A New Model to Determine the Dispersion of Fatigue Damage Evaluations

Reliable predictions of remaining lives of civil or mechanical structures subjected to fatigue damage are very difficult to be made. In general, fatigue damage is extremely sensitive to the random variations of material mechanical properties, environment and loading. These variations may induce large dispersions when the structural fatigue life has to be predicted. Wirsching (1970) mentions dispersions of the order of 30 to 70 % of the mean calculated life. The presented paper introduces a model to estimate the fatigue damage dispersion based on known statistical distributions of the fatigue parameters (material properties and loading). The model is developed by expanding into Taylor series the set of equations that describe fatigue damage for crack initiation.

Genetic parameters and simultaneous selection for root yield, adaptability and stability of cassava genotypes

The objective of this work was to estimate genetic parameters and to evaluate simultaneous selection for root yield and for adaptability and stability of cassava genotypes. The effects of genotypes were assumed as fixed and random, and the mixed model methodology (REML/Blup) was used to estimate genetic parameters and the harmonic mean of the relative performance of genotypic values (HMRPGV), for simultaneous selection purposes. Ten genotypes were analyzed in a complete randomized block design, with four replicates. The experiment was carried out in the municipalities of Altamira, Santarém, and Santa Luzia do Pará in the state of Pará, Brazil, in the growing seasons of 2009/2010, 2010/2011, and 2011/2012. Roots were harvested 12 months after planting, in all tested locations. Root yield had low coefficients of genotypic variation (4.25%) and broad-sense heritability of individual plots (0.0424), which resulted in low genetic gain. Due to the low genotypic correlation (0.15), genotype classification as to root yield varied according to the environment. Genotypes CPATU 060, CPATU 229, and CPATU 404 stood out as to their yield, adaptability, and stability.

Determinants of vaccination after the Colombian health system reform

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of individual, household and healthcare system factors on poor children's use of vaccination after the reform of the Colombian health system. METHODS: A household survey was carried out in a random sample of insured poor population in Bogota, in 1999. The conceptual and analytical framework was based on the Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization. It considers two units of analysis for studying vaccination use and its determinants: the insured poor population, including the children and their families characteristics; and the health care system. Statistical analysis were carried out by chi-square test with 95% confidence intervals, multivariate regression models and Cronbach's alpha coefficient. RESULTS: The logistic regression analysis showed that vaccination use was related not only to population characteristics such as family size (OR=4.3), living area (OR=1.7), child's age (OR=0.7) and head-of-household's years of schooling (OR=0.5), but also strongly related to health care system features, such as having a regular health provider (OR=6.0) and information on providers' schedules and requirements for obtaining care services (OR=2.1). CONCLUSIONS: The low vaccination use and the relevant relationships to health care delivery systems characteristics show that there are barriers in the healthcare system, which should be assessed and eliminated. Non-availability of regular healthcare and deficient information to the population are factors that can limit service utilization.

Optimization of random amplified polymorphic DNA techniques for use in genetic studies of Cuban triatominae

Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique is a simple and reliable method to detect DNA polymorphism. Several factors can affect the amplification profiles, thereby causing false bands and non-reproducibility of assay. In this study, we analyzed the effect of changing the concentration of primer, magnesium chloride, template DNA and Taq DNA polymerase with the objective of determining their optimum concentration for the standardization of RAPD technique for genetic studies of Cuban Triatominae. Reproducible amplification patterns were obtained using 5 pmoL of primer, 2.5 mM of MgCl2, 25 ng of template DNA and 2 U of Taq DNA polymerase in 25 µL of the reaction. A panel of five random primers was used to evaluate the genetic variability of T. flavida. Three of these (OPA-1, OPA-2 and OPA-4) generated reproducible and distinguishable fingerprinting patterns of Triatominae. Numerical analysis of 52 RAPD amplified bands generated for all five primers was carried out with unweighted pair group method analysis (UPGMA). Jaccard's Similarity Coefficient data were used to construct a dendrogram. Two groups could be distinguished by RAPD data and these groups coincided with geographic origin, i.e. the populations captured in areas from east and west of Guanahacabibes, Pinar del Río. T. flavida present low interpopulation variability that could result in greater susceptibility to pesticides in control programs. The RAPD protocol and the selected primers are useful for molecular characterization of Cuban Triatominae.

Identification and differentiation of Candida species from pediatric patients by random amplified polymorphic DNA

Thirty-four Candida isolates were analyzed by random amplified polymorphic DNA using the primer OPG-10:24 Candida albicans; 4 Candida tropicalis; 2 Candida parapsilosis; 2 Candida dubliniensis; 1 Candida glabrata and 1 Candida krusei. The UPGMA-Pearson correlation coefficient was used to calculate the genetic distance between the different Candida groupings. Samples were classified as identical (correlation of 100%); highly related samples (90%); moderately related samples (80%) and unrelated samples (< 70%). The results showed that the RAPD proposed was capable of classifying the isolates coherently (such that same species were in the same dendrogram), except for two isolates of Candida parapsilosis and the positive control (Netherlands, 1973), probably because they are now recognized as three different species. Concerning the only fluconazole-resistant Candida tropicalis isolate with a genotype that was different to the others, the data were insufficient to affirm that the only difference was the sensitivity to fluconazole. We concluded that the Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA proposed might be used to confirm Candida species identified by microbiological methods.

Molecular characterization of Trypanosoma cruzi Mexican strains and their behavior in the mouse experimental model

INTRODUCTION: For a long time, the importance of Chagas disease in Mexico, where many regarded it as an exotic malady, was questioned. Considering the great genetic diversity among isolates of Trypanosoma cruzi, the importance of this biological characterization, and the paucity of information on the clinical and biological aspects of Chagas disease in Mexico, this study aimed to identify the molecular and biological characterization of Trypanosoma cruzi isolates from different endemic areas of this country, especially of the State of Jalisco. METHODS: Eight Mexican Trypanosoma cruzi strains were biologically and genetically characterized (PCR specific for Trypanosoma cruzi, multiplex-PCR, amplification of space no transcript of the genes of the mini-exon, amplification of polymorphic regions of the mini-exon, classification by amplification of intergenic regions of the spliced leader genes, RAPD - (random amplified polymorphic DNA). RESULTS: Two profiles of parasitaemia were observed, patent (peak parasitaemia of 4.6×10(6) to 10(7) parasites/mL) and subpatent. In addition, all isolates were able to infect 100% of the animals. The isolates mainly displayed tropism for striated (cardiac and skeletal) muscle. PCR amplification of the mini-exon gene classified the eight strains as TcI. The RAPD technique revealed intraspecies variation among isolates, distinguishing strains isolated from humans and triatomines and according to geographic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The Mexican T. cruzi strains are myotrophic and belong to group TcI.

Food consumption of adolescents. A simplified questionnaire for evaluating cardiovascular risk

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simplified questionnaire for self-evaluation by adolescents of foods associated with the risk of coronary diseases. METHODS: Frequency questionnaires about 80 foods were answered by representative samples of 256 adolescents aged 12 to 19 from Rio de Janeiro as part of the Nutrition and Health Research project. The dependent variable was the serum cholesterol predicting equation as influenced by diet, and the independent variables were the foods. The variables were normalized and, using Pearson's correlation coefficient, those with r>0.10 were selected for the regression model. The model was analyzed for sex, age, random sample, and total calories. Those food products that explained 85% of the cholesterol variation equation were present in the caloric model, and contained trans fatty acids were selected for the questionnaire. RESULTS: Sixty-five food products had a statistically significant correlation (P<0.001) with the dependent variable. The simplified questionnaire included 9 food products present in all tested models: steak or broiled meat, hamburger, full-fat cheese, French fries or potato chips, whole milk, pies or cakes, cookies, sausages, butter or margarine. The limit of the added food points for self-evaluation was 100, and over 120 points was considered excessive. CONCLUSION: The scores given to the food products and the criteria for the evaluation of the consumption limits enabled the adolescents to get to know and to balance their intake.

Use of the swat model for hydro-sedimentologic simulation in a small rural watershed

Mathematical models have great potential to support land use planning, with the goal of improving water and land quality. Before using a model, however, the model must demonstrate that it can correctly simulate the hydrological and erosive processes of a given site. The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was developed in the United States to evaluate the effects of conservation agriculture on hydrological processes and water quality at the watershed scale. This model was initially proposed for use without calibration, which would eliminate the need for measured hydro-sedimentologic data. In this study, the SWAT model was evaluated in a small rural watershed (1.19 km²) located on the basalt slopes of the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, where farmers have been using cover crops associated with minimum tillage to control soil erosion. Values simulated by the model were compared with measured hydro-sedimentological data. Results for surface and total runoff on a daily basis were considered unsatisfactory (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient - NSE < 0.5). However simulation results on monthly and annual scales were significantly better. With regard to the erosion process, the simulated sediment yields for all years of the study were unsatisfactory in comparison with the observed values on a daily and monthly basis (NSE values < -6), and overestimated the annual sediment yield by more than 100 %.

NUTRIENT RECOMMENDATION MODEL FOR CARROT CROP – FERTICALC CARROT

ABSTRACT The literature on fertilization for carrot growing usually recommends nutrient application rates for yield expectations lower than the yields currently obtained. Moreover, the recommendation only considers the results of soil chemical analysis and does not include effects such as crop residues or variations in yield levels. The aim of this study was to propose a fertilizer recommendation system for carrot cultivation (FERTICALC Carrot) which includes consideration of the nutrient supply by crop residues, variation in intended yield, soil chemical properties, and the growing season (winter or summer). To obtain the data necessary for modeling nutritional requirements, 210 carrot production stands were sampled in the region of Alto Paranaíba, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The dry matter content of the roots, the coefficient of biological utilization of nutrients in the roots, and the nutrient harvest index for summer and winter crops were determined for these samples. To model the nutrient supply by the soil, the literature was surveyed in regard to this theme. A modeling system was developed for recommendation of macronutrients and B. For cationic micronutrients, the system only reports crop nutrient export and extraction. The FERTICALC which was developed proved to be efficient for fertilizer recommendation for carrot cultivation. Advantages in relation to official fertilizer recommendation tables are continuous variation of nutrient application rates in accordance with soil properties and in accordance with data regarding the extraction efficiency of modern, higher yielding cultivars.

Designs and model effects definitions in the initial stage of a plant breeding program

The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after conventional and reduced tillage described by an exponential decay in time model

To study Assessing the impact of tillage practices on soil carbon losses dependents it is necessary to describe the temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after tillage. It has been argued that large amounts of CO2 emitted after tillage may serve as an indicator for longer-term changes in soil carbon stocks. Here we present a two-step function model based on soil temperature and soil moisture including an exponential decay in time component that is efficient in fitting intermediate-term emission after disk plow followed by a leveling harrow (conventional), and chisel plow coupled with a roller for clod breaking (reduced) tillage. Emission after reduced tillage was described using a non-linear estimator with determination coefficient (R²) as high as 0.98. Results indicate that when emission after tillage is addressed it is important to consider an exponential decay in time in order to predict the impact of tillage in short-term emissions.

Auger-type granular fertylizer distributor: matemathical model and dynamic simulation

The objective of this study was to model mathematically and to simulate the dynamic behavior of an auger-type fertilizer applicator (AFA) in order to use the variable-rate application (VRA) and reduce the coefficient of variation (CV) of the application, proposing an angular speed controller θ' for the motor drive shaft. The input model was θ' and the response was the fertilizer mass flow, due to the construction, density of fertilizer, fill factor and the end position of the auger. The model was used to simulate a control system in open loop, with an electric drive for AFA using an armature voltage (V A) controller. By introducing a sinusoidal excitation signal in V A with amplitude and delay phase optimized and varying θ' during an operation cycle, it is obtained a reduction of 29.8% in the CV (constant V A) to 11.4%. The development of the mathematical model was a first step towards the introduction of electric drive systems and closed loop control for the implementation of AFA with low CV in VRA.

Effective diffusivity and convective mass transfer coefficient during the drying of bananas

In this article, a methodology is used for the simultaneous determination of the effective diffusivity and the convective mass transfer coefficient in porous solids, which can be considered as an infinite cylinder during drying. Two models are used for optimization and drying simulation: model 1 (constant volume and diffusivity, with equilibrium boundary condition), and model 2 (constant volume and diffusivity with convective boundary condition). Optimization algorithms based on the inverse method were coupled to the analytical solutions, and these solutions can be adjusted to experimental data of the drying kinetics. An application of optimization methodology was made to describe the drying kinetics of whole bananas, using experimental data available in the literature. The statistical indicators enable to affirm that the solution of diffusion equation with convective boundary condition generates results superior than those with the equilibrium boundary condition.