3 resultados para age-structured model

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.

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Anti-Toxoplasma IgG-avidity was determined in 168 serum samples from IgG- and IgM-positive pregnant women at various times during pregnancy, in order to evaluate the predictive value for risk of mother-to-child transmission in a single sample, taking the limitations of conventional serology into account. The neonatal IgM was considered the serologic marker of transmission. Fluorometric tests for IgG, IgM (immunocapture) and IgG-avidity were performed. Fifty-one of the 128 pregnant women tested gave birth in the hospital and neonatal IgM was obtained. The results showed 32 (62.75%) pregnant women having high avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 2.4, and no infected newborn. Nineteen (37.25%) had low or inconclusive avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 11.9, and five infected newborns and one stillbirth. In two infected newborns and the stillbirth maternal IgM indexes were low and in one infected newborn the only maternal parameter that suggested fetal risk was IgG-avidity. In the present study, IgG-avidity performed in single samples from positive IgM pregnant women helped to determine the risk of transmission at any time during pregnancy, especially when the indexes of the two tests were analysed with respect to gestational age. This model may be less expensive in developing countries where there is a high prevalence of infection than the follow-up of susceptible mothers until childbirth with monthly serology, and it creates a new perspective for the diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis.

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Environmental xenoestrogens pose a significant health risk for all living organisms. There is growing evidence concerning the different susceptibility to xenoestrogens of developing and adult organisms, but little is known about their genotoxicity in pre-pubertal mammals. In the present study, we developed an animal model to test the sex- and age-specific genotoxicity of the synthetic estrogen diethylstilbestrol (DES) on the reticulocytes of 3-week-old pre-pubertal and 12-week-old adult BALB/CJ mice using the in vivo micronucleus (MN) assay. DES was administered intraperitoneally at doses of 0.05, 0.5, and 5 µg/kg for 3 days and animals were sampled 48, 72 and 96 h, and 2 weeks after exposure. Five animals were analyzed for each dose, sex, and age group. After the DES dose of 0.05 µg/kg, pre-pubertal mice showed a significant increase in MN frequency (P < 0.001), while adults continued to show reference values (5.3 vs 1.0 MN/1000 reticulocytes). At doses of 0.5 and 5 µg/kg, MN frequency significantly increased in both age groups. In pre-pubertal male animals, MN frequency remained above reference values for 2 weeks after exposure. Our animal model for pre-pubertal genotoxicity assessment using the in vivo MN assay proved to be sensitive enough to distinguish age and sex differences in genome damage caused by DES. This synthetic estrogen was found to be more genotoxic in pre-pubertal mice, males in particular. Our results are relevant for future investigations and the preparation of legislation for drugs and environmentally emitted agents, which should incorporate specific age and gender susceptibility.