Analysis of multi-scale systemic risk in Brazil's financial market

This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.

Interpreting social enterprises

Institutional and organizational variety is increasingly characterizing advanced economic systems. While traditional economic theories have focused almost exclusively on profit-maximizing (i.e., for-profit) enterprises and on publicly-owned organizations, the increasing relevance of non-profit organizations, and especially of social enterprises, requires scientists to reflect on a new comprehensive economic approach for explaining this organizational variety. This paper examines the main limitations of the orthodox and institutional theories and asserts the need for creating and testing a new theoretical framework, which considers the way in which diverse enterprises pursue their goals, the diverse motivations driving actors and organizations, and the different learning patterns and routines within organizations. The new analytical framework proposed in the paper draws upon recent developments in the theories of the firm, mainly of an evolutionary and behavioral kind. The firm is interpreted as a coordination mechanism of economic activity, and one whose objectives need not coincide with profit maximization. On the other hand, economic agents driven by motivational complexity and intrinsic, non-monetary motivation play a crucial role in forming firm activity over and above purely monetary and financial objectives. The new framework is thought to be particularly suitable to correctly interpret the emergence and role of nontraditional organizational and ownership forms that are not driven by the profit motive (non-profit organizations), mainly recognized in the legal forms of cooperative firms, non-profit organizations and social enterprises. A continuum of organizational forms ranging from profit making activities to public benefit activities, and encompassing mutual benefit organizations as its core constituent, is envisaged and discussed.

A teoria da perspectiva e as mudanças de preferência no mainstream: um prospecto Lakatoseano

The theory of the perspective and the changes of preference in the mainstream: a Lakatosean prospect. For many decades over the 20th Century, the mainstream of economics adopted a normative and axiomatic theory of individual behavior in which maximizing procedures were carried out by rationally unbounded agents. This status has been challenged on many grounds and alternative views from fields like psychology have found a way into the core of economics research frontier. Prospect theory, developed by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky since the 1970s, has provided a more empirical, inductive and descriptive theory of decision making. It has made significant inroads into mainstream microeconomics, shaking the habits of some of its practitioners. This paper first takes stock of its main developments and then uses a Lakatosian framework to draw out its negative and positive heuristics. In what follows, its heuristics are compared to those of traditional rational decision-making theories. The differences between them are highlighted, pointing to changes in the mainstream of the profession and to new opportunities for research.

Freedom of choice and bounded rationality: a brief appraisal of behavioral economists' plea for light paternalism

Behavioral economics has addressed interesting positive and normative questions underlying the standard rational choice theory. More recently, it suggests that, in a real world of boundedly rational agents, economists could help people to improve the quality of their choices without any harm to autonomy and freedom of choice. This paper aims to scrutinize available arguments for and against current proposals of light paternalistic interventions mainly in the domain of intertemporal choice. It argues that incorporating the notion of bounded rationality in economic analysis and empirical findings of cognitive biases and self-control problems cannot make an indisputable case for paternalism.

Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii IgG antibody in HIV/AIDS-infected individuals in Maputo, Mozambique

OBJECTIVE To analyze the prevalence of IgG antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in patients infected with HIV/AIDS and the association of demographic and social variables. METHODS Descriptive cross-sectional study that included the analysis of sociodemographic data and laboratory findings of 200 patients infected with HIV/AIDS treated in a laboratory unit in Maputo, Mozambique, in 2010. Individual data for all participants were collected with a self-administered questionnaire. Plasma samples were tested for IgG testing of anti- T. gondii using hemagglutination for the analysis of antibodies. RESULTS The seroprevalence of IgG anti- T. gondii was 46.0% (95%CI 39.2;52.9), 39.3% (95%CI 29.5;50.0) in men and 50.9% (95%CI 41.9;59.8) in women, with no difference between sex (OR 1.30; 95%CI 0.95;1.77; p = 0.12). Ages ranged from 10 to 60 years, with a higher prevalence of infection in older age groups, but with no significant difference between them. Regularly consuming cattle meat (OR 1.74; 95%CI 1.04;2.89, p = 0.05), breeding cats/dogs (OR 6.18; 95%CI 3.60;10.62, p < 0.000) and having regular contact with soil (OR 3.38; 95%CI 2.19;5.21; p < 0.000) were significantly associated with risk of latent infection. CONCLUSIONS Toxoplasmosis is an infection with high prevalence in Mozambique. Cultural and behavioral aspects increase the risk. Toxoplasmosis can be responsible in our environment by the great burden of morbidity and mortality associated with meningoencephalic injuries in patients with HIV/AIDS.

Determinants of vaccination after the Colombian health system reform

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of individual, household and healthcare system factors on poor children's use of vaccination after the reform of the Colombian health system. METHODS: A household survey was carried out in a random sample of insured poor population in Bogota, in 1999. The conceptual and analytical framework was based on the Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization. It considers two units of analysis for studying vaccination use and its determinants: the insured poor population, including the children and their families characteristics; and the health care system. Statistical analysis were carried out by chi-square test with 95% confidence intervals, multivariate regression models and Cronbach's alpha coefficient. RESULTS: The logistic regression analysis showed that vaccination use was related not only to population characteristics such as family size (OR=4.3), living area (OR=1.7), child's age (OR=0.7) and head-of-household's years of schooling (OR=0.5), but also strongly related to health care system features, such as having a regular health provider (OR=6.0) and information on providers' schedules and requirements for obtaining care services (OR=2.1). CONCLUSIONS: The low vaccination use and the relevant relationships to health care delivery systems characteristics show that there are barriers in the healthcare system, which should be assessed and eliminated. Non-availability of regular healthcare and deficient information to the population are factors that can limit service utilization.

A behavioral intervention in a cohort of Japanese-Brazilians at high cardiometabolic risk

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a health promotion program on cardiometabolic risk profile in Japanese-Brazilians. METHODS: A total of 466 subjects from a study on diabetes prevalence conducted in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, in 2000 completed a 1-year intervention program (2005-2006) based on healthy diet counseling and physical activity. Changes in blood pressure and metabolic parameters in the 2005-2006 period were compared with annual changes in these same variables in the 2000-2005 period. RESULTS: During the intervention, there were greater annual reductions in mean (SD) waist circumference [-0.5(3.8) vs. 1.2(1.2) cm per year, p<0.001], systolic blood pressure [-4.6(17.9) vs. 1.8(4.3) mmHg per year, p<0.001], 2-hour plasma glucose [-1.2(2.1) vs. -0.2(0.6) mmol/L per year, p<0.001], LDL-cholesterol [-0.3(0.9) vs. -0.1(0.2) mmol/L per year, p<0.001] and Framingham coronary heart disease risk score [-0.25(3.03) vs. 0.11(0.66) per year, p=0.02] but not in triglycerides [0.2(1.6) vs. 0.1(0.42) mmol/L per year, p<0.001], and fasting insulin level [1.2(5.8) vs. -0.7(2.2) IU/mL per year, p<0.001] compared with the pre-intervention period. Significant reductions in the prevalence of impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes were seen during the intervention (from 58.4% to 35.4%, p<0.001; and from 30.1% to 21.7%, p= 0.004, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A one-year community-based health promotion program brings cardiometabolic benefits in a high-risk population of Japanese-Brazilians.

Incidence and risk factors for intimate partner violence during the postpartum period

OBJECTIVE To estimate the incidence and identify risk factors for intimate partner violence during postpartum.METHODS This prospective cohort study was conducted with women, aged between 18-49 years, enrolled in the Brazilian Family Health Strategy in Recife, Northeastern Brazil, between 2005 and 2006. Of the 1.057 women interviewed during pregnancy and postpartum, 539 women, who did not report violence before or during pregnancy, were evaluated. A theoretical-conceptual framework was built with three levels of factors hierarchically ordered: women’s and partners’ sociodemografic and behavioral characteristics, and relationship dynamics. Incidence and risk factors of intimate partner violence were estimated by Poisson Regression.RESULTS The incidence of violence during postpartum was 9.3% (95%CI 7.0;12.0). Isolated psychological violence was the most common (4.3%; 95%CI 2.8;6.4). The overlapping of psychological with physical violence occurred at 3.3% (95%CI 2.0;5.3) and with physical and/or sexual in almost 2.0% (95%CI 0.8;3.0) of cases. The risk of partner violence during postpartum was increased for women with a low level of education (RR = 2.6; 95%CI 1.3;5.4), without own income (RR = 1.7; 95%CI 1.0;2.9) and those who perpetrated physical violence against their partner without being assaulted first (RR = 2.0; 95%CI 1.2;3.4), had a very controlling partner (RR = 2.5; 95%CI 1.1;5.8), and had frequent fights with their partner (RR = 1.7; 95%CI 1.0;2.9).CONCLUSIONS The high incidence of intimate partner violence during postpartum and its association with aspects of the relationship’s quality between the couple, demonstrated the need for public policies that promote conflict mediation and enable forms of empowerment for women to address the cycle of violence.

Prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi and Leishmania chagasi infection and risk factors in a Colombian indigenous population

This study was carried out in order to obtain base-line data concerning the epidemiology of American Visceral Leishmaniasis and Chagas’ Disease in an indigenous population with whom the government is starting a dwelling improvement programme. Information was collected from 242 dwellings (1,440 people), by means of house to house interviews about socio-economic and environmental factors associated with Leishmania chagasi and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission risk. A leishmanin skin test was applied to 385 people and 454 blood samples were collected on filter paper in order to detect L. chagasi antibodies by ELISA and IFAT and T. cruzi antibodies by ELISA. T. cruzi seroprevalence was 8.7% by ELISA, L. chagasi was 4.6% and 5.1% by IFAT and ELISA, respectively. ELISA sensitivity and specificity for L. chagasi antibodies were 57% and 97.5% respectively, as compared to the IFAT. Leishmanin skin test positivity was 19%. L. chagasi infection prevalence, being defined as a positive result in the three-immunodiagnostic tests, was 17.1%. Additionally, 2.7% of the population studied was positive to both L. chagasi and T. cruzi, showing a possible cross-reaction. L. chagasi and T. cruzi seropositivity increased with age, while no association with gender was observed. Age (p<0.007), number of inhabitants (p<0.05), floor material (p<0.03) and recognition of vector (p<0.01) were associated with T. cruzi infection, whilst age ( p<0.007) and dwelling improvement (p<0.02) were associated with L. chagasi infection. It is necessary to evaluate the long-term impact of the dwelling improvement programme on these parasitic infections in this community.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

On the economic analysis of response to preventive measures

There are many circumstances in which the effectiveness of preventive measures depends to a large extent on the compliance of the patient in changing his or her behavior or lifestyle. It is shown how economic techniques can be used (i) to describe the rationale of individuals and predict their behavior (Section 2); and (ii) to assess preventive measures that, by requiring a change of conduct, imply "costs" to the individual due to a decline in the quality of life (Appendix). Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease are used as an illustration. While the analysis of Section 2 uses graphical techniques, a simple textbook-type of lifetime utility model with a mathematical emphasis is used in the Appendix. It is also shown that techniques often used to assess health care programs such as the QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) are inappropriate to the evaluation of preventive programs aiming at behavioral changes. Finally, topics that call for further research are indicated.

HTLV-I/II and blood donors: determinants associated with seropositivity in a low risk population

OBJECTIVE: Blood donors in Brazil have been routinely screened for HTLV-I/II since 1993. A study was performed to estimate the prevalence of HTLV-I/II infection in a low risk population and to better understand determinants associated with seropositivity. METHODS: HTLV-I/II seropositive (n=135), indeterminate (n=167) and seronegative blood donors (n=116) were enrolled in an open prevalence prospective cohort study. A cross-sectional epidemiological study of positive, indeterminate and seronegative HTLV-I/II subjects was conducted to assess behavioral and environmental risk factors for seropositivity. HTLV-I/II serological status was confirmed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA) and Western blot (WB). RESULTS: The three groups were not homogeneous. HTLV-I/II seropositivity was associated to past blood transfusion and years of schooling, a marker of socioeconomic status, and use of non-intravenous illegal drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and improvement of blood donor selection process.

Risk-factors for antepartum fetal deaths in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess risk factors for antepartum fetal deaths. METHODS: A population-based case-control study was carried out in the city of São Paulo from August 2000 to January 2001. Subjects were selected from a birth cohort from a linked birth and death certificate database. Cases were 164 antepartum fetal deaths and controls were drawn from a random sample of 313 births surviving at least 28 days. Information was collected from birth and death certificates, hospital records and home interviews. A hierarchical conceptual framework guided the logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Statistically significant factors associated with antepartum fetal death were: mother without or recent marital union; mother's education under four years; mothers with previous low birth weight infant; mothers with hypertension, diabetes, bleeding during pregnancy; no or inadequate prenatal care; congenital malformation and intrauterine growth restriction. The highest population attributable fractions were for inadequacy of prenatal care (40%), hypertension (27%), intrauterine growth restriction (30%) and absence of a long-standing union (26%). CONCLUSIONS: Proximal biological risk factors are most important in antepartum fetal deaths. However, distal factors - mother's low education and marital status - are also significant. Improving access to and quality of prenatal care could have a large impact on fetal mortality.

Metabolic syndrome in fixed-shift workers

OBJECTIVE To analyze if metabolic syndrome and its altered components are associated with demographic, socioeconomic and behavioral factors in fixed-shift workers.METHODS A cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 902 shift workers of both sexes in a poultry processing plant in Southern Brazil in 2010. The diagnosis of metabolic syndrome was determined according to the recommendations from Harmonizing the Metabolic Syndrome. Its frequency was evaluated according to the demographic (sex, skin color, age and marital status), socioeconomic (educational level, income and work shift), and behavioral characteristics (smoking, alcohol intake, leisure time physical activity, number of meals and sleep duration) of the sample. The multivariate analysis followed a theoretical framework for identifying metabolic syndrome in fixed-shift workers.RESULTS The prevalence of metabolic syndrome in the sample was 9.3% (95%CI 7.4;11.2). The most frequently altered component was waist circumference (PR 48.4%; 95%CI 45.5;51.2), followed by high-density lipoprotein. Work shift was not associated with metabolic syndrome and its altered components. After adjustment, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was positively associated with women (PR 2.16; 95%CI 1.28;3.64), workers aged over 40 years (PR 3.90; 95%CI 1.78;8.93) and those who reported sleeping five hours or less per day (PR 1.70; 95%CI 1.09;2.24). On the other hand, metabolic syndrome was inversely associated with educational level and having more than three meals per day (PR 0.43; 95%CI 0.26;0.73).CONCLUSIONS Being female, older and deprived of sleep are probable risk factors for metabolic syndrome, whereas higher educational level and higher number of meals per day are protective factors for metabolic syndrome in fixed-shift workers.