also crop systems differentially influenced weed densities along their growth and development. For crop harvests, weed densities increased in both maize crop systems as compared to in the one for soybeans, but the lowest increase occurred in soybean strips. Differences were leveled by both herbicide strategies, which achieved 73% efficacy during the critical periods in both crops. l of annual monocotyledonous increased, thus shifting the weed community composition. Species richness and H´ were not affected by crop systems, but both herbicide strategies, particularly POST, either in soybeans in monoculture or in maize strips, significantly enhanced H´. Crop yields significantly increased in the maize-strip system with POST (Year 1) or PRE (Years 2 and 3) strategies, thus increasing LER above 1. Herbicide Environmental Load treatments fall within very low or low field use rating.

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INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and obesity are both associated with reduced physical capacity. The potential benefit of aerobic training on physical capacity has been recognized. The exercise intensity can be established using different methods mostly subjective or indirect. Ventilatory threshold (VT) is a direct and objective method that allows prescribing exercise intensity according to individual capacity. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of aerobic training at VT intensity on cardiopulmonary and functional capacities in CKD patients with excess of body weight. METHODS: Ten CKD patients (eight men, 49.7 ± 10.1 years; BMI 30.4 ± 3.5 kg/m², creatinine clearance 39.4 ± 9.8 mL/min/1.73 m²) underwent training on a treadmill three times per week during 12 weeks. Cardiopulmonary capacity (ergoespirometry), functional capacity and clinical parameters were evaluated. RESULTS: At the end of 12 weeks, VO2PEAK increased by 20%, and the speed at VO2PEAK increased by 16%. The training resulted in improvement in functional capacity tests, such as six-minute walk test (9.2%), two-minute step test (20.3%), arm curl test (16.3%), sit and stand test (35.7%), and time up and go test (15.3%). In addition, a decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressures was observed despite no change in body weight, sodium intake and antihypertensive medication. CONCLUSION: Aerobic exercise performed at VT intensity improved cardipulmonary and functional capacities of overweight CKD patients. Additional benefit on blood pressure was observed. These results suggest that VT can be effectively applied for prescribing exercise intensity in this particular group of patients.

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The Brazilian federal judiciary offers an interesting riddle to scholars of judicial politics and policy change. While the courts have played a major policy role over the past two decades, constraining and altering federal policy across a range of subjects, the court system has simultaneously been labeled "dysfunctional." This paper investigates this riddle: a system plagued by major systemic flaws in its day-to-day operations, which nonetheless still manages to exert a powerful influence on public policy in Brazil. I adopt a new institutional perspective, focusing on how the institutional and normative structure within which judges and other legal actors operate affects policy outcomes.