Toxoplasma-IgM and IgG-avidity in single samples from areas with a high infection rate can determine the risk of mother-to-child transmission

Anti-Toxoplasma IgG-avidity was determined in 168 serum samples from IgG- and IgM-positive pregnant women at various times during pregnancy, in order to evaluate the predictive value for risk of mother-to-child transmission in a single sample, taking the limitations of conventional serology into account. The neonatal IgM was considered the serologic marker of transmission. Fluorometric tests for IgG, IgM (immunocapture) and IgG-avidity were performed. Fifty-one of the 128 pregnant women tested gave birth in the hospital and neonatal IgM was obtained. The results showed 32 (62.75%) pregnant women having high avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 2.4, and no infected newborn. Nineteen (37.25%) had low or inconclusive avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 11.9, and five infected newborns and one stillbirth. In two infected newborns and the stillbirth maternal IgM indexes were low and in one infected newborn the only maternal parameter that suggested fetal risk was IgG-avidity. In the present study, IgG-avidity performed in single samples from positive IgM pregnant women helped to determine the risk of transmission at any time during pregnancy, especially when the indexes of the two tests were analysed with respect to gestational age. This model may be less expensive in developing countries where there is a high prevalence of infection than the follow-up of susceptible mothers until childbirth with monthly serology, and it creates a new perspective for the diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis.

Spatial distribution of leprosy in areas of risk in Vitoria, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, 2005 to 2009

Introduction Leprosy remains a relevant public health issue in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of new cases of leprosy and to detect areas with higher risks of disease in the City of Vitória. Methods The study was ecologically based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, State of Espírito Santo between 2005 and 2009. The data sources used came from the available records of the State Health Secretary of Espírito Santo. A global and local empirical Bayesian method was used in the spatial analysis to produce a leprosy risk estimation, and the fluctuation effect was smoothed from the detection coefficients. Results The study used thematic maps to illustrate that leprosy is distributed heterogeneously between the neighborhoods and that it is possible to identify areas with high risk of disease. The Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.926 (p = 0.001) for the Local Method indicated highly correlated coefficients. The Moran index was calculated to evaluate correlations between the incidences of adjoining districts. Conclusions We identified the spatial contexts in which there were the highest incidence rates of leprosy in Vitória during the studied period. The results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, which can help establish more cost-effective control strategies because they indicate specific regions and priority planning activities that can interfere with the transmission chain.

Study of the risk factors related to acquisition of urinary tract infections in patients submitted to renal transplant

INTRODUCTION: Urinary tract infections (UTI) among transplant recipients are usually caused by gram-negative microorganisms and can provoke a high incidence of morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors associated with the acquisition of UTIs during the first year after renal transplantation. METHODS: Here, we report a single-center retrospective cohort study of 99 renal transplant patients followed for the first year after surgery. The definition of a UTI episode was a urine culture showing bacterial growth and leucocyturia when patients presented with urinary symptoms. The absence of infection (asymptomatic bacteriuria) was defined as an absence of symptoms with negative urine culture or bacterial growth with any number of colonies. RESULTS: Ninety-nine patients were included in the study. During the study, 1,847 urine cultures were collected, and 320 (17.3%) tested positive for bacterial growth. Twenty-six (26.2%) patients developed a UTI. The most frequent microorganisms isolated from patients with UTIs were Klebsiella pneumoniae (36%), with 33% of the strains resistant to carbapenems, followed by Escherichia coli (20%). There were no deaths or graft losses associated with UTI episodes. CONCLUSIONS: Among the UTI risk factors studied, the only one that was associated with a higher incidence of infection was female sex. Moreover, the identification of drug-resistant strains is worrisome, as these infections have become widespread globally and represent a challenge in the control and management of infections, especially in solid organ transplantation.

Cardiac Surgery Costs According to the Preoperative Risk in the Brazilian Public Health System

AbstractBackground:Heart surgery has developed with increasing patient complexity.Objective:To assess the use of resources and real costs stratified by risk factors of patients submitted to surgical cardiac procedures and to compare them with the values reimbursed by the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS).Method:All cardiac surgery procedures performed between January and July 2013 in a tertiary referral center were analyzed. Demographic and clinical data allowed the calculation of the value reimbursed by the Brazilian SUS. Patients were stratified as low, intermediate and high-risk categories according to the EuroSCORE. Clinical outcomes, use of resources and costs (real costs versus SUS) were compared between established risk groups.Results:Postoperative mortality rates of low, intermediate and high-risk EuroSCORE risk strata showed a significant linear positive correlation (EuroSCORE: 3.8%, 10%, and 25%; p < 0.0001), as well as occurrence of any postoperative complication EuroSCORE: 13.7%, 20.7%, and 30.8%, respectively; p = 0.006). Accordingly, length-of-stay increased from 20.9 days to 24.8 and 29.2 days (p < 0.001). The real cost was parallel to increased resource use according to EuroSCORE risk strata (R$ 27.116,00 ± R$ 13.928,00 versus R$ 34.854,00 ± R$ 27.814,00 versus R$ 43.234,00 ± R$ 26.009,00, respectively; p < 0.001). SUS reimbursement also increased (R$ 14.306,00 ± R$ 4.571,00 versus R$ 16.217,00 ± R$ 7.298,00 versus R$ 19.548,00 ± R$935,00; p < 0.001). However, as the EuroSCORE increased, there was significant difference (p < 0.0001) between the real cost increasing slope and the SUS reimbursement elevation per EuroSCORE risk strata.Conclusion:Higher EuroSCORE was related to higher postoperative mortality, complications, length of stay, and costs. Although SUS reimbursement increased according to risk, it was not proportional to real costs.

Malaria entomological risk factors in relation to land cover in the Lower Caura River Basin, Venezuela

To explore the effects of deforestation and resulting differences in vegetation and land cover on entomological parameters, such as anopheline species composition, abundance, biting rate, parity and entomological inoculation rate (EIR), three villages were selected in the Lower Caura River Basin, state of Bolívar, Venezuela. All-night mosquito collections were conducted between March 2008-January 2009 using CDC light traps and Mosquito Magnet(r) Liberty Plus. Human landing catches were performed between 06:00 pm-10:00 pm, when anophelines were most active. Four types of vegetation were identified. The Annual Parasite Index was not correlated with the type of vegetation. The least abundantly forested village had the highest anopheline abundance, biting rate and species diversity. Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles nuneztovari were the most abundant species and were collected in all three villages. Both species showed unique biting cycles. The more abundantly forested village of El Palmar reported the highest EIR. The results confirmed previous observations that the impacts of deforestation and resulting changes in vegetation cover on malaria transmission are complex and vary locally.

Social support, socioeconomic and clinical risk: comparison between to neighborhoods in a Brazilian upcountry town

The objective of this study was to compare the perceptions of two families living in two different neighborhoods (rated according to risk levels) regarding social support. A questionnaire was designed to assess social support according to the following dimensions: instrumental, emotional, religious, and support from friends, neighbors and family. The sample was comprised as follows: considering the 114 families living in neighborhood 1, 52 families were interviewed; and among the 162 families living in neighborhood 2, 60 families were interviewed. No significant difference was found related to instrumental, religious and emotional support, including the support from relatives among the families from both neighborhoods. The results disagree with the reviewed literature, which indicated a strong association between social support and families living at socioeconomic risk. In conclusion, social support is important for families, regardless of their risk stratification.

Systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia in relation to body mass index: evaluation of a Brazilian population

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia in a Brazilian population in relation to body mass index. METHOD: Retrospective evaluation of 1213 adults (mean age: 45.2 ± 12.8; 80.6% females) divided into groups according to body mass index [normal (18.5 - 24.4 kg/m²); overweight (25 - 29.9 kg/m²); grade 1 obesity (30 - 34.9 kg/m²); grade 2 obesity (35 - 39.9 kg/m²), and grade 3 obesity (> 40 kg/m²)]. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were analyzed in each group. The severity of cardiovascular risk was determined. High-risk patients were considered those reporting 2 or more of the following factors: systemic hypertension, HDL < 35 mg/dL, total cholesterol > 240 mg/dL, triglycerides > 200 mg/dL when HDL < 35 mg/dL, and glycemia > 126 mg/dL. Moderate-risk patients were those reporting 2 or more of the following factors: systemic hypertension, HDL < 45, triglycerides > 200 mg/dL, and total cholesterol > 200 mg/dL. RESULTS: The prevalence of systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypertriglyceridemia, and low HDL-cholesterol levels increased along with weight, but the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia did not. The odds ratio adjusted for gender and age, according to grade of obesity compared with patients with normal weight were respectively 5.9, 8.6, and 14.8 for systemic hypertension, 3.8, 5.8, and 9.2 for diabetes mellitus and 1.2, 1.3, and 2.6 for hypertriglyceridemia. We also verified that body mass index was positively related to cardiovascular high risk (P < .001) CONCLUSION: In our population, cardiovascular risk increased along with body mass index.

Comparison of catheter-related infection risk in two different long-term venous devices in adult hematology-oncology patients

PURPOSE: Infection is the leading complication of long-term central venous catheters, and its incidence may vary according to catheter type. The objective of this study was to compare the frequency and probability of infection between two types of long-term intravenous devices. METHODS: Retrospective study in 96 onco-hematology patients with partially implanted catheters (n = 55) or completely implanted ones (n = 42). Demographic data and catheter care were similar in both groups. Infection incidence and infection-free survival were used for the comparison of the two devices. RESULTS: In a median follow-up time of 210 days, the catheter-related infection incidence was 0.2102/100 catheter-days for the partially implanted devices and 0.0045/100 catheter-days for the completely implanted devices; the infection incidence rate was 46.7 (CI 95% = 6.2 to 348.8). The 1-year first infection-free survival ratio was 45% versus 97%, and the 1-year removal due to infection-free survival ratio was 42% versus 97% for partially and totally implanted catheters, respectively (P <.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSION: In the present study, the infection risk was lower in completely implanted devices than in partially implanted ones.

Lipid profile and cardiovascular risk in two Amazonian populations

OBJECTIVE: To compare the lipid profiles and coronary heart disease risks of 2 Brazilian Amazonian populations as follows: a riverside population (village of Vigia) and an urban population (city of Belém in the state of Pará). METHODS: Fifty individuals controlled for age and sex were assessed in each region, and the major risk factors for coronary heart disease were analyzed. RESULTS: According to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP III) and using the Framingham score, both populations had the same absolute risk of events (Vigia = 5.4 ± 1 vs Belém = 5.7 ± 1), although the population of Vigia had a lower consumption of saturated fat (P<0.0001), a greater consumption of mono- and polyunsaturated fat (P<0.03), in addition to lower values for body mass index (25.4± 0.6 vs 27.6 ± 0.7 kg/m², P<0.02), of biceps skin fold (18.6 ± 1.1 vs 27.5 ± 1.3 mm, P<0.0001), of triceps skin fold (28.7 ± 1.2 vs 37.3 ± 1.7 mm, P<0.002), and of total cholesterol (205 ± 5 vs 223 ± 6 mg/dL, P< 0.03) and triglycerides (119 ± 9 vs 177 ± 18 mg/dL, P<0.005). Both populations did not differ in regard to HDL-C (46 ± 1 vs 46 ± 1 mg/dL), LDL-C (135 ± 4 vs 144 ± 5 mg/dL) and blood pressure (SBP 124 ± 3 vs 128 ± 3 mmHg; DBP 80 ± 2 vs 82 ± 2 mmHg). CONCLUSION: The riverside and urban populations of Amazonia had similar cardiovascular risks. However, the marked difference in the variables studied suggests that different strategies of prevention should be applied.

Clinical outcome and risk factors related to extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Klebsiella spp. infection among hospitalized patients

Over the past two decades, nosocomial infections caused by extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Klebsiella spp. have become a major problem all around the world. This situation is of concern because there are limited antimicrobial options to treat patients infected with these pathogens, and also because this kind of resistance can spread to a wide variety of Gram-negative bacilli. Our objectives wereto evaluate among in-patients at a publicuniversity tertiary-care hospital with documented infection due to Klebsiella spp., which were the risk factors (cross-sectional analysis) and the clinical impact (prospective cohort) associated with an ESBL-producing strain. Study subjects were all patients admitted at the study hospital between April 2002 and October 2003, with a clinically and microbiologically confirmed infection caused by Klebsiella spp. at any body site, except infections restricted to the urinary tract. Of the 104 patients studied, 47 were infected with an ESBL-producing strain and 57 with a non-ESBL-producing strain. Independent risk factors associated with infection with an ESBL-producing strain were young age, exposure to mechanical ventilation, central venous catheter, use of any antimicrobial agent, and particularly use of a 4th generation cephalosporin or a quinolone. Length of stay was significant longer for patients infected with ESBL-producing strains than for those infected with non-ESBL-producing strains, although fatality rate was not significantly affected by ESBL-production in this cohort. In fact, mechanical ventilation and bacteremia were the only variables withindependent association withdeath detected in this investigation.

Analysis of multi-scale systemic risk in Brazil's financial market

This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Cardiovascular risk in middle-aged breast cancer survivors: a comparison between two risk models

PURPOSE: It was to assess the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer survivors (BCS).METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed 67 BCS, aged 45 -65 years, who underwent complete oncological treatment, but had not received hormone therapy, tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors during the previous 6 months. Lipid profile and CVD risk were evaluated, the latter using the Framingham and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) models. The agreement between cardiovascular risk models was analyzed by calculating a kappa coefficient and its 95% confidence interval (CI).RESULTS: Mean subject age was 53.2±6.0 years, with rates of obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia of 25, 34 and 90%, respectively. The most frequent lipid abnormalities were high total cholesterol (70%), high LDL-C (51%) and high non-HDL-C (48%) concentrations. Based on the Framingham score, 22% of the participants had a high risk for coronary artery disease. According to the SCORE model, 100 and 93% of the participants were at low risk for fatal CVD in populations at low and high risk, respectively, for CVD. The agreement between the Framingham and SCORE risk models was poor (kappa: 0.1; 95%CI 0.01 -0.2) for populations at high risk for CVD.CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate the need to include lipid profile and CVD risk assessment in the follow-up of BCS, focusing on adequate control of serum lipid concentrations.