46 resultados para Shannon’s measure of uncertainty

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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OBJECTIVE To propose a cut-off for the World Health Organization Quality of Life-Bref (WHOQOL-bref) as a predictor of quality of life in older adults. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 391 older adults registered in the Northwest Health District in Belo Horizonte, MG, Southeastern Brazil, between October 8, 2010 and May 23, 2011. The older adults’ quality of life was measured using the WHOQOL-bref. The analysis was rationalized by outlining two extreme and simultaneous groups according to perceived quality of life and satisfaction with health (quality of life good/satisfactory – good or very good self-reported quality of life and being satisfied or very satisfied with health – G5; and poor/very poor quality of life – poor or very poor self-reported quality of life and feeling dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with health – G6). A Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) was created to assess the diagnostic ability of different cut-off points of the WHOQOL-bref. RESULTS ROC curve analysis indicated a critical value 60 as the optimal cut-off point for assessing perceived quality of life and satisfaction with health. The area under the curve was 0.758, with a sensitivity of 76.8% and specificity of 63.8% for a cut-off of ≥ 60 for overall quality of life (G5) and sensitivity 95.0% and specificity of 54.4% for a cut-off of < 60 for overall quality of life (G6). CONCLUSIONS Diagnostic interpretation of the ROC curve revealed that cut-off < 60 for overall quality of life obtained excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value for tracking older adults with probable worse quality of life and dissatisfied with health.

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ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

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A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

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OBJECTIVE: To review the use of accelerometry as an objective measure of physical activity in adults and elderly people. METHODS: A systematic review of studies on the use of accelerometty as an objective measure to assess physical activity in adults were examined in PubMed Central, Web of Knowledge, EBSCO and Medline databases from March 29 to April 15, 2010. The following keywords were used: "accelerometry," "accelerometer," "physical activity," "PA," "patterns," "levels," "adults," "older adults," and "elderly," either alone or in combination using "AND" or "OR." The reference lists of the articles retrieved were examined to capture any other potentially relevant article. Of 899 studies initially identified, only 18 were fully reviewed, and their outcome measures abstracted and analyzed. RESULTS: Eleven studies were conducted in North America (United States), five in Europe, one in Africa (Cameroon) and one in Australia. Very few enrolled older people, and only one study reported the season or time of year when data was collected. The articles selected had different methods, analyses, and results, which prevented comparison between studies. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to standardize study methods for data reporting to allow comparisons of results across studies and monitor changes in populations. These data can help design more adequate strategies for monitoring and promotion of physical activity.

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Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

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Traditionally, in the cigarettes industry, the determination of ammonium ion in the mainstream smoke is performed by ion chromatography. This work studies this determination and compares the results of this technique with the use of external and internal standard calibration. A reference cigarette sample presented measurement uncertainty of 2.0 μg/cigarette and 1.5 μg/cigarette, with external and internal standard, respectively. It is observed that the greatest source of uncertainty is the bias correction factor and that it is even more significant when using external standard, confirming thus the importance of internal standardization for this correction.

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OBJECTIVE: The Integrated Management of Childhood Illness is a strategy designed to address major causes of child mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the strategy on the quality of child health care provided at primary facilities. METHODS: Child health quality of care and costs were compared in four states in Northeastern Brazil, in 2001. There were studied 48 health facilities considered to have had stable strategy implementation at least two years before the start of study, with 48 matched comparison facilities in the same states. A single measure of correct management of sick children was used to assess care provided to all sick children. Costs included all resources at the national, state, local and facility levels associated with child health care. RESULTS: Facilities providing strategy-based care had significantly better management of sick children at no additional cost to municipalities relative to the comparison municipalities. At strategy facilities 72% of children were correctly managed compared with 56% in comparison facilities (p=0.001). The cost per child managed correctly was US$13.20 versus US$21.05 in the strategy and comparison municipalities, respectively, after standardization for population size. CONCLUSIONS: The strategy improves the efficiency of primary facilities in Northeastern Brazil. It leads to better health outcomes at no extra cost.

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OBJECTIVE To assess the prevalence and factors associated with intimate partner violence after the diagnosis of sexually transmitted diseases.METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in 2012 and involved 221 individuals (40.3% male and 59.7% female) attended to at reference health care units for the treatment of sexually transmitted diseases. Data were collected using a questionnaire applied during interviews with each participant. A multivariate analysis with a logistic regression model was conducted using the stepwise technique. Only the variables with a p value < 0.05 were included in the adjusted analysis. The odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used as the measure of effect.RESULTS A total of 30.3% of the participants reported experiencing some type of violence (27.6%, psychological; 5.9%, physical; and 7.2%, sexual) after the diagnosis of sexually transmitted disease. In the multivariate analysis adjusted to assess intimate partner violence after the revelation of the diagnosis of sexually transmitted diseases, the following variables remained statistically significant: extramarital relations (OR = 3.72; 95%CI 1.91;7.26; p = 0.000), alcohol consumption by the partner (OR = 2.16; 95%CI 1.08;4.33; p = 0.026), history of violence prior to diagnosis (OR = 2.87; 95%CI 1.44;5.69; p = 0.003), and fear of disclosing the diagnosis to the partner (OR = 2.66; 95%CI 1.32;5.32; p = 0.006).CONCLUSIONS Individuals who had extramarital relations, experienced violence prior to the diagnosis of sexually transmitted disease, feared disclosing the diagnosis to the partner, and those whose partner consumed alcohol had an increased likelihood of suffering violence. The high prevalence of intimate partner violence suggests that this population is vulnerable and therefore intervention efforts should be directed to them. Referral health care services for the treatment of sexually transmitted diseases can be strategic places to identify and prevent intimate partner violence.

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The present investigation was carried out on a sample of 840 children (5 to 16 years old) from ten small towns of the State of Bahia in northeastern Brazil. The objetive was to study, by using a cross sectional methodology, the evolution of schistosomiasis morbidity (hepatic and splenic enlargement) in children, and the role of the intensity of S. mansoni infection in this process. The children were analised in three age groups (5 to 8, to 12 and 13 to 16 years old) and classified as uninfected, mildly infected, moderately infected and heavily infected according to the number of eggs in the stool. In children aged 5 to 8 years, increasing egg counts were not associated with increasing frequencies of hepatic or splenic enlargement. In the 9 to 12 years old group and association was observed with the prevalence of hepatic enlargement, but not with the prevalence of spleen enlargement. In the oldest group, 13 to 16 years old, an association was observed with the prevalence of enlargement of both organs. It was evident that in this population schistosomiasis morbidity develops in the early period of life as a gradual process starting with liver enlargement and followed by spleen enlargement some years later. It was found that the intensity of infection has a fundamental role in this process, although there is a latent period of some years before clinical splenomegaly appears in moderate-heavily infected children. The Authors suggest that the prevalence of splenomegaly in the 13 to 16 years old group is a good measure of the community level of schistosomiasis morbidity and could be used to measure the impact of control programs.

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We report a human case of polycystic hidatidosis due to Echinococcus vogeli from Contamana (Department of Loreto) village located in the central jungle of Peru. The patient is a 44 year-old lady, teacher, who carried a painless liver mass since a year ago. She was submitted to abdominal surgery and the liver mass was removed and showed multiple cysts containing colorless liquid as is showed in the polycystic hidatidosis. The morphology and measure of the hooks obtained from the liquid contained in the cysts are from Echinococcus vogeli. It is the first report of this parasitism in Perú.

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Chemical therapy for the treatment of leishmaniasis is still inadequate, and a number of drugs and therapeutic programs are being tested. Besides treatment, the ultimate goal is an effective cure, and histopathological analyses of the lesion cicatrices constitute an important measure of treatment success, or otherwise, in this respect. In this paper, we describe histopathological patterns in cases of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in 32 patients from the municipality of Caratinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil, before and after treatment with the following therapeutic methodos: l) leishvacin + glucantime; 2) leishvacin + BCG associated with glucantime; 3) glucantime; 4) leishvacin + BCG. Lesion fragments were collected from all patients by biopsy prior to, and approximately 30 days after, each treatment which resulted in a clinical diagnosis of cure. Following the analysis of slides, the preparations were described from a histopathological point of view and grouped taking into account the prevalence or significance of the characteristic elements. This process resulted in the following classification: 1. exsudative reaction (ER); 2. exsudative giant cell reaction (EGCR); 3. exsudative productive reaction (EPR); 4. exsudative productive giant cell reaction (EPGCR); 5. exsudative productive necrotic reaction (EPNR); 6. necrotic exsudative reaction (NER); 7. productive exsudative reaction (PER), 8. productive giant cell reaction (PGCR); 9. productive exsudative giant cell reaction (PEGCR); 10. productive exsudative giant cell granulomatous reaction (PEGCGR); 11. productive reaction (PR) and 12. productive cicatricial (cure) reaction (PCR). After this analysis, it was noted that clinical cure did not always coincide with histopathological cure.

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INTRODUCTION: Publications are often used as a measure of success in research work. Chagas disease occurs in Central and Southern America. However, during the past years, the disease has been occurring outside Latin America due to migration from endemic zones. This article describes a bibliometric review of the literature on Chagas disease research indexed in PubMed during a 70-year period. METHODS: Medline was used via the PubMed online service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine from 1940 to 2009. The search strategy was: Chagas disease [MeSH] OR Trypanosoma cruzi [MeSH]. RESULTS: A total of 13,989 references were retrieved. The number of publications increased steadily over time from 1,361 (1940-1969) to 5,430 (2000-2009) (coefficient of determination for linear fit, R²=0.910). Eight journals contained 25% of the Chagas disease literature. Of the publications, 64.2% came from endemic countries. Brazil was the predominant country (37%), followed by the United States (17.6%) and Argentina (14%). The ranking in production changed when the number of publications was normalized by estimated cases of Chagas disease (Panama and Uruguay), population (Argentina and Uruguay), and gross domestic product (Bolivia and Brazil). CONCLUSIONS: Several Latin American countries, where the prevalence of T. cruzi infection was not very high, were the main producers of the Chagas disease literature, after adjusting for economic and population indexes. The countries with more estimated cases of Chagas disease produced less research on Chagas disease than some developed countries.

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IntroductionAntiretroviral therapy (ART) has been used to treat large numbers of patients living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Lipid disorders are often observed in these patients, and include elevations in total cholesterol (TC) and triglycerides (TG).MethodsA cross-sectional study was performed using 333 patient records from the Regional Hospital of São José Doutor Homero de Miranda Gomes (HRSJHMG). The study population consisted of patients with HIV who were under medical follow up, either on or off drug treatment. The data were entered into Excel and exported to SPSS 16.0 for analysis using chi-square testing. We used prevalence ratios as the measure of association.ResultsLipid abnormalities were observed in 78.9% of individuals who received ART. Of the 308 subjects on ART, 59.1%, 41.9%, and 33.1% had TG, TC and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) abnormalities, respectively. The prevalence of LDL changes was 2.57-fold higher in individuals who had been using ART for more than 12 months, compared to those using ART for 6 to 12 months.ConclusionsHIV patients showed a significant increase in the association between TC and TG levels and the use of ART. In particular, changes in TC, LDL and TG were greater in individuals who had received ART for over more than 12 months.