128 resultados para Variability Modeling

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

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The technique of precision agriculture and soil-landscape allows delimiting areas for localized management, allowing a localized application of agricultural inputs and thereby may contribute to preservation of natural resources. Therefore, the objective of this work was to characterize the spatial variability of chemical properties and clay content in the context of soil-landscape relationship in a Latosol (Oxisol) under cultivation of citrus. Soil samples were collected at a depth of 0.0-0.2 m in an area of 83.5 ha planted with citrus, as a 50-m intervals grid, with 129 points in concave terrain and 206 points in flat terrain, totaling 335 points. Values for the variables that express the chemical characteristics and clay content of soil properties were analyzed with descriptive statistics and geostatistical modeling of semivariograms for making maps of kriging. The values of range and kriging maps indicated higher variability in the shape of concave topography (top segment) compared with the shape of flat topography (slope and hillside segments below). The identification of different forms of terrain proved to be efficient in understanding the spatial variability of chemical properties and clay content of soil under cultivation of citrus.

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The aim of this work was to estimate the susceptibility of thirty-six peach cultivars to leaf rust caused by Tranzschelia discolor f. sp. persica. The incidence and severity of the disease as well as defoliation in peach trees of an experimental orchard of Parana Federal University of Technology, Campus Dois Vizinhos were evaluated on the growing seasons 2004/2005 and 2005/2006. Immunity to this disease was not observed in the studied cultivars. There was difference in leaf rust intensity depending on the growing season conditions. Cultivars 'Pilcha', 'Sinuelo', 'Chirua', 'Sulina', 'Eldorado' and 'Pampeano' showed tolerance to leaf rust, whereas cultivars 'Vila Nova', 'Fla 1372', 'Coral 2', 'Chimarrita', 'Della Nona', 'BR-1 ' and 'Guaiaca' showed high susceptibility.

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The combined use of precision agriculture and the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) allows the spatial monitoring of coffee nutrient balance to provide more balanced and cost-effective fertilizer recommendations. The objective of this work was to evaluate the spatial variability in the nutritional status of two coffee varieties using the Mean Nutritional Balance Index (NBIm) and its relationship with their respective yields. The experiment was conducted in eastern Minas Gerais in two areas, one planted with variety Catucaí and another with variety Catuaí. The NBIm of the two varieties and their yields were analyzed through geostatistics and, based on the models and parameters of the variograms, were interpolated to obtain their spatial distribution in the studied areas. Variety Catucai, with grater spatial variability, was more nutritional unbalanced than variety Catuai, and consequently produced lower yields. Excess of Fe and Mn makes these elements limiting yield factors.

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Information on the spatial distribution of particle size fractions is essential for use planning and management of soils. The aim of this work to was to study the spatial variability of particle size fractions of a Typic Hapludox cultivated with conilon coffee. The soil samples were collected at depths of 0-0.20 and 0.20-0.40 m in the coffee canopy projection, totaling 109 georeferentiated points. At the depth of 0.2-0.4 m the clay fraction showed average value significantly higher, while the sand fraction showed was higher in the depth of 0-0.20 m. The silt showed no significant difference between the two depths. The particle size fractions showed medium and high spatial variability. The levels of total sand and clay have positive and negative correlation, respectively, with the altitude of the sampling points, indicating the influence of landscape configuration.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

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Giardia duodenalis isolates from asymptomatic or symptomatic patients and from animals present similarities and differences in the protein composition, antigenic profile, pattern of proteases and isoenzymes, as well as in nucleic acids analysis. In the present overview, these differences and similarities are reviewed with emphasis in the host-parasite interplay and possible mechanisms of virulence of the protozoon.

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The Triatominae (Hemiptera:Reduviidae) contains the principal and potential Chagas disease vectors present in Mexico, Central America and South America. Triatoma flavida and T. bruneri are Cuban species. These species are closely related according to morphology and were considered synonyms until 1981, when they were separated on the grounds of external characters of the body and the morphology of male genitalia. The present study seeks to analyze genetic polymorphism of T. flavida and T. bruneri populations using RAPD techniques, and to assess the genetic relationship between these species. Ten random primers were used to evaluate the genetic variability among species using RAPD-PCR. The genetic flow among them was calculated. The dendrogram based on calculated Jaccard distances showed two clearly distinguishable clusters which coincided with the studied species. Within each species, moderate genetic differentiation (Fst 0.05-0.15) and migration rates (N > 1) were found among populations, that reveal gene flow and genetic homogeneity. Between species, the Fst value showed a high genetic differentiation and the migration rate was insufficient to maintain genetic homogeneity, and confirmed the absence of gene flow between them. Our results confirm the genetic variability among T. flavida and T. bruneri species.

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Here we investigate the extent to which different Aspergillus species release galactomannan (GM) in vitro. Marked variability was observed in GM reactivity between and within Aspergillus species, with A. terreus strains showing the highest GM indexes. The in vivo significance of these findings remains to be determined.

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Previous evaluation of the genetic variability of four biogeographical populations of Lutzomyia whitmani from known foci of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil demonstrated two main spatial clusters: Corte de Pedra-BA, Ilhéus-BA and Serra de Baturité-CE in the first cluster, and Martinho Campos-MG in the second. Further analysis showed a high degree of homogeneity in Corte de Pedra population but not in the others, which presented a significant percentage of specimens displaced from their phenon of origin (discrepant individuals). In the present work we analyzed the frequencies of association coefficients in the matrixes of similarity per population of Lutzomyia whitmani from both sexes and the general phenograms obtained, in a more detailed study of those discrepant specimens. Populational stability was observed for Corte de Pedra population, whereas the three remaining populations showed varying degrees of heterogeneity and different displacements according to sex. Our results strongly suggested the existence of a genetic flow between the lineages North-South/North-East and Ilhéus/Serra do Baturité of Lutzomyia whitmani.

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Panstrongylus lutzi is generally restricted to the "caatinga" areas of north-eastern Brazil. Adult insects are frequently found in local houses, but colonies have not previously been registered in the statistics of the Control Programme of Chagas Disease. In Ceará State, our study revealed increasing occurrence of this species, usually with high infection rates for Trypanosoma cruzi, and always represented by adults that invaded the artificial environment. We also found nymphs in the peridomicile and inside the houses. In silvatic habitats we collected two adult females from hollow tree trunks, which may represent an alternative natural ecotope for the species in this state. Panstrongylus lutzi entomological collections from Sobral and Crateús, studied by morphology and morphometrics, showed great variability; those from Crateús were larger smaller and paler in colour, with individuals showing genital features consistent with those described for Panstrongylus lutzi or Panstrongylus sherlocki, whereas those from Sobral were darker and with genitalia compatible with P. sherlocki, nevertheless, all were considered to be Panstrongylus lutzi.

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INTRODUCTION: Isoenzymatic analyses were performed involving species of the Nyssorhynchus and Anopheles subgenera in order to estimate the intra and interspecies genetic variability. METHODS: Mosquitoes were caught at different localities in the Amazon region. The collection and rearing of mosquitoes in the laboratory followed specific protocols. For the genetic variability analyses, the technique of horizontal electrophoresis on starch and starch-agarose gel with appropriate buffer systems was used. The alloenzyme variation was estimated using the Biosys-1 software. RESULTS: Out of the 13 loci, eight were polymorphic. Anopheles nuneztovari presented the largest number of alleles per locus, while the smallest number was detected in Anopheles marajoara from Macapá. The largest number of polymorphic loci was found for Anopheles marajoara from Maruanum and the smallest for Anopheles benarrochi (Guayará Mirim). Anopheles darlingi (Macapá) presented the greatest heterozygosity (Ho = 0.167 ± 0.071), while the lowest heterozygosity (Ho = 0.045 ± 0.019) was observed in Anopheles intermedius (Pacoval) of the subgenus Anopheles. Wright's F coefficient revealed considerable genetic structuring between the populations of Anopheles darlingi (Fst = 0.110) and between the populations of Anopheles marajoara (Fst = 0.082). CONCLUSIONS: Considering all the species studied, the genetic distance ranged from 0.008 to 1.114. The greatest distance was between Anopheles mattogrossensis and Anopheles oswaldoi, while the smallest was between the Anopheles benarrochi populations.

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AbstractINTRODUCTION:Despite chemical and physical vector control strategies, persistent infestations of Triatoma sordida have been reported in a large part of Minas Gerais, Brazil, and the cause for this is little investigated. We aimed to characterize the deltamethrin toxicological profile in peridomestic T. sordidapopulations from Triângulo Mineiro area of Minas Gerais.METHODS:Susceptibility to deltamethrin was assessed in seventeen peridomestic T. sordida populations. Serial dilutions of deltamethrin in acetone (0.2µL) were topically applied on the first instar nymphs (F1; five days old; fasting weight, 1.2 ± 0.2mg). Dose response results were analyzed using Probit software, and the lethal doses, slope and resistance ratios were determined. Qualitative tests were also performed.RESULTS:The deltamethrin susceptibility profile of T. sordida populations revealed resistance ratios ranging from 0.84 to 2.8. The percentage mortality in response to a diagnostic dose was 100.0% in all populations.CONCLUSIONS:From our results, the lack of resistance to insecticides but persistent T. sordida infestations in the Triângulo Mineiro area may be because of: 1) environmental degradation facilitating dispersion of T. sordida , allowing colonization in artificial ecotopes; 2) operational failures; and 3) complexity of the peridomicile in the study area.These variables are being investigated.

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Rainfall data registered betwe en 1910 and 1979 at Manaus confirm the existence of a dry season between June and November (monthly rainfall: 42-162mm) and a rainy season from December until May (monthly rainfall: 211-300mm). Annual precipitation amounted to 2105mm with about 75% of the rainfall recorded during the rainy season. Rainfall data collected over 12 months at eigth stations in the vicinity of and at Manaus are compared. Annual precipitation was lower in Inundation Regions (1150-2150mm) compared with Dryland Regions (2400-2550mm). Considerable differences are found in rainfall patterns (intensity, frequency and time of rainfall). This is also truefor neighbouring stations, even if data of a 11-year record period are compared. Thus, it is highly recommended that preciptation data for bioecological studies be collected at the study site.

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The TRMM-LBA field campaign was held during the austral summer of 1999 in southwestern Amazonia. Among the major objectives, was the identification and description of the diurnal variability of rainfall in the region, associated with the different rain producing weather systems that occurred during the January-February season. By using a network of 40 digital rain gauges implemented in the state of Rondônia, and together with observations and analyses of circulation and convection, it was possible to identify details of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and the associated rainfall mechanisms. Rainfall episodes were characterized by regimes of "low-level easterly" and "westerly" winds in the context of the large-scale circulation. The westerly regime is related to an enhanced South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and an intense and/or wide Low Level Jet (LLJ) east of the Andes, which can extend eastward towards Rondônia, even though some westerly regime episodes also show a LLJ that remains close to the foothill of the Andes. The easterly regime is related to easterly propagating systems (e.g. squall-lines) with possible weakened or less frequent LLJs and a suppressed SACZ. Diurnal variability of rainfall during westerly surface wind regime shows a characteristic maximum at late afternoon followed by a relatively weaker second maximum at early evening (2100 Local Standard Time LST). The easterly regime composite shows an early morning maximum followed by an even stronger maximum in the afternoon.