Macroinvertebrates under stochastic hydrological disturbance in Cerrado streams of Central Brazil

In the Cerrado vegetation, where the seasonal is well defined, rainfall has an important role in controlling the flow of streams and consequently on the structure of macroinvertebrates community. Despite the effects of rainfall associated with seasonality are well studied, little is known about the effects of stochastic rains on the community. In the present study we evaluated the structure and faunal composition of four first-order streams in Central Brazil during the dry season in two years, with and without stochastic rains. Community sampling was done by colonization of boards of high density polyethylene (HDPE), removed after one month submerged in streams. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) performed indicated no difference in rarefied richness between the two periods, different from numeric density of organisms that was higher in the period without disturbance; moreover, the Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) revealed differences in faunal composition between the two periods. Our results indicate that stochastic rainfall is an important factor in structuring the macroinvertebrates community in studied region.

Solvability of mental health care in the Family Health Strategy: social representation of professionals and users

Objective To aprehend the social representations about the solvability in mental health care with users of the Family Health Strategy and professionals of family health teams and of the Center for Psychosocial Care. Method A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews for data collection, and the Alceste software for analysis. This software uses the Hierarchical Descending Classification based on the examination of lexical roots, considering the words as units and providing context in the corpus. Results The representations emerge in two opposing poles: the users require satisfaction with care and the professionals realize the need for improvement of health actions. Although the matricial support in mental health and the home visits are developed, the barriers related to investment in health, continuing education and organization of care persist. Conclusion The different representations enable improvements in customer service, solvability of care and aggregate knowledge and practices in the expanded perspective of health needs in the family, social and therapeutic context.


Social representation of domestic violence against women among Nursing Technicians and Community Agents

OBJECTIVE To analyze the social representations of the Nursing Technicians and Community Health Agents about domestic violence against women. METHOD A qualitative study carried out in the city of Rio Grande, RS, in which evocations and interviews were collected between July and November 2013. For the treatment of data were used the EVOC 2005 software and the context analysis. RESULT It is a structured representation, in which the central nucleus contains conceptual, imaging and attitudinal elements, namely: abuse, aggression, physical aggression, cowardice and lack of respect. Such terms were present in the context of the interviews. The professionals acknowledged that violence is not limited to physical aspects and were judgemental about the acts of the aggressor. CONCLUSION This knowledge may enable the problematization of the studied phenomenon with the team, and facilitate the search for prevention and intervention strategies for victims, offenders and managers of health services.

Social representation of Alzheimer's disease for family caregivers: stressful and rewarding

Abstract OBJECTIVE To understand the content of Social Representation (SR) of family caregivers of Alzheimer's disease patients. METHOD Interviews were conducted with 26 caregivers and analyzed by the ALCESTE software. RESULTS The SR content was structured in two thematic axes called Daily Life and Care and Medical and Emotional Concepts and Outcomes. The first axis creates images related to the routine of interaction with the sick person, and contains a description of care procedures, experiences, and practices applied every day. The second is composed of subjective and conceptual aspects that make up the social representation of Alzheimer's disease, with meanings related to the emotional, medical, and biological contexts. CONCLUSION Due to the importance of topics related to patients' dependence and the personal and emotional consequences of the disease, overload is the main content of the SR of Alzheimer's disease for caregivers, and the understanding of these SR by health professionals should support the planning of interventions addressing this group of individuals.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

PRACTICAL STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR CHEMICAL KINETICS

The Practical Stochastic Model is a simple and robust method to describe coupled chemical reactions. The connection between this stochastic method and a deterministic method was initially established to understand how the parameters and variables that describe the concentration in both methods were related. It was necessary to define two main concepts to make this connection: the filling of compartments or dilutions and the rate of reaction enhancement. The parameters, variables, and the time of the stochastic methods were scaled with the size of the compartment and were compared with a deterministic method. The deterministic approach was employed as an initial reference to achieve a consistent stochastic result. Finally, an independent robust stochastic method was obtained. This method could be compared with the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm developed by Gillespie, 1977. The Practical Stochastic Model produced absolute values that were essential to describe non-linear chemical reactions with a simple structure, and allowed for a correct description of the chemical kinetics.

Models, truth and realism: assessing Bas van Fraassen's views on scientific representation

This paper is devoted to an analysis of some aspects of Bas van Fraassen's views on representation. While I agree with most of his claims, I disagree on the following three issues. Firstly, I contend that some isomorphism (or at least homomorphism) between the representor and what is represented is a universal necessary condition for the success of any representation, even in the case of misrepresentation. Secondly, I argue that the so-called "semantic" or "model-theoretic" construal of theories does not give proper due to the role played by true propositions in successful representing practices. Thirdly, I attempt to show that the force of van Fraassen's pragmatic - and antirealist - "dissolution" of the "loss of reality objection" loses its bite when we realize that our cognitive contact with real phenomena is achieved not by representing but by expressing true propositions about them.

A Well Stated Time Domain Integral Representation for Elastodynamic Analysis and Applications

This article discusses three possible ways to derive time domain boundary integral representations for elastodynamics. This discussion points out possible difficulties found when using those formulations to deal with practical applications. The discussion points out recommendations to select the convenient integral representation to deal with elastodynamic problems and opens the possibility of deriving simplified schemes. The proper way to take into account initial conditions applied to the body is an interesting topict shown. It illustrates the main differences between the discussed boundary integral representation expressions, their singularities and possible numerical problems. The correct way to use collocation points outside the analyzed domain is carefully described. Some applications are shown at the end of the paper, in order to demonstrate the capabilities of the technique when properly used.

Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.