ESTRATÉGIA SOCIOAMBIENTAL BASEADA EM RECURSOS E AMBIGUIDADE CAUSAL

RESUMO Este trabalho trata da influência da Estratégia Socioambiental Baseada em (RBSS [Resourcebased Socio-environmental Strategy]) na variável dependente ambiguidade causal. Esta, sob a ótica da Visão Baseada em Recursos da Firma (Resource-based View of the Firm - RBV), funciona como um mecanismo de isolamento que impede a imitação pelos concorrentes. A RBSS foi operacionalizada a partir dos construtos orientação socioambiental, engajamento com stakeholders, aperfeiçoamento ambiental e capital humano. Os dados foram analisados com regressão linear. Como resultados, as hipóteses que trataram de orientação socioambiental e engajamento com stakeholders foram suportadas parcialmente, e aquelas que trataram de aperfeiçoamento ambiental e capital humano não foram suportadas.

Modelos de inferência causal: análise crítica da utilização da estatística na epidemiologia

Discute-se a base de construção do conceito de risco, a partir da descrição do modelo de inferência causal de Rubin, desenvolvido no âmbito da estatística aplicada, e incorporado por uma vertente da epidemiologia. A apresentação das premissas da inferência causal torna visível as passagens lógicas assumidas na construção do conceito de risco, permitindo entendê-lo "por dentro". Esta vertente tenta demonstrar que a estatística é capaz de inferir causalidade ao invés de simplesmente evidenciar associações estatísticas, estimando em um modelo o que é definido como o efeito de uma causa. A partir desta distinção entre procedimentos de inferência causal e de associação, busca-se distinguir também o que seria a dimensão epidemiológica dos conceitos, em contrapartida a uma dimensão simplesmente estatística. Nesse contexto, a abordagem dos conceitos de interação e confusão toma-se mais complexa. Busca-se apontar as reduções que se operam nas passagens da construção metodológica do risco. Tanto no contexto de inferências individuais, quanto populacionais, esta construção metodológica impõe limites que precisam ser considerados nas aplicações teóricas e práticas da epidemiologia.

Causal attributions in Brazilian children's reasoning about health and illness

INTRODUCTION: At a time when a great number of diseases can be prevented by changing one's habits and life style, investigations have focused on understanding what adults and children believe to be desirable health practices and uncovering the factors associated with successful adherence to such practices. For these, causal attributions for health and illness were investigated among 96 Brazilian elementary school students. METHODS: Ninety six subjects, aged 6 to 14, were interviewed individually and their causal attributions were assessed through 14 true-false items (e.g. people stay well [healthy] because they are lucky). The relationship between the children's causal attributions and demographic characteristics were also examined. RESULTS: Overall, the results were consistent with previous researches. "Taking care of oneself" was considered the most important cause of good health. "Viruses and germs" and "lack of self-care" were the most selected causes of illness. Analyses revealed significant relationship between subjects' causal attribution and their age, school grade level, socioeconomic status and gender. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest that there may be more cross-cultural similarities than differences in children's causal attributions for health and illness. Finding ways to help individuals engage in appropriate preventive-maintenance health practices without developing an exaggerated notion that the individuals can control their own health and illness is a challenge which remains to be addressed by further research.

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Rickettsia typhi IN RODENTS AND R. felis IN FLEAS IN YUCATÁN AS A POSSIBLE CAUSAL AGENT OF UNDEFINED FEBRILE CASES

Rickettsia typhi is the causal agent of murine typhus; a worldwide zoonotic and vector-borne infectious disease, commonly associated with the presence of domestic and wild rodents. Human cases of murine typhus in the state of Yucatán are frequent. However, there is no evidence of the presence of Rickettsia typhi in mammals or vectors in Yucatán. The presence of Rickettsia in rodents and their ectoparasites was evaluated in a small municipality of Yucatán using the conventional polymerase chain reaction technique and sequencing. The study only identified the presence of Rickettsia typhi in blood samples obtained from Rattus rattus and it reported, for the first time, the presence of R. felis in the flea Polygenis odiosus collected from Ototylomys phyllotis rodent. Additionally, Rickettsia felis was detected in the ectoparasite Ctenocephalides felis fleas parasitizing the wild rodent Peromyscus yucatanicus. This study’s results contributed to a better knowledge of Rickettsia epidemiology in Yucatán.

Reavaliação taxonômica de Colletotrichum guaranicola Albuq. agente causal da antracnose do guaranazeiro

Foi realizada uma reavaliação morfológica de estruturas reprodutivas e de infecção do agente causal da antracnose do guaranazeiro (Paullinia cupana var. sorbilis), visando confirmar a identidade do patógeno. Os resultados reforçam o reconhecimento da espécie Colletotrichum guaranicola Albuq., como um novo taxon dentro do gênero Colletotrichum.

Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

Forame oval patente e acidente vascular cerebral isquêmico em jovens: associação causal ou estatística?

OBJETIVOS: Determinar se há evidências de uma relação causal entre forame oval patente (FOP) e acidente vascular cerebral isquêmico (AVCI) criptogênico em jovens. Analisar essa relação à luz dos critérios de causalidade. MÉTODOS: Avaliaram-se, retrospectivamente, 168 pacientes jovens com AVCI, divididos em dois grupos: criptogênico e de causa definida. Como parte da rotina, os pacientes foram submetidos a pesquisa de FOP por ecocardiograma transesofágico e/ou Doppler transcraniano, ambos associados ao teste de bolhas. Demonstrada a associação estatística univariada entre FOP e AVCI, procedeu-se a análise multivariada. RESULTADOS: Após análise multivariada, a associação FOP e AVCI criptogênico mostrou-se ainda estatisticamente significante, com razão de chance (RCajustada de 3,3 (IC95% 1,5-7,4). O número total de lesões no encéfalo também apresentou associação significativa com o AVCI criptogênico (RCajustada= 0,4 IC95% 0,2-0,9). A associação FOP e AVCI criptogênico satisfez todos os critérios de causalidade. CONCLUSÃO: A relação causal entre o FOP e o AVCI criptogênico em jovens é altamente provável. Esse fato deve ser considerado na decisão terapêutica.

Variabilidade de Stemphylium solari, Weber, agente causal de mancha foliar do tomateiro, no estado de São Paulo

O presente trabalho trata do estudo da variabilidade do fungo, Stemphylium solani Weber, agente causal da Mancha Foliar do tomateiro (Lycopersicum esculentun Mill.), "Mancha de Estemfilium" que está se tornando cada vez mais importante em tôda área, onde se cultiva o tomateiro. Os autores isolaram 33 culturas de S. solani, de 12 municípios do Estado de São Paulo e estudaram suas capacidades de esporulação em meio de cultura. O modo de esporulação dos isolamentos variou bastante e reisolamentos e repicagens sucessivas mostraram que todos os isolamentos mantiveramas características culturais originais. Dois isolamentos (T-347 e T-419) comportaram-se de maneira bastante diferente dos demais isolamentos. Assim, êstes esporulavam espontânea e abundantemente em quaisquer meios, e nos testes de patogenicidade em tomateiro da variedade Santa Cruz, mostraram possuir elevada patogenicidade, que também confirmada estatìsticamente. Com base na capacidade de esporular em meios de cultura, patogenicidade em tomateiro suscetível e estabilidade das características culturais, os autores propuseram a classificação de S. solani, em 3 raças fisiológicas e discutem sua importância na interpretação de dados divergentes da literatura. Além disso, chamam a atenção para as culturas patogênicas capazes de esporular espontâneamente no meio de batata-dextroseagar e suas aplicações nos trabalhos de melhoramento do tomateiro.

Glomevella cingulata (Stonem.) spauld. et v. schrenk. F. SP. phaseoli N.F., fase ascógena do agente causal da antracnose do feijoeiro

O presente trabalho versa sobre a obtenção da fase perfeita de Colletotriohum lindemuthianum (Sacc. et Magn.) Scrib., dirimindo duvidas quanto a sua existência, suscitada pelo primeiro relato feito por SHEAR e WOOD (1913). Após ter encontrado duas linhagens heterotálicas que formaram ascosporos em acasalamentos, os autores estudaram alguns fatores ambientais que favorecem a reprodução sexuada, chegando-se as seguintes conclusões: peritecios se formaram sobre varios meios de cultura semi-sintéticos em cuja composição entram glucose, Ca(N0(3))2.4H(2)0(, MgSO4.7H2O e KH2PO4, agar e água; a quantidade de glucose deve ser igual ou maior do que 4g/l, a de Ca(NO3)2.4H2O de 0,15 a 0,60 g/l e a relação C/N deve estar entre 29,8 a 89,6:1; a adição de vitaminas alterou levemente o nível de aproveitamento de Ca(NO3)2.4H2O, nao havendo boa produção de peritécio ao nível de 0,15 g/l mas permitindo-se ate o nível de 1 g/l, mantendo-se as relações C/N mais ou menos no mesmo nivel; a luz, nos estágios final ou inicial ou em períodos alternados acima de 8 horas, inibiu a formação de ascosporos, sendo, portanto, essencial a escuridão contínua; peritécios se formaram sob condições de pH variável de 4,0 a 6,0; peritécios ejetam ascosporos em condições de alta umidade; a temperatura em que foram obtidos os peritécios foi sempre de 209C. Do acasalamento de linhagens conidiais de C.lindemuthianum o autor obteve resultados a priori comparáveis aos de trabalhos genéticos feitos com G.cingulata, chegando-se a conclusão de que as linhagens usadas sao heterotãlicas possivelmente condicionadas por varios fatores genéticos. Isolamentos ascospóricos foram inoculados, sendo todos patogênicos ao feijoeiro, pelo menos para a variedade Michelite. Comparando morfológicamente a fase ascogena de C.lindemuthvanwn com G.cvngulata, o autor propõe o nome de Glomerelia cingulata (Stonem.) Spauld et v. Schrenk f.phaseoli n.f.

Modeling AIDS vaccines: the cellular level

This paper discuses current strategies for the development of AIDS vaccines wich allow immunzation to disturb the natural course of HIV at different detailed stages of its life cycle. Mathematical models describing the main biological phenomena (i.e. virus and vaccine induced T4 cell growth; virus and vaccine induced activation latently infected T4 cells; incremental changes immune response as infection progress; antibody dependent enhancement and neutralization of infection) and allowing for different vaccination strategies serve as a backgroud for computer simulations. The mathematical models reproduce updated information on the behavior of immune cells, antibody concentrations and free viruses. The results point to some controversial outcomes of an AIDS vaccine such as an early increase in virus concentration among vaccinated when compared to nonvaccinated individuals.

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Molecular Modeling Approaches for Determining Gene Function: application to a Putative Poly-A Binding Protein from Leishmania amazonensis (LaPABP)

The great expansion in the number of genome sequencing projects has revealed the importance of computational methods to speed up the characterization of unknown genes. These studies have been improved by the use of three dimensional information from the predicted proteins generated by molecular modeling techniques. In this work, we disclose the structure-function relationship of a gene product from Leishmania amazonensis by applying molecular modeling and bioinformatics techniques. The analyzed sequence encodes a 159 aminoacids polypeptide (estimated 18 kDa) and was denoted LaPABP for its high homology with poly-A binding proteins from trypanosomatids. The domain structure, clustering analysis and a three dimensional model of LaPABP, basically obtained by homology modeling on the structure of the human poly-A binding protein, are described. Based on the analysis of the electrostatic potential mapped on the model's surface and conservation of intramolecular contacts responsible for folding stabilization we hypothesize that this protein may have less avidity to RNA than it's L. major counterpart but still account for a significant functional activity in the parasite. The model obtained will help in the design of mutagenesis experiments aimed to elucidate the mechanism of gene expression in trypanosomatids and serve as a starting point for its exploration as a potential source of targets for a rational chemotherapy.

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.