Analysis of multi-scale systemic risk in Brazil's financial market

This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.

Relationship between the iron status of pregnant women and their newborns

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between iron nutritional status of pregnant women and their newborns using a combination of hematological and biochemical parameters for the diagnosis of iron deficiency. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Jundiaí, Southeastern Brazil, in 2000. Venous blood samples collected from 95 pregnant women and from their umbilical cord and used for the determination of complete blood count, serum iron, total iron-binding capacity, serum ferritin, zinc protoporphyrin, and transferrin saturation. Women were classified into three groups: anemic, iron deficient and non-iron deficient. Statistical analysis included the Tukey-HSD test, Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Among pregnant women, 19% were anemic (97.9% mildly anemic and 2.1% moderately anemic) and 30.5% were iron deficient. No significant difference was seen in mean values of any parameter studied between newborns in the three groups (p>0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis showed weak association between neonatal and maternal parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The iron nutritional status of pregnant women with iron deficiency or mild anemia does not seem to have a significant impact on the iron levels of their children.

Brazilian norms for the International Affective Picture System (IAPS): comparison of the affective ratings for new stimuli between Brazilian and North-American subjects

OBJECTIVE: The study presents the Brazilian norms for 240 new stimuli from International Affective Picture System (IAPS), a database of affective images widely used in research, compared to the North-American normative ratings. METHODS: The participants were 448 Brazilian university students from several courses (269 women and 179 men) with mean age of 24.2 (SD = 7.8), that evaluated the IAPS pictures in the valence, arousal and dominance dimensions by the Self-Assessment Manikin (SAM) scales. Data were compared across the populations by Pearson linear correlation and Student's t-tests. RESULTS: Correlations were highly significant for all dimensions; however, Brazilians' averages for arousal were higher than North-Americans'. CONCLUSIONS: The results show stability in relation to the first part of the Brazilian standardization and they are also consistent with the North-American standards, despite minor differences relating to interpretation of the arousal dimension, demonstrating that IAPS is a reliable instrument for experimental studies in the Brazilian population.

Early Markers of Atherosclerotic Disease in Individuals with Excess Weight and Dyslipidemia

Abstract Background: Excessive weight is a cardiovascular risk factor since it generates a chronic inflammatory process that aggravates the endothelial function. Objective: To evaluate the endothelial function in individuals with excess weight and mild dyslipidemia using brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (BAFMD), and the association of endothelial function with anthropometric and biochemical variables. Methods: Cross-sectional study that included 74 individuals and evaluated anthropometric variables (body mass index [BMI], waist-hip ratio [WHR], waist circumference [AC], and percentage of body fat [PBF]), biochemical (blood glucose, insulinemia, ultrasensitive C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and LDL-cholesterol) and endothelial function (BAFMD, evaluated by ultrasound). The statistical analysis was performed with SPSS, version 16.0. To study the association between the variables, we used chi-square, Student's t and Mann-Whitney tests, and Pearson's correlation. Logistic regression analyzed the independent influence of the factors. Values of p < 0.05 were considered significant. Results: The participants had a mean age of 50.8 years, and 57% were female. BMI, WC, WHR, and PBF showed no significant association with BAFMD. The male gender (p = 0.02) and higher serum levels of fibrinogen (p = 0.02) were significantly and independently associated with a BAFMD below 8%. Conclusions: In individuals with excess weight and mild untreated dyslipidemia, male gender and higher levels of fibrinogen were independently associated with worse BAFMD.

Correlation between placental thickness in the second and third trimester and fetal weight

PURPOSE: To investigate relationship between placental thickness during the second and third trimesters and placental and birth weights. METHODS: From January 2011 to June 2012, a total of 250 singleton pregnant women presented at our antenatal clinic were enrolled in this prospective study. All recruited women were assessed at the 1st trimester screening for baseline demographic and obstetric data. The placental thickness was measured trans-abdominally by placing the ultrasound transducer perpendicularly to the plane of the placenta, in the area of the cord insertion at second and third trimester. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to establish the degree of relationship between placental thickness and birth and placental weights. RESULTS: Of 250 recruited participants, 205 women were able to complete the study. The mean age of cases was 26.4±5.1. Values of mean birth and placental weights were 305.56±657.0 and 551.7±104.8 grams respectively. Ultrasonographic measures of placental thickness in second and third trimester and changes between them were 21.68±4.52, 36.26±6.46 and 14.67±5.67 mm respectively. There was a significant positive correlation between placental thickness and birth weight in the second and third trimesters (r=0.15, p=0.03; r=0.14, p=0.04 correspondingly). CONCLUSION: According to our study, birth weight has a positive relation with both second and third trimester placental thickness; however, placental thickness change could not predict low birth weight.

Bone mineral density of Brazilian girls with juvenile dermatomyositis

We measured bone mineral density (BMD) in girls with juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) considering multiple factors in order to determine if it could be used as a predictor of reduction in bone mass. A cross-sectional study of lumbar spine BMD (L2-L4) was conducted on 10 girls aged 7-16 years with JDM. A group of 20 age-matched healthy girls was used as control. Lumbar spine BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Weight, height and pubertal Tanner stage were determined in all patients and controls. Duration of disease and mean daily and cumulative steroid doses were calculated for all patients on the basis of their medical charts. JDM activity was determined on the basis of the presence of muscle weakness, cutaneous vasculitis and/or elevation of serum concentration of one or more skeletal muscle enzymes. Seven patients demonstrated osteopenia or osteoporosis. Lumbar BMD was significantly lower in the JDM patients than the age-matched healthy control girls (0.712 vs 0.878, respectively; Student t-test, P = 0.041). No significant correlation between BMD and age, height, Tanner stage, disease duration, corticosteroid use, or disease activity was observed in JDM girls, but a correlation was observed between BMD and weight (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.802). Patients with JDM may be at risk for a significant reduction in BMD that might contribute to further skeletal fragility. Our results suggest that reduced bone mass in JDM may be related to other intrinsic mechanisms in addition to steroid treatment and some aspects of the disease itself may contribute to this condition.

The new international financial crisis: causes, consequences and perspectives

The paper investigates the recent financial crisis within a historical and comparative perspective having in mind that it is ultimately a confidence crisis, initially associated to a chain of high risk loans and financial innovations that spread thorough the international system culminating with impressive wealth losses. The financial market will eventually recover from the crisis but the outcome should be followed by a different and more disciplined set of international institutions. There will be a change on how we perceive the widespread liberal argument that the market is always efficient, or at least, more efficient than any State intervention, overcoming the false perception that the State is in opposition to the market. A deep financial crisis brings out a period of wealth losses and an adjustment process characterized by price corrections (commodities and equity price deflation) and real effects (recession and lower employment), and a period of turbulences and end of illusions is in place.

Mortality from asthma in the state of S. Paulo, Brazil (1970-1992)

Mortality from asthma has shown important variations over time in several countries. In Brazil, a mortality study performed in the 60s, covering the cities of S.Paulo and Ribeirão Preto, and other ten cities showed that S.Paulo presented the lowest death rate from asthma among of them all. It was decided to study the time trends of deaths from asthma and from the whole set of respiratory diseases from 1970 to 1992, in the population aged 15-34 yrs. old in the State of S.Paulo, as well as to compare them with those of other countries. Asthma mortality rates during the 23 years of observation since 1975, showed an oscillatory declining pattern with a peak of deaths in the initial years. The linearization of the curve allows the calculation of Pearson's correlation coefficient that was significantly negative, suggesting a decline in the mortality over this period, mainly in the 5-9 yrs. old and 30-34 yrs. old strata. The segmentation of data between the period of ICD-9, 1970 to 1978, and of ICD-9, 1979 and subsequent years, shows that there is stability within each period, in all age-groups, except for that of 5-9 yr. olds between 1970-1978. Comparing the rates of the population aged 15-34 yrs. old for the State of S. Paulo, Brazil, with trends observed in 14 other countries, an intermediate pattern for the first triennial period (1970-1972) as well as for the subsequent triennial periods, emerges. A prevalence study of asthma, a follow up program meant for using emergency rooms and a surveillance of deaths due to all respiratory diseases and specifically to asthma are strongly recommended.

Factors associated to quality of life in active elderly

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether quality of life in active, healthy elderly individuals is influenced by functional status and sociodemographic characteristics, as well as psychological parameters. METHODS: Study conducted in a sample of 120 active elderly subjects recruited from two open universities of the third age in the cities of São Paulo and São José dos Campos (Southeastern Brazil) between May 2005 and April 2006. Quality of life was measured using the abbreviated Brazilian version of the World Health Organization Quality of Live (WHOQOL-bref) questionnaire. Sociodemographic, clinical and functional variables were measured through crossculturally validated assessments by the Mini Mental State Examination, Geriatric Depression Scale, Functional Reach, One-Leg Balance Test, Timed Up and Go Test, Six-Minute Walk Test, Human Activity Profile and a complementary questionnaire. Simple descriptive analyses, Pearson's correlation coefficient, Student's t-test for non-related samples, analyses of variance, linear regression analyses and variance inflation factor were performed. The significance level for all statistical tests was set at 0.05. RESULTS: Linear regression analysis showed an independent correlation without colinearity between depressive symptoms measured by the Geriatric Depression Scale and four domains of the WHOQOL-bref. Not having a conjugal life implied greater perception in the social domain; developing leisure activities and having an income over five minimum wages implied greater perception in the environment domain. CONCLUSIONS: Functional status had no influence on the Quality of Life variable in the analysis models in active elderly. In contrast, psychological factors, as assessed by the Geriatric Depression Scale, and sociodemographic characteristics, such as marital status, income and leisure activities, had an impact on quality of life.

Social contextual factors contributing to child and adolescent labor: an ecological analysis

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between social contextual factors and child and adolescent labor. METHODS: Population-based cohort study carried out with 2,512 families living in 23 subareas of a large urban city in Brazil from 2000 to 2002. A random one-stage cluster sampling was used to select families. Data were obtained through individual household interviews using questionnaires. The annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor was estimated for each district. New child and adolescent labor cases were those who had their first job over the two-year follow-up. The annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor was the response variable and predictors were contextual factors such as lack of social support, social deprivation, unstructured family, perceived violence, poor school quality, poor environment conditions, and poor public services. Pearson's correlation and multiple linear regression were used to assess the associations. RESULTS: There were selected 943 families corresponding to 1,326 non-working children and adolescents aged 8 to 17 years. Lack of social support, social deprivation, perceived violence were all positively and individually associated with the annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor. In the multiple linear regression model, however, only lack of social support and perceived violence in the neighborhood were positively associated to child and adolescent labor. No effect was found for poor school quality, poor environment conditions, poor public services or unstructured family. CONCLUSIONS: Poverty reduction programs can reduce the contextual factors associated with child and adolescent labor. Violence reduction programs and strengthening social support at the community level may contribute to reduce CAL.

Human toxocariasis: frequency of anti-Toxocara antibodies in children and adolescents from an outpatient clinic for lymphatic filariasis in Recife, Northeast Brazil

In a transversal study on a sample of 386 children and adolescents from an outpatient clinic for filariasis in Recife, Northeast Brazil, the frequency of anti-Toxocara antibodies and its relation to age, gender, number of peripheral eosinophils, Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae and intestinal helminths was determined. The total anti-Toxocara IgG antibody frequency was 39.4%, by ELISA technique. The difference in frequency between males (40.1%) and females (37.6%) was not statistically significant. The 6 to 10-year-old subset presented the highest frequency of anti-Toxocara antibodies (60%), and within this age group there was a statistically significant male bias. There was also a significant association between the number of eosinophils and the presence of anti-Toxocara antibodies. Intestinal parasite frequency was 52.1%, but no association was found between this data and the presence of anti-Toxocara antibodies. In the present sample, 42.2% of the patients were Wuchereria bancrofti carriers, however, again this was not associated with the presence of anti-Toxocara antibodies. In conclusion, anti-Toxocara antibodies were highly prevalent in this sample. The present data show that there is no cross correlation between anti-Toxocara IgG antibody and the presence of intestinal helminths and filariasis.

High molecular mass fraction in clinical isolates of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

INTRODUCTION: Different serum levels of the IgG/IgE for Paracoccidioides brasiliensis high mass molecular (hMM) fraction (~366kDa) in the acute and chronic forms of the disease have been reported. Considering the nonexistence of hMM fraction investigation involving clinical isolates of P. brasiliensis, the present study aimed to investigate the presence of the hMM fraction (~366kDa) in cell free antigens (CFA) from P. brasiliensis clinical isolates. METHODS: CFA from 10 clinical isolates and a reference strain (Pb18) were submitted to SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) followed by gel image capturing and densitometer analysis. Additionally, CFA from 20 isolates and Pb18 were analyzed by capture ELISA (cELISA) using polyclonal (polAb) or monoclonal (mAb) antibodies to the hMM fraction. RESULTS: The presence of the hMM component was observed in CFA of all samples analyzed by SDS-PAGE/densitometry and by cELISA. In addition, Pearson's correlation test demonstrated stronger coefficients between hMM fraction levels using pAb and mAb (R = 0.853) in cELISA. CONCLUSIONS: The soluble hMM fraction was present in all the P. brasiliensis clinical isolates analyzed and the reference strain Pb18, which could be used as a source of this antigen. The work also introduces for first time, the cELISA method for P. brasiliensis hMM fraction detection. Analysis also suggests that detection is viable using polAb or mAb and this methodology may be useful for future investigation of the soluble hMM fraction (~366kDa) in sera from PCM patients.

Exploring TM image texture and its relationships with biomass estimation in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon

Many texture measures have been developed and used for improving land-cover classification accuracy, but rarely has research examined the role of textures in improving the performance of aboveground biomass estimations. The relationship between texture and biomass is poorly understood. This paper used Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to explore relationships between TM image textures and aboveground biomass in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon. Eight grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) based texture measures (i.e., mean, variance, homogeneity, contrast, dissimilarity, entropy, second moment, and correlation), associated with seven different window sizes (5x5, 7x7, 9x9, 11x11, 15x15, 19x19, and 25x25), and five TM bands (TM 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7) were analyzed. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to analyze texture and biomass relationships. This research indicates that most textures are weakly correlated with successional vegetation biomass, but some textures are significantly correlated with mature forest biomass. In contrast, TM spectral signatures are significantly correlated with successional vegetation biomass, but weakly correlated with mature forest biomass. Our findings imply that textures may be critical in improving mature forest biomass estimation, but relatively less important for successional vegetation biomass estimation.

Food consumption of adolescents. A simplified questionnaire for evaluating cardiovascular risk

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simplified questionnaire for self-evaluation by adolescents of foods associated with the risk of coronary diseases. METHODS: Frequency questionnaires about 80 foods were answered by representative samples of 256 adolescents aged 12 to 19 from Rio de Janeiro as part of the Nutrition and Health Research project. The dependent variable was the serum cholesterol predicting equation as influenced by diet, and the independent variables were the foods. The variables were normalized and, using Pearson's correlation coefficient, those with r>0.10 were selected for the regression model. The model was analyzed for sex, age, random sample, and total calories. Those food products that explained 85% of the cholesterol variation equation were present in the caloric model, and contained trans fatty acids were selected for the questionnaire. RESULTS: Sixty-five food products had a statistically significant correlation (P<0.001) with the dependent variable. The simplified questionnaire included 9 food products present in all tested models: steak or broiled meat, hamburger, full-fat cheese, French fries or potato chips, whole milk, pies or cakes, cookies, sausages, butter or margarine. The limit of the added food points for self-evaluation was 100, and over 120 points was considered excessive. CONCLUSION: The scores given to the food products and the criteria for the evaluation of the consumption limits enabled the adolescents to get to know and to balance their intake.

Delimitation of kala-azar risk areas in the district of Vaishali in Bihar (India) using a geo-environmental approach

Remote sensing and geographical information technologies were used to discriminate areas of high and low risk for contracting kala-azar or visceral leishmaniasis. Satellite data were digitally processed to generate maps of land cover and spectral indices, such as the normalised difference vegetation index and wetness index. To map estimated vector abundance and indoor climate data, local polynomial interpolations were used based on the weightage values. Attribute layers were prepared based on illiteracy and the unemployed proportion of the population and associated with village boundaries. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationship between environmental variables and disease incidence across the study area. The cell values for each input raster in the analysis were assigned values from the evaluation scale. Simple weighting/ratings based on the degree of favourable conditions for kala-azar transmission were used for all the variables, leading to geo-environmental risk model. Variables such as, land use/land cover, vegetation conditions, surface dampness, the indoor climate, illiteracy rates and the size of the unemployed population were considered for inclusion in the geo-environmental kala-azar risk model. The risk model was stratified into areas of "risk"and "non-risk"for the disease, based on calculation of risk indices. The described approach constitutes a promising tool for microlevel kala-azar surveillance and aids in directing control efforts.