59 resultados para capture-recapture models

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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Epidemiological studies of drug misusers have until recently relied on two main forms of sampling: probability and convenience. The former has been used when the aim was simply to estimate the prevalence of the condition and the latter when in depth studies of the characteristics, profiles and behaviour of drug users were required, but each method has its limitations. Probability samples become impracticable when the prevalence of the condition is very low, less than 0.5% for example, or when the condition being studied is a clandestine activity such as illicit drug use. When stratified random samples are used, it may be difficult to obtain a truly representative sample, depending on the quality of the information used to develop the stratification strategy. The main limitation of studies using convenience samples is that the results cannot be generalised to the whole population of drug users due to selection bias and a lack of information concerning the sampling frame. New methods have been developed which aim to overcome some of these difficulties, for example, social network analysis, snowball sampling, capture-recapture techniques, privileged access interviewer method and contact tracing. All these methods have been applied to the study of drug misuse. The various methods are described and examples of their use given, drawn from both the Brazilian and international drug misuse literature.

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ABSTRACT Using camera traps and capture/recapture analyses we recorded the presence and abundance of cat species at Turvo State Park, in southern Brazil. Ocelot [Leopardus pardalis (Linnaeus, 1758)] population density was estimated for two areas of the park, with differing management profiles. Density estimates varied from 0.14 to 0.26 indiv. km2. Another five cat species were recorded at very low frequencies, precluding more accurate analyses. We estimate 24 to 45 ocelots occur in the reserve, which is probably too small for long-term maintenance of the population, if isolated. However, if habitat integrity and connectivity between the Park and the Green Corridor of Misiones is maintained, an estimated ocelot population of 1,680 individuals should have long-term viability.

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In México, the role of mammals in the transmission cycle of Trypanosoma cruzi is poorly known. In the State of Yucatán, an endemic area of Chagas disease, both Didelphis virginiana and D. marsupialis occur sympatrically. However, until now, only the former species had been found infected with T. cruzi. To evaluate the role of D. virginiana in a peridomestic transmission, nine periods of capture-recapture were performed around the village of Dzidzilché, Yucatán. The sex, age, reproductive status, location, and presence of infection with T. cruzi were recorded for each opossum. The chromosome morphology was used to identify the opossum species. T. cruzi was identified by the presence of pseudocysts of amastigotes in cardiac muscle fibers of Balb/c mice inoculated with strains isolated from opossums. However, xenodiagnosis was the best diagnostic method. Triatoma dimidiata, the vector, were collected in and around the opossums' nests, and human dwellings; and were checked for T. cruzi. From 102 blood samples of D. virginiana examined 55 (53.9%) were positive to T. cruzi, the only two D. marsupialis captured were negative. Significant differences were found between infection, and both sex and reproductive condition. Eight out of 14 triatomines collected in peridomestic nests (57.1%), and 32 of 197 captured inside houses (16.3%) were found infected, suggesting a peridomestic transmission. The statistically high abundance of infected opossums and triatomines during the dry season (March to May) suggested the existence of a seasonality in the peridomestic transmission of T. cruzi in Dzidzilché.

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INTRODUCTION: The present study compares human landing catches of primary malaria vectors with two alternative methods of capture: the Shannon trap and the Mosquito magnet. METHODS: This study used regression models to adjust capture data to a negative binominal distribution. RESULTS: Capture numbers and relative percentages obtained from the three methods vary strongly between species. The highest overall captures were obtained for Anopheles triannulatus with captures for the Shannon trap and the Mosquito magnet measuring more than 330% higher than captures obtained by human landings. For Anopheles darlingi, captures by the Shannon trap and the Mosquito magnet were about 14% and 26% of human landing catches, respectively. Another species with malaria transmission potential that was not sampled by human landing captures weascaptured by the Shannon trap and the Mosquito magnet (Anopheles oswaldoi). Both alternative sampling techniques can predict the human landing of Anopheles triannulatus, but without proportionality. Models for Anopheles darlingi counts, after totaling daily captures, are significant and proportional, but prediction models are more reliable when using the Shannon trap compared with the Mosquito magnet captures. CONCLUSIONS: These alternative capture methods can be partially recommended for the substitution of human landing captures or, at least, as complementary forms of monitoring for malarial mosquitoes.

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INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

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In this report, the efficiency of Adultrap under field conditions is compared to a CDC backpack aspirator and to MosquiTRAP. An urban dengue-endemic area of Rio de Janeiro was selected to evaluate the efficiency of mosquito traps in capturing Aedes aegypti females. Adultrap and aspirator captured similar numbers of Ae. aegypti females, with the former showing high specificity to gravid individuals (93.6%). A subsequent mark-release-recapture experiment was conducted to evaluate Adultrap and MosquiTRAP efficiency concomitantly. With a 6.34% recapture rate, MosquiTRAP captured a higher mean number of female Ae. aegypti per trap than Adultrap (Ç2 = 14.26; df = 1; p < 0,05). However, some MosquiTRAPs (28.12%) contained immature Ae. aegypti after 18 days of exposure in the field and could be pointed as an oviposition site for female mosquitoes. Both trapping methods, designed to collect gravid Ae. aegypti females, seem to be efficient, reliable and may aid routine Ae. aegypti surveillance.

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Immunoglobulin E (IgE) and mast cells are believed to play important roles in allergic inflammation. However, their contributions to the pathogenesis of human asthma have not been clearly established. Significant progress has been made recently in our understanding of airway inflammation and airway hyperresponsiveness through studies of murine models of asthma and genetically engineered mice. Some of the studies have provided significant insights into the role of IgE and mast cells in the allergic airway response. In these models mice are immunized systemically with soluble protein antigens and then receive an antigen challenge through the airways. Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from mice with allergic airway inflammation contains significant amounts of IgE. The IgE can capture the antigen presented to the airways and the immune complexes so formed can augment allergic airway response in a high-affinity IgE receptor (FcepsilonRI)-dependent manner. Previously, there were conflicting reports regarding the role of mast cells in murine models of asthma, based on studies of mast cell-deficient mice. More recent studies have suggested that the extent to which mast cells contribute to murine models of asthma depends on the experimental conditions employed to generate the airway response. This conclusion was further supported by studies using FcepsilonRI-deficient mice. Therefore, IgE-dependent activation of mast cells plays an important role in the development of allergic airway inflammation and airway hyperresponsiveness in mice under specific conditions. The murine models used should be of value for testing inhibitors of IgE or mast cells for the development of therapeutic agents for human asthma.

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

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A sensitive and specific Capture Sandwich ELISA (CSE) was developed using polyclonal purified rabbit antibodies against three different axenic strains of Entamoeba histolytica: CSP from Brazil and HM1 - IMSS from Mexico, for the detection of coproantigens in fecal samples. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) againstis E. histolytica was isolated from rabbits immunized with throphozoites whole extract in two stages: affinity chromatography in a column containing E. histolytica antigens bound to Sepharose 4B was followed by another chromatography in Sepharose antibodies 4B-Protein A. A Capture Sandwich ELISA using purified antibodies was able to detect 70ng of amebae protein, showing a sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 94%. The combination of microscopic examination and CSE gave a concordance and discordance of 93.25% and 6.75%, respectively. It was concluded that CSE is highly specific for the detection of coproantigens of E. histolytica in feces of infected patients, is quicker to perform, easier and more sensitive than microscopic examination.

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Amebiasis continues to be of epidemiological importance in underdeveloped countries. Clinical diagnosis and epidemiological setting in a region are based on the fecal microscopic identification of cysts or trophozoites. This procedure requires well trained personnel, is laborious, of low sensitivity and frequently yields false-positives results. The present study was designed to develop an immuno-enzymatic fecal 96 kDa antigen capture test (COPROELISA-Eh) more sensitive and specific than microscopic diagnosis of amebiasis. Triplicates of 177 stool samples processed by the formol-ether concentration method, were defined as positive or negative by three experienced microscopic observers. Another aliquot was submitted to the antigen capture test by a monoclonal antibody against a specific membrane antigen of pathogenic strains of Entamoeba histolytica. Optical densities were interpreted as positive when they exceeded the mean value of negative samples plus two standard deviations. COPROELISA-Eh showed a 94.4% sensitivity, 98.3% specificity, 96.2% positive predictive value and 97.6% negative predictive value for the detection of E. histolytica in feces. COPROELISA-Eh is more sensitive and specific than microscopic examination, does not require specially trained personnel and allows the simultaneous processing of a large number of samples.

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The geographical distribution and intra-domiciliary capture of sylvatic triatomines in three districts of the province of La Convención, Cusco, Peru are presented. In the district of Vilcabamba, eight adults of Rhodnius pictipes and five adults of Panstrongylus geniculatus were found. In the district of Ocobamba, 19 adults, 14 nymphs, and eggs of P. rufotuberculatus were found. In the district of Echarate, six adults and 10 nymphs of Eratyrus mucronatus, an adult of R. pictipes and P. geniculatus, and a nymph of P. rufotuberculatus were also found. The geographical distribution of E. mucronatus has extended to Cusco. This is the first report in Peru of household colonization by this triatomine.