97 resultados para Spatial Empirical bayes Smoothing

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in the municipality of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil, and to identify spatial and space-time clusters for the risk of occurrence of these events. METHODS This is a descriptive, ecological study that considered the hospitalizations records of the Hospital Information System of residents of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2012. Only the cases with recorded addresses were considered for the spatial analyses, and they were also geocoded. We resorted to Kernel density estimation to identify the densest areas, local empirical Bayes rate as the method for smoothing the incidence rates of hospital admissions, and scan statistic for identifying clusters of risk. Softwares ArcGis 10.2, TerraView 4.2.2, and SaTScanTM were used in the analysis. RESULTS We identified 169 hospitalizations due to tuberculosis. Most were of men (n = 134; 79.2%), averagely aged 48 years (SD = 16.2). The predominant clinical form was the pulmonary one, which was confirmed through a microscopic examination of expectorated sputum (n = 66; 39.0%). We geocoded 159 cases (94.0%). We observed a non-random spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis concentrated in the northern and western regions of the municipality. Through the scan statistic, three spatial clusters for risk of hospitalizations due to tuberculosis were identified, one of them in the northern region of the municipality (relative risk [RR] = 3.4; 95%CI 2.7–4,4); the second in the central region, where there is a prison unit (RR = 28.6; 95%CI 22.4–36.6); and the last one in the southern region, and area of protection for hospitalizations (RR = 0.2; 95%CI 0.2–0.3). We did not identify any space-time clusters. CONCLUSIONS The investigation showed priority areas for the control and surveillance of tuberculosis, as well as the profile of the affected population, which shows important aspects to be considered in terms of management and organization of health care services targeting effectiveness in primary health care.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of risk for tuberculosis and its socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.METHODS An ecological study on the association between the mean incidence rate of tuberculosis from 2004 to 2006 and socioeconomic indicators of the Censo Demográfico (Demographic Census) of 2000. The unit of analysis was the home district registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Notifiable Diseases Information System) of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. The rates were standardized by sex and age group, and smoothed by the empirical Bayes method. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by Moran’s I. Multiple linear regression models were studied and the appropriateness of incorporating the spatial component in modeling was evaluated.RESULTS We observed a higher risk of the disease in some neighborhoods of the port and north regions, as well as a high incidence in the slums of Rocinha and Vidigal, in the south region, and Cidade de Deus, in the west. The final model identified a positive association for the variables: percentage of permanent private households in which the head of the house earns three to five minimum wages; percentage of individual residents in the neighborhood; and percentage of people living in homes with more than two people per bedroom.CONCLUSIONS The spatial analysis identified areas of risk of tuberculosis incidence in the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro and also found spatial dependence for the incidence of tuberculosis and some socioeconomic variables. However, the inclusion of the space component in the final model was not required during the modeling process.

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INTRODUCTION: Leprosy in Brazil is a public health issue, and there are many regions in the State of Espírito Santo with high endemic incidence levels of leprosy, characterizing this state as a priority for leprosy programs. The aim of this study was to determine the spatial distribution of coefficients of new cases of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive and ecologic study based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo between 2004 and 2009. Data were gathered from the available records of the Espírito Santo State Health Secretary. The global and local Bayesian empirical methods were used to produce an estimate of leprosy risk, smoothing the fluctuation effects of the detection coefficients. RESULTS: The study resulted in a coefficient adjustment of new cases in 10 towns that changed their classification, among which, 2 went from low to medium, 4 from medium to high, 3 from high to very high, and 1 from very high to hyper-endemic. An average variation of 1.02, fluctuating between 0 and 12.39 cases/100,000 inhabitants, was found in a comparative calculation between the Local Ebest value and the average coefficient of new leprosy cases in the State of Espírito Santo. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis of leprosy favors the establishment of control strategies with a better cost-benefit relationship since it reveals specific and priority regions, thereby enabling the development of actions that can interfere in the transmission chain.

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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial patterns of leprosy in the Brazilian state of Tocantins. METHODS This study was based on morbidity data obtained from the Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN – Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System), of the Ministry of Health. All new leprosy cases in individuals residing in the state of Tocantins, between 2001 and 2012, were included. In addition to the description of general disease indicators, a descriptive spatial analysis, empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial dependence analysis were performed by means of global and local Moran’s indexes. RESULTS A total of 14,542 new cases were recorded during the period under study. Based on the annual case detection rate, 77.0% of the municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (> 40 cases/100,000 inhabitants). Regarding the annual case detection rate in < 15 years-olds, 65.4% of the municipalities were hyperendemic (10.0 to 19.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants); 26.6% had a detection rate of grade 2 disability cases between 5.0 and 9.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants. There was a geographical overlap of clusters of municipalities with high detection rates in hyperendemic areas. Clusters with high disease risk (global Moran’s index: 0.51; p < 0.001), ongoing transmission (0.47; p < 0.001) and late diagnosis (0.44; p < 0.001) were identified mainly in the central-north and southwestern regions of Tocantins. CONCLUSIONS We identified high-risk clusters for transmission and late diagnosis of leprosy in the Brazilian state of Tocantins. Surveillance and control measures should be prioritized in these high-risk municipalities.

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Introduction Leprosy remains a relevant public health issue in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of new cases of leprosy and to detect areas with higher risks of disease in the City of Vitória. Methods The study was ecologically based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, State of Espírito Santo between 2005 and 2009. The data sources used came from the available records of the State Health Secretary of Espírito Santo. A global and local empirical Bayesian method was used in the spatial analysis to produce a leprosy risk estimation, and the fluctuation effect was smoothed from the detection coefficients. Results The study used thematic maps to illustrate that leprosy is distributed heterogeneously between the neighborhoods and that it is possible to identify areas with high risk of disease. The Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.926 (p = 0.001) for the Local Method indicated highly correlated coefficients. The Moran index was calculated to evaluate correlations between the incidences of adjoining districts. Conclusions We identified the spatial contexts in which there were the highest incidence rates of leprosy in Vitória during the studied period. The results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, which can help establish more cost-effective control strategies because they indicate specific regions and priority planning activities that can interfere with the transmission chain.

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Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

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Abstract: INTRODUCTION : Several municipalities of the Western region of the State of São Paulo have been affected by human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL), including the City of Adamantina, where the first autochthonous cases occurred in 2004. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of HVL in Adamantina. METHODS : Secondary data regarding the occurrence of HVL in Adamantina between 2004 and 2011 were used. Incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates were calculated. We used local empirical Bayesian incidence rates to represent the occurrence of the disease in the census sector of the city. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of cases was evaluated using scan statistics. In situ observation was performed to assess the socioeconomic and environmental characteristics of the areas with medium and high incidences. RESULTS : Adamantina reported cases in 70% of its census sectors. No differences were observed between sexes. The group aged 0-4 years presented the highest incidence and mortality rates, and the group aged 40-59 years presented the highest fatality rate. We detected a spatiotemporal cluster, which coincided with the commencement of the endemic in the city. CONCLUSIONS : The individuals most affected by the disease were children. The disease was present in areas with better and worse socioeconomic conditions. The use of spatial analysis techniques was important to achieve the study objectives.

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Praziquantel chemotherapy has been the focus of the Schistosomiasis Control Program in Brazil for the past two decades. Nevertheless, information on the impact of selective chemotherapy against Schistosoma mansoni infection under the conditions confronted by the health teams in endemic municipalities remains scarce. This paper compares the spatial pattern of infection before and after treatment with either a 40 mg/kg or 60 mg/kg dose of praziquantel by determining the intensity of spatial cluster among patients at 180 and 360 days after treatment. The spatial-temporal distribution of egg-positive patients was analysed in a Geographic Information System using the kernel smoothing technique. While all patients became egg-negative after 21 days, 17.9% and 30.9% reverted to an egg-positive condition after 180 and 360 days, respectively. Both the prevalence and intensity of infection after treatment were significantly lower in the 60 mg/kg than in the 40 mg/kg treatment group. The higher intensity of the kernel in the 40 mg/kg group compared to the 60 mg/kg group, at both 180 and 360 days, reflects the higher number of reverted cases in the lower dose group. Auxiliary, preventive measures to control transmission should be integrated with chemotherapy to achieve a more enduring impact.

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The combined use of precision agriculture and the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) allows the spatial monitoring of coffee nutrient balance to provide more balanced and cost-effective fertilizer recommendations. The objective of this work was to evaluate the spatial variability in the nutritional status of two coffee varieties using the Mean Nutritional Balance Index (NBIm) and its relationship with their respective yields. The experiment was conducted in eastern Minas Gerais in two areas, one planted with variety Catucaí and another with variety Catuaí. The NBIm of the two varieties and their yields were analyzed through geostatistics and, based on the models and parameters of the variograms, were interpolated to obtain their spatial distribution in the studied areas. Variety Catucai, with grater spatial variability, was more nutritional unbalanced than variety Catuai, and consequently produced lower yields. Excess of Fe and Mn makes these elements limiting yield factors.

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Information on the spatial distribution of particle size fractions is essential for use planning and management of soils. The aim of this work to was to study the spatial variability of particle size fractions of a Typic Hapludox cultivated with conilon coffee. The soil samples were collected at depths of 0-0.20 and 0.20-0.40 m in the coffee canopy projection, totaling 109 georeferentiated points. At the depth of 0.2-0.4 m the clay fraction showed average value significantly higher, while the sand fraction showed was higher in the depth of 0-0.20 m. The silt showed no significant difference between the two depths. The particle size fractions showed medium and high spatial variability. The levels of total sand and clay have positive and negative correlation, respectively, with the altitude of the sampling points, indicating the influence of landscape configuration.

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ABSTRACT The sunflower plant is an oilseed crop that has aroused a great interest in the Brazilian and international scenery especillay because of the possibility of using its oil for biodiesel production. The objective of this study was to evaluate productivity and yield components of Embrapa 122 sunflower according to the spatial arrangement. Treatments were arranged in 4 x 4 factorial arrangement, which are the four spacings between rows (0.30; 0.50; 0.70 and 0.90 m) and four sowing densities (30,000; 45,000; 60,000 and 75,000 plants ha-1). The experiment was carried out in a complete randomized block design with four replications. The experiments were conducted in the experimental area of the Plant Science Department in Fortaleza, State of Ceará-Brazil and on the Curu Vale Experimental Farm in Pentecoste, State of Ceará-Brazil. Productivity and the following production components were analyzed in the end of the crop cycle: harvested capitula, capitulum diameter, capitulum mass, achene mass per capitulum, mass of 100 achenes, achenes per capitulum, harvest index and oil content in the achenes. The experiments were analyzed jointly in relation to the cropping area and the data submitted to analysis of variance and quantitative factors tested by polynomial regression. The variables, spacing, density and cropping area did not interact with these variables and the spatial arrangement of the plants affected only the components. The cropping area influences the productive behavior of sunflower Embrapa 122. The spatial arrangement of the plants of sunflower of variety Embrapa 122 influences yield components but does not affect productivity.

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As stated by the New Institutional Economics theory, transaction costs play a relevant role in economics and, according to the extent of such costs, agents make investment decisions. Actually, transaction costs may represent a disincentive to entrepreneurship. This work aims to verify whether transaction costs are related to investment rate and foreign direct investment rate (FDI) in different business environments. The results suggest that foreign investors do not have precise information about other countries as domestic investors do; as it is observed, only the relation between transaction costs and investment rate is significant. Furthermore, there is evidence that the business environments of BRIC countries are less developed when compared to business environments of other countries in the study

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify clusters of the major occurrences of leprosy and their associated socioeconomic and demographic factors. METHODS: Cases of leprosy that occurred between 1998 and 2007 in São José do Rio Preto (southeastern Brazil) were geocodified and the incidence rates were calculated by census tract. A socioeconomic classification score was obtained using principal component analysis of socioeconomic variables. Thematic maps to visualize the spatial distribution of the incidence of leprosy with respect to socioeconomic levels and demographic density were constructed using geostatistics. RESULTS: While the incidence rate for the entire city was 10.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually between 1998 and 2007, the incidence rates of individual census tracts were heterogeneous, with values that ranged from 0 to 26.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Areas with a high leprosy incidence were associated with lower socioeconomic levels. There were identified clusters of leprosy cases, however there was no association between disease incidence and demographic density. There was a disparity between the places where the majority of ill people lived and the location of healthcare services. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis techniques utilized identified the poorer neighborhoods of the city as the areas with the highest risk for the disease. These data show that health departments must prioritize politico-administrative policies to minimize the effects of social inequality and improve the standards of living, hygiene, and education of the population in order to reduce the incidence of leprosy.