DISPOSITION EFFECT AMONG BRAZILIAN EQUITY FUND MANAGERS

The disposition effect predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way are still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this article, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve it, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian equity funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted and regression models with qualitative dependent variables were estimated in order to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The results brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision-making process of the managers, but the hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed.

Inquerito por telefone: pesos de pos-estratificacao para corrigir vicios de baixa cobertura em Rio Branco, AC

OBJETIVO: Analisar efeitos do uso de pesos de pós-estratificação para corrigir vícios decorrentes da baixa cobertura de domicílios com telefone. MÉTODOS: Comparação dos resultados levantados pelo Inquérito Domiciliar com o Sistema de Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico (Vigitel), em Rio Branco, AC, 2007, cuja cobertura era de 40% de telefonia fixa. O vício potencial do Vigitel foi expresso pela diferença entre as prevalências do Vigitel e do Inquérito Domiciliar, calculada a raiz quadrática do erro quadrático médio como medida de acurácia da estimativa. RESULTADOS: O procedimento de ponderação do Vigitel corrigiu o vício potencial nas prevalências de consumo de frutas, legumes e verduras, de carnes com gordura visível, o ser fumante, a autoavaliação do estado de saúde ruim e da morbidade referida de colesterol ou triglicéride. O procedimento adotado pelo Vigitel não reduziu o vício nas prevalências da prática de atividade física no tempo livre e de morbidade referida de asma, bronquite asmática, bronquite crônica ou enfisema. CONCLUSÕES: É necessário o uso de métodos alternativos de ponderação e a estratégia de seleção de variáveis externas para construção de pesos de pós-estratificação que minimizem o vício potencial das estimativas das variáveis decorrentes da baixa cobertura de domicílios com telefone fixo.

Detection of Cryptococcus neoformans capsular polysaccharide antigen in asymptomatic HIV-infected patients

Serum samples from 242 HIV-positive persons were studied for the detection of capsular polysaccha-ride antigen of Cryptococcus neoformans; 193 of these patients presented less than 300 CD4+ cells/µl of blood and 49 patients had more than 300 CD4+ cells/µl. None of them had symptoms or signs characteristic of cryptococcosis. The capsular antigen of C. neofarmans was detected by latex agglutination technique with pronase pre-treatment (IMMY, Crypto-Latex Antigen Detection System, Immunomycologics Inc., OK, USA); in 61% of the samples, ELISA technique was also used (Premier, Cryptococcal Antigen, Meridian Diagnostic Inc., Cincinatti, Oh, USA). The comparative study of both methods showed that the results obtained were similar in 96.9% of the cases. The capsular antigen was detected in 13 out of 193 (6.7%) patients with less than 300 CD4+ cells/µl. Cryptococcosis was confirmed mycologically in 3 of these 13 cases (23%) by the isolation of C. neoformans in CSF or blood cultures. Three patients, who had presented negative results of both tests for capsular antigen, suffered disseminated cryptococcosis 4 to 8 months later. The predictive diagnostic value of capsular antigen detection of C. neoformans seems tobe low and we believe that it should not be done routinely in asymptomatic HIV-positive persons.