Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

Adherence and perceptions regarding simulation training in undergraduate health Sciences

BACKGROUND: Simulation techniques are spreading rapidly in medicine. Suc h resources are increasingly concentrated in Simulation Laboratories. The MSRP-USP is structuring such a laboratory and is interested in the prevalence of individual initiatives that could be centralized there. The MSRP-USP currently has five full-curriculum courses in the health sciences: Medicine, Speech Therapy, Physical Therapy, Nutrition, and Occupational Therapy, all consisting of core disciplines. GOAL: To determine the prevalence of simulation techniques in the regular courses at MSRP-USP. METHODS: Coordinators of disciplines in the various courses were interviewed using a specifically designed semi-structured questionnaire, and all the collected data were stored in a dedicated database. The disciplines were grouped according to whether they used (GI) or did not use (GII) simulation resources. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: 256 disciplines were analyzed, of which only 18.3% used simulation techniques, varying according to course: Medicine (24.7.3%), Occupational Therapy (23.0%), Nutrition (15.9%), Physical Therapy (9.8%), and Speech Therapy (9.1%). Computer simulation programs predominated (42.5%) in all five courses. The resources were provided mainly by MSRP-USP (56.3%), with additional funding coming from other sources based on individual initiatives. The same pattern was observed for maintenance. There was great interest in centralizing the resources in the new Simulation Laboratory in order to facilitate maintenance, but there was concern about training and access to the material. CONCLUSIONS: 1) The MSRP-USP simulation resources show low complexity and are mainly limited to computer programs; 2) Use of simulation varies according to course, and is most prevalent in Medicine; 3) Resources are scattered across several locations, and their acquisition and maintenance depend on individual initiatives rather than central coordination or curricular guidelines

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Uma perspectiva computacional sobre catálise enzimática

Enzymes are extremely efficient catalysts. Here, part of the mechanisms proposed to explain this catalytic power will be compared to quantitative experimental results and computer simulations. Influence of the enzymatic environment over species along the reaction coordinate will be analysed. Concepts of transition state stabilisation and reactant destabilisation will be confronted. Divided site model and near-attack conformation hypotheses will also be discussed. Molecular interactions such as covalent catalysis, general acid-base catalysis, electrostatics, entropic effects, steric hindrance, quantum and dynamical effects will also be analysed as sources of catalysis. Reaction mechanisms, in particular that catalysed by protein tyrosine phosphatases, illustrate the concepts.

Propriedades eletrônicas, estruturais e constantes elásticas do ZnO

The electronic, structural properties and elastic constants of the wurtzite phase of zinc oxide, ZnO, was investigated using computer simulation at Density Functional Theory level, with B3LYP hybrid functional and Hartree-Fock methodology. The electronic properties as well the band energy was investigated through the analysis of the band structures and density of states (DOS), and the mechanical properties was studied through the calculus of the elastic constants C11, C33, C44, C12 e C13. The results are in good agreement with experimental data found in the literature and in accordance with results obtained by another theoretical methodology.

Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

The development and evaluation of a distance learning system in ophthalmology

INTRODUCTION: Web-based e-learning is a teaching tool increasingly used in many medical schools and specialist fields, including ophthalmology. AIMS: this pilot study aimed to develop internet-based course-based clinical cases and to evaluate the effectiveness of this method within a graduate medical education group. METHODS: this was an interventional randomized study. First, a website was built using a distance learning platform. Sixteen first-year ophthalmology residents were then divided into two randomized groups: one experimental group, which was submitted to the intervention (use of the e-learning site) and another control group, which was not submitted to the intervention. The students answered a printed clinical case and their scores were compared. RESULTS: there was no statistically significant difference between the groups. CONCLUSION: We were able to successfully develop the e-learning site and the respective clinical cases. Despite the fact that there was no statistically significant difference between the access and the non access group, the study was a pioneer in our department, since a clinical case online program had never previously been developed.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Electrically driven fertilizer applicator controlled by fuzzy logic

The present study shows the development, simulation and actual implementation of a closed-loop controller based on fuzzy logic that is able to regulate and standardize the mass flow of a helical fertilizer applicator. The control algorithm was developed using MATLAB's Fuzzy Logic Toolbox. Both open and closed-loop simulations of the controller were performed in MATLAB's Simulink environment. The instantaneous deviation of the mass flow from the set point (SP), its derivative, the equipment´s translation velocity and acceleration were all used as input signals for the controller, whereas the voltage of the applicator's DC electric motor (DCEM) was driven by the controller as output signal. Calibration and validation of the rules and membership functions of the fuzzy logic were accomplished in the computer simulation phase, taking into account the system's response to SP changes. The mass flow variation coefficient, measured in experimental tests, ranged from 6.32 to 13.18%. The steady state error fell between -0.72 and 0.13g s-1 and the recorded average rise time of the system was 0.38 s. The implemented controller was able to both damp the oscillations in mass flow that are characteristic of helical fertilizer applicators, and to effectively respond to SP variations.

The succession dynamics of a macroalgal community after a flood disturbance in a tropical stream from São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil

The succession dynamics of a macroalgal community in a tropical stream (20º58' S and 49º25' W) was investigated after disturbance by a sequence of intensive rains. High precipitation levels caused almost complete loss of the macroalgal community attached to the substratum and provided a strong pressure against its immediate re-establishment. After this disturbance, a weekly sampling program from May 1999 to January 2000 was established to investigate macroalgal recolonization. The community changed greatly throughout the succession process. The number of species varied from one to seven per sampling. Global abundance of macroalgal community did not reveal a consistent temporal pattern of variation. In early succession stages, the morphological form of tufts dominated, followed by unbranched filaments. Latter succession stages showed the almost exclusive occurrence of gelatinous forms, including filaments and colonies. The succession trajectory was mediated by phosphorus availability in which community composition followed a scheme of changes in growth forms. However, we believe that deterministic and stochastic processes occur in lotic ecosystems, but they are dependent on the length of time considered in the succession analyses.

Incerteza e não ergodicidade: crítica aos neoclássicos

The starting point of this essay is to show that, in our view, the problem of the traditional economics is not in the deductive method nor the mathematical methods used, but to attribute to economic agents "power" on the future and prescribe the existence of ergodic stochastic processes in their economic analyzes. Thus, building a theory on the ground whose bases are not able to sustain a proper understanding of the world, mainstream economics has difficulties in using the modeling for establishing deductions and conclusions that help understanding the system. Thus, the logical-mathematical rigor in economic models and deduction can be used with appropriate axioms, which is not the case of mainstream economics. Our hypothesis is that the inability of the mainstream in predicting economic crisis is due to the non-recognition of some principles that best describe the dynamics of financialized contemporary capitalism, as the principles of non-ergodicity and Keynesian uncertainty.