Toxoplasma-IgM and IgG-avidity in single samples from areas with a high infection rate can determine the risk of mother-to-child transmission

Anti-Toxoplasma IgG-avidity was determined in 168 serum samples from IgG- and IgM-positive pregnant women at various times during pregnancy, in order to evaluate the predictive value for risk of mother-to-child transmission in a single sample, taking the limitations of conventional serology into account. The neonatal IgM was considered the serologic marker of transmission. Fluorometric tests for IgG, IgM (immunocapture) and IgG-avidity were performed. Fifty-one of the 128 pregnant women tested gave birth in the hospital and neonatal IgM was obtained. The results showed 32 (62.75%) pregnant women having high avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 2.4, and no infected newborn. Nineteen (37.25%) had low or inconclusive avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 11.9, and five infected newborns and one stillbirth. In two infected newborns and the stillbirth maternal IgM indexes were low and in one infected newborn the only maternal parameter that suggested fetal risk was IgG-avidity. In the present study, IgG-avidity performed in single samples from positive IgM pregnant women helped to determine the risk of transmission at any time during pregnancy, especially when the indexes of the two tests were analysed with respect to gestational age. This model may be less expensive in developing countries where there is a high prevalence of infection than the follow-up of susceptible mothers until childbirth with monthly serology, and it creates a new perspective for the diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Relationship between Neutrophil-To-Lymphocyte Ratio and Electrocardiographic Ischemia Grade in STEMI

Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been found to be a good predictor of future adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Changes in the QRS terminal portion have also been associated with adverse outcomes following STEMI. Objective: To investigate the relationship between ECG ischemia grade and NLR in patients presenting with STEMI, in order to determine additional conventional risk factors for early risk stratification. Methods: Patients with STEMI were investigated. The grade of ischemia was analyzed from the ECG performed on admission. White blood cells and subtypes were measured as part of the automated complete blood count (CBC) analysis. Patients were classified into two groups according to the ischemia grade presented on the admission ECG, as grade 2 ischemia (G2I) and grade 3 ischemia (G3I). Results: Patients with G3I had significantly lower mean left ventricular ejection fraction than those in G2I (44.58 ± 7.23 vs. 48.44 ± 7.61, p = 0.001). As expected, in-hospital mortality rate increased proportionally with the increase in ischemia grade (p = 0.036). There were significant differences in percentage of lymphocytes (p = 0.010) and percentage of neutrophils (p = 0.004), and therefore, NLR was significantly different between G2I and G3I patients (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only NLR was the independent variable with a significant effect on ECG ischemia grade (odds ratio = 1.254, 95% confidence interval 1.120–1.403, p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found an association between G3I and elevated NLR in patients with STEMI. We believe that such an association might provide an additional prognostic value for risk stratification in patients with STEMI when combined with standardized risk scores.

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy of the right ventricle. Predictive value of QT interval dispersion to assess arrhythmogenic risk and sudden death

OBJECTIVE: To determine in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy the value of QT interval dispersion for identifying the induction of sustained ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study or the risk of sudden cardiac death. METHODS: We assessed QT interval dispersion in the 12-lead electrocardiogram of 26 patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. We analyzed its association with sustained ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death, and in 16 controls similar in age and sex. RESULTS: (mean ± SD). QT interval dispersion: patients = 53.8±14.1ms; control group = 35.0±10.6ms, p=0.001. Patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia: 52.5±13.8ms; without induction of ventricular tachycardia: 57.5±12.8ms, p=0.420. In a mean follow-up period of 41±11 months, five sudden cardiac deaths occurred. QT interval dispersion in this group was 62.0±17.8, and in the others it was 51.9±12.8ms, p=0.852. Using a cutoff > or = 60ms to define an increase in the degree of the QT interval dispersion, we were able to identify patients at risk of sudden cardiac death with a sensitivity of 60%, a specificity of 57%, and positive and negative predictive values of 25% and 85%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy have a significant increase in the degree of QT interval dispersion when compared with the healthy population. However it, did not identify patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study, showing a very low predictive value for defining the risk of sudden cardiac death in the population studied.

Dietary patterns and risk of oral cancer: a case-control study in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between dietary patterns and oral cancer. METHODS: The study, part of a Latin American multicenter hospital-based case-control study, was conducted in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between November 1998 and March 2002 and included 366 incident cases of oral cancer and 469 controls, frequency-matched with cases by sex and age. Dietary data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. The risk associated with the intake of food groups defined a posteriori, through factor analysis (called factors), was assessed. The first factor, labeled "prudent," was characterized by the intake of vegetables, fruit, cheese, and poultry. The second factor, "traditional," consisted of the intake of rice, pasta, pulses, and meat. The third factor, "snacks," was characterized as the intake of bread, butter, salami, cheese, cakes, and desserts. The fourth, "monotonous," was inversely associated with the intake of fruit, vegetables and most other food items. Factor scores for each component retained were calculated for cases and controls. After categorization of factor scores into tertiles according to the distribution of controls, odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: "Traditional" factor showed an inverse association with cancer (OR=0.51; 95% CI: 0.32; 0.81, p-value for trend 0.14), whereas "monotonous" was positively associated with the outcome (OR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.78; 2.85, p-value for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study data suggest that the traditional Brazilian diet, consisting of rice and beans plus moderate amounts of meat, may confer protection against oral cancer, independently of any other risk factors such as alcohol intake and smoking.

Antiretroviral treatment for HIV infection/AIDS and the risk of developing hyperglycemia and hyperlipidemia

A cross-sectional study with internal comparison groups was conducted to describe sociodemographic characteristics, as well as verify the association between the type of antiretroviral treatment used and hyperglycemia and hyperlipidemia, with special attention to the use of HIV protease inhibitors. The data was obtained through an interview questionnaire, as well as blood and urine samples that were collected for the laboratory exams. A total of 418 patients were interviewed. 46 of these, however, met the exclusion criteria. The sample was therefore composed by 372 HIV positive patients, attended at the laboratory of the Correia Picanço State Hospital for the collection of blood, to estimate the HIV viral load and/or TCD4 cell counts from August to November 2000. The association between the variables was tested using the chi-square test and the p-value. A multiple logistic regression analysis was carried out to adjust for potential confounding factors. A greater frequency of patients with high glucose levels was observed among those making use of antiretroviral therapy without protease inhibitors, but the number of patients limited the comparisons. An association was verified between the total serum cholesterol level and the use of HIV protease inhibitors (p = 0.047) even after controlling for age. An association was also observed between the triglyceride levels and the use of HIV protease inhibitors, which remained after adjustment for age, sex and creatinine levels (p < 0.001). The levels of glucose and TSH, the presence of proteinuria and the practice of physical activity were not associated either with the levels of cholesterol or with the levels of tryglicerides thus they were not confounders of the associations described.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection: risk factors and clinical outcome in non-intensive-care units

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is spread out in hospitals across different regions of the world and is regarded as the major agent of nosocomial infections, causing infections such as skin and soft tissue pneumonia and sepsis. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for methicillin-resistance in Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (BSI) and the predictive factors for death. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of fifty-one patients presenting bacteraemia due to S. aureus between September 2006 and September 2008 was analysed. Staphylococcu aureus samples were obtained from blood cultures performed by clinical hospital microbiology laboratory from the Uberlândia Federal University. Methicillinresistance was determined by growth on oxacillin screen agar and antimicrobial susceptibility by means of the disk diffusion method. RESULTS: We found similar numbers of MRSA (56.8%) and methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) (43.2%) infections, and the overall hospital mortality ratio was 47%, predominantly in MRSA group (70.8% vs. 29.2%) (p=0.05). Age (p=0.02) was significantly higher in MRSA patients as also was the use of central venous catheter (p=0.02). The use of two or more antimicrobial agents (p=0.03) and the length of hospital stay prior to bacteraemia superior to seven days (p=0.006) were associated with mortality. High odds ratio value was observed in cardiopathy as comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several risk factors associated with MRSA and MSSA infection, the use of two or more antimicrobial agents was the unique independent variable associated with mortality.

Risk-benefit assessment of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination, anti-phenolic glycolipid I serology, and Mitsuda test response: 10-year follow-up of household contacts of leprosy patients

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Despite multidrug therapy, leprosy remains a public health issue. The intradermal Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, Mitsuda test (lepromin skin test), and anti-phenolic glycolipid I (PGL-I) serology are widely used in leprosy studies and have shown great epidemiological value. METHODS: This longitudinal study evaluated the relative risks and benefits of these three tools by comparing results observed in household contacts (HHCs) of leprosy patients who developed leprosy with those of HHCs who did not in a population of 2,992 individuals monitored during a 10-year period. RESULTS : Seventy-five (2.5%) new leprosy cases were diagnosed, including 28 (0.9%) co-prevalent cases. Therefore, for the risk-benefit assessment, 47 (1.6%) HHCs were considered as truly diagnosed during follow-up. The comparison between healthy and affected contacts demonstrated that not only did BCG vaccination increase protection, but boosters also increased to 95% relative risk (RR) reduction when results for having two or more scars were compared with having no scars [RR, 0.0459; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.006-0.338]. Similarly, Mitsuda reactions >7mm in induration presented 7-fold greater protection against disease development compared to reactions of 0-3mm (RR, 0.1446; 95% CI, 0.0566-0.3696). In contrast, anti-PGL-I ELISA seropositivity indicated a 5-fold RR increase for disease outcome (RR, 5.688; 95% CI, 3.2412-9.9824). The combined effect of no BCG scars, Mitsuda reaction of <7mm, and seropositivity to anti-PGL-I increased the risk for leprosy onset 8-fold (RR, 8.109; 95% CI, 5.1167-12.8511). CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of these combined assays may impose measures for leprosy control strategies.

Urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants: value of urine culture by bag specimen collection

OBJETIVE: to evaluate the efficacy of urine culture by bag specimen for the detection of neonatal urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants. Retrospective study (1997) including full-term newborn infants having a positive urine culture (>100,000 CFU/ml) by bag specimen collection. The urinary tract infection diagnosis was confirmed by positive urine culture (suprapubic bladder aspiration method). The select cases were divided into three groups, according to newborn infant age at the bag specimen collection: GI (< 48 h, n = 17), GII (48 h to 7 d, n = 35) and GIII (> 7 d, n = 9). Sixty one full-term newborn infants were studied (5.1 % of total infants). The diagnosis was confirmed on 19/61 (31.1 %) of full-term infants born alive. Distribution among the groups was: GI = 2/17 (11.8 %), GII = 10//35 (28.6 %), and GIII = 7/9 (77.7 %). The most relevant clinical symptoms were: fever (GI - 100 %, GII - 91.4 %) and weight loss (GI - 35.3 %, GII - 45.7 %). Urine culture results for specimens collected by suprapubic aspiration were: E. coli GI (100 %), GII (40 %) and GIII (28.6 %), E. faecalis GI (30%), Staphylococcus coagulase-negative GII (20 %) and GIII (42.8 %), and Staphylococcus aureus GII (10 %). Correlation between positive urine culture collection (bag specimen method) and urinary tract infection diagnosis, using relative risk analysis, produced the following results: GI=0.30 (CI95% 0.08-1.15), GII=0.51 (CI 95% 0.25-1.06) and GIII=3.31 (CI95% 1.8-6.06) The most frequent urinary tract infection clinical signs in the first week were fever and weight loss, while non-specific symptomatology occurred later. E. coli was most frequent infectious agent, although from the 7th day of life, staphylococcus was noted. The urine culture (bag specimen method) was effective in detecting urinary tract infection only after the 7th day of life.

Predictive value of the ankle-brachial index in the evaluation of intermittent claudication

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the ankle-brachial index (ABI) could be used to predict the prognosis for a patient with intermittent claudication (IC). We studied 611 patients prospectively during 28 months of follow-up. We analyzed the predictive power of using various levels of ABI - 0.30 to 0.70 at 0.05 increments - in terms of the measure's specificity (association with a favorable outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy) and sensitivity (association with a poor outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy). We found that using an ABI of 0.30 as a cut-off value produced the lowest margin of error overall, but the predictive power was still low with respect to identifying the patients with a poor prognosis after non-aggressive therapeutic treatment. Further study is needed to perhaps identify a second factor that could increase the sensitivity of the test.

Are apolipoproteins A and B better than lipoproteins for assessing risk of obstructive coronary heart disease?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether apolipoproteins A-I (Apo A-I) and B (Apo B) have, higher ensitivity (SN), specificity (SP) and positive predictive value (PPV) than lipoproteins (LP), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), and triglycerides (TGL) in assessing the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: This is a transversal case-control study of 241 patients, who were divided into two groups: 1) 145 patients with CHD, and 2) 96 patients without coronary disease. A model of logistic regression to evaluate the relation between the LPs and CHD was developed in which variables with a p-alpha <0.1 were included. RESULTS: Apo A-I levels were higher in the patients without CHD, (OR 2.08, CI 1.20-3.57). There were no statistical differences between the values of Apo A-I and the remaining lipid fractions (Apo A-I: 67%; Apo B: 100%; PPV: TC= 71%; TGC=71%; HDL=71%; LDL=71%). The costs of the tests in Reais were as follows: Apo A-I: R$ 56.60; Apo B-100: R$ 56.60; TC: R$ 9.94; HDL: R$ 21.30; LDL: R$ 28.40; TGL: R$ 14.20. CONCLUSION: Levels of Apo A-I and Apo B have no advantage over conventional lipoproteins in predicting the risk of CHD, despite the statistical association between Apo A-I and CHD; in addition, their costs are higher than those of the conventional lipoproteins.

Laboratory assessment of the hypertensive individual. Value of the main guidelines for high blood pressure

OBJECTIVE: To determine if abnormal laboratory findings are more common in individuals with hypertension and in those with other risk factors, such as obesity, smoking and alcohol ingestion. METHODS: A study was carried out in the general outpatient clinics of a university hospital (145 individuals without previous diagnosis of hypertension) and the following variables were assessed: high blood pressure (as defined by the VI Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection and Treatment of High Blood Pressure - VI JNC), obesity [calculated using body mass index (BMI)], tobacco use, and alcoholic ingestion. The laboratory examinations consisted of the following tests: hemogram, glycemia, uric acid, potassium, total/HDL-fraction cholesterol, triglycerides, calcium and creatinine. RESULTS: High blood pressure was not associated with a higher number of abnormal laboratory tests. Hypertensive individuals with a BMI > or = 25kg/m² or normotensive obese individuals, however, had a higher frequency of diabetes (12X), hypertriglyceridemia (3X), and hypercholesterolemia (2X), as compared with hypertensive individuals with BMI <25kg/m² and preobese/normal weight normotensive individuals. CONCLUSION: High blood pressure is not associated with a higher frequency of abnormal laboratory tests. The association of high blood pressure and obesity, however, increases the detection of diabetes and dyslipidemias.

Predictive value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification of patients with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Seventy eight patients with CCC and NSVT were consecutively and prospectively studied. All patients underwent to 24-hour Holter monitoring, radioisotopic ventriculography, left ventricular angiography, and electrophysiologic study. With programmed ventricular stimulation. RESULTS: Sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) was induced in 25 patients (32%), NSVT in 20 (25.6%) and ventricular fibrillation in 4 (5.1%). In 29 patients (37.2%) no arrhythmia was inducible. During a 55.7-month-follow-up, 22 (28.2%) patients died, 16 due to sudden death, 2 due to nonsudden cardiac death and 4 due to noncardiac death. Logistic regression analysis showed that induction was the independent and main variable that predicted the occurrence of subsequent events and cardiac death (probability of 2.56 and 2.17, respectively). The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test showed that survival probability was significantly lower in the inducible group than in the noninductible group. The percentage of patients free of events was significantly higher in the noninducible group. CONCLUSION: Induction of SMVT during programmed ventricular stimulation was a predictor of arrhythmia occurrence cardiac death and general mortality in patients with CCC and NSVT.

Assessment of the Cardiovascular Risk and Physical Activity of Individuals Exercising at a Public Park in the City of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: Physical exercise helps to prevent cardiovascular disorders. Campaigns promoting exercise have taken many people to the parks of our city. The most appropriate exercise for preventing cardiovascular disorders is the aerobic modality; inappropriate exercise acutely increases cardiovascular risk, especially in individuals at higher risk. Therefore, assessing the cardiovascular risk of these individuals and their physical activities is of practical value. METHODS: In the Parque Fernando Costa, we carried out the project "Exercício e Coração" (Exercise and Heart) involving 226 individuals. Assessment of the cardiovascular risk and of the physical activity practiced by the individuals exercising at that park was performed with a questionnaire and measurement of the following parameters: blood pressure, weight, height, and waist/hip ratio. The individuals were lectured on the benefits provided by exercise and how to correctly exercise. Each participant received a customized exercise prescription. RESULTS: In regard to risk, 43% of the individuals had health problems and 7% of the healthy individuals had symptoms that could be attributed to heart disorders. High blood pressure was observed in a large amount of the population. In regard to the adequacy of the physical activity, the individuals exercised properly. The project was well accepted, because the participants not only appreciated the initiative, but also reported altering their exercise habits after taking part in the project. CONCLUSION: Data obtained in the current study point to the need to be more careful in assessing the health of individuals who exercise at parks, suggesting that city parks should have a sector designated for assessing and guiding physical activity.

Prospective assessment of different indices of cardiac risk for patients undergoing noncardiac surgeries

OBJECTIVE: To compare the accuracy of 4 different indices of cardiac risk currently used for predicting perioperative cardiac complications. METHODS: We studied 119 patients at a university-affiliated hospital whose cardiac assessment had been required for noncardiac surgery. Predictive factors of high risk for perioperative cardiac complications were assessed through clinical history and physical examination, and the patients were followed up after surgery until the 4th postoperative day to assess the occurrence of cardiac events. All patients were classified according to 4 indices of cardiac risk: the Goldman risk-factor index, Detsky modified risk index, Larsen index, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification and their compared accuracies, examining the areas under their respective receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: Cardiac complications occurred in 16% of the patients. The areas under the ROC curves were equal for the Goldman risk-factor index, the Larsen index, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification: 0.48 (SEM ± 0.03). For the Detsky index, the value found was 0.38 (SEM ± 0.03). This difference in the values was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The cardiac risk indices currently used did not show a better accuracy than that obtained randomly. None of the indices proved to be significantly better than the others. Studies to improve our ability to predict such complications are still required.