20 resultados para Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF)
em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to determine the minimum conditions of wetness duration and mean temperature required for Fusarium head blight infection in wheat. The weather model developed by Zoldan (2008) was tested in field experiments for two wheat cultivars grown in 2005 (five sowing dates) and 2006 (six sowing dates) in 10 m² plots with three replicates. The disease was assessed according to head incidence (HI), spikelet incidence (SI), and the interaction between these two methods was called head blight severity (HBS). Starting at the beginning of anthesis, air temperature and head wetness duration were daily recorded with an automatic weather station. With the combination of these two factors, a weather favorability table was built for the disease occurrence. Starting on the day of flowering beginning (1 - 5% fully exserted anthers), the sum of daily values for infection favorability (SDVIF) was calculated by means of a computer program, according to Zoldan (2008) table. The initial symptoms of the disease were observed at 3.7% spikelet incidence, corresponding to 2.6 SVDFI. The infection occurs in wheat due to rainfall which results in spike wetting of > 61.4 h duration. Rainfall events forecast can help time fungicide application to control FHB. The name of this alert system is proposed as UPF-scab alert.
Resumo:
The objective of this work was to evaluate an estimation system for rice yield in Brazil, based on simple agrometeorological models and on the technological level of production systems. This estimation system incorporates the conceptual basis proposed by Doorenbos & Kassam for potential and attainable yields with empirical adjusts for maximum yield and crop sensitivity to water deficit, considering five categories of rice yield. Rice yield was estimated from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, and compared to IBGE yield data. Regression analyses between model estimates and data from IBGE surveys resulted in significant coefficients of determination, with less dispersion in the South than in the North and Northeast regions of the country. Index of model efficiency (E1') ranged from 0.01 in the lower yield classes to 0.45 in higher ones, and mean absolute error ranged from 58 to 250 kg ha‑1, respectively.
Resumo:
Rabbits have been used as an experimental model in many diseases and for the study of toxicology, pharmacology and surgery in many universities. However, some aspects of their macro anatomy need a more detailed description, especially the abdominal and pelvic arterial vascular system, which has a huge variability in distribution and trajectory. Thirty cadaveric adult New Zealand rabbits, 13 male and 17 female, with an average weight and rostrum-sacral length of 2.5 kg and 40cm, respectively, were used. The thoracic aorta was cannulated and the vascular system was filled with stained latex S-65. The celiac artery and its proximal branches were dissected and lengthened in order to evidence origin and proximal ramifications. The celiac artery emerged between the 12th and 13th thoracic vertebra in 11 (36.7%) rabbits; at the level of the 13th thoracic vertebra in 6 (20%) rabbits; between the 13th thoracic vertebra and the 1st lumbar vertebra in 12 (40%) rabbits; and at the level of the 1st lumbar vertebra in only one (3.3%) rabbit. The mean length of the celiac artery was 0.5cm. The celiac artery first branch was the lienal artery, the second branch was the left gastric artery and the hepatic artery arose from the left gastric artery in all the dissected rabbits. No relation was observed between the celiac artery length and the rostrum-sacral length in rabbits. The number of left gastric and lienal artery branches and the distribution of celiac artery origin are not gender dependent.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To evaluate if temperature and humidity influenced the etiology of bloodstream infections in a hospital from 2005 to 2010.METHODS The study had a case-referent design. Individual cases of bloodstream infections caused by specific groups or pathogens were compared with several references. In the first analysis, average temperature and humidity values for the seven days preceding collection of blood cultures were compared with an overall “seven-days moving average” for the study period. The second analysis included only patients with bloodstream infections. Several logistic regression models were used to compare different pathogens and groups with respect to the immediate weather parameters, adjusting for demographics, time, and unit of admission.RESULTS Higher temperatures and humidity were related to the recovery of bacteria as a whole (versus fungi) and of gram-negative bacilli. In the multivariable models, temperature was positively associated with the recovery of gram-negative bacilli (OR = 1.14; 95%CI 1.10;1.19) or Acinetobacter baumannii (OR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.16;1.37), even after adjustment for demographic and admission data. An inverse association was identified for humidity.CONCLUSIONS The study documented the impact of temperature and humidity on the incidence and etiology of bloodstream infections. The results correspond with those from ecological studies, indicating a higher incidence of gram-negative bacilli during warm seasons. These findings should guide policies directed at preventing and controlling healthcare-associated infections.
Resumo:
I have been employed by several different organizations during over 30 years working on schistosomiasis, the majority spent in endemic areas of Caribean, South America, Africa and the Western Pacific. Much of the work is best classified as applied research but sometimes it strayed to the extremes of either public health control programmes or pure research. Over this period, there have been several significant research developments that have altered our whole approach to control. Ideally, research and control should complement each other but, in reality, they sometimes have conflicting objectives. Public health workers understandably wish to provide immediate, shot-term protection to the communities in their care, but research workers may, within ethical limits, reasonably want to observe untreated communities for extended periods in order to understand the underluing process of transmission, disease pathogenesis and immunity to help develop more effective control measures. An example of this situation has occured recently in Senegal where water development projects seem to have favoured the introduction and spreed of Schistosoma mansoni in the Senegal River Basin. I have been asked to be the scientific consultant to the newly formed ESPOIR programme, linking European research organizations and the Senegal Ministry of Health, to reconcile the conflictiong aims of public health workers, wishing to use whatever funds can be obtained for an immediate chemotherapy to try to eliminate the focus, at present confined to the vicinity of a relatively small, commercially run sugar irrigation scheme; and research workers who see a rare chance to study the development of immune mechanisms in a adults in a community not previously exposed to the infection. This information could prove invaluable in understanding the development of immunity and the pathogenesis of disease, leading eventually to the development of vaccines to revolutionise the future approach to schistosomiasis...
Resumo:
The Centre de Recherche sur les Méningites et les Schistosomes (CERMES) is a research institute depending on the Organisation de Coordination et de Coopération pour la lutte contre les Grandes Endémies - a West African Organization for Public Health - devoted to the studies on schistosomiasis and meningitis. The staff includes 32 persons with 11 scientists and one financial officer. The activities of the CERMES involving schistosomiasis concern three research units: (a) ecology of human and animal schistosomiasis transmission; the CERMES defined the different patterns of schistosomiasis transmission in Niger (involving African dry savana); in this field, we have shown, (i) the existence of important variability in conditions of transmission of S. haematobium and, (ii) natural hybridization between parasitic species of the ruminants (S. bovis and S. curassoni) and genetic interaction between human and animal parasites; (b) definition of morbidity indicators usable for rapid assessment methods, for appraisal of the severity of the disease and for the evaluation of the efficiency of control methods; we have established the correlation between ultrasonographic data and some cheap and simple field indicators; (c) immune response and protective immunity induced by recombinant glutathion S-transferase (Sm28, Sb28 and Sh28) in homologous and heterologous animal models including goats, sheep and non human primates (Erythrocebus patas). In Niger, we participate in all control programs against schistosomiasis to define control strategies, to supervise operations and to participate in their evaluation with external experts. International collaborations constitute a frame including four laboratories in Africa and six laboratories in developed countries (Europe and USA)
Resumo:
Data was analyzed on development of the solanaceen fruit crop Cape gooseberry to evaluate how well a classical thermal time model could describe node appearance in different environments. The data used in the analysis were obtained from experiments conducted in Colombia in open fields and greenhouse condition at two locations with different climate. An empirical, non linear segmented model was used to estimate the base temperature and to parameterize the model for simulation of node appearance vs. time. The base temperature (Tb) used to calculate the thermal time (TT, ºCd) for node appearance was estimated to be 6.29 ºC. The slope of the first linear segment was 0.023 nodes per TT and 0.008 for the second linear segment. The time at which the slope of node apperance changed was 1039.5 ºCd after transplanting, determined from a statistical analysis of model for the first segment. When these coefficients were used to predict node appearance at all locations, the model successfully fit the observed data (RSME=2.1), especially for the first segment where node appearance was more homogeneous than the second segment. More nodes were produced by plants grown under greenhouse conditions and minimum and maximum rates of node appearance rates were also higher.
Resumo:
World mango production is spread over 100 countries that produce over 34.3 million tons of fruit annually. Eighty percent of this production is based in the top nine producing nations that also consume upward of 90% of their production domestically. One to 2 percent of fruit is traded internationally in to markets in the European Community, USA, Arabian Peninsula and Asia. This paper outlines some of the recent research and development advances in mango breeding and genomics, rootstock development, disease management and harvest technologies that are influencing the production and quality of mango fruit traded domestically and internationally.
Resumo:
With the proposal to search for universal cooperation in the field of Medicinal Chemistry, the IUPAC group has elaborated a line of work divided into two phases: a- An Awareness of the true situation of Medicinal Chemistry in the different geographic areas of the world; b- A proposal of actions as to achieve more effective cooperation. This first report presents and discusses the actual situation in South and Central America as well as in sub-Saharan Africa.
Resumo:
This article deals with electrocatalysis and electrocatalysts for low temperature fuel cells and also with established means and methods in electrocatalyst research, development and characterization. The intention is to inform about the fundamentals, state of the art, research and development of noble metal electrocatalysts for fuel cells operating at low temperatures.