Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Malaria transmission model for different levels of acquired immunity and temperature-dependent parameters (vector)

OBJECTIVE: Describe the overall transmission of malaria through a compartmental model, considering the human host and mosquito vector. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed based on the following parameters: human host immunity, assuming the existence of acquired immunity and immunological memory, which boosts the protective response upon reinfection; mosquito vector, taking into account that the average period of development from egg to adult mosquito and the extrinsic incubation period of parasites (transformation of infected but non-infectious mosquitoes into infectious mosquitoes) are dependent on the ambient temperature. RESULTS: The steady state equilibrium values obtained with the model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio in terms of the model's parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio, one of the most important epidemiological variables.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Risk factors for osteoporotic fractures and low bone density in pre and postmenopausal women

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and analyze risk factors associated to osteoporosis and low-trauma fracture in women. METHODS: Cross-sectional study including a total of 4,332 women older than 40 attending primary care services in the Greater São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between 2004 and 2007. Anthropometrical and gynecological data and information about lifestyle habits, previous fracture, medical history, food intake and physical activity were obtained through individual quantitative interviews. Low-trauma fracture was defined as that resulting from a fall from standing height or less in individuals 50 years or older. Multiple logistic regression models were designed having osteoporotic fracture and bone mineral density (BMD) as the dependent variables and all other parameters as the independent ones. The significance level was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: The prevalence of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures was 33% and 11.5%, respectively. The main risk factors associated with low bone mass were age (OR=1.07; 95% CI: 1.06;1.08), time since menopause (OR=2.16; 95% CI: 1.49;3.14), previous fracture (OR=2.62; 95% CI: 2.08;3.29) and current smoking (OR=1.45; 95% CI: 1.13;1.85). BMI (OR=0.88; 95% CI: 0.86;0.89), regular physical activity (OR=0.78; 95% CI: 0.65;0.94) and hormone replacement therapy (OR=0.43; 95% CI: 0.33;0.56) had a protective effect on bone mass. Risk factors significantly associated with osteoporotic fractures were age (OR=1.05; 95% CI: 1.04;1.06), time since menopause (OR=4.12; 95% CI: 1.79;9.48), familial history of hip fracture (OR=3.59; 95% CI: 2.88;4.47) and low BMD (OR=2.28; 95% CI: 1.85;2.82). CONCLUSIONS: Advanced age, menopause, low-trauma fracture and current smoking are major risk factors associated with low BMD and osteoporotic fracture. The clinical use of these parameters to identify women at higher risk for fractures might be a reasonable strategy to improve the management of osteoporosis.

"In vitro" activity of gentian violet against asexual Plasmodium falciparum parasites

In order to investigate whether gentian violet exhibited "in vitro" inhibitory activity against Plasmodium falciparum, the Authors have carried out 20 sensitivity tests according to the microtechnique described by RIECK MANN et al.5. Results have shown inhibition of schizonts'maturation at the following concentration: 1/1000; 1/1500; 1/2000; 1/2500; 1/3000 and 1/4000, thus demonstrating inhibitory activity of the tested dye against asexual blood parasites. The present data suggest gentain violet may be possibly used in the prophylaxis of transfusion-acquired malaria.

A multivariate analysis of the relationship between work ability and S. japonicum infection in Dongting Lake Region, in China

A cross-sectional case-control study on the association between the reduced work ability and S. japonicum infection was carried out in a moderate endemic area for schistosomiasis japonica in the southern part of Dongting lake in China. A total of 120 cases with reduced work ability and 240 controls paired to the case by age, sex, occupation and without reduced work ability, participated in the study. The mean age for individuals was 37.6 years old (21-60), the ratio of male: female was 60:40, the prevalence of S. japonicum in the individuals was 28.3%. The results obtained in this study showed that the infection of S. japonicum in case and control groups was 49.2% (59/120) and 17.9% (43/240), respectively. Odds ratio for reduced work ability among those who had schistosomiasis was 4.34 (95%), confidence interval was 2.58-7.34, and among those who had S. japonicum infection (egg per gram > 100) was up to 12.67 (95%), confidence interval was 3.64-46.39. After odds ratio was adjusted by multiple logistic regression, it was confirmed that heavier intensity of S. japonicum infection and splenomegaly due to S. japonicum infection were the main risk factors for reduced work ability in the population studied.

Human lagochilascariasis treated sucessfully with ivermectin: a case report

A 15 year old male patient was diagnosed as being infected with the nematode Lagochilascaris minor, presenting as abscesses over the left mastoid region, and invading the temporal bone, mastoid sinuses and possibly the CNS. Surgical drainage and administration of cambendazole and levamisole led to improvement, followed by an early relapse and poor tolerance to the antihelminthic drugs. Repeated doses of ivermectin (an animal preparation) were used for the first time to treat this condition and resulted in complete remission of signs of infection, maintained for 15 months after the end of drug therapy, indicating cure of the disease.

HAND-FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STATUS AND RELATIONSHIP WITH METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES IN GUANGZHOU, SOUTHERN CHINA, 2008-2012

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.

Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of bacillary dysentery in Guangzhou, Southern China

Introduction The control of bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big challenge for China. Methods Negative binomial multivariable regression was used to study relationships between meteorological variables and the occurrence of BD during the period of 2006-2012. Results Each 1°C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 3.60% (95%CI, 3.03% to 4.18%) in the monthly number of BD cases, whereas a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of BD cases by 2.85% (95%CI = 3.34% to 2.37% decrease). Conclusions Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of BD in Guangzhou.

Florística e estrutura de fragmento florestal em área de transição na Amazônia Matogrossense no município de Sinop

A fragmentação do ambiente é intensa na amazônia matogrossense e é esperado como consequência, além do desaparecimento da vegetação original, que a flora dos fragmentos seja transicional, com elementos de floresta amazônica e de cerrado e que já apresentem elevada presença de famílias e espécies pioneiras. Este trabalho objetivou avaliar a composição florística e obter parâmetros fitossociológicos de componentes arbóreos presentes em um fragmento urbano no município de Sinop, Mato Grosso com vistas a confirmar sua classificação como vegetação de transição e detectar indícios de perturbação pela fragmentação. A vegetação foi amostrada pela instalação de 25 parcelas permanentes de 20 x 20m, onde foram amostrados os indivíduos com CAP igual ou superior a 15 cm à altura de 1,30m do solo. A densidade total da área foi de 1555 ind./ha, distribuídos em 37 famílias botânicas, 81 gêneros e 113 espécies. A família mais representativa foi Leguminosae com 14 espécies. As espécies que mais contribuíram em abundância e apresentaram maior frequência foram: Cecropia sciadophylla, Cecropia sp., Bellucia grossularioides e Vismia guianensis. O índice de Shannon (H') foi de 3,55, considerado alto para uma floresta de transição. A equabilidade de Pielou foi de 0,75, sugerindo grande dominância de poucas espécies. As espécies que mais se destacaram em ordem decrescente de VI (%) foram Cecropia sp., Bellucia grossularioides, Qualea ingens, Cecropia sciadophylla, Vismia guianensis, Miconia prasina, Trattinickia burserifolia, Unonopsis guatterioides e Schefflera vinosa. O remanescente apresenta uma flora mista amazônica e de cerrado, confirmando ser ecótono e a abundância de pioneiras sugere distúrbios. Esta floresta protege espécies madeireiras e frutíferas com grande potencial para uso múltiplo, podendo ser um espaço educativo com vistas a conservação e manejo sustentável.

A perda precoce do diâmetro luminal após angioplastia coronária e sua influência no fenômeno da reestenose

OBJETIVO: Analisar a perda do diâmetro luminal mínimo (DLM) nos primeiros 15min após angioplastia coronária por balão (AC), quantificando sua influência na reestenose coronária. MÉTODOS: Foram estudadas, prospectivamente, 86 AC em 86 pacientes. Os pacientes foram divididos em dois subgrupos de acordo com a presença ou ausência de reestenose; o 1º grupo compreendendo as 31 lesões com reestenose e o 2º, as 55 lesões sem reestenose. RESULTADOS: A análise univariada mostrou que a relação balão/artéria foi menor no grupo com reestenose (0,92±0,01 vs 1,00±0,11, P= .003). O grupo com reestenose apresentou maior recolhimento elástico absoluto e relativo no 1°min (0,79±0,54 vs 0,68±0,59mm; P= 0,007 e 32,04±14,27 vs 22,15±16,65%; P= 0,006.) e no controle angiográfico do 15°min (1,25±0,59 vs 0,90±0,65mm, P= 0,017 e 46,75±15,69 vs 29,18±17,84%, P<0,00001) do que o grupo sem reestenose. O DLM no 1°min foi menor no grupo com reestenose (2,15±0,42 vs 2,43±0,58mm; P=0,022). O grupo com reestenose apresentou uma maior perda precoce no DLM (0,46±0,34 vs 0,22±0,35mm, P= 0,004). Este decréscimo na luz do vaso determinou que o DLM do 15°min fosse ainda menor no grupo com reestenose (1,69±0,48 vs 2,20±0,61; P= 0,0001). Da análise multivariada, entretanto, identificou-se apenas a relação balão/artéria e o DLM do 15°min como os dois fatores independentes mais relacionados à reestenose. CONCLUSÃO: O recolhimento elástico e a perda do DLM ao longo dos 15min são fatores diretamente relacionados à reestenose. Entretanto, a análise multivariada mostrou que a relação balão/artéria e o DLM de 15min são os dois fatores independentes mais fortemente preditores de reestenose.

Florescimento e produção de sementes de cenoura (Daucus cavota L.) sob a influência do ácido giberélico

Foi conduzido um experimento no Campo Experimental da Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz", em Piracicaba, SP, com a finalidade de se avaliar a influência do ácido giberélico (GA3) na indução do florescimento e produção de sementes de cenoura (Daucus cavota L.) cultivar Denver, do grupo Nantes. Utilizou-se dos seguintes tratamentos: 0, 50, 100 e 150 ppm de ácido giberélico, e para cada dosagem, aplicações de 1, 3 e 6 vezes consecutivas, espaçadas de 7 dias, iniciando-se a primeira aplicação quando o sistema radicular principal apresentava aproximadamente 1 centímetro de diâmetro. Os resultados permitiram concluir que, o ácido giberélico mesmo em doses pequenas pode substituir o frio na indução floral e produção de sementes de cenoura; e que a melhor concentração de ácido giberélico para a produção de sementes de cenoura "Denver" foi a de 100 ppm. Concentrações maiores induziram a formação de plantas com crescimento vegetativo excessivo, embora houvesse florescimento.