Age transition of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Before the Aids pandemic, demographic transition and control programs prompted a shift in the age of incidence of tuberculosis from adults to older people in many countries. The objective of the study is to evaluate this transition in Brazil. METHODS: Tuberculosis incidence and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and population data from the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific incidence and mortality rates and medians. RESULTS: Among reported cases, the proportion of older people increased from 10.5% to 12% and the median age from 38 to 41 years between the period of 1986 and 1996. The smallest decrease in the incidence rate occurred in the 30--49 and 60+ age groups. The median age of death increased from 53 to 55 years between 1980 and 1996. The general decline in mortality rates from 1986 to 1991 became less evident in the 30+ age group during the period of 1991 to 1996. A direct correlation between age and mortality rates was observed. The largest proportion of bacteriologically unconfirmed cases occurred in older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of tuberculosis has begun to shift to the older population. This shift results from the decline in the annual risk of infection as well as the demographic transition. An increase in reactivation tuberculosis in older people is expected, since this population will grow from 5% to 14% of the Brazilian population over the next 50 years. A progressive reduction in HIV-related cases in adults will most likely occur. The difficulty in diagnosing tuberculosis in old age leads to increased mortality.

HIV risk practices by female sex workers according to workplace

OBJECTIVE To investigate differences in HIV infection- related risk practices by Female Sex Workers according to workplace and the effects of homophily on estimating HIV prevalence. METHODS Data from 2,523 women, recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling, were used for the study carried out in 10 Brazilian cities in 2008-2009. The study included female sex workers aged 18 and over. The questionnaire was completed by the subjects and included questions on characteristics of professional activity, sexual practices, use of drugs, HIV testing, and access to health services. HIV quick tests were conducted. The participants were classified in two groups according to place of work: on the street or indoor venues, like nightclubs and saunas. To compare variable distributions by place of work, we used Chi-square homogeneity tests, taking into consideration unequal selection probabilities as well as the structure of dependence between observations. We tested the effect of homophily by workplace on estimated HIV prevalence. RESULTS The highest HIV risk practices were associated with: working on the streets, lower socioeconomic status, low regular smear test coverage, higher levels of crack use and higher levels of syphilis serological scars as well as higher prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of homophily was higher among sex workers in indoor venues. However, it did not affect the estimated prevalence of HIV, even after using a post-stratification by workplace procedure. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that strategies should focus on extending access to, and utilization of, health services. Prevention policies should be specifically aimed at street workers. Regarding the application of Respondent-Driven Sampling, the sample should be sufficient to estimate transition probabilities, as the network develops more quickly among sex workers in indoor venues.

The persistence of multifocal colonisation by a single ABC genotype of Candida albicans may predict the transition from commensalism to infection

Candida albicans is a common member of the human microbiota and may cause invasive disease in susceptible populations. Several risk factors have been proposed for candidaemia acquisition. Previous Candida multifocal colonisation among hospitalised patients may be crucial for the successful establishment of candidaemia. Nevertheless, it is still not clear whether the persistence or replacement of a single clone of C. albicans in multiple anatomical sites of the organism may represent an additional risk for candidaemia acquisition. Therefore, we prospectively evaluated the dynamics of the colonising strains of C. albicans for two groups of seven critically ill patients: group I included patients colonised by C. albicans in multiple sites who did not develop candidaemia and group II included patients who were colonised and who developed candidaemia. ABC and microsatellite genotyping of 51 strains of C. albicans revealed that patients who did not develop candidaemia were multiply colonised by at least two ABC genotypes of C. albicans, whereas candidaemic patients had highly related microsatellites and the same ABC genotype in colonising and bloodstream isolates that were probably present in different body sites before the onset of candidaemia.

Trypanosoma vivax infection dynamics in a cattle herd maintained in a transition area between Pantanal lowlands and highlands of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Trypanosoma vivax outbreaks in beef cattle in the Pantanal region of Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil, causes relevant economical impact due to weight loss, abortion and mortality. Cattle moved from the Pantanal to adjacent areas of this ecosystem for breeding and fattening is a common feature. Therefore an epidemiological study on breeding cows in the transition area between Pantanal lowland and adjacent highlands of Mato Grosso do Sul was performed to determine the T. vivax infection dynamics and outbreak risk. Three experimental groups were formed: Group 1 consisted of cows parasitologically negative by the Woo test and in the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for T. vivax antibody detection (Tv-ELISA-Ab); Group 2 parasitologically negative and positive in the Tv-ELISA-Ab; and in Group 3 cows were parasitologically positive and with positive reactions in the Tv-ELISA-Ab. During 24 months, the cows' dislodgment between the above established groups was monitored by Woo test and Tv-ELISA-Ab exams. The tabanid population was also monitored and the highest number occurred during the rainy season. Although parasitemias were detected only in the first four samplings of the experimental period, the cows could be considered as trypanotolerant, because no clinical signs were observed. Despite the higher T. vivax incidence during the dry season, no disease symptoms were seen. Even though T. vivax epidemiological situation in the herd was characterized as endemic with seasonal variation, the probability of outbreaks was null within the conditions of the study.

5-Methyltetrahydrofolate-homocysteine methyltransferase gene polymorphism (MTR) and risk of head and neck cancer

The functional effect of the A>G transition at position 2756 on the MTR gene (5-methyltetrahydrofolate-homocysteine methyltransferase), involved in folate metabolism, may be a risk factor for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The frequency of MTR A2756G (rs1805087) polymorphism was compared between HNSCC patients and individuals without history of neoplasias. The association of this polymorphism with clinical histopathological parameters was evaluated. A total of 705 individuals were included in the study. The polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism technique was used to genotype the polymorphism. For statistical analysis, the chi-square test (univariate analysis) was used for comparisons between groups and multiple logistic regression (multivariate analysis) was used for interactions between the polymorphism and risk factors and clinical histopathological parameters. Using univariate analysis, the results did not show significant differences in allelic or genotypic distributions. Multivariable analysis showed that tobacco and alcohol consumption (P < 0.05), AG genotype (P = 0.019) and G allele (P = 0.028) may be predictors of the disease and a higher frequency of the G polymorphic allele was detected in men with HNSCC compared to male controls (P = 0.008). The analysis of polymorphism regarding clinical histopathological parameters did not show any association with the primary site, aggressiveness, lymph node involvement or extension of the tumor. In conclusion, our data provide evidence that supports an association between the polymorphism and the risk of HNSCC.

Chinese energy policy progress and challenges in the transition to low carbon development, 2006-2013

If the world is not to jeopardize the chances for human life on Earth, climate change must be mitigated; therefore, achieving low carbon development is crucial. China is the world's greatest GHG emitter, energy producer and energy consumer; investigating its energy-climate policy developments and international positions are of utmost importance to understand and tackle current stumbling blocks of the global energy and climate governance.

Risk factors for basal cell carcinoma: a case-control study

A controlled trial was performed with the purpose of investigating which factors could be considered of significant risk for the development of basal cell carcinoma. A total of 259 cases of basal cell carcinoma diagnosed from July 1991 to July 1992 were compared with 518 controls matched for age and sex. All subjects in both groups were white. Protocol data were submitted to statistical analysis by the chi-square test and by multiple conditional logistic regression analysis and the following conclusions were reached: 1) light skin color (types I and II of the Fitzpatrick classification), odds ratio of 2.8; outdoor work under constant sunlight, odds ratio of 5.0; the presence of actinic lesions due to exposure to the sun, odds ratio of 4.9, are risk factors perse. 2) Type III skin in the Fitzpatrick classification only represents a risk factor when the patient reports a history of intense sunburns, but not in the absence of such a history. 3) Sunburns per se do not represent a risk factor althorig the point made in item 2 of these conclusions is valid. 4) Other suspected risk factors whose significance was not confirmed by multiple conditioned logistic regression analysis were: residence in rural areas, light eyes and blond hair color, extent of the awareness of the "sun x skin cancer" relationship, familial occurrence of skin cancer, excessive exposure to the sun, and freckles appearing in childhood.

Maternal neurotic symptoms and infants' risk of developing persistent diarrhoea

A previously calculated predictive model for health risk selects infants who suffer 4-5 times more morbidity than their unselected peers. Preliminary results suggested that this risk is related to maternal neurotic symptomatology. To evaluate this hypothesis, 52 consecutive mothers whose infants had a positive predictive score (Group 1) and 52 in whom this was negative (Group 2) were evaluated by means of Goldberg's General Health Questionnaire (GHQ - 30). A total of 41.9% and 20.5% of the mothers in Groups 1 and 2, respectively, scored above 11 points in GHQ-30, established as the cut off point. It is concluded that among poor urban families in Santiago mothers of infants with high risk of persistent diarrhoea have increased frequency of detectable neurotic symptoms. New programs aimed at this type of infant should include psychological support for their mothers.

Poverty levels and children's health status: study of risk factors in an urban population of low socioeconomic level

To test the hypothesis that the low socioeconomic population living is shanty towns in Porto Alegre presents different levels of poverty which are reflected on its health status, a cross-sectional study was designed involving 477 families living in Vila Grande Cruzeiro, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The poverty level of the families was measured by using an instrument specifically designed for poor urban populations. Children from families living in extreme poverty (poorest quartile) were found to have higher infant mortality rate, lower birth weights, more hospitalizations, and higher malnutrition rates, in addition to belonging to more numerous families. Thus, the shanty town population of Porto Alegre is not homogeneous, and priority should be given to the more vulnerable subgroups.

Risk factors for perinatal mortality in an urban area of Southern Brazil, 1993

INTRODUCTION: Although there was a considerable reduction in infant mortality in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul in the last decade, its perinatal causes were reduced only by 28%. The associated factors of these causes were analised. MATERIAL AND METHOD: All hospital births and perinatal deaths were assessed by daily visits to all the maternity hospitals in the city, throughout 1993 and including the first week of 1994. RESULTS: The perinatal mortality rate was 22.1 per thousand births. The multivariate analysis showed the following risk factors: low socioeconomic level, male sex and maternal age above 35 years . Among multigravidae women, the fetal mortality rate was significantly increased for mothers with a previously low birthweight and a previous stillbirth. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: Main risk factors for perinatal mortality: low socioeconomic level, maternal age above 35 years and male sex. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight.

Valor preditivo do "Clinical Risk Index for Babies" para o risco de mortalidade neonatal

OBJETIVO: Comparar o valor preditivo do CRIB (Clinical Risk Index for Babies) para o risco de mortalidade neonatal ao peso de nascimento (PN) e idade gestacional (IG). MÉTODO: Numa coorte prospectiva foram estudados, durante o ano de 1996, 71 recém-nascidos admitidos na unidade de terapia intensiva, com PN < 1.500 g e/ou IG < 31 semanas. RESULTADOS: A taxa de mortalidade foi de 29,6%; para PN < 1.000 g ou IG < 29 semanas foi de 60%, enquanto que para o escore de CRIB > 10 foi de 100%. CONCLUSÕES: O escore de CRIB > 10 correspondeu a maiores especificidade e valor preditivo positivo em relação aos demais parâmetros. A área determinada pela "receiver operating characteristic" relativa ao CRIB também foi superior. O CRIB mostrou-se um marcador mais acurado na previsão de risco de mortalidade quando comparado ao PN ou IG isoladamente.

Risk factors for the increasing trend in low birth weight among live births born by vaginal delivery, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for low birth weight (LBW) among live births by vaginal delivery and to determine if the disappearance of the association between LBW and socioeconomic factors was due to confounding by cesarean section. METHODS: Data were obtained from two population-based cohorts of singleton live births in Ribeirão Preto, Southeastern Brazil. The first one comprised 4,698 newborns from June 1978 to May 1979 and the second included 1,399 infants born from May to August 1994. The risks for LBW were tested in a logistic model, including the interaction of the year of survey and all independent variables under analysis. RESULTS: The incidence of LBW among vaginal deliveries increased from 7.8% in 1978--79 to 10% in 1994. The risk was higher for: female or preterm infants; newborns of non-cohabiting mothers; newborns whose mothers had fewer prenatal visits or few years of education; first-born infants; and those who had smoking mothers. The interaction of the year of survey with gestational age indicated that the risk of LBW among preterm infants fell from 17.75 to 8.71 in 15 years. The mean birth weight decreased more significantly among newborns from qualified families, who also had the highest increase in preterm birth and non-cohabitation. CONCLUSIONS: LBW among vaginal deliveries increased mainly due to a rise in the proportion of preterm births and non-cohabiting mothers. The association between cesarean section and LBW tended to cover up socioeconomic differences in the likelihood of LBW. When vaginal deliveries were analyzed independently, these socioeconomic differences come up again.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Risk of drug interaction: combination of antidepressants and other drugs

OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of combination of antidepressants with other drugs and risk of drug interactions in the setting public hospital units in Brazil. METHODS: Prescriptions of all patients admitted to a public hospital from November 1996 to February 1997 were surveyed from the hospital's data processing center in São Paulo, Brazil. A manual search of case notes of all patients admitted to the psychiatric unit from January 1993 to December 1995 and all patients registered in the affective disorders outpatient clinic in December 1996 was carried out. Patients taking any antidepressant were identified and concomitant use of drugs was checked. By means of a software program (Micromedex®) drug interactions were identified. RESULTS: Out of 6,844 patients admitted to the hospital, 63 (0.9%) used antidepressants and 16 (25.3%) were at risk of drug interaction. Out of 311 patients in the psychiatric unit, 63 (20.2%) used antidepressants and 13 of them (20.6%) were at risk. Out of 87 patients in the affective disorders outpatient clinic, 43 (49.4%) took antidepressants and 7 (16.2%) were at risk. In general, the use of antidepressants was recorded in 169 patients and 36 (21.3%) were at risk of drug interactions. Twenty different forms of combinations at risk of drug interactions were identified: four were classified as mild, 15 moderate and one severe interaction. CONCLUSION: In the hospital general units the number of drug interactions per patient was higher than in the psychiatric unit; and prescription for depression was lower than expected.