Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Structural sustainability of cambisol under different land use system

Incongruous management techniques have been associated with some significant loss of agricultural land to degradation in many parts of the world. Land degradation results in the alteration of physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil, thereby posing a serious threat to sustainable agricultural development. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the changes in a Cambisol structure under six land use systems using the load bearing capacity model. Sampling was conducted in Amazonas Region, Brazil, in the following land use: a) young secondary forest; b) old secondary forest; c) forest; d) pasture; e) cropping, and f) agroforestry. To obtain the load bearing capacity models the undisturbed soil samples were collected in those land use systems and subjected to the uniaxial compression test. These models were used to evaluate which land use system preserved or degraded the Cambisol structure. The results of the bulk density and total porosity of the soil samples were not adequate to quantify structural degradation in Cambisol. Using the forest topsoil level (0-0.03 m) as a reference, it was observed that pasture land use system was most severe in the degradation of the soil structure while the structure were most preserved under old secondary forest, cropping system and forest. At the subsoil level (0.10-0.13 m depth), the soil structure was most degraded in the cropping land use system while it was most preserved in young secondary forest and pasture. At the 0.20-0.23 m depth, soil structure degradation was most severe in the old secondary forest system and well preserved in young secondary forest, cropping and agroforestry.

Liming in Agricultural Production Models with and Without the Adoption of Crop-Livestock Integration

ABSTRACT Perennial forage crops used in crop-livestock integration (CLI) are able to accumulate large amounts of straw on the soil surface in no-tillage system (NTS). In addition, they can potentially produce large amounts of soluble organic compounds that help improving the efficiency of liming in the subsurface, which favors root growth, thus reducing the risks of loss in yield during dry spells and the harmful effects of “overliming”. The aim of this study was to test the effects of liming on two models of agricultural production, with and without crop-livestock integration, for 2 years. Thus, an experiment was conducted in a Latossolo Vermelho (Oxisol) with a very clayey texture located in an agricultural area under the NTS in Bandeirantes, PR, Brazil. Liming was performed to increase base saturation (V) to 65, 75, and 90 % while one plot per block was maintained without the application of lime (control). A randomized block experimental design was adopted arranged in split-plots and four plots/block, with four replications. The soil properties evaluated were: pH in CaCl2, soil organic matter (SOM), Ca, Mg, K, Al, and P. The effects of liming were observed to a greater depth and for a long period through mobilization of ions in the soil, leading to a reduction in SOM and Al concentration and an increase in pH and the levels of Ca and Mg. In the first crop year, adoption of CLI led to an increase in the levels of K and Mg and a reduction in the levels of SOM; however, in the second crop year, the rate of decline of SOM decreased compared to the decline observed in the first crop year, and the level of K increased, whereas that of P decreased. The extent of the effects of liming in terms of depth and improvement in the root environment from the treatments were observed only partially from the changes observed in the chemical properties studied.

Rice yield estimation based on weather conditions and on technological level of production systems in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate an estimation system for rice yield in Brazil, based on simple agrometeorological models and on the technological level of production systems. This estimation system incorporates the conceptual basis proposed by Doorenbos & Kassam for potential and attainable yields with empirical adjusts for maximum yield and crop sensitivity to water deficit, considering five categories of rice yield. Rice yield was estimated from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, and compared to IBGE yield data. Regression analyses between model estimates and data from IBGE surveys resulted in significant coefficients of determination, with less dispersion in the South than in the North and Northeast regions of the country. Index of model efficiency (E1') ranged from 0.01 in the lower yield classes to 0.45 in higher ones, and mean absolute error ranged from 58 to 250 kg ha‑1, respectively.

ALLOMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS AND BIOMASS ALLOCATION OF CAPIXINGUI TREES (Croton floribundus Spreng.) IN AN AGRISILVICULTURAL SYSTEM

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to select allometric models to estimate total and pooled aboveground biomass of 4.5-year-old capixingui trees established in an agrisilvicultural system. Aboveground biomass distribution of capixingui was also evaluated. Single- (diameter at breast height [DBH] or crown diameter or stem diameter as the independent variable) and double-entry (DBH or crown diameter or stem diameter and total height as independent variables) models were studied. The estimated total biomass was 17.3 t.ha-1, corresponding to 86.6 kg per tree. All models showed a good fit to the data (R2ad > 0.85) for bole, branches, and total biomass. DBH-based models presented the best residual distribution. Model lnW = b0 + b1* lnDBH can be recommended for aboveground biomass estimation. Lower coefficients were obtained for leaves (R2ad > 82%). Biomass distribution followed the order: bole>branches>leaves. Bole biomass percentage decreased with increasing DBH of the trees, whereas branch biomass increased.

Effect of race, genetic population structure, and genetic models in two-locus association studies: clustering of functional renin-angiotensin system gene variants in hypertension association studies

Previous genetic association studies have overlooked the potential for biased results when analyzing different population structures in ethnically diverse populations. The purpose of the present study was to quantify this bias in two-locus association studies conducted on an admixtured urban population. We studied the genetic structure distribution of angiotensin-converting enzyme insertion/deletion (ACE I/D) and angiotensinogen methionine/threonine (M/T) polymorphisms in 382 subjects from three subgroups in a highly admixtured urban population. Group I included 150 white subjects; group II, 142 mulatto subjects, and group III, 90 black subjects. We conducted sample size simulation studies using these data in different genetic models of gene action and interaction and used genetic distance calculation algorithms to help determine the population structure for the studied loci. Our results showed a statistically different population structure distribution of both ACE I/D (P = 0.02, OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.05-2.33 for the D allele, white versus black subgroup) and angiotensinogen M/T polymorphism (P = 0.007, OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.14-2.58 for the T allele, white versus black subgroup). Different sample sizes are predicted to be determinant of the power to detect a given genotypic association with a particular phenotype when conducting two-locus association studies in admixtured populations. In addition, the postulated genetic model is also a major determinant of the power to detect any association in a given sample size. The present simulation study helped to demonstrate the complex interrelation among ethnicity, power of the association, and the postulated genetic model of action of a particular allele in the context of clustering studies. This information is essential for the correct planning and interpretation of future association studies conducted on this population.

Evaluation of respiratory parameters in minimally processed lettuce grown under organic or conventional system

The increased preference for minimally processed vegetables has been attributed to the health benefits associated with fresh produce and the demand for ready-to-eat salads. In this paper, lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) was evaluated for the effects of different cropping systems on the respiratory properties. Lettuce was packaged in low density polyethylene bags and stored in a refrigerator at 4 ºC. The concentration of carbon dioxide and oxygen inside the package was monitored during the storage at zero, three, six, eight, ten and twelve days by gas chromatography. Dry matter variation was measured gravimetrically up to day fourteen of storage. Values of respiratory rate for conventional lettuce increased from day 1 to 3 and remained low, while respiratory rate of the organic lettuce increased three-fold up to day 8, stabilizing at a high level. Variation in dry matter during storage also resulted from differences between the two cultivation systems. The highest content of dry matter was achieved by organic lettuce.

Soil chemical properties affected by cover crops under no-tillage system

The use of cover crops in no-tillage systems (NTS) can significantly improve the soil's fertility. Thus, a study was performed to evaluate changes in chemical properties of soil caused by cover crops in a no-tillage system. The field experiment consisted of the following crop rotation: cover crops/rice/cover crops/rice. The experimental design was in randomized blocks with three replications. Treatments consisted of four cover crops (Brachiaria brizantha(Hochst. ex A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. Marandu, Brachiaria ruziziensis R. Germ. and C.M. Evrard, Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. Colonião, and Pennisetum glaucum(L.) R. Br. cv. BN-2) and fallow (control treatment). Soil samples were collected at the beginning of the summer crop in Oct 2007, Oct 2008 and Oct 2009 at 0-5 cm soil depth. The use of cover crops provided for a significant increase in the level of nutrients, soil organic matter, cation exchange capacity, and base saturation in the soil. Soil fertility improved from the first to second year with the growing of cover crops. The soil under cover crops P. glaucum, B. ruziziensis, and B. brizantha showed higher fertility than the area under fallow.

Dependence relationship between the critical quality factors and social impact

This paper shows the results of the empirical study conducted in 186 tourist accommodation businesses in Spain certified under the "Q for Tourist Quality", own System Quality Management. It was raised with the purpose of analyzing the structure of the relationship between critical quality factors and results-social impact, how they operate and the level of their influence on obtaining these results within the company. Starting from a deep theoretical revision we propose a theoretical model together with the hypotheses to be tested, and we proceed to validation using the technique of Structural Equation Models. The results obtained show that companies wishing to improve their social impact should take into account that leadership is the most important factor to achieve it. Leadership indirectly affects the social impact through its influence on alliances and resources, quality policy/planning, personnel management and learning.

Green microfinance: the case of the Cresol System in Southern Brazil

Climate change which until recently seemed a luxury for the microfinance sector, now appears to be crucial for the future of the sector. Due to their low adaptive capacity, the millions of MF clients worldwide happen to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate. Adapting previous analysis conducted in Nepal and Bangladesh by Agrawala and Maëlis (2010) to the Brazilian context, in this inductive qualitative study we aim to assess potential synergies between MF and CC actions and what strategies can be harnessed to better respond to CC vulnerabilities at client/MF level. To do so, we investigated the case of the second largest rural microcredit programme in Brazil, Sistema Cresol de Cooperativas de Crédito Rural com Interação Solidária. Albeit important overlaps between Cresol's product envelope and CC strategies exist, there is still room to realise synergies to both mitigate a new potential source of risk to Cresol's portfolio and to increase clients' adaptive capacity.

Determinants of vaccination after the Colombian health system reform

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of individual, household and healthcare system factors on poor children's use of vaccination after the reform of the Colombian health system. METHODS: A household survey was carried out in a random sample of insured poor population in Bogota, in 1999. The conceptual and analytical framework was based on the Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization. It considers two units of analysis for studying vaccination use and its determinants: the insured poor population, including the children and their families characteristics; and the health care system. Statistical analysis were carried out by chi-square test with 95% confidence intervals, multivariate regression models and Cronbach's alpha coefficient. RESULTS: The logistic regression analysis showed that vaccination use was related not only to population characteristics such as family size (OR=4.3), living area (OR=1.7), child's age (OR=0.7) and head-of-household's years of schooling (OR=0.5), but also strongly related to health care system features, such as having a regular health provider (OR=6.0) and information on providers' schedules and requirements for obtaining care services (OR=2.1). CONCLUSIONS: The low vaccination use and the relevant relationships to health care delivery systems characteristics show that there are barriers in the healthcare system, which should be assessed and eliminated. Non-availability of regular healthcare and deficient information to the population are factors that can limit service utilization.

Homicide and impunity: an ecological analysis at state level in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.

Performance evaluation of hospitals that provide care in the public health system, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze if size, administrative level, legal status, type of unit and educational activity influence the hospital network performance in providing services to the Brazilian Unified Health System.METHODS This cross-sectional study evaluated data from the Hospital Information System and the Cadastro Nacional de Estabelecimentos de Saúde (National Registry of Health Facilities), 2012, in Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. We calculated performance indicators, such as: the ratio of hospital employees per bed; mean amount paid for admission; bed occupancy rate; average length of stay; bed turnover index and hospital mortality rate. Data were expressed as mean and standard deviation. The groups were compared using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Bonferroni correction.RESULTS The hospital occupancy rate in small hospitals was lower than in medium, big and special-sized hospitals. Higher hospital occupancy rate and bed turnover index were observed in hospitals that include education in their activities. The hospital mortality rate was lower in specialized hospitals compared to general ones, despite their higher proportion of highly complex admissions. We found no differences between hospitals in the direct and indirect administration for most of the indicators analyzed.CONCLUSIONS The study indicated the importance of the scale effect on efficiency, and larger hospitals had a higher performance. Hospitals that include education in their activities had a higher operating performance, albeit with associated importance of using human resources and highly complex structures. Specialized hospitals had a significantly lower rate of mortality than general hospitals, indicating the positive effect of the volume of procedures and technology used on clinical outcomes. The analysis related to the administrative level and legal status did not show any significant performance differences between the categories of public hospitals.

Health self-assessment by hemodialysis patients in the Brazilian Unified Health System

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To examine whether the level of complexity of the services structure and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of patients in hemodialysis are associated with the prevalence of poor health self-assessment. METHODS In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated 1,621 patients with chronic terminal kidney disease on hemodialysis accompanied in 81 dialysis services in the Brazilian Unified Health System in 2007. Sampling was performed by conglomerate in two stages and a structured questionnaire was applied to participants. Multilevel multiple logistic regression was used for data analysis. RESULTS The prevalence of poor health self-assessment was of 54.5%, and in multivariable analysis it was associated with the following variables: increasing age (OR = 1.02; 95%CI 1.01–1.02), separated or divorced marital status (OR = 0.62; 95%CI 0.34–0.88), having 12 years or more of study (OR = 0.51; 95%CI 0.37–0.71), spending more than 60 minutes in commuting between home and the dialysis service (OR = 1.80; 95%CI 1.29–2.51), having three or more self-referred diseases (OR = 2.20; 95%CI 1.33–3.62), and reporting some (OR = 2.17; 95%CI 1.66–2.84) or a lot of (OR = 2.74; 95%CI 2.04–3.68) trouble falling asleep. Individuals in treatment in dialysis services with the highest level of complexity in the structure presented less chance of performing a self-assessment of their health as bad (OR = 0.59; 95%CI 0.42–0.84). CONCLUSIONS We showed poor health self-assessment is associated with age, years of formal education, marital status, home commuting time to the dialysis service, number of self-referred diseases, report of trouble sleeping, and also with the level of complexity of the structure of health services. Acknowledging these factors can contribute to the development of strategies to improve the health of patients in hemodialysis in the Brazilian Unified Health System.