Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

The succession dynamics of a macroalgal community after a flood disturbance in a tropical stream from São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil

The succession dynamics of a macroalgal community in a tropical stream (20º58' S and 49º25' W) was investigated after disturbance by a sequence of intensive rains. High precipitation levels caused almost complete loss of the macroalgal community attached to the substratum and provided a strong pressure against its immediate re-establishment. After this disturbance, a weekly sampling program from May 1999 to January 2000 was established to investigate macroalgal recolonization. The community changed greatly throughout the succession process. The number of species varied from one to seven per sampling. Global abundance of macroalgal community did not reveal a consistent temporal pattern of variation. In early succession stages, the morphological form of tufts dominated, followed by unbranched filaments. Latter succession stages showed the almost exclusive occurrence of gelatinous forms, including filaments and colonies. The succession trajectory was mediated by phosphorus availability in which community composition followed a scheme of changes in growth forms. However, we believe that deterministic and stochastic processes occur in lotic ecosystems, but they are dependent on the length of time considered in the succession analyses.

Incerteza e não ergodicidade: crítica aos neoclássicos

The starting point of this essay is to show that, in our view, the problem of the traditional economics is not in the deductive method nor the mathematical methods used, but to attribute to economic agents "power" on the future and prescribe the existence of ergodic stochastic processes in their economic analyzes. Thus, building a theory on the ground whose bases are not able to sustain a proper understanding of the world, mainstream economics has difficulties in using the modeling for establishing deductions and conclusions that help understanding the system. Thus, the logical-mathematical rigor in economic models and deduction can be used with appropriate axioms, which is not the case of mainstream economics. Our hypothesis is that the inability of the mainstream in predicting economic crisis is due to the non-recognition of some principles that best describe the dynamics of financialized contemporary capitalism, as the principles of non-ergodicity and Keynesian uncertainty.

Yield and nutrition of sunflower fertilized with sewage sludge stabilized by different processes

The different methods of sewage sludge stabilization modify their physical chemical and biological properties, altering its efficiency when applied in agriculture. The objective of this study was to evaluate the nutrient levels in soil and the yield of sunflower fertilized with sewage sludge stabilized by different processes. The experiment was conducted in Cambisol, with the treatments: control (without fertilization), fertilization with sewage sludge solarized, composted, vermicomposted, limed and chemical fertilizer recommended for sunflower crop. The experimental design a randomized block with four replications. The different methods of sewage sludge treatment did not affect the yield; however, the application of sewage sludge, regardless the stabilization process adopted, was more effective than chemical fertilizer and the control treatment. Overall, fertilization with limed sewage sludge provided higher soil nutrients concentrations, while treatments with composted and vermicomposted sewage sludge showed higher levels of nutrients in the plant.

How middle managers contribute to strategy formation process: connection of strategy processes and strategy practices

The role of middle management is essential when managing integrative and emergent strategy formation processes. We stand out the importance of its role connecting micro and macro organizational level offering a very important contribution when examining the strategy-as-practice perspective and integrative strategy formation process. The main goal of this research is to analyse the relationship between the integrative strategy formation process and the roles of middle management under the strategy-as-practice perspective. To check it out we adopted a qualitative methodology droving a case analysis in a Spanish University. Data was collected by means of personal interviews with members of different levels of the Institution, documents analysis and direct observation. In advance of some results we find out that the University develops an integrative strategy formation process and confers to middle management an important role extended all over the organization.

Lysotypes and plasmidial profile of Salmonella Serovar Typhimurium isolated from children with enteric processes in the cities of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, and Salvador, BA - Brazil

The lysotypes, plasmidial profiles, and profiles of resistance to antimicrobial agents were determined in 111 Salmonella Typhimurium strains isolated from feces and blood of children treated in Rio de Janeiro and in Salvador. Six distinct lysotypes (19, 41, 97, 105, 120 and 193) were recognized, with a predominance of lysotype 193 (59.7%) in Rio de Janeiro and of phage type 105 (38.4) in Salvador. Approximately 86.7% of the lysotype 193 strains presented multiple resistance to more than six antimicrobial agents, whereas 93% of lysotype 105 strains were fully susceptible. More than 90% of the strains presented plasmids distributed into 36 different profiles in Rio de Janeiro and into 10 profiles in Salvador. A 40 MDa plasmid was the most frequent (47%) in the strains from Rio de Janeiro, whereas a 61 MDa plasmid predominated (14.5%) in Salvador. Combined analysis of plasmid profile and classification into lysotypes (especially those belonging to types 105 and 103, proved to be more discriminatory than the other methods applied).

Cognitive processes affect the gait of subjects with Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s disease in dual tasks

Objective To investigate the relation between gait parameters and cognitive impairments in subjects with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) during the performance of dual tasks. Methods This was a cross-sectional study involving 126 subjects divided into three groups: Parkinson group (n = 43), Alzheimer group (n = 38), and control group (n = 45). The subjects were evaluated using the Timed Up and Go test administered with motor and cognitive distracters. Gait analyses consisted of cadence and speed measurements, with cognitive functions being assessed by the Brief Cognitive Screening Battery and the Clock Drawing Test. Statistical procedures included mixed-design analyses of variance to observe the gait patterns between groups and tasks and the linear regression model to investigate the influence of cognitive functions in this process. A 5% significant level was adopted. Results Regarding the subjects’ speed, the data show a significant difference between group vs task interaction (p = 0.009), with worse performance of subjects with PD in motor dual task and of subjects with AD in cognitive dual task. With respect to cadence, no statistical differences was seen between group vs task interaction (p = 0.105), showing low interference of the clinical conditions on such parameter. The linear regression model showed that up to 45.79%, of the variance in gait can be explained by the interference of cognitive processes. Conclusion Dual task activities affect gait pattern in subjects with PD and AD. Differences between groups reflect peculiarities of each disease and show a direct interference of cognitive processes on complex tasks.

Macroinvertebrates under stochastic hydrological disturbance in Cerrado streams of Central Brazil

In the Cerrado vegetation, where the seasonal is well defined, rainfall has an important role in controlling the flow of streams and consequently on the structure of macroinvertebrates community. Despite the effects of rainfall associated with seasonality are well studied, little is known about the effects of stochastic rains on the community. In the present study we evaluated the structure and faunal composition of four first-order streams in Central Brazil during the dry season in two years, with and without stochastic rains. Community sampling was done by colonization of boards of high density polyethylene (HDPE), removed after one month submerged in streams. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) performed indicated no difference in rarefied richness between the two periods, different from numeric density of organisms that was higher in the period without disturbance; moreover, the Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) revealed differences in faunal composition between the two periods. Our results indicate that stochastic rainfall is an important factor in structuring the macroinvertebrates community in studied region.

Nitric oxide as a regulator of inflammatory processes

Nitric oxide (NO) plays an important role in mediating many aspects of inflammatory responses. NO is an effector molecule of cellular injury, and can act as an anti-oxidant. It can modulate the release of various inflammatory mediators from a wide range of cells participating in inflammatory responses (e.g., leukocytes, macrophages, mast cells, endothelial cells, and platelets). It can modulate blood flow, adhesion of leukocytes to the vascular endothelium and the activity of numerous enzymes, all of which can have an impact on inflammatory responses. In recent years, NO-releasing drugs have been developed, usually as derivatives of other drugs, which exhibit very powerful anti-inflammatory effects.

Hydrological processes obtained on the plot scale under four simulated rainfall tests during the cycle of different crop systems

The cropping system influences the interception of water by plants, water storage in depressions on the soil surface, water infiltration into the soil and runoff. The aim of this study was to quantify some hydrological processes under no tillage cropping systems at the edge of a slope, in 2009 and 2010, in a Humic Dystrudept soil, with the following treatments: corn, soybeans, and common beans alone; and intercropped corn and common bean. Treatments consisted of four simulated rainfall tests at different times, with a planned intensity of 64 mm h-1 and 90 min duration. The first test was applied 18 days after sowing, and the others at 39, 75 and 120 days after the first test. Different times of the simulated rainfall and stages of the crop cycle affected soil water content prior to the rain, and the time runoff began and its peak flow and, thus, the surface hydrological processes. The depth of the runoff and the depth of the water intercepted by the crop + soil infiltration + soil surface storage were affected by the crop systems and the rainfall applied at different times. The corn crop was the most effective treatment for controlling runoff, with a water loss ratio of 0.38, equivalent to 75 % of the water loss ratio exhibited by common bean (0.51), the least effective treatment in relation to the others. Total water loss by runoff decreased linearly with an increase in the time that runoff began, regardless of the treatment; however, soil water content on the gravimetric basis increased linearly from the beginning to the end of the rainfall.

Selection processes in a citrus hybrid population using RAPD markers

The objective of this work was to evaluate the processes of selection in a citrus hybrid population using segregation analysis of RAPD markers. The segregation of 123 RAPD markers between 'Cravo' mandarin (Citrus reticulata Blanco) and 'Pêra' sweet orange (C. sinensis (L.) Osbeck) was analysed in a F1 progeny of 94 hybrids. Genetic composition, diversity, heterozygosity, differences in chromosomal structure and the presence of deleterious recessive genes are discussed based on the segregation ratios obtained. A high percentage of markers had a skeweness of the 1:1 expected segregation ratio in the F1 population. Many markers showed a 3:1 segregation ratio in both varieties and 1:3 in 'Pêra' sweet orange, probably due to directional selection processes. The distribution analysis of the frequencies of the segregant markers in a hybrid population is a simple method which allows a better understanding of the genetics of citrus group.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Electrochemistry and green chemical processes: electrochemical ozone production

After an introductory discussion emphasising the importance of electrochemistry for the so-called Green Chemical Processes, the article presents a short discussion of the classical ozone generation technologies. Next a revision of the electrochemical ozone production technology focusing on such aspects as: fundamentals, latest advances, advantages and limitations of this technology is presented. Recent results about fundamentals of electrochemical ozone production obtained in our laboratory, using different electrode materials (e.g. boron doped diamond electrodes, lead dioxide and DSAÒ-based electrodes) also are presented. Different chemical processes of interest to the solution of environmental problems involving ozone are discussed.