INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Metas de inflação, política monetária e investimento: um estudo para dezessete países

In this paper two hypotheses about the relationship between monetary policy and investment in the context of the inflation target system were tested. One of these hypotheses is based on the idea of neutrality of money, and the other hypothesis is based on the reject of that idea. An investment equation for seventeen economies using a piece-wise dummy variable was estimated by the Methodology of Panel Data. The results highlight that a negative correlation between current expectation of restrictive monetary policy and current investment rose after the inflation target system implementation.

Fiscal policy and private investment: latin america in a comparative perspective

The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin-American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified.

The role of the eosinophil-selective chemokine, eotaxin, in allergic and non-allergic airways inflammation

Blood eosinophilia and tissue infiltration by eosinophils are frequently observed in allergic inflammation and parasitic infections. This selective accumulation of eosinophils suggested the existence of endogenous eosinophil-selective chemoattractants. We have recently discovered a novel eosinophil-selective chemoattractant which we called eotaxin in an animal model of allergic airways disease. Eotaxin is generated in both allergic and non-allergic bronchopulmonary inflammation. The early increase in eotaxin paralled eosinophil infiltration in the lung tissue in both models. An antibody to IL-5 suppressed lung eosinophilia, correlating with an inhibition of eosinophil release from bone marrow, without affecting eotaxin generation. This suggests that endogenous IL-5 is important for eosinophil migration but does not appear to be a stimulus for eotaxin production. Constitutive levels of eotaxin observed in guinea-pig lung may be responsible for the basal lung eosinophilia observed in this species. Allergen-induced eotaxin was present mainly in the epithelium and alveolar macrophages, as detected by immunostaining. In contrast there was no upregulation of eotaxin by the epithelial cells following the injection of Sephadex beads and the alveolar macrophage and mononuclear cells surrounding the granuloma were the predominant positive staining cells. Eotaxin and related chemokines acting through the CCR3 receptor may play a major role in eosinophil recruitment in allergic inflammation and parasitic diseases and thus offer an attractive target for therapeutic intervention.

Cl gene cluster encoding several small nucleolar RNAs: a comparison amongst trypanosomatids

Small nucleolar RNAs (snoRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs that modify RNA molecules such as rRNA and snRNA by guiding 2'-O-ribose methylation (C/D box snoRNA family) and pseudouridylation reactions (H/ACA snoRNA family). H/ACA snoRNAs are also involved in trans-splicing in trypanosomatids. The aims of this work were to characterise the Cl gene cluster that encodes several snoRNAs in Trypanosoma rangeli and compare it with clusters from Trypanosoma cruzi, Trypanosoma brucei, Leishmania major, Leishmania infantum, Leishmania braziliensis and Leptomonas collosoma. The T. rangeli Cl gene cluster is an 801 base pair (bp) repeat sequence that encodes three C/D (Cl1, Cl2 and Cl4) and three H/ACA (Cl3, Cl5 and Cl6) snoRNAs. In contrast to T. brucei, the Cl3 and Cl5 homologues have not been annotated in the Leishmania or T. cruzi genome projects (http//:www.genedb.org). Of note, snoRNA transcribed regions have a high degree of sequence identity among all species and share gene synteny. Collectively, these findings suggest that the Cl cluster could constitute an interesting target for therapeutic (gene silencing) or diagnostic intervention strategies (PCR-derived tools).

Chagas disease, adipose tissue and the metabolic syndrome

Trypanosoma cruzi infection of the adipose tissue of mice triggers the local expression of inflammatory mediators and a reduction in the expression of the adipokine adiponectin. T. cruzi can be detected in adipose tissue by PCR 300 days post-infection. Infection of cultured adipocytes results in increased expression of cytokines and chemokines and a reduction in the expression of adiponectin and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor ³, both of which are negative regulators of inflammation. Infection also results in the upregulation of cyclin D1, the Notch pathway, and extracellular signal-regulated kinase and a reduction in the expression of caveolin-1. Thus, T. cruzi infection of cultured adipocytes leads to an upregulation of the inflammatory process. Since adiponectin null mice have a cardiomyopathic phenotype, it is possible that the reduction in adiponectin contributes to the pathogenesis of chagasic cardiomyopathy. Adipose tissue may serve as a reservoir for T. cruzi from which parasites can become reactivated during periods of immunosuppression. T. cruzi infection of mice often results in hypoglycemia. In contrast, hyperglycemia as observed in diabetes results in increased parasitemia and mortality. Adipose tissue is an important target tissue of T. cruzi and the infection of this tissue is associated with a profound impact on systemic metabolism, increasing the risk of metabolic syndrome.

JVG9, a benzimidazole derivative, alters the surface and cytoskeleton of Trypanosoma cruzi bloodstream trypomastigotes

Trypanosoma cruzi has a particular cytoskeleton that consists of a subpellicular network of microtubules and actin microfilaments. Therefore, it is an excellent target for the development of new anti-parasitic drugs. Benzimidazole 2-carbamates, a class of well-known broad-spectrum anthelmintics, have been shown to inhibit the in vitro growth of many protozoa. Therefore, to find efficient anti-trypanosomal (trypanocidal) drugs, our group has designed and synthesised several benzimidazole derivatives. One, named JVG9 (5-chloro-1H-benzimidazole-2-thiol), has been found to be effective against T. cruzi bloodstream trypomastigotes under both in vitro and in vivo conditions. Here, we present the in vitro effects observed by laser scanning confocal and scanning electron microscopy on T. cruzi trypomastigotes. Changes in the surface and the distribution of the cytoskeletal proteins are consistent with the hypothesis that the trypanocidal activity of JVG9 involves the cytoskeleton as a target.

Agentes antineoplásicos biorredutíveis: uma nova alternativa para o tratamento de tumores sólidos

A problem often encountered in cancer therapy is the presence of tumor cell subpopulation that are resistant to treatment. Solid tumors frequently contain hypoxic cells that are resistant to killing by ionizing radiation and also by many chemotherapeutic agents. However, these hypoxic cells can be exploited for therapy by non-toxic hypoxic-activated prodrugs. Bioreductive drugs require metabolic reduction to generate cytotoxic metabolites. This process is facilitated by appropriate reductases and the lower oxygen conditions present in solid tumors. The unique presence of hypoxic cells in human tumors provides an important target for selective cancer therapy.

Métodos de preparação e atividade biológica do ácido quinolínico e derivados

In 1981 2,3-pyridine dicarboxylic acid (quinolinic acid) was discovery to be a selective agonist for the N-methyl -D-aspartic acid (NMDA) receptor. As a consequence it possesses neurotoxic activity resulting from overstimulation of the receptor. Quinolinic acid is implicated as an etiological factor in a range of neurodegenerative disease including AIDS related dementia, Huntington´s disease and Lyme disease. In the design of novel therapies to treat these diseases, some molecules have been identified as an important target. In this paper we described different methods to prepare quinolinic acid and derivatives.

Novos produtos naturais capazes de atuar na estabilização de microtúbulos, um importante alvo no combate ao câncer

Microtubules are involved in many aspects of cellular biology and represent an important target of anticancer chemotherapeutics. In the past five years, novel natural products such as epothilones, discodermolide, sarcodictyin, eleutherobin, and laulimalide, all of which have biological activities similar to those of paclitaxel (Taxolâ), have been discovered. Taxolâ is an important antitumor drug approved by the FDA for the treatment of ovarian, breast and non-small-cell lung carcinomas and became the first natural product described that stabilized microtubules avoiding the cellular replication. The present article reports new natural products that are able to act on the stabilization of microtubules.

Estudos de QSAR 3D para um conjunto de inibidores de butirilcolinesterase humana

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is considered the main cause of cognitive decline in adults. The available therapies for AD treatment seek to maintain the activity of cholinergic system through the inhibition of the enzyme acetylcholinesterase. However, butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) can be considered an alternative target for AD treatment. Aiming at developing new BuChE inhibitors, robust QSAR 3D models with high predictive power were developed. The best model presents a good fit (r²=0.82, q²=0.76, with two PCs) and high predictive power (r²predict=0.88). Analysis of regression vector shows that steric properties have considerable importance to the inhibition of the BuChE.

Pollination ecology of Tabebuia aurea (Manso) Benth. & Hook. and T. ochracea (Cham.) Standl. (Bignoniaceae) in Central Brazil cerrado vegetation

The pollination ecology and breeding systems of Tabebuia aurea (Manso) Benth. & Hook., and T. ochracea (Cham.) Standl. were investigated in an area of cerrado vegetation in the Federal District of Brazil. These species occur sympatrically, flower massively and synchronously for a month, during the dry season (July to September). Both have diurnal anthesis, with similar floral structures, a yellow tubular corolla and produce nectar. Fourteen species of bees visited both Tabebuia species, but, only three Centris species and Bombus morio, were considered potential pollinators, because of their high frequency on the flowers and their efficiency in carrying pollen. Tests on the breeding systems of T. aurea and T. ochracea demonstrated that boths species are self-incompatible, with late-acting self-incompatibility. The proportion of fruit set from cross pollination (T. aurea 17.2% and T. ochracea 12.3%) in both species was low considering the great number of flowers displayed. This suggests a lack of maternal resources for fruit-set. The great amount of seeds per fruit (about 92 in T. aurea and 285 in T. ochracea) may represent an investment of maternal resources allocated on higher quality of fertilized ovules.

Factors associated with emergency department visits due to acute asthma

It is important to identify characteristics related to poor disease control and frequent visits to the emergency department (ED). The objective of the present study was to compare the characteristics of patients attending the adult ED for treatment of asthma exacerbation with those attending an asthma specialist clinic (AC) in the same hospital, and to determine the factors associated with frequent visits to the ED. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of consecutive patients (12 years and older) attending the ED (N = 86) and the AC (N = 86). Significantly more ED patients than AC patients reported ED visits in the past year (95.3 vs 48.8%; P < 0.001) and had difficulty performing work (81.4 vs 49.4%; P < 0.001. Significantly more AC than ED patents had been treated with inhaled corticosteroids (75.6 vs 18.6%; P < 0.001) used to increase or start steroid therapy when an attack was perceived (46.5 vs 20.9%; P < 0.001) and correctly used a metered-dose inhaler (50.0 vs 11.6%; P < 0.001). The history of hospital admissions (odds ratio, OR, 4.00) and use of inhaled corticosteroids (OR, 0.27) were associated with frequent visits to the ED. In conclusion, ED patients were more likely than AC patients to be dependent on the acute use of the ED, were significantly less knowledgeable about asthma management and were more likely to suffer more severe disease. ED patients should be considered an important target for asthma education. Facilitating the access to ambulatory care facilities might serve to reduce asthma morbidity.

Characterization of rat heart alkaline phosphatase isoenzymes and modulation of activity

Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) is important in calcification and its expression seems to be associated with the inflammatory process. We investigated the in vitro acute effects of compounds used for the prevention or treatment of cardiovascular diseases on total ALP activity from male Wistar rat heart homogenate. ALP activity was determined by quantifying, at 410 nm, the p-nitrophenol released from p-nitrophenylphosphate (substrate in Tris buffer, pH 10.4). Using specific inhibitors of ALP activity and the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, we showed that the rat heart had high ALP activity (31.73 ± 3.43 nmol p-nitrophenol·mg protein-1·min-1): mainly tissue-nonspecific ALP but also tissue-specific intestinal ALP type II. Both ALP isoenzymes presented myocardial localization (striated pattern) by immunofluorescence. ALP was inhibited a) strongly by 0.5 mM levamisole, 2 mM theophylline and 2 mM aspirin (91, 77 and 84%, respectively) and b) less strongly by 2 mM L-phenylalanine, 100 mL polyphenol-rich beverages and 0.5 mM progesterone (24, 21 to 29 and 11%, respectively). β-estradiol and caffeine (0.5 and 2 mM) had no effect; 0.5 mM simvastatin and 2 mM atenolol activated ALP (32 and 36%, respectively). Propranolol (2 mM) tended to activate ALP activity and corticosterone activated (18%) and inhibited (13%) (0.5 and 2 mM, respectively). We report, for the first time, that the rat heart expresses intestinal ALP type II and has high total ALP activity. ALP activity was inhibited by compounds used in the prevention of cardiovascular pathology. ALP manipulation in vivo may constitute an additional target for intervention in cardiovascular diseases.

Prolonged acceptance of skin grafts induced by B cells places regulatory T cells on the histopathology scene

The participation of regulatory T (Treg) cells in B cell-induced T cell tolerance has been claimed in different models. In skin grafts, naive B cells were shown to induce graft tolerance. However, neither the contribution of Treg cells to B cell-induced skin tolerance nor their contribution to the histopathological diagnosis of graft acceptance has been addressed. Here, using male C57BL/6 naive B cells to tolerize female animals, we show that skin graft tolerance is dependent on CD25+ Treg cell activity and independent of B cell-derived IL-10. In fact, B cells from IL-10-deficient mice were able to induce skin graft tolerance while Treg depletion of the host inhibited 100% graft survival. We questioned how Treg cell-mediated tolerance would impact on histopathology. B cell-tolerized skin grafts showed pathological scores as high as a rejected skin from naive, non-tolerized mice due to loss of skin appendages, reduced keratinization and mononuclear cell infiltrate. However, in tolerized mice, 40% of graft infiltrating CD4+ cells were FoxP3+ Treg cells with a high Treg:Teff (effector T cell) ratio (6:1) as compared to non-tolerized mice where Tregs comprise less than 8% of total infiltrating CD4 cells with a Treg:Teff ratio below 1:1. These results render Treg cells an obligatory target for histopathological studies on tissue rejection that may help to diagnose and predict the outcome of a transplanted organ.