Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

HIV/AIDS epidemic in the State of Amazonas: characteristics and trends from 2001 to 2012

A scoping review was conducted to describe the epidemiological characteristics of the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, from 2001 to 2012, and temporary patterns were estimated from surveillance data. The results suggest that in its third decade, the Amazon HIV/AIDS epidemic is far from being stabilized and displays rising AIDS incidence and mortality rates and late diagnoses. The data suggest that AIDS cases are hitting mostly young adults and have recently shifted toward men, both homosexual and heterosexual. AIDS cases among the indigenous people have remained stable and low. However, the epidemic has disseminated to the interior of the state, which adds difficulties to its control, given the geographical isolation, logistical barriers, and culturally and ethnically diverse population. Antiretroviral (ARV) therapy has been decentralized, but peripheral ARV services are still insufficient and too distant from people who need them. Recently, the expansion of point-of-care (POC) rapid HIV testing has been contributing to overcoming logistical barriers. Other new POC devices, such as the PIMA CD4 analyzer, will bring the laboratory to the patient. AIDS uniquely coexists with other tropical infections, sharing their epidemiological profiles. The increased demand for HIV/AIDS care services can only be satisfied through increased decentralization to peripheral health units, which can also naturally integrate care with other tropical infections and can promote a shift from vertical to integrated programming. Future challenges involve building surveillance data on HIV case notification and covering the spectrum of engagement in care, including adherence to treatment and follow-up loss.

Human IgE responses to Schistosoma mansoni and resistance to reinfection

Schistosoma mansoni infected Kenyan patients were treated and the intensities of their reinfections were followed over the next two years. in addition, their pre- and six month post-treatment serum levels of IgG1-4, IgM, and IgE, specific for schistosoma, egg and adult worm, were measured in ELISA. No reinfection took place before six months post-treatment. Reinfection intensities varied with age; the younger children becoming reinfected at significantly higher intensities than older individuals. When antibody and reinfection levels were compared, only the six month post-treatment IgE response against adult worm correlated negatively with intensities of reinfection and, therefore, was predictive of resistance or immunity to reinfection. IgE and IgG specific Western Blots were carried out. The adult worm antigens recognized by IgE were restricted compared with the IgG responses of the same patients, although no individual antigen was uniquely recognized by the IgE isotype. A dominant 22 kDa antigen was recognized by most but not all high IgE responders. Patients with IgE responses against this antigen suffered significantly lower subsequent levels of reinfection, compared with non-responders. A monospecific rabbit antiserum against the 22KDa adult worm antigen showed that this antigen is specifically located in the tegument of the adult worm and of 'lung' and 'liver' stage schistosomula, but is absent from the early 'skin' schistosomula. It is possible that this antigen is a target for human IgE mediated immune effector mechanisms active against the post skin stage schistosomula and that this is boosted by the death of adult worms.

Aplicação da espectroscopia de ressonância magnética nuclear para estudos de difusão molecular em líquidos: a técnica DOSY

Diffusion coefficients provide uniquely detailed and easily interpreted information on molecular organization and phase structure. They are quite sensitive to structural changes, and to binding and association phenomena, in particular for liquid colloidal or macromolecular systems. This paper describes the principles of diffusion measurements in liquids by pulsed magnetic field gradient spin-echo (PFG-SE) NMR spectroscopy. The important PFG-SE technique known as DOSY is presented and discussed. This is a noninvasive technique that can provide individual multicomponent translational diffusion coefficients with good precision in a few minutes, without the need for radioactive isotopic labelling.

New-consensus macroeconomic governance in a Keynesian world, and the Keynesian alternative

The paper presents both the New Consensus and Keynesian equilibrium within the usual four competitive macro-markets structure. It gives theoretical explanations of the pernicious effects that the NCM governance, which has been designed for ergodic stationary regimes, brings about in Keynesian non-ergodic regimes. It put forward Keynesian principles of governance which include monetary, budgetary and fiscal instruments, and suggest new directions for the positive and normative analysis of macro-policies.

Incerteza e não ergodicidade: crítica aos neoclássicos

The starting point of this essay is to show that, in our view, the problem of the traditional economics is not in the deductive method nor the mathematical methods used, but to attribute to economic agents "power" on the future and prescribe the existence of ergodic stochastic processes in their economic analyzes. Thus, building a theory on the ground whose bases are not able to sustain a proper understanding of the world, mainstream economics has difficulties in using the modeling for establishing deductions and conclusions that help understanding the system. Thus, the logical-mathematical rigor in economic models and deduction can be used with appropriate axioms, which is not the case of mainstream economics. Our hypothesis is that the inability of the mainstream in predicting economic crisis is due to the non-recognition of some principles that best describe the dynamics of financialized contemporary capitalism, as the principles of non-ergodicity and Keynesian uncertainty.