Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the State Of Goiás, Brazil

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering, simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90 percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.

Gas-solid two-phase flow in the riser of circulating fluidized beds: mathematical modelling and numerical simulation

A mathematical model is developed for gas-solids flows in circulating fluidized beds. An Eulerian formulation is followed based on the two-fluids model approach where both the fluid and the particulate phases are treated as a continuum. The physical modelling is discussed, including the formulation of boundary conditions and the description of the numerical methodology. Results of numerical simulation are presented and discussed. The model is validated through comparison to experiment, and simulation is performed to investigate the effects on the flow hydrodynamics of the solids viscosity.

Numerical procedure for estimating temperature in solarized soils

The objective of this work was to develop a simplified numerical procedure for the estimation of accumulated monthly hours of solarized soil temperatures. The proposed model requires monthly means of daily solar radiation and maximum air temperature as input data, and a daily pattern of temperature variation assumed to be sine-shaped. The procedure was verified using observations made during the years 1992 and 1993 in Jaguariúna, SP. The proposed procedure can predict monthly temperature hours at 10 cm depth in the solarized soil, with acceptable accuracy, in the region for which it was developed.

An experimental/numerical study of the turbulent boundary layer development along a surface with a sudden change in roughness

A theory for the description of turbulent boundary layer flows over surfaces with a sudden change in roughness is considered. The theory resorts to the concept of displacement in origin to specify a wall function boundary condition for a kappa-epsilon model. An approximate algebraic expression for the displacement in origin is obtained from the experimental data by using the chart method of Perry and Joubert(J.F.M., vol. 17, pp. 193-122, 1963). This expression is subsequently included in the near wall logarithmic velocity profile, which is then adopted as a boundary condition for a kappa-epsilon modelling of the external flow. The results are compared with the lower atmospheric observations made by Bradley(Q. J. Roy. Meteo. Soc., vol. 94, pp. 361-379, 1968) as well as with velocity profiles extracted from a set of wind tunnel experiments carried out by Avelino et al.( 7th ENCIT, 1998). The measurements are found to be in good agreement with the theoretical computations. The skin-friction coefficient was calculated according to the chart method of Perry and Joubert(J.F.M., vol. 17, pp. 193-122, 1963) and to a balance of the integral momentum equation. In particular, the growth of the internal boundary layer thickness obtained from the numerical simulation is compared with predictions of the experimental data calculated by two methods, the "knee" point method and the "merge" point method.

Accuracy of modelling and identification of malfunctions in rotor systems: experimental results

The accuracy of modelling of rotor systems composed of rotors, oil film bearings and a flexible foundation, is evaluated and discussed in this paper. The model validation of different models has been done by comparing experimental results with numerical results by means. The experimental data have been obtained with a fully instrumented four oil film bearing, two shafts test rig. The fault models are then used in the frame of a model based malfunction identification procedure, based on a least square fitting approach applied in the frequency domain. The capability of distinguishing different malfunctions has been investigated, even if they can create similar effects (such as unbalance, rotor bow, coupling misalignment and others) from shaft vibrations measured in correspondence of the bearings.

Fluid dynamic modelling and simulation of circulating fluidized bed reactors: importance of the interface turbulence transfer

The main objective of this work is to analyze the importance of the gas-solid interface transfer of the kinetic energy of the turbulent motion on the accuracy of prediction of the fluid dynamic of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) reactors. CFB reactors are used in a variety of industrial applications related to combustion, incineration and catalytic cracking. In this work a two-dimensional fluid dynamic model for gas-particle flow has been used to compute the porosity, the pressure, and the velocity fields of both phases in 2-D axisymmetrical cylindrical co-ordinates. The fluid dynamic model is based on the two fluid model approach in which both phases are considered to be continuous and fully interpenetrating. CFB processes are essentially turbulent. The model of effective stress on each phase is that of a Newtonian fluid, where the effective gas viscosity was calculated from the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and the transport coefficients of the particulate phase were calculated from the kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). This work shows that the turbulence transfer between the phases is very important for a better representation of the fluid dynamics of CFB reactors, especially for systems with internal recirculation and high gradients of particle concentration. Two systems with different characteristics were analyzed. The results were compared with experimental data available in the literature. The results were obtained by using a computer code developed by the authors. The finite volume method with collocated grid, the hybrid interpolation scheme, the false time step strategy and SIMPLEC (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations - Consistent) algorithm were used to obtain the numerical solution.

Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis) and spatially (place of residence) in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14). The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

Validity of the Brazilian version of WHOQOL-BREF in depressed patients using Rasch modelling

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of the Brazilian version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life Instrument - Abbreviated version (WHOQOL-BREF) in adults with major depression, using Rasch modelling. METHODS: Study analyzing data from the baseline sample of the Longitudinal Investigation of Depression Outcomes in Brazil, including a total of 208 patients with major depression recruited in a primary care service in Porto Alegre (Southern Brazil), in 1999. The Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale was used to assess intensity of depression; the WHOQOL-BREF to assess generic quality of life; and the Composite International Diagnostic Interview version 2.1 for the diagnosis of depression. RESULTS: In the Rasch analysis, the four domains of WHOQOL-BREF showed appropriate fit to this model. Some items needed adjustments: four items were rescored (pain, finances, services, and transport); two items (work and activity) were identified as having dependency of responses, and one item was deleted (sleep) due to multidimensionality. CONCLUSIONS: The validation of the WHOQOL-BREF Brazilian version using Rasch analysis complements previous validation studies, evidencing the robustness of this instrument as a generic cross-cultural quality of life measure.

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of unsafe abortion in Brazil, 1996-2012

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends and distribution patterns of unsafe abortion in Brazil. METHODS Ecological study based on records of hospital admissions of women due to abortion in Brazil between 1996 and 2012, obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Ministry of Health. We estimated the number of unsafe abortions stratified by place of residence, using indirect estimate techniques. The following indicators were calculated: ratio of unsafe abortions/100 live births and rate of unsafe abortion/1,000 women of childbearing age. We analyzed temporal trends through polynomial regression and spatial distribution using municipalities as the unit of analysis. RESULTS In the study period, a total of 4,007,327 hospital admissions due to abortions were recorded in Brazil. We estimated a total of 16,905,911 unsafe abortions in the country, with an annual mean of 994,465 abortions (mean unsafe abortion rate: 17.0 abortions/1,000 women of childbearing age; ratio of unsafe abortions: 33.2/100 live births). Unsafe abortion presented a declining trend at national level (R2: 94.0%, p < 0.001), with unequal patterns between regions. There was a significant reduction of unsafe abortion in the Northeast (R2: 93.0%, p < 0.001), Southeast (R2: 92.0%, p < 0.001) and Central-West regions (R2: 64.0%, p < 0.001), whereas the North (R2: 39.0%, p = 0.030) presented an increase, and the South (R2: 22.0%, p = 0.340) remained stable. Spatial analysis identified the presence of clusters of municipalities with high values for unsafe abortion, located mainly in states of the North, Northeast and Southeast Regions. CONCLUSIONS Unsafe abortion remains a public health problem in Brazil, with marked regional differences, mainly concentrated in the socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country. Qualification of attention to women’s health, especially to reproductive aspects and attention to pre- and post-abortion processes, are necessary and urgent strategies to be implemented in the country.

Electrophoretic protein patterns and numerical analysis of Candida albicans from the oral cavities of healthy children

The aim of this research was to evaluate the protein polymorphism degree among seventy-five C. albicans strains from healthy children oral cavities of five socioeconomic categories from eight schools (private and public) in Piracicaba city, São Paulo State, in order to identify C. albicans subspecies and their similarities in infantile population groups and to establish their possible dissemination route. Cell cultures were grown in YEPD medium, collected by centrifugation, and washed with cold saline solution. The whole-cell proteins were extracted by cell disruption, using glass beads and submitted to SDS-PAGE technique. After electrophoresis, the protein bands were stained with Coomassie-blue and analyzed by statistics package NTSYS-pc version 1.70 software. Similarity matrix and dendrogram were generated by using the Dice similarity coefficient and UPGMA algorithm, respectively, which made it possible to evaluate the similarity or intra-specific polymorphism degrees, based on whole-cell protein fingerprinting of C. albicans oral isolates. A total of 13 major phenons (clusters) were analyzed, according to their homogeneous (socioeconomic category and/or same school) and heterogeneous (distinct socioeconomic categories and/or schools) characteristics. Regarding to the social epidemiological aspect, the cluster composition showed higher similarities (0.788 < S D < 1.0) among C. albicans strains isolated from healthy children independent of their socioeconomic bases (high, medium, or low). Isolates of high similarity were not found in oral cavities from healthy children of social stratum A and D, B and D, or C and E. This may be explained by an absence of a dissemination route among these children. Geographically, some healthy children among identical and different schools (private and public) also are carriers of similar strains but such similarity was not found among other isolates from children from certain schools. These data may reflect a restricted dissemination route of these microorganisms in some groups of healthy scholars, which may be dependent of either socioeconomic categories or geographic site of each child. In contrast to the higher similarity, the lower similarity or higher polymorphism degree (0.499 < S D < 0.788) of protein profiles was shown in 23 (30.6%) C. albicans oral isolates. Considering the social epidemiological aspect, 42.1%, 41.7%, 26.6%, 23.5%, and 16.7% were isolates from children concerning to socioeconomic categories A, D, C, B, and E, respectively, and geographically, 63.6%, 50%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 30%, 25%, and 14.3% were isolates from children from schools LAE (Liceu Colégio Albert Einstein), MA (E.E.P.S.G. "Prof. Elias de Melo Ayres"), CS (E.E.P.G. "Prof. Carlos Sodero"), AV (Alphaville), HF (E.E.P.S.G. "Honorato Faustino), FMC (E.E.P.G. "Prof. Francisco Mariano da Costa"), and MEP (E.E.P.S.G. "Prof. Manasses Ephraim Pereira), respectively. Such results suggest a higher protein polymorphism degree among some strains isolated from healthy children independent of their socioeconomic strata or geographic sites. Complementary studies, involving healthy students and their families, teachers, servants, hygiene and nutritional habits must be done in order to establish the sources of such colonization patterns in population groups of healthy children. The whole-cell protein profile obtained by SDS-PAGE associated with computer-assisted numerical analysis may provide additional criteria for the taxonomic and epidemiological studies of C. albicans.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Modelling Amazonian forest eddy covariance data: a comparison of big leaf versus sun/shade models for the C-14 tower at Manaus I. Canopy photosynthesis

In this study, we concentrate on modelling gross primary productivity using two simple approaches to simulate canopy photosynthesis: "big leaf" and "sun/shade" models. Two approaches for calibration are used: scaling up of canopy photosynthetic parameters from the leaf to the canopy level and fitting canopy biochemistry to eddy covariance fluxes. Validation of the models is achieved by using eddy covariance data from the LBA site C14. Comparing the performance of both models we conclude that numerically (in terms of goodness of fit) and qualitatively, (in terms of residual response to different environmental variables) sun/shade does a better job. Compared to the sun/shade model, the big leaf model shows a lower goodness of fit and fails to respond to variations in the diffuse fraction, also having skewed responses to temperature and VPD. The separate treatment of sun and shade leaves in combination with the separation of the incoming light into direct beam and diffuse make sun/shade a strong modelling tool that catches more of the observed variability in canopy fluxes as measured by eddy covariance. In conclusion, the sun/shade approach is a relatively simple and effective tool for modelling photosynthetic carbon uptake that could be easily included in many terrestrial carbon models.

Spatio-temporal variation of the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis (Crustacea, Decapoda, Penaeidae) associated to the seasonal overture of the sandbar in a subtropical lagoon

On the southern Brazilian coast, the penaeid pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis (Pérez-Farfante, 1967) is intensively captured by both artisanal and industrial fisheries. In the Ibiraquera Lagoon, artisanal fishing of juvenile stocks has declined sharply over the last 15 years. The traditional management methods used by fishermen are no longer sustainable due to conflicts with the demands of tourism and weak environmental and public agencies. The dynamics of the timing of the artificial opening and natural reformation of a sandbar across the mouth of the lagoon are regarded as a central socio-ecological problem. We evaluated the abundance and biomass variation of F. paulensis throughout the year and along a spatial gradient measured from the sandbar into the lagoon. We also explored the influence of opening the sandbar on the shrimp population. Samples were collected monthly from February 2004 to February 2005, using a 27 mm mesh cast net, in four different areas, with three sites being sampled per area. Small numbers of large shrimps were captured in the upper area, while greater biomass and abundance of small shrimps were observed near the sandbar, suggesting the role of the inner area as a refuge for growing. The highest records for biomass and abundance were recorded during warm months, regardless if the lagoon was open or closed by the sandbar. The Ibiraquera Lagoon could be more productive for fishermen if the sandbar opening was coincident to the period of natural post-larvae influx. Furthermore, coastal stocks could be improved by opening the sandbar again during summer in conjunction with fishing quotas.

A study of the endocervical columnar cells II - effects of physiological changes and of oathological lesions of the uterus on the specific numerical composition of the endocervical epithelium

In the second part of this paper we nalysed the correlation between the clinical pathological alterations and the sum of the types of columnar cells of 300 histological sections of cervix. Fifty histological sections of normal cervix of sexually mature women were selected and considered as normal in pattern. The specific counts of the columnar cells which line the endocervical mucosa and those of the glands of 50 normal cervices were compared with other similar counts made in 50 histological sections of cervices of old women and emphasized the differences. Comparisons were made also between 50 normal cervices and 50 sections of cervices with chronic inflammation, 50 cervices with epidermoid metaplasia and 50 cervices with myoma of the corpus. Counts were made from 50 cervices of patients who on the occasion of the surgical operation were in the proliferative phase of the menstrual cycle; these were compared with the counts of 50 cervices of uteri in the luteal phase. Finally, the numerical frequency of the following data encountered in the 300 cervices was recorded: 1. aspects of the ectocervical epithelium; 2. number of Nabothian cysts; 3. number of cervical glands; 5. number of deliveries and 6. aspect of the material within the cervical canal.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.